Total Existing Copies of AF #15 2 2

[Hamlet]

Do you think a 3.5 is lower or higher than the median copy out in the wild?

 

Think about all the coverless, remaindered, and three-hole-punched books out there. All of the books with a coupon cut out or a page missing. All of the taped up, or cover-detached books. Most older books (especially pre-1965 books) are pretty darn rough.

 

It is pretty amazing that the census median for AF15 is now only a 3.5 though. It probably skews less than almost any other SA book now that the price is so high.

 

I would contend though, that the median grade of the unslabbed copies is less than a 3.5. In fact, I think you've made that point yourself already.

 

 

This is actually not correct. The vat majority of copies already on the census now are lower grade. As I mentioned earlier in this thread, the average grade for all blue labels as of now is 3.67, and that average has steadily gone down as more blue labels have been added over the years. The highest it ever was when the first copies started hitting 15 years ago was just 5.11. Meaning, obviously, that people are submitting lower and lower graded books on average as time goes on.

 

-J.

[Jaydogrules]

Do you think a 3.5 is lower or higher than the median copy out in the wild?

 

Think about all the coverless, remaindered, and three-hole-punched books out there. All of the books with a coupon cut out or a page missing. All of the taped up, or cover-detached books. Most older books (especially pre-1965 books) are pretty darn rough.

 

It is pretty amazing that the census median for AF15 is now only a 3.5 though. It probably skews less than almost any other SA book now that the price is so high.

 

I would contend though, that the median grade of the unslabbed copies is less than a 3.5. In fact, I think you've made that point yourself already.

 

 

This is actually not correct. The vat majority of copies already on the census now are lower grade. As I mentioned earlier in this thread, the average grade for all blue labels as of now is 3.67, and that average has steadily gone down as more blue labels have been added over the years. The highest it ever was when the first copies started hitting 15 years ago was just 5.11. Meaning, obviously, that people are submitting lower and lower graded books on average as time goes on.

 

-J.

 

As a pure speculation, I would be inclined to agree that the median grade of those remaining in the wild would likely be a 3.5 or less. The most common grade is actually a 3.0 even now.

 

GAtor would be far better qualified to give a more educated guesstimate I would imagine.

 

-J.

[roulette44]

Again, sorry to burst the bubble, but I don't see any disagreements; just several (realtively) mutually exclusive assertions

 

1) the average slabbed copy has reduced in grade over time. Logical because many (not all, but many) will only sub after the value exceeds a certain threashold (or decide to sell because of that threshold and believe a slabbed book will sell higher)

 

2) the average unslabbed copy is of lower average grade than the average slabbed copy. Sure, there may be lots of high grade raw ones out there, but the average will be pulled down heavily by all the incomplete, heavily damaged, well loved copies.

 

And maybe this all fits back into our original analysis of af15 demand relative to supply:

 

There maybe be 7-10k copies (or more) which is a lot, but

- there is a large following for this character, supporting the price

- many of these copies are unavailable to the market (now anyways) because they're tied up in collections and/or they're beaten up so bad, that they're still not wanted

 

** further note that the definition of the "too badly beaten" copy might have been a good 30 years ago, a fair/poor 15 years ago, and an incomplete now, because as the price rises, the collector can only afford an X grade copy.

 

Fascinating stuff.

[Tempus Fugit]

Indiana Comic Con on Friday.

A raw AF15

 

 

Likely a former SS that somebody cracked out?

Either way it would never be a blue label now so it's pretty obvious why it's being sold raw.

 

-J.

 

Except it's not for sale. It's for display.

And I asked.

No. It's never been graded by CGC or anyone else.

fairly obvious the right top edge and parts of the right edge have resto ...nice looking none the less

 

I saw this one in the flesh last Friday. I took one glance and assumed it was repro cover or restored. I could be wrong of course.

 

An untouched 1.8 in a yellow polybag, now that would have stopped me in my tracks...

[jaybuck43]

I have 2 raw copies. I know one copy has never been graded. I believe the second copy has also never been graded but cannot swear to it.

[jimjum12]

Thank you everybody! I picked it up raw expecting no more than a 2.5 . The 3.0 result caused me to break out in spontaneous bad dance moves . Kissy sounds to follow ....

[BarryAllen]

Thank you everybody! I picked it up raw expecting no more than a 2.5 . The 3.0 result caused me to break out in spontaneous bad dance moves . Kissy sounds to follow ....

 

It is always cool when things work it for the better for people.

 

Also, banana dance.

[wyattscomics-migration]

Finally obtained my personal holy grail today

[BarryAllen]

Saw a raw AF 15 today and toyed with the notion of purchasing it. It appeared to be around a VG/VG+ (priced at a solid 15% below GPA) but upon further inspection it was clear that it at least had some color touch and was pressed to cover up trimming to likely eliminate MC.

 

Realized that there are so so so many AF 15s in the wild, but based on this evidence they are all restored.

 

:shrug: it's science.

[Hamlet]

Here is the thing. If someone is selling an AF15 in a non-trashed grade, they are going to make substantially more by getting it graded unless it is restored. Someone who knows what they are doing and is trying to maximize their sale price would not be selling an unrestored VG+ AF15 raw. So a raw AF15 for sale is more likely to have restoration than one in the wild that the owner has no interest in selling.

 

That doesn't mean that most raw AF15s are restored. It means that most (or more at any rate) raw AF15s for sale are restored.

 

Note that this probably holds less true in the real low grades. If a copy is remaindered, I doubt that there is much financial incentive to get it graded. Does anyone care about the color touch on their remaindered copy?

 

Saw a raw AF 15 today and toyed with the notion of purchasing it. It appeared to be around a VG/VG+ (priced at a solid 15% below GPA) but upon further inspection it was clear that it at least had some color touch and was pressed to cover up trimming to likely eliminate MC.

 

Realized that there are so so so many AF 15s in the wild, but based on this evidence they are all restored.

 

:shrug: it's science.

Edited March 20, 2015 by Hamlet

[BarryAllen]

Here is the thing. If someone is selling an AF15 in a non-trashed grade, they are going to make substantially more by getting it graded unless it is restored. Someone who knows what they are doing and is trying to maximize their sale price would not be selling an unrestored VG+ AF15 raw. So a raw AF15 for sale is more likely to have restoration than one in the wild that the owner has no interest in selling.

 

That doesn't mean that most raw AF15s are restored. It means that most (or more at any rate) raw AF15s for sale are restored.

 

Note that this probably holds less true in the real low grades. If a copy is remaindered, I doubt that there is much financial incentive to get it graded. Does anyone care about the color touch on their remaindered copy?

 

Saw a raw AF 15 today and toyed with the notion of purchasing it. It appeared to be around a VG/VG+ (priced at a solid 15% below GPA) but upon further inspection it was clear that it at least had some color touch and was pressed to cover up trimming to likely eliminate MC.

 

Realized that there are so so so many AF 15s in the wild, but based on this evidence they are all restored.

 

:shrug: it's science.

But it's science....

[G.A.tor]

2 days ago I asked one of our great danes how many af15's were left out in the wild....

 

he barks to count....2 days later, he's still barking

 

I realize now it was a dumb question to ask....

[BarryAllen]

2 days ago I asked one of our great danes how many af15's were left out in the wild....

 

he barks to count....2 days later, he's still barking

 

I realize now it was a dumb question to ask....

 

You have great danes!!!?

 

I have a great dane, they are awesome dogs!

 

This is Holland:

 

 

You are right though, I probably wouldn't ask him how many AF 15s are left in the wild - he is a DC fan and wouldn't take the question seriously..

[G.A.tor]

Jace and Zoe (they saw a squirrel)

 

[BarryAllen]

Jace and Zoe (they saw a squirrel)

 

 

(thumbs u

 

Very cool!

[Magneto]

Jace and Zoe (they saw a squirrel)

 

 

Trained to sniff out raw AF15's in the wild!

[Jaydogrules]

Here is the thing. If someone is selling an AF15 in a non-trashed grade, they are going to make substantially more by getting it graded unless it is restored. Someone who knows what they are doing and is trying to maximize their sale price would not be selling an unrestored VG+ AF15 raw. So a raw AF15 for sale is more likely to have restoration than one in the wild that the owner has no interest in selling.

 

That doesn't mean that most raw AF15s are restored. It means that most (or more at any rate) raw AF15s for sale are restored.

 

Note that this probably holds less true in the real low grades. If a copy is remaindered, I doubt that there is much financial incentive to get it graded. Does anyone care about the color touch on their remaindered copy?

 

Saw a raw AF 15 today and toyed with the notion of purchasing it. It appeared to be around a VG/VG+ (priced at a solid 15% below GPA) but upon further inspection it was clear that it at least had some color touch and was pressed to cover up trimming to likely eliminate MC.

 

Realized that there are so so so many AF 15s in the wild, but based on this evidence they are all restored.

 

:shrug: it's science.

 

I agree with that up to a certain point. Restored copies can still bring pretty good money, and the percentages to blue label have increased as blue label prices have gone into the stratosphere. Even now, 1 in 3 copies on the census is restored. So there is definitely still a financial incentive to slab a restored copy, although I believe the reason many people do not when they sell is because they likely think they can get an even greater percentage without the alleged "taint" of the purple label. This is also likely why people who know (or think) they have a copy with something done to it simply choose to leave it raw. It wouldn't surprise me if well over half of however remaining unseen OO copies are out there were messed with one way or another over the years.

 

Cute pooches by the way!

 

-J.

 

 

[Hamlet]

Another issue that muddles this is trying to figure out what percentage of the restored books on the census were sent in by owners that didn't know they were restored.

 

I suspect that that is not a small number. How many people on these boards have gotten back the unexpected Purple Label?

 

 

I agree with that up to a certain point. Restored copies can still bring pretty good money, and the percentages to blue label have increased as blue label prices have gone into the stratosphere. Even now, 1 in 3 copies on the census is restored. So there is definitely still a financial incentive to slab a restored copy, although I believe the reason many people do not when they sell is because they likely think they can get an even greater percentage without the alleged "taint" of the purple label. This is also likely why people who know (or think) they have a copy with something done to it simply choose to leave it raw. It wouldn't surprise me if well over half of however remaining unseen OO copies are out there were messed with one way or another over the years.

 

Cute pooches by the way!

 

-J.

 

[mackenzie999]

What is the going rate on a coverless AF15 these days? I ask this because I discovered this board in 2008 during a bad eBay scam where I was sold one having a repro cover as complete. I believe I paid about $1200 for it, which at the time was robbery ($5-600 seemed to be the value at that time).

I'm wondering if my bad scam of '08 would be a bargain today?

(it wasn't easy but I was eventually refunded)

[Ghost Town]

I was curious to see what others would guesstimate to be the total number of copies of AF #15 that still exist (Note: I plan to post similar polls for Action #1 and Hulk #181 in the Gold and Bronze forums respectively).

It's fun to see this poll and hear all the various opinions. I'd be curious to see guesstimates of how many raw high grade copies are still out there in the wild. And just for the sake of this discussion, let's say high grade is 8.0 or better, unrestored.

 

I couldn't begin guess the total existing copies of AF #15 in any grade. But if it's narrowed down to unrestored high grade copies, I feel like my guess might be a bit more educated.