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SNE to flood eBay with 13,000 slabs?

Started by BlowUpTheMoon,

490 posts in this topic

ShowcaseNE

ShowcaseNE

Posted
Posted
The economics of collecting is a whole different issue than I have addressed.

 

If you want to focus on economics.....than no one should by any comic book, for any price (aside from the factors you mention) as they are in dollar denomintaed assets. The dollar is worth half of what it was in 2002. If your book(s) has doubled in price since than, inflation adjusted it is actually woth less (because you are not supposed to ignore the capital gains tax that you would pay on the inlated value of the book). Before taxes......comics have lost 20% of their value alone this year.

 

This a trend in the United States, in my opinion, that is permanent and structural in nature. For what it is worth, my professional background is in economics and finance (being an MBA, CPA and ex Wall Streeter)

 

But as I said...my focus this evening ignored the economics of collecting.

 

This statement is incorrect. The dollar, as compared to major international currencies, is worth half of what it was in '03. The dollar, in real dollar value adjusted for inflation, is NOT worth half of what it was worth in '03.

 

I don't want to get into a discusssion about economics all that much.....But comparing the dollar to a basket of global currencies is the correct and appropriate method to measure the dollar.

 

The inflation adjusted method, or index, released by the US Government is not a realistic measure. It is similar to the same type of goofy measure that Wall Street uses when they compare portfolio returns to the S & P index. Both fraudulent comparisons in my opinion because they ignore real pricing in a global market.

 

If you think it is useful, try using it as defense when then the price of oil (a global commodity in which the price is set by world markets, as reflected by "the basket" of currencies) goes to 200...$300 and higher as the dollar devalues.

 

You have it backwards. If you live in the U.S., the correct measure of the value of the dollar is in terms of U.S. prices. The price level is about 20 percent higher now than it was at the beginning of 2002. The price level is lower today than it was a year ago. That the value of the dollar has declined against the euro and other currencies is interesting if you happen to be a European comic collector buying from U.S. dealers (or, for that matter, a U.S. collector buying from European dealers), but otherwise is irrelevant to evaluating the value of U.S. comics to U.S. collectors. "But comparing the dollar to a basket of global currencies is the correct and appropriate method to measure the dollar." This statement makes no sense unless your local supermarkets, department stores, and services stations have started pricing in euros.

 

The "value" of the dollar to anyone living in the United States is determined by the amount of goods and services the dollar can buy, which is affected by the declining exchange value of the dollar only to the extent that the dollar price of imports rises.

 

Oil is currently at $78. It could go to $300, I suppose, because anything is possible. The chances of that happening within the next decade, though, are vanishingly small.

 

Lets agree to disagreee. One of us is missing the point and doesn't know it.

 

Let me finish with this...natural resources are a key ingredient in the factors of production.

 

CPA to CPA I don't think you're giving everyone else enough credit because I don't think anyone is missing that point at all. Certainly in this day and age of many things being priced globally it is impossible for a falling dollar as compared to other currencies to not affect, at least somewhat, the amount of goods and services that can be bought with that dollar. But its not the direct, 1:1 relationship you're making it out to be. There are components of goods and services sourced outside of the country. There are components sourced inside. Point is a 20% drop in the US dollar does not equate to a 20% reduction in its value *from the pov of someone who mostly earns and spends US dollars*. There will be a reduction sure. Can't buy as many TVs designed in japan and made in china with components from five different countries. But it isn't a 20% reduction, not by a long shot.

 

I understand and agree with most all you said...but I come to a different conclusion.

 

I understand that you feel the appropriate way to measure the dollar is in some type of US based inflation index.

 

The rest of the world, however, measures the value of our dollar differently. I happen to believe that the global measure is the correct measure.

 

As time goes on I believe the global measure of the dollar, and the US measure of the dollar will converge in favor of the global version.

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RockMyAmadeus

RockMyAmadeus

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I do think, however, that they are collectible at a certain price. Personally, I think the ten thousand (or whatever it is) or so that you would pay for a set of Spidy's in 9.8 from 200 to 441 will be worth more in the long run than the same amount of money spent on a single, early digit Spidy for the same price.

 

Yes, you're probably right, but...you run into issues of storage, and case degradation, etc. I can store those books easily in a single long box raw. But that same set would be about 8 (someone correct me if I'm wrong) CGC boxes. And instead of protecting one case/book from damage, you now have to protect 242.

