Market correction , will we see any effect on comics? 7 7

[Dark Knight]

Some more key silver age books ended on Heritage and on Ebay (Sparklecity) that sold for practically weak prices, perhaps due to the long 4th of July holiday.  I dunno why anyone would list their auctions and end it on this day, such a bad idea...  

[Dark Knight]

On 7/3/2022 at 6:07 PM, PKJ said:

X

I was looking to upgrade my X-men 1 during that time and watched/bid in auctions that wound up pushing me away from even trying. It and a few other books were just racing so high too quickly and made me wonder if the new money had ever been to a show. 3-4 years ago X-men 1 was easily found at several dealers table in multiple grades, even on the last day.

 

 I sold a dozen or so Mantle graded cards and the prices paid were astonishing. I have been looking for a Jordan rookie card and have noticed those and the cards I sold have had a sharp price decline (at least in the grades I look for). 

I joked in another thread though, not all books are dropping hard, I had hoped to finish off my Hulk 1-6 run and certainly paid a premium for an issue last month.

It seems like Mantle rookies are still selling pretty strong!  I wish I kept my PSA 1, but sold it 3-4 years ago :(.  Jordan rookies seem to have stabilized in price across all grades it seems after a huge drop in value this year.  With regards to comics, it would be interesting to see where it goes later this year and onto next year.

[Microchip]

On 7/4/2022 at 11:07 AM, PKJ said:

I joked in another thread though, not all books are dropping hard, I had hoped to finish off my Hulk 1-6 run and certainly paid a premium for an issue last month.

Books are dropping, but the price bar has been raised.  People know if there's another rush on, books will exceed previous price points.

[JB123]

Everything we sell is at a premium now somehow?

Sold a timely incomplete at heritage last night for triple what it sold for just months ago.

A friend who bought a modern graded comic several months ago at heritage just flipped it through their sales division and it went from 4000 to 8000 during the downturn?

My girlfriend sold two dozen daredevil bronze readers one at a time on eBay this week for great money............

Our prices we are realizing are up no question.

It's an amount that is helping us too.....

I was able to trade basic gold comics for EC low grade keys yesterday. My buddy is doing better selling the lower so he swapped with me.

He told me keys that were so so and are not too grades are suffering. Wwbn 32 was his example.

It's not rare and really not that cool in end so it will suffer if not a 9.8 etc....... It's a warehouse comic and everywhere etc....

In other collectible areas I'm finding that the rare stuff is doing well now which could explain the timely sale i had last night.  The common items in lower conditions are suffering.

 

 

[NP_Gresham]

Seems like a bunch of dealers with a deep inventory are blowing smoke up everyone’s arse

Prices are falling like a rock. Not only in actual price, but as measured against over- all inflation prices are way off.

Anecdotal stories and one off sales are not going to convince anyone, please peddle that nonsense elsewhere.

 

 

[ThothAmon]

On 7/4/2022 at 10:54 AM, NP_Gresham said:

nonsense

To itch his own. One piece of anecdotal evidence that at least the liquidity of the market is holding up is my standard eBay auction search of comic related keywords with actual bids over $15 is still much higher than before the pandemic. Tells me plenty of buyers still buying. 
 

[D2]

On 7/4/2022 at 8:46 AM, JB123 said:

 

Sold a timely incomplete at heritage last night for triple what it sold for just months ago.

 

 

 

Although I do agree where some comics are correcting in price, others are staying strong.

Heritage is buuuuuullsh*t. 
 

The only website on the planet that consistently churns out higher than market prices. 
 

Only a fool bets at Heritage. 

[serling1978]

I've been closely trying to read the market because I've been considering upgrading my JIM 83 but the prices fluctuate so much its hard to ever know the right time (Especially with a movie about to drop), though the prices do seem to be dropping quite a bit. I foolishly bought mine last year in May and I'm worried in the upcoming weeks it's going to fall back below what I paid over a year ago 

[Microchip]

On 7/5/2022 at 1:53 AM, D2 said:

Although I do agree where some comics are correcting in price, others are staying strong.

Heritage is buuuuuullsh*t. 
 

The only website on the planet that consistently churns out higher than market prices. 
 

Only a fool bets at Heritage. 

I've always suspected that most of the buyers on Heritage, only buy from Heritage, they don't go shopping for books elsewhere.   Hence the discrepancy in pricing we see consistently.

Heritage was the first, and best at promoting their auctions, and establishing themselves in this format.   Clink, Comicconnect, and Pedigree were late, slow, and a shadow of the marketing machine HA operates.   

I don't see a lot of HA books turning up at other auction houses, down the road.    People are buying their over-graded books, and stashing them away....thankfully.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Microchip

[JB123]

Isn't there different auction laws in Texas due to cattle and oil history that allow the auctioneer to bid and drive up pricing if need be?

I want to say that could be a reason they are headquartered in Texas?

Can anyone chime in on that?

[D2]

On 7/4/2022 at 11:38 PM, Microchip said:

I've always suspected that most of the buyers on Heritage, only buy from Heritage, they don't go shopping for books elsewhere.   Hence the discrepancy in pricing we see consistently.

