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Started by etanick,

3,535 posts in this topic

lou_fine

lou_fine

Posted
Posted
On 10/1/2022 at 5:34 PM, bpc3qh said:

With prices dropping like this I'm scared I might once again be forced into considering pulling the trigger on a low grade copy.

Well, if prices are indeed heading in your favor, you might even be able to pick up a higher graded copy than you had expected for your money.  (thumbsu

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Bluemedgroup

Bluemedgroup

Posted
Posted
On 9/28/2022 at 7:35 AM, spreads said:

I get all that, but it's still absurd....auction houses are doing very, very little.  I would say there's less complexity here than selling any other comparable asset: real estate, issuing a prospectus for a fund, etc.  These items should be commissioned in the 3-5% range, and if there are credit card fees associated with it then charge an extra 1-2%.  

Playing devil's advocate here, but if you can get away with charging that commission and customers keep coming back, business better than ever, then why would you ever lower your fees?  

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Sweet Lou 14

Sweet Lou 14

Posted
Posted
On 10/6/2022 at 8:56 AM, Bluemedgroup said:

Playing devil's advocate here, but if you can get away with charging that commission and customers keep coming back, business better than ever, then why would you ever lower your fees?  

Right.  Whatever something (a physical item or a service) "should" cost, it's only the free market that would make it so.

While I don't think the auction houses are literally colluding on this, the 10% commission has become such an established standard that it's hard to break them of it.

It should be noted that there are other online sellers who advertise lower commissions -- MCS has a nice model, and there are some others that go as low as 1% -- but the only way those win out is if the market decides that selling a book through those channels will net the seller a higher take than if they sell through the auction houses and pay through the nose.

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kimik

kimik

Posted
Posted
On 10/1/2022 at 7:58 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

Do it while you can this will not last. May take some time but will not last.

Looking at GPA for a number of key books across different grades, it appears they the market on most is just erasing the Covid spike and going back to more normalized levels. As a result, I am starting to think that it will take a a long while for prices to come back to that peak, and there is likely still room for prices to pull back further (especially if continued interest rate increases = global recession). 

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KCOComics

KCOComics

Posted
Posted
On 10/9/2022 at 12:11 PM, kimik said:

Looking at GPA for a number of key books across different grades, it appears they the market on most is just erasing the Covid spike and going back to more normalized levels. As a result, I am starting to think that it will take a a long while for prices to come back to that peak, and there is likely still room for prices to pull back further (especially if continued interest rate increases = global recession). 

I agree with this. 

I'm not sure if all the Covid gains will be erased, but I do expect a return to a more normal market. You won't see a rapid and crazy recovery back to peak prices. 

 

 

 

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spreads

spreads

Posted
Posted
On 10/9/2022 at 12:11 PM, kimik said:

Looking at GPA for a number of key books across different grades, it appears they the market on most is just erasing the Covid spike and going back to more normalized levels. As a result, I am starting to think that it will take a a long while for prices to come back to that peak, and there is likely still room for prices to pull back further (especially if continued interest rate increases = global recession). 

Correct, and I think a number of us were mentioning this.  There will be collectors that won't be impacted, but with inflation running high single digits and increasing interest rates affecting everything from cost of living to investment returns, a comic ranks very low (if not the bottom) in priority. 

There will be sellers forced to sell, we've seen more and more of this - 'group sales' of collectors dumping a bunch of keys.  You've been a dealer for a long time in a cyclical economy, I'm sure you've seen your fair share of feast or famine, and have probably encountered these depressed selling, no?

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kimik

kimik

Posted
Posted
On 10/12/2022 at 6:41 AM, spreads said:

Correct, and I think a number of us were mentioning this.  There will be collectors that won't be impacted, but with inflation running high single digits and increasing interest rates affecting everything from cost of living to investment returns, a comic ranks very low (if not the bottom) in priority. 

There will be sellers forced to sell, we've seen more and more of this - 'group sales' of collectors dumping a bunch of keys.  You've been a dealer for a long time in a cyclical economy, I'm sure you've seen your fair share of feast or famine, and have probably encountered these depressed selling, no?

I am a collector that likes to speculate/sell part time as well (mostly to generate funds to buy more books or cover grading fees), so my view point is a bit different from a true dealer that needs to make a living off of comics. I would not consider dealers selling books on the way up or the way down as being forced to sell. This is their livelihood so they need to keep cashflow coming in. I would view the new wave of speculators that entered the market the past two years as being the ones most likely to need to do group/forced sales as their involvement in the hobby is transitory to begin with.

While there have seemingly been market run ups and plateaus/pull backs every 4 or 5 years since I have been buying (and later selling) online since 1997, this one looks like it is going to be a 10+ year type spike. If you look at GPA records, the Covid spike and drop is noticeable for almost all books (except for a handful like Marvel Super-Heroes #13 lol ). I am curious to see what the final level that keys re-settle at this time around. It should be higher than pre-Covid levels, but how much higher is the question.

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CycleGirl

CycleGirl

Posted
Posted (edited)

Not saying anything that people don't know, but every type of asset has come down in value (stocks, bonds, comics, crypto...). I think it's fair to say that the most speculative - things like Bitcoin and collectibles - are going to fall the most when the money supply tightens instead of expands. Below is the US M2 money supply. It peaked at the end of 2021. Right now, the Fed is literally pulling billions of dollars out of the system and it's showing up everywhere. People are less likely to buy super expensive comics when their stock portfolio is down 30% and borrowing costs have doubled.

 

 

image.png.a344f378f21c8fa587566bb1ba8fc4ed.png

 

Who knows when prices will rebound, but I do think that the Fed will have to change course in 2023 or 2024. Recession seems inevitable the way things are going. If a person has cash, it's going to be a good time to buy these next several months, I think. Always with a long-term view!

Edited by CycleGirl
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Pantodude

Pantodude

Posted
Posted (edited)

If you are relying on an actual change in the money supply for your argument, Houston, we have a problem.  The money supply remains higher now than it was end of 2021!  Did you even look at your own chart?  :)  Even now, 10 months after supposed tapering by the Fed, it remains as high as it's ever been (in the $21.75 trillion range).  So it looks like the money supply will remain well above early 2020 money supply levels, if not near the peak, for quite some time. (shrug)  One could argue these enduring high money supply levels will coax folks to continue spending.  Here's a better chart with specific numbers through August:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m2

United States Money Supply M2

Edited by Pantodude
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CycleGirl

CycleGirl

Posted
Posted (edited)

Yes, well, a trillion dollars isn't what it used to be! :kidaround:  I would still argue that the money supply is significantly shrinking relative to its buying power in 2022. Plus, the cost of borrowing has about doubled, so it's not easy to leverage one's existing assets to acquire more.

What I'm saying is that I don't think that comics have lost any of their long-term appeal. I believe that the current value stagnation is due to the macro affect that stocks, bonds, real estate and every other asset class is experiencing. I wouldn't expect the trend to change until the macro environment changes and that can't happen until the Fed eases up on their current policy of general demand destruction. 

Edited by CycleGirl
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