 

I have bought a lot of collections.....I think you would be amazed at just how few of them can be graded in the 9.8 range. There are a lot of NM modern collections out there. My experience, however, is that the majority of them are not worth buying because, while nm, they are just not nice enough.

 

You don't know who I am, and that's cool, cause I'm really a behind the scenes nobody. But I am one of the very last people who would be "amazed" at how few, as a percentage of extant copies, 9.8 copies exist. I understand, truly.

 

I agree with you, it is very difficult to find 9.8s "in the wild." I'm of the opinion that, even in a long box filled with potential 9.8s, even bagged and boarded, after a day on the floor of a major convention, being pawed through by everyone under the sun, more than half those books will no longer be 9.8s.

 

And local stores? If you're lucky and get to look at the collection when it comes in, maybe. But if it spends any time being "processed", either by store staff, or sitting out for sale, forget it.

 

But even still, there are a handful of collectors who very carefully picked out new and back issues, and very carefully preserved them over the years, and there were enough of "us" to totally saturate the 9.8 market for years to come.

 

And, better still, there are these warehouses...like Fantasy Distribution...who had long box after long box of untouched material simply waiting for someone like you, or Lange's, or Koch, to swoop down and pick them all up as a unit, thereby preserving the books...untouched...until they could be deposited at CGC.

 

I will relay some statistics, and I preface this (to everyone else) by saying this is not bragging, it's not to toot my own horn, it's just to illustrate a point. I have sent in several New Mutants #98s from my collection (I use NM #98 because it is one of the very few "keys" from the period.). I bought 15 when they were brand new, off the shelves, and about 10 more over the years beyond that. Of the original 15, I pre-screened myself 7 of those, and sent them in at a 9.8 pre-screen. I also pre-screened, out of the copies I bought later, another 1 and sent it in. So of the 8 I sent in at a 9.8 pre-screen, 7 came back 9.8, and the last was rejected. I sent that last one back in again, under another 9.8 pre-screen, and it came back a 9.8...without being pressed or otherwise fiddled with in the interim.

 

Of the remaining 8 original copies, all of them could easily be pressed into 9.8s, and remembering that I pre-screened them myself, so some of them may be "9.8s" already.

 

So, of the 8 copies I sent in, 8 came back 9.8s (or "9", depending on how you count the re-sub.) And 7 of them were copies I very, very carefully selected the week they were new, and bagged and boarded them, and they sat in a box from December of 1990 until October of 2008.

 

Of the 23 copies of Batman #428 on the census, 4 of them were my subs. Of the 28 copies of Batman #427 on the census, 8 of them...or nearly 30% of the 9.8s...were submitted by me personally.

 

However...those came from a pool of over 50+ copies each that I own, and acquired over (at the time) 18-19 years. I wasn't buying comics when those books came out (Sept-Oct 1988), so I had to very carefully pick back issues over the years...and it's not easy, not at all. It was far, far easier for me to get brand new 9.8s, because that was my default. If I HAD been buying comics at the time, my numbers would be much higher for those books.

 

Imagine if I had been 10 years older, and did the same thing starting in 1980?

 

Now realize that there WERE people just like me...not many, but certainly a handful...who did just that. When you take those people into account, plus the warehouses, plus the random people who just took care of their books after reading them, you end up with a lot of 9.8 potential books.

 

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slym2none

slym2none

Posted
Posted
If I remember correctly...Marvel printed some 50 million books in the 60's.....so if the majority of them weren't destroyed...where are they?

They all ended up in the dump.

 

The LCS I used to work for probably has a half-million DC & Marvels from the 60's in their back room. Some of the boxes are holding up the roof, I'd swear. None of them would grade better than a 3.0 IMHO, but there you are.

 

 

 

-slym

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RockMyAmadeus

RockMyAmadeus

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Here's another story that illustrates my point.

 

I spent the greater part of two weeks going through a fantastic find earlier this year. There is a "dollar" bookstore near me, and everything there...including the comics...is $1. Now, as you might imagine, the vast majority of these books is trash, not worth 10 cents each.

 

But for some unknown reason, they received about 2000 books, in 10 packs, of early 80's (1980-1984) books that were clearly warehouse packs. New Mutants #4-10, What If #35, Thor #338 were all heavily represented. The amazing thing was, there were oodles of potential 9.8 copies.