Heritage was the first, and best at promoting their auctions, and establishing themselves in this format.   Clink, Comicconnect, and Pedigree were late, slow, and a shadow of the marketing machine HA operates.   

I don't see a lot of HA books turning up at other auction houses, down the road.    People are buying their over-graded books, and stashing them away....thankfully.

Yes. I definitely believe this to be true as well. I do believe there are certain Heritage Auction patrons that are loyal and do buy from them, only to stash their winnings away until their end. 
 

It just seems odd to me though that a product, designed specifically for uniformity, doesn’t call for equal pricing. 

[Beige]

Having just auctioned off a number of books I can say the market is down 25% from it's high.

Every book I sold was lower than the GPA average.

They were all genuine key books.

However - as the books cost me nothing salary-wise (bought from ebay profits only) I was happy to walk away with a very tidy sum.

All books were still in the top 5 - 10 previous prices on GPA in grade.

I do not see the market picking up anytime soon - only falling further.

It is most definitely beginning a major correction.

[Microchip]

On 7/5/2022 at 1:52 PM, D2 said:

Yes. I definitely believe this to be true as well. I do believe there are certain Heritage Auction patrons that are loyal and do buy from them, only to stash their winnings away until their end. 
 

It just seems odd to me though that a product, designed specifically for uniformity, doesn’t call for equal pricing. 

I suspect a lot of their customers may fall into the investor category, where they invest in sports cards/coins/comics.   They cross pollinate customers between their different auctions.  

Perfect patsy's for pumped up prices.   Paying just enough attention not to sit down and watch a few clink, connect auction results.   They're not published, or easily tracked down.  A good thing from Heritages perspective.   They have their own comic eco system.   

[KCOComics]

On 7/5/2022 at 2:27 AM, Microchip said:

I suspect a lot of their customers may fall into the investor category, where they invest in sports cards/coins/comics.   They cross pollinate customers between their different auctions.  

Perfect patsy's for pumped up prices.   Paying just enough attention not to sit down and watch a few clink, connect auction results.   They're not published, or easily tracked down.  A good thing from Heritages perspective.   They have their own comic eco system.   

I don't disagree with any of this, but it just seems so odd to me. 

You would think investors do their home work. Isn't that what makes you a good investor? It's not hard to get GPA or study sales for a particular collectible. And even for extremely wealthy people, this isn't exactly pocket change. 

I just have a tough time swallowing how Heritage continually defies the market.

[Bookery]

On 7/4/2022 at 11:53 AM, D2 said:

Heritage ... The only website on the planet that consistently churns out higher than market prices. 

I find them useful to bring my attention to certain items, however.  I recently bid with them on a hardback 1st edition I wanted.  When I got way outbid, I went over and found a copy on ABE Books in similar grade, PLUS autographed, for a third of the final hammer price at Heritage for the unsigned copy.

[Bookery]

On 7/5/2022 at 12:34 AM, Beige said:

Having just auctioned off a number of books I can say the market is down 25% from it's high.

This is in line with what I'm observing.  Three weeks ago I had to go through and update my in-house buying guide due to all of the price drops.  I looked again this week, and now have to do it all over again because of even further drops.  I'd say most silver and bronze keys have fallen 20%-30% off their highs set in the first quarter of 2022.  Plenty of moderns have fallen 50% or more.  Will prices return?  For some fad books, no... but then they often fall back even in the best of times.  Solid key books will eventually rise again... but looking at economic factors looming ahead... I'd estimate it might take 2 to 5 years.

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 7/5/2022 at 7:59 AM, Bookery said:

I find them useful to bring my attention to certain items, however.  I recently bid with them on a hardback 1st edition I wanted.  When I got way outbid, I went over and found a copy on ABE Books in similar grade, PLUS autographed, for a third of the final hammer price at Heritage for the unsigned copy.

Who Goes There, right? I saw the same thing on ABE books. I’ve learned to always check alternate sources on non comic book items listed on heritage. There were some 70’s Marvel puzzles on heritage a few months ago that were cheaper on ebay. Same with the items in the recent Disney  auction 

Edited July 5, 2022 by GreatCaesarsGhost

[lou_fine]

On 7/5/2022 at 6:05 AM, Bookery said:

This is in line with what I'm observing.  Three weeks ago I had to go through and update my in-house buying guide due to all of the price drops.  I looked again this week, and now have to do it all over again because of even further drops.  I'd say most silver and bronze keys have fallen 20%-30% off their highs set in the first quarter of 2022.  Plenty of moderns have fallen 50% or more.  Will prices return?  For some fad books, no... but then they often fall back even in the best of times.  Solid key books will eventually rise again... but looking at economic factors looming ahead... I'd estimate it might take 2 to 5 years.

Sad, but true and if anybody really thinks prices are not falling on "relatively common" so-called once hot key books that are available in multiple copies in various grades in every single auction, they really must have their head in the sand or living in