When will/will the WALKING DEAD bubble burst? 7 7

[The-Collector]

If you find the show so boring, stop watching.

 

I intend to do just that. I'm tired of this group never making what I'll call any "forward progress". It's the same plots endlessly recycled. Add a bunch of members so you can have a blood bath killing them off. Kill people in ever more gruesome ways. About the time the group settles in and starts doing something constructive, have some major calamity and scatter them all over the country side - so you can have them find each other again and start over.

 

It's not boring. It's senseless and stupid. The groups do so many stupid things trying to list them all would be work.

 

For instance. Last time Rick's group drew the Governor's people into the prison and kicked their asses. Should have wiped them out, but that is a different issue. Sunday, they stand along the fences guns blazing. The Governor had already announced he wanted the place intact. So retreat inside and wait. It isn't safe for he and his people to stand outside the fence for days, so he'll either come in or go away. At some point the Gov's people have to try to take the prison from the inside, one cell block at a time. Advantage to Rick's team.

 

And of course a good rifle and a scope could have taken the Gov out and the remaining people probably would have taken the offer to coexist.

 

Then Rick goes mano a mano with the Governor as he walks past the bus he's hiding behind. That no one else notices is stupid too. What, they all forgot he was behind the bus?? But that's not quite as stupid as Rick - who gets the absolute snot beat out of him. Here is a suggestion Rick: He just cut off Hershel's head and he's leading a small army. Shoot the SOB in the back as he walks by. At this point, Rick's kid is smarter and a better leader than his old man.

 

I'm done. But it won't affect the comic book prices, as I don't read or purchase them.

 

So basically you don't like the show, you wont buy or read the book, and you're spending time writing in a walking dead thread?

 

Such gall! Imagine the absolute audacity and steely nerve of someone who doesn't like something voicing that dislike!

[Tony S]

If you find the show so boring, stop watching.

 

So basically you don't like the show, you wont buy or read the book, and you're spending time writing in a walking dead thread?

 

Such gall! Imagine the absolute audacity and steely nerve of someone who doesn't like something voicing that dislike!

 

Watching the show with my wife and daughter I came to enjoy the show. Until the last few episodes this had been what I thought the most sensible and therefore - for me - the most interesting season.

 

They settled in enough to start doing some things you would expect to be done. A counsel was formed for decision making. They started farming. Hershel's influence on Rick and the larger group brought them back to a place you could call a moral center. Rick begin to talk about "safety in numbers"

 

They did all this and still kept the show interesting by introducing new types of threats. The flu and the threat from within of members dying from ordinary causes. Rogue members that feed the zombies at night like pets and Carol doing things with no one else's knowledge or permission.

 

But noooooo. It's not enough.

 

My wife is done too. Or so she says now.

 

As for my spending time writing in a WD thread, don't worry your pretty little head any. I waste a lot of time here on the boards. And having retired from my day job four months ago, I have a bit of free time. It keeps me off the streets and out of trouble.

 

BTW, I think it's way safe to say that 99.5% of the people that watch the show have never read the comic book. The comic book's monthly circulation runs around 300,000 copies a month (absolutely huge numbers by today's standard. In October, Batman was #2 at 124,000). Meanwhile, 12 million plus people watch the show. And I think it safe to say that in the case of WD more than most, some collectors are purchasing more than one copy. There are no "duplicate" viewers of the show.

[Claudio]

 

 

BTW, I think it's way safe to say that 99.5% of the people that watch the show have never read the comic book. The comic book's monthly circulation runs around 300,000 copies a month (absolutely huge numbers by today's standard. In October, Batman was #2 at 124,000). Meanwhile, 12 million plus people watch the show. And I think it safe to say that in the case of WD more than most, some collectors are purchasing more than one copy. There are no "duplicate" viewers of the show.

More like 65-70k. The 300k numbers are for the issues with the insane amount of variants like 100 and 115.

[mschmidt]

 

 

BTW, I think it's way safe to say that 99.5% of the people that watch the show have never read the comic book. The comic book's monthly circulation runs around 300,000 copies a month (absolutely huge numbers by today's standard. In October, Batman was #2 at 124,000). Meanwhile, 12 million plus people watch the show. And I think it safe to say that in the case of WD more than most, some collectors are purchasing more than one copy. There are no "duplicate" viewers of the show.

More like 65-70k. The 300k numbers are for the issues with the insane amount of variants like 100 and 115.