 

Now, knowing that these books wouldn't last a week on the shelf of this bookstore, I begged the owners to let me set those books aside so I could go through them and pre-screen them myself. Since these...wonderful...people forced me to pay $1 each, I had to pre-screen out only 9.8 potential copies. Anything else would have been a total waste of money...and even at $1 each, I was annoyed with the price I was paying.

 

So, I spent about 40 hours over two weeks' time carefully selecting the books. The result was about 200 9.8 (or better) candidates of some nice early 80's Marvels. Two of them, a Thor #338 and #339 now reside in 9.8 SS slabs, having been signed by Walt Simonson in Feb at the NY Comiccon.

 

Sadly, the rest...including the ones that could have been pressed to 9.8...were destroyed over the following weeks, as they sat on shelves and were pawed through by the uncaring customers of the store.

 

But it illustrates that these books ARE out there. Are there going to be 1,000 9.8s of any one book? Outside of Wolvie #1, X-Men #1, and Spidey #1, probably not. But will there be more than enough to satisfy current demand? Sadly, there will.

 

 

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ShowcaseNE

ShowcaseNE

Posted
Posted
I do think, however, that they are collectible at a certain price. Personally, I think the ten thousand (or whatever it is) or so that you would pay for a set of Spidy's in 9.8 from 200 to 441 will be worth more in the long run than the same amount of money spent on a single, early digit Spidy for the same price.

 

Yes, you're probably right, but...you run into issues of storage, and case degradation, etc. I can store those books easily in a single long box raw. But that same set would be about 8 (someone correct me if I'm wrong) CGC boxes. And instead of protecting one case/book from damage, you now have to protect 242.

 

I have bought a lot of collections.....I think you would be amazed at just how few of them can be graded in the 9.8 range. There are a lot of NM modern collections out there. My experience, however, is that the majority of them are not worth buying because, while nm, they are just not nice enough.

 

You don't know who I am, and that's cool, cause I'm really a behind the scenes nobody. But I am one of the very last people who would be "amazed" at how few, as a percentage of extant copies, 9.8 copies exist. I understand, truly.

 

I agree with you, it is very difficult to find 9.8s "in the wild." I'm of the opinion that, even in a long box filled with potential 9.8s, even bagged and boarded, after a day on the floor of a major convention, being pawed through by everyone under the sun, more than half those books will no longer be 9.8s.

 

And local stores? If you're lucky and get to look at the collection when it comes in, maybe. But if it spends any time being "processed", either by store staff, or sitting out for sale, forget it.

 

But even still, there are a handful of collectors who very carefully picked out new and back issues, and very carefully preserved them over the years, and there were enough of "us" to totally saturate the 9.8 market for years to come.

 

And, better still, there are these warehouses...like Fantasy Distribution...who had long box after long box of untouched material simply waiting for someone like you, or Lange's, or Koch, to swoop down and pick them all up as a unit, thereby preserving the books...untouched...until they could be deposited at CGC.

 

I will relay some statistics, and I preface this (to everyone else) by saying this is not bragging, it's not to toot my own horn, it's just to illustrate a point. I have sent in several New Mutants #98s from my collection (I use NM #98 because it is one of the very few "keys" from the period.). I bought 15 when they were brand new, off the shelves, and about 10 more over the years beyond that. Of the original 15, I pre-screened myself 7 of those, and sent them in at a 9.8 pre-screen. I also pre-screened, out of the copies I bought later, another 1 and sent it in. So of the 8 I sent in at a 9.8 pre-screen, 7 came back 9.8, and the last was rejected. I sent that last one back in again, under another 9.8 pre-screen, and it came back a 9.8...without being pressed or otherwise fiddled with in the interim.

 

Of the remaining 8 original copies, all of them could easily be pressed into 9.8s, and remembering that I pre-screened them myself, so some of them may be "9.8s" already.

 

So, of the 8 copies I sent in, 8 came back 9.8s (or "9", depending on how you count the re-sub.) And 7 of them were copies I very, very carefully selected the week they were new, and bagged and boarded them, and they sat in a box from December of 1990 until October of 2008.

