A-level panel page valuations by artist/run - thoughts/additions/changes? 5 5

[Nexus]

Is Miller Sin City really $10-$20K for panel pages? Mitch had some nice splashes that were at the lower end of that range; can't imagine that there are enough people buying up panel pages for that amount unless we're talking A+++.

 

We probably need to break this down into arcs. For the first one, THE HARD GOODBYE...yes, probably $10-20K for Marv pages. For the last one, HELL AND BACK...no. All the intervening arcs would fall somewhere in between these two bookends, value-wise. That's the simplest appraisal, there may be exceptions (like a strong Nancy example, etc.).

 

Mitch has mostly had art from the latter part of the run. He had one nice Marv page (I'd call it an A) that he sold a few years ago for $11K, iirc. I suspect it might have gone even higher, given how fast it got snapped up and the number of sad collectors who missed out (raises hand).

 

 

[lb jefferies]

Does anyone know the last issue of Kirby FF/Thor that were 2up?

 

Not sure about Thor but I believe the last twice-up size FF interiors are from issue 67. The last twice-up FF cover is issue #75.

[glendgold]

I think the last twice up Thor interiors were #146. The last twice up cover was...152? I think?

[glendgold]

BTW, I wasn't expecting to enjoy this thread as much as I am. It's really interesting.

[Nexus]

Sin City is exceptionally tricky. It's certainly one of those 'controlled markets'. There are what, 200 pages from The Hard Goodbye, and only a handful (if that) of pages have ever been available for sale.

 

The one that sold for $11k was very nice, but not an "A" page when compared to the rest of that book, which has literally dozens of memorable "splashy" pages in it.

 

Good points!

 

For the foreseeable future, though, I suspect pages will continue to be carefully doled out, to help maintain values. The price range seems even more possible if we tighten it up to, say, $10K-12K (rather than the wider $10K-20K).

 

As for the quality of the $11K page, yes, my "A" page isn't going to everyone else's "A" page and vice-versa (and something everyone agrees should be considered when looking over this list). However, short of dozens of equally good (or better) pages hitting the market simultaneously, I believe this is minimally an $11K page. All day long.

[J.Sid]

(sorry about that, Felix. I'd meant to rephrase a couple of things in my post, but got busy at work and ended up deleting the post)

[romitaman]

i'm just curious..about the updated price list...as i look at it closer....how many "NON SURFER" Fantastic Four Jack Kirby pages have ever sold for over 40k? i cant think of even 1 myself.

 

i havent really seen any non surfer interior ever sell for over 20k.

 

Avengers pages from isues 1-3 have sold for much higher prices than large FF pages at auction to my recollection..

 

Mike

[stinkininkin]

i'm just curious..about the updated price list...as i look at it closer....how many "NON SURFER" Fantastic Four Jack Kirby pages have ever sold for over 40k? i cant think of even 1 myself.

 

i havent really seen any non surfer interior ever sell for over 20k.

 

Avengers pages from isues 1-3 have sold for much higher prices than large FF pages at auction to my recollection..

 

Mike

 

How do you define "non surfer" Mike? I bought a page that is in my CAF that has Dr. Doom on Surfer's board for over 20k. So it wasn't Surfer per se, but just his board (with Doom and Thing). Put another way, is the Doomsday storyline where Doom steals the Surfers board classified as a Surfer art/story with the commensurate price point?

 

Scott

Edited January 15, 2014 by stinkininkin

[Bronty]

while its a really interesting point, I don't think it should affect the list. I mean... how many "non batman non joker" killing joke pages sell for big bucks? etc etc

 

We can play the qualification game all day. Plus, on some level, maybe it doesn't meet the definition of an A page for that artist if it doesn't have certain content. I would never call a non batman non joker KJ page "A" level regardless of how nicely it was rendered. Kirby is a little different perhaps, but not entirely. I would presume FF5 doom pages would have some luck in the current market, for example, regardless of being "non surfer." Perhaps FF52 black panther pages? etc. I.e. "A" level is sometimes about the content as much as the art.

[jjeanius]

"A" level is sometimes about the content as much as the art.

 

IMO, content can very much supersede the aesthetics of the art itself when it comes to value. Nostalgia is not based on eye alone.