 

Yeah, not hard to get to a 300k circulation when you do 15 variant covers for one issue :doh:

[rjrjr]

 

 

BTW, I think it's way safe to say that 99.5% of the people that watch the show have never read the comic book. The comic book's monthly circulation runs around 300,000 copies a month (absolutely huge numbers by today's standard. In October, Batman was #2 at 124,000). Meanwhile, 12 million plus people watch the show. And I think it safe to say that in the case of WD more than most, some collectors are purchasing more than one copy. There are no "duplicate" viewers of the show.

More like 65-70k. The 300k numbers are for the issues with the insane amount of variants like 100 and 115.

 

Yeah, not hard to get to a 300k circulation when you do 15 variant covers for one issue :doh:

 

Not hard for Walking Dead. I'd wager Dynamite Entertainment, IDW, Avatar, etc. couldn't do it with any of their books. Marvel and DC might depending on the book (Did Justice League of America break 300K?) Boom might with one of their kid properties if the wind was right. Valiant wouldn't either, but they have a guaranteed 10,000 copy fan base, so maybe if they printed a book with 30 variant covers...

Edited December 4, 2013 by rjrjr

[Hulk44]

Is it me or does it seem everyone is dumping their Walking Deads..?

 

Does anyone have a Black Label 9.8 they want to Dump before things get bad ...

[BarryAllen]

. With this and a new show and all of these ratings, the exposure of the walking dead continues to increase. More exposure leads to more people seeking out the comic, which increases demand.

 

Ratings do not necessarily equate to increased exposure.

 

Ratings were up 15% vs the last December mid-season finale. While still increasing, they aren't increasing by the previous leaps and bounds (Last year's end of season finale ratings were a whopping 58% higher than the season 2 finale).

 

Likely what we are seeing is two things.

 

Ratings tabulations are a constantly shifting sand. I dont know if they've started including the +24hr DVR viewings in the ratings or not, but that could account for some of the increase, and regardless some of the new audience is probably shifted viewing from the "record it and watch it later" crowd moving to the "watch it live so the internet doesnt spoil it" mindset.

 

Either way, unless there is something significant to expand the audience, and I dont think a second show on the same network really ADDS any audience (just gets the same eyes twice as much), I think we'll continue to see a nice 10% climb year over year. Now if there's a movie that does 200 million, or an actual zombie outbreak that drives people to watch the Walking Dead like its DIY Tv, then I could see big increases in viewership.

 

Regardless, what do you think these transaction numbers mean:

 

# of Walking Dead 9.8 sales (via GPA data)

2012: 92

2013: 113 (to date with December to go)

 

Do more sales mean there are more buyers, or more sellers?

In other words are people who were holding the Walking Dead selling them off at a higher rate than in previous years, or was there an increase in buyers here in Season 4? And the increased number of buyers helped drive the prices up?

 

If you look at the month by month price growth 2012 vs 2013 you can see a few things:

 

• 
  In 2012 there was growth in the off season (From April to October) leading up to the new premier.
  
• In 2013 it was very uneven with a 4 month dropoff after the finale (April thru July) with recovery in the two months leading up to the October release.
  
• In 2012 there was a dropoff after the premier (in Oct/Nov sales) with a rebound after the finale (December sales)
  
• In 2013 we mirrored the dropoff in October/November dropoff in sales (almost identically reverting to the previous July's average price), the question is...

 

1. will we see a December rebound like last year in the prices?

2. Will we see 2012's off season growth, 2013s plateau, or will we see prices fall off?

 

First time caller, long-time listener. Big fan of the data.

 

Three questions:

1. Do you think there is a strong correlation in the seasonality of the pricing year over year (i.e. if you layer 2010 and 2011 over this do the trends stay the same)?

 

2. How would you factor in the ever increasing number of books in the census impact the buying/selling numbers year over year?

 

3. If you were to place a bet today, would you buy at $1,900 or not?

 

 

[ThoseBackPages]

i still need these lousy 9.8's:

 

11,13,17,18,24,45,64,70,75,82,87,88

[paperheart]

i still need these lousy 9.8's:

 

11,13,17,18,24,45,64,70,75,82,87,88

 

and you just missed the 25 books that sold for $40 total in the modern FS forum

[ComicConnoisseur]

. With this and a new show and all of these ratings, the exposure of the walking dead continues to increase. More exposure leads to more people seeking out the comic, which increases demand.

 

Ratings do not necessarily equate to increased exposure.

 

Ratings were up 15% vs the last December mid-season finale. While still increasing, they aren't increasing by the previous leaps and bounds (Last year's end of season finale ratings were a whopping 58% higher than the season 2 finale).