 

Of the 23 copies of Batman #428 on the census, 4 of them were my subs. Of the 28 copies of Batman #427 on the census, 8 of them...or nearly 30% of the 9.8s...were submitted by me personally.

 

However...those came from a pool of over 50+ copies each that I own, and acquired over (at the time) 18-19 years. I wasn't buying comics when those books came out (Sept-Oct 1988), so I had to very carefully pick back issues over the years...and it's not easy, not at all. It was far, far easier for me to get brand new 9.8s, because that was my default. If I HAD been buying comics at the time, my numbers would be much higher for those books.

 

Imagine if I had been 10 years older, and did the same thing starting in 1980?

 

Now realize that there WERE people just like me...not many, but certainly a handful...who did just that. When you take those people into account, plus the warehouses, plus the random people who just took care of their books after reading them, you end up with a lot of 9.8 potential books.

 

Your experience is exactly my experience......couldn't have said it better.

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RockMyAmadeus

RockMyAmadeus

Posted
Posted
If I remember correctly...Marvel printed some 50 million books in the 60's.....so if the majority of them weren't destroyed...where are they?

 

 

And as the 70's and 80's go....in the early 90's we couldn't sell the tens of thousands (perhaps hundreds of thousands in total) to any one. In the early 90's we had 13 comic book stores within a 10 mile radius. I couldn't give them away, even to them

 

They all ended up in the dump.

 

Who are you responding to? I'm not the one who said 60's books weren't destroyed.

 

But as for 60's books, it's a pretty easy breakdown. Half the printruns were returns, and were destroyed or "destroyed", depending on how you look at remaindered copies.

 

Of the remaining half, about 80% were read, then tossed. So, about 10% of the printruns of Silver Age Marvels remains today, on average. And Marvels were collected (kept) more than other companies' books.

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DarkKnightReturns

DarkKnightReturns

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Posted
Wow... epic quote function fail.....

 

lol

 

And I have seen WW, but it was YEARS ago..... sorry I didn't remember that. My mom used to say that a lot to me as a kid.

 

 

 

-slym (lives and was born & raised in NC) ;)

 

ahh dam alcohol making me mess up quotes. this is the second time you've busted me for this fk up today :o

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Mr 9.8

Mr 9.8

Posted
Posted
Showcase,

 

What day are the auctions starting?

 

If you have any Deadpool or GI Joe books in there... or even Marvel 2099 titles... you have my money!

 

Some of us enjoy collecting the books from our youth (thumbs u

+1 I know I'll be buying.
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namisgr

namisgr

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Hard to imagine how a find of 13,000 ultra high grade books of recent vintage helps the supposition that books of this recent vintage will become highly valued in the future...

 

And another thing: has anyone considered the possibility that there may be many MORE than 13,000 ultra high grade books in this California warehouse? How about this, Dan?

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Old Fashion PB and J

Old Fashion PB and J

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Posted
Hard to imagine how a find of 13,000 ultra high grade books of recent vintage helps the supposition that books of this recent vintage will become highly valued in the future...

 

And another thing: has anyone considered the possibility that there may be many MORE than 13,000 ultra high grade books in this California warehouse? How about this, Dan?

 

Agreed.

 

And no.

 

Slab prices are sure to sky rocket with this find :ohnoez:

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Sqeggs

Sqeggs

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Posted

The dealers in 1970s threw out the books from the 1960s?? Man, you must not have been alive then because by 1965, nobody was throwing out any Marvel or DC. Hell, books from the 1960s made up most of the business for dealers in the 1970s. Anything that people thought had the remotest chance of being another FF1, ASM1, of AF15 was stockpiled to the rafters. If everybody threw out 1960s books, why are there are so many post-1965 high grade books around?

 

Well....

 

That's true to an extent, but not entirely...

 

Remember, there were massive piles of books like Superboy floating around in the 1970's that NO one wanted. Keeping in mind that Superboy was the #2 selling book for at least a handful of years in the 1960's, there would be quite a bit that were tossed out because they took up too much space, and were worthless junk (and still are.)

 

And remember, this was the 70's, not the 90's. People still routinely threw out comics on a grand scale back then.

 

People, yeah; dealers, no. It is true that were a lot of DC that people didn't see as collectible -- Bob Hope, Jerry Lewis, Sugar and Spike, and so on -- but people weren't throwing out Superboy. They were available cheap, but they weren't being thrown out.

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