[Bronty]

yeah true. I said "sometimes about the content" but lets face it its often or usually about the content

[heartened]

Just got the re-release of Miracleman today, and it made me realize we don't have Leach Miracleman art on this list. Would place it at 10-20K for the A level pages. Felix and Joseph M. can back me up on this one, but if they think that's too high then I guess we put it in the 5-10K. Although, good luck getting anyone to part with their A level Leach MM pages at anywhere less than 10K... if you can find one, that is.

[drdroom]

yeah true. I said "sometimes about the content" but lets face it its often or usually about the content

 

Very much so. And I say that as someone for whom the artistic quality of the page is absolutely paramount. I still operate in an environment where content (meaning: popular character/ significant storyline) is king. Its a great advantage when there's a great Kirby page featuring, say, Shilo, and a large problem when the great Kirby page features the Surfer. When my A page is everyone else's B or C page, that's the sweet spot!

 

Not that I'm immune to content either, especially where nostalgia and safe investment potential meet. Ah, what a great hobby.

 

 

[delekkerste]

Just got the re-release of Miracleman today, and it made me realize we don't have Leach Miracleman art on this list. Would place it at 10-20K for the A level pages. Felix and Joseph M. can back me up on this one, but if they think that's too high then I guess we put it in the 5-10K. Although, good luck getting anyone to part with their A level Leach MM pages at anywhere less than 10K... if you can find one, that is.

 

I don't know the market for Leach MM pages, but, judging from your description, it sounds like it's small, illiquid and, one might say, "trades by appointment". And, that being the case, I'm not sure how realistic these values are...I mean, let's face it, when people think about $10-$20K pages, nobody outside of like 5 people would probably even think to consider Leach MM.

 

There were several sales of Jose Gonzalez Vampirella splashes a while back in the $5K range (back when there were none to be had and when $5K was real money). Probably about as many data points for those as 5-figure Leach MM pages, but I wouldn't have called that a representative market level either.

[heartened]

Just got the re-release of Miracleman today, and it made me realize we don't have Leach Miracleman art on this list. Would place it at 10-20K for the A level pages. Felix and Joseph M. can back me up on this one, but if they think that's too high then I guess we put it in the 5-10K. Although, good luck getting anyone to part with their A level Leach MM pages at anywhere less than 10K... if you can find one, that is.

 

I don't know the market for Leach MM pages, but, judging from your description, it sounds like it's small, illiquid and, one might say, "trades by appointment". And, that being the case, I'm not sure how realistic these values are...I mean, let's face it, when people think about $10-$20K pages, nobody outside of like 5 people would probably even think to consider Leach MM.

 

There were several sales of Jose Gonzalez Vampirella splashes a while back in the $5K range (back when there were none to be had and when $5K was real money). Probably about as many data points for those as 5-figure Leach MM pages, but I wouldn't have called that a representative market level either.

 

Hey Gene,

 

Rarity is a factor, and I agree that it complicates things. But, this is a slippery slope. There are lots of artists who had a small body of work and command high prices because of it. A comparison here is Keith Sandman pages, or Steranko X-Men pages. Each had about the same as Leach Miracleman. I look through the list and I too agree that if I had 10-20K there's a ton of stuff that wouldn't interest me on the list. The idea is not that people will pick and choose from amongst the list, but rather IF they wanted something on the list, this gives them a price point. I paid 12K for my page, which is a A+ page, about 6 years ago. Felix's pages are more B+ pages (sorry Felix, no offense meant!! I'd gladly take them off your hands!) and he paid about 7-8K apiece, roughly 4 years ago now. And those were public auctions. There are more pages out there of course, and I suspect they will start to surface now. 10K+ seems very reasonable to me. Again, this doesn't have to be what anyone will pay, but rather what someone would have to pay IF they were interested in an A level page by said artist/run.

 

Felix, Joseph, any comments?

[delekkerste]

Again, this doesn't have to be what anyone will pay, but rather what someone would have to pay IF they were interested in an A level page by said artist/run.