 

Likely what we are seeing is two things.

 

Ratings tabulations are a constantly shifting sand. I dont know if they've started including the +24hr DVR viewings in the ratings or not, but that could account for some of the increase, and regardless some of the new audience is probably shifted viewing from the "record it and watch it later" crowd moving to the "watch it live so the internet doesnt spoil it" mindset.

 

Either way, unless there is something significant to expand the audience, and I dont think a second show on the same network really ADDS any audience (just gets the same eyes twice as much), I think we'll continue to see a nice 10% climb year over year. Now if there's a movie that does 200 million, or an actual zombie outbreak that drives people to watch the Walking Dead like its DIY Tv, then I could see big increases in viewership.

 

Regardless, what do you think these transaction numbers mean:

 

# of Walking Dead 9.8 sales (via GPA data)

2012: 92

2013: 113 (to date with December to go)

 

Do more sales mean there are more buyers, or more sellers?

In other words are people who were holding the Walking Dead selling them off at a higher rate than in previous years, or was there an increase in buyers here in Season 4? And the increased number of buyers helped drive the prices up?

 

If you look at the month by month price growth 2012 vs 2013 you can see a few things:

 

• 
  In 2012 there was growth in the off season (From April to October) leading up to the new premier.
  
• In 2013 it was very uneven with a 4 month dropoff after the finale (April thru July) with recovery in the two months leading up to the October release.
  
• In 2012 there was a dropoff after the premier (in Oct/Nov sales) with a rebound after the finale (December sales)
  
• In 2013 we mirrored the dropoff in October/November dropoff in sales (almost identically reverting to the previous July's average price), the question is...

 

1. will we see a December rebound like last year in the prices?

2. Will we see 2012's off season growth, 2013s plateau, or will we see prices fall off?

 

First time caller, long-time listener. Big fan of the data.

 

Three questions:

1. Do you think there is a strong correlation in the seasonality of the pricing year over year (i.e. if you layer 2010 and 2011 over this do the trends stay the same)?

 

2. How would you factor in the ever increasing number of books in the census impact the buying/selling numbers year over year?

 

3. If you were to place a bet today, would you buy at $1,900 or not?

NO.

These should have bought a few years ago when they were under $800.

The same can be said with an oz of gold currently at $1243.30

Gold should have been bought between 2005 to 2008.

Both ships have sailed on Walking Dead comics and gold for making huge profits.

Time to look for something else.

btw this doesn`t mean they will both not hold value. They could, but don`t ever expect the big profits you could have made if you bought the Walking Dead comics and ounces of gold in 2008.

Edited December 5, 2013 by ComicConnoisseur

[ThoseBackPages]

i still need these lousy 9.8's:

 

11,13,17,18,24,45,64,70,75,82,87,88

 

and you just missed the 25 books that sold for $40 total in the modern FS forum

 

ahhhh!

[r100comics]

 

The #1 9.9 on Comiclink just ended at $7,600

 

While Comiclink's probably not the best place to sell this, there's also a 9.9 on Ebay with no bids at $10k with 1 day to go.

 

Both are "White Label", so it looks like the recent $16k sale was purely down to that being a "Black Label" copy and someone wanting the best of the best.

 

It looks like those that sold their White Label for Black Label copies were wise to do so as there's now a gulf between them and I only see that widening as time goes on.

 

 

[Claudio]

The #1 9.9 on Comiclink just ended at $7,600

 

While Comiclink's probably not the best place to sell this, there's also a 9.9 on Ebay with no bids at $10k with 1 day to go.

 

Both are "White Label", so it looks like the recent $16k sale was purely down to that being a "Black Label" copy and someone wanting the best of the best.

 

It looks like those that sold their White Label for Black Label copies were wise to do so as there's now a gulf between them and I only see that widening as time goes on.

 

 

Last year at this time, there were 7 cgc 9.9's. Now there are 15. It seems like the people that wanted a 9.9 and had the means to buy it, have done so. Now the prices are dropping to the next tier buyer. I stole this link from ExcludedTim on the TWD thread

 

http://www.cgcdata.com/cgc/issuehistory.asp?comicid=43829

 

[musicmeta]

If you find the show so boring, stop watching.

 

I intend to do just that. I'm tired of this group never making what I'll call any "forward progress". It's the same plots endlessly recycled. Add a bunch of members so you can have a blood bath killing them off. Kill people in ever more gruesome ways. About the time the group settles in and starts doing something constructive, have some major calamity and scatter them all over the country side - so you can have them find each other again and start over.