 

I don't doubt what you're saying, though, oftentimes, especially for hard-to-find/niche material, you can get people paying big bucks at first, but, as more supply hits the market, those prices aren't sustained. It wasn't that long ago (maybe 5-6 years) that a B+ DKR page could fetch $40-$50K, back when few were to be found; now even "A" pages aren't even guaranteed to hit that level with all the supply that has come out (same with McSpidey and there are probably other notable examples out there as well). Maybe you'll never get that kind of supply response for Leach MM, but, then, isn't the prevailing market level a bit artificial, like you described for other tightly-controlled markets?

 

Not just to your point, but, in general, I'd also be very wary about taking data points purely at face value. Sometimes the dynamic above exists; at other times, there is a freshness premium that disappears upon resale. Just look at how re-auctioned material from the past 2-3 years has fared the second time around on the auction block - of course there are some notable exceptions (like some Ditko Spidey pages), but most of this material has either lagged the price advance in the overall OA market or has produced mediocre results, even losses, to their owners. Data points are just what certain people (the winner and the group of underbidders) will pay for a particular item at a particular point in time - oftentimes one or more variables changes with the passage of time, not least because the winning bidder is often no longer in the mix.

 

I've been the underbidder on countless pieces and had many offers turned down over the years. In many cases, I would no longer be interested in these pieces (having either lost interest or acquired suitable other examples), and yet I bet a lot of people still think those data points are still good. I can't tell you how many times I've heard people say, "I got a $X offer on this piece from so-and-so" or "I've got a standing offer for this piece at $Y from this guy". I also can't tell you how many times people have come back to these people, only to find out that they have long moved on. Heck, last year I revisited the possibility of selling a piece that someone had a longstanding interest in, only to find out that the guy was not only no longer interested in buying, but was looking to sell to fund his daughter's college expenses!

 

And, finally, for many different reasons, people simply overpay for art! One could paint a very warped view of, say, the James Jean Fables market, based on a study of data points of my buying activity. Bottom line is that data points alone don't prove the level of the market - only a deep dive analysis into all the variables and circumstances does.

[heartened]

Hey Gene,

 

I can't argue with most of what you said, but that can be said for any segment of the art market. At the end of the day, this is why constructing a list is difficult, yet that's what we're trying to do. The Leach MM market is not tightly controlled. No one has more than one page other than Felix, as far as I know. It is simply rare. Both in total quantity ever produced and in terms of where they are now. It is very much like the Steranko X-Men market. There are maybe a total of 20 pages in total. But, I think the list should be comprehensive. There's a ton on there that I don't agree with or care for, and I don't question those valuations as I don't know much about it and others are more expert there. But, for MM, it has long been clear that Leach and Totleben are the kings. Anything less than 10K is simply not realistic at all. Just my opinion, I guess. But I'll say right now that if anyone has ANY pure Leach pages that they find (Leach pencils and inks), I'll put a standing offer of 10k for each and any one from now through 2016. I won't go back on my word Any takers?

 

[lb jefferies]

But I'll say right now that if anyone has ANY pure Leach pages that they find (Leach pencils and inks), I'll put a standing offer of 10k for each and any one from now through 2016. I won't go back on my word Any takers?

Boom!

[Verbow]

I thought it might be interesting to quickly map out which artists/runs garner what prices these days.

 

My list below if based on what I thought an A-level panel page by that particular artist on that particular run would sell for based on public sales and whatever private sales I am aware of.

 

Gene - you're going pretty deep! Mike (original poster) specifically stated he's using data points. You bring up some excellent points - drop in value for recirculated pieces, the very fluid nature of the market, etc. Certainly you illustrate nicely the need to constantly keep this list updated, and to "take it with a grain of salt."

 

With that being said, I still don't get the high end here. Hari, I see where you argue artificial supply constraints of Romita Sr pages affects the price. I certainly can't argue that. Still, the fact is if you want a Romita Sr 2x page you're going to pay 40k+. Mike had it right the first time.

 

And I'll reiterate a question Burkey brought up a few threads back - how many Kirby FF panel pages are going for 40k+? CAF market data search reveals none. The August Doom-Thing page on Comiclink went below 30K; not sure about the December one. Yes, Colletta inks, but is 40K plus really the standard?

Edited January 16, 2014 by Verbow

[delekkerste]

But I'll say right now that if anyone has ANY pure Leach pages that they find (Leach pencils and inks), I'll put a standing offer of 10k for each and any one from now through 2016. I won't go back on my word Any takers?

 

One crazy person does not a real market make.