 

It's not boring. It's senseless and stupid. The groups do so many stupid things trying to list them all would be work.

 

For instance. Last time Rick's group drew the Governor's people into the prison and kicked their asses. Should have wiped them out, but that is a different issue. Sunday, they stand along the fences guns blazing. The Governor had already announced he wanted the place intact. So retreat inside and wait. It isn't safe for he and his people to stand outside the fence for days, so he'll either come in or go away. At some point the Gov's people have to try to take the prison from the inside, one cell block at a time. Advantage to Rick's team.

 

And of course a good rifle and a scope could have taken the Gov out and the remaining people probably would have taken the offer to coexist.

 

Then Rick goes mano a mano with the Governor as he walks past the bus he's hiding behind. That no one else notices is stupid too. What, they all forgot he was behind the bus?? But that's not quite as stupid as Rick - who gets the absolute snot beat out of him. Here is a suggestion Rick: He just cut off Hershel's head and he's leading a small army. Shoot the SOB in the back as he walks by. At this point, Rick's kid is smarter and a better leader than his old man.

 

I'm done. But it won't affect the comic book prices, as I don't read or purchase them.

 

 

I though the mid-season finale was entertaining and maintained the level of suspense and horror I have come to expect from this show. I'll be back for more episodes. I don't read the comic, so I'm guessing we'll spend the remainder of the season putting the group back together and I have my suspicions Carole will show up. So far for me, the Walking Dead, Revolution, Sleepy Hollow, and Dracula are delivering the entertainment this season. Revolution almost lost me last season, but this season has been really good. Sleepy Hollow has been consistently good since the start. Dracula started slow, but has really hit it's stride the past few episodes.

 

I'm probably done with Haven and Agents of Shield. They will join a myriad of other shows I've watched but decided to stop because I lost interest. I cannot think of one event on either of these shows that I remember, whereas with the Walking Dead, there are several scenes and storylines that stand out this season.

 

While I foresee more levelling off of the Walking Dead comic prices, I don't see the success of the TV show slowing down any time soon.

 

I too thought the mid-season finale was very entertaining...Hey, it's just a TV show, slow moving zombies would never take over.

As for Agents of Shield, I'm about done myself. I have the last two episodes recorded and I haven't even bothered to watch them yet..I'm just not interested in watching this show anymore. A of Shield is a bust in my book.

[slym2none]

As for Agents of Shield, I'm about done myself. I have the last two episodes recorded and I haven't even bothered to watch them yet..I'm just not interested in watching this show anymore. A of Shield is a bust in my book.

 

If you have them recorded, watch them. They are the best two of the series so far, IMHO. YMMV on how much it is improving, but it is definitely getting better every show.

 

 

 

-slym

[musicmeta]

We'll ok, I'll check them out then. Maybe "Finally" the show is improving.

[Tony S]

The #1 9.9 on Comiclink just ended at $7,600

 

While Comiclink's probably not the best place to sell this, there's also a 9.9 on Ebay with no bids at $10k with 1 day to go.

 

Both are "White Label", so it looks like the recent $16k sale was purely down to that being a "Black Label" copy and someone wanting the best of the best.

 

It looks like those that sold their White Label for Black Label copies were wise to do so as there's now a gulf between them and I only see that widening as time goes on.

 

 

Last year at this time, there were 7 cgc 9.9's. Now there are 15. It seems like the people that wanted a 9.9 and had the means to buy it, have done so. Now the prices are dropping to the next tier buyer. I stole this link from ExcludedTim on the TWD thread

 

http://www.cgcdata.com/cgc/issuehistory.asp?comicid=43829

Interesting data. Thanks for sharing,

 

I don't think that the WD 1 9.9 selling for $7600 had anything to do with CL and their clientele. The number 19 in 9.8 sold for $620 or about $100 over the 12 month average price. The number 7 in 9.9 came in right at the last recorded GPA sale. So there appears to be plenty of WD collectors at CL's auctions. The downward trend on 9.9's is most likely as you've said - there are twice as many 9.9's now as there were a year ago. But not 2x as many people looking to pay the 9.9 premium.

 

 

[Claudio]

The #1 9.9 on Comiclink just ended at $7,600

 

While Comiclink's probably not the best place to sell this, there's also a 9.9 on Ebay with no bids at $10k with 1 day to go.

 

Both are "White Label", so it looks like the recent $16k sale was purely down to that being a "Black Label" copy and someone wanting the best of the best.

 

It looks like those that sold their White Label for Black Label copies were wise to do so as there's now a gulf between them and I only see that widening as time goes on.

 

 

Last year at this time, there were 7 cgc 9.9's. Now there are 15. It seems like the people that wanted a 9.9 and had the means to buy it, have done so. Now the prices are dropping to the next tier buyer. I stole this link from ExcludedTim on the TWD thread

 

http://www.cgcdata.com/cgc/issuehistory.asp?comicid=43829

Interesting data. Thanks for sharing,

 

I don't think that the WD 1 9.9 selling for $7600 had anything to do with CL and their clientele. The number 19 in 9.8 sold for $620 or about $100 over the 12 month average price. The number 7 in 9.9 came in right at the last recorded GPA sale. So there appears to be plenty of WD collectors at CL's auctions. The downward trend on 9.9's is most likely as you've said - there are twice as many 9.9's now as there were a year ago. But not 2x as many people looking to pay the 9.9 premium.

 

There are definitely Walking Dead buyers on Clink.

http://www.comiclink.com/Auctions/item.asp?back=%2FComicTrack%2FAuctions%2Fbids%2Easp%3F%5FSORT%3DYES%26f1%3Da%2EEndDate%26ODire1%3DDESC%26f2%3Di%2ETitle%252C%2Bi%2EIssueNumber%252C%2Bi%2ECondition%26ODire2%3DASC%26f3%3DStatus2%26ODire3%3DASC%26pg%3D2&id=986929

 

 

[Mark 1]

The #1 9.9 on Comiclink just ended at $7,600

 

While Comiclink's probably not the best place to sell this, there's also a 9.9 on Ebay with no bids at $10k with 1 day to go.

 

Both are "White Label", so it looks like the recent $16k sale was purely down to that being a "Black Label" copy and someone wanting the best of the best.

 

It looks like those that sold their White Label for Black Label copies were wise to do so as there's now a gulf between them and I only see that widening as time goes on.

 

 

Last year at this time, there were 7 cgc 9.9's. Now there are 15. It seems like the people that wanted a 9.9 and had the means to buy it, have done so. Now the prices are dropping to the next tier buyer. I stole this link from ExcludedTim on the TWD thread

 

http://www.cgcdata.com/cgc/issuehistory.asp?comicid=43829

Interesting data. Thanks for sharing,

 

I don't think that the WD 1 9.9 selling for $7600 had anything to do with CL and their clientele. The number 19 in 9.8 sold for $620 or about $100 over the 12 month average price. The number 7 in 9.9 came in right at the last recorded GPA sale. So there appears to be plenty of WD collectors at CL's auctions. The downward trend on 9.9's is most likely as you've said - there are twice as many 9.9's now as there were a year ago. But not 2x as many people looking to pay the 9.9 premium.

 

 

This is exactly the reason why WD 9.9 pricing will continue to tumble. There needs to be a 10 and then we will see some crazy pricing.

 

 

[paperheart]

The #1 9.9 on Comiclink just ended at $7,600

 

While Comiclink's probably not the best place to sell this, there's also a 9.9 on Ebay with no bids at $10k with 1 day to go.

 

Both are "White Label", so it looks like the recent $16k sale was purely down to that being a "Black Label" copy and someone wanting the best of the best.

 

It looks like those that sold their White Label for Black Label copies were wise to do so as there's now a gulf between them and I only see that widening as time goes on.

 

 

Last year at this time, there were 7 cgc 9.9's. Now there are 15. It seems like the people that wanted a 9.9 and had the means to buy it, have done so. Now the prices are dropping to the next tier buyer. I stole this link from ExcludedTim on the TWD thread

 

http://www.cgcdata.com/cgc/issuehistory.asp?comicid=43829

Interesting data. Thanks for sharing,

 

I don't think that the WD 1 9.9 selling for $7600 had anything to do with CL and their clientele. The number 19 in 9.8 sold for $620 or about $100 over the 12 month average price. The number 7 in 9.9 came in right at the last recorded GPA sale. So there appears to be plenty of WD collectors at CL's auctions. The downward trend on 9.9's is most likely as you've said - there are twice as many 9.9's now as there were a year ago. But not 2x as many people looking to pay the 9.9 premium.

 

 

This is exactly the reason why WD 9.9 pricing will continue to tumble. There needs to be a 10 and then we will see some crazy pricing.

 

 

why wouldn't this same argument hold for 9.8's? a little over a year ago there were 400 9.8's, now there are 650. given the huge surge in supply, it's impressive the book has held steady or even increased slightly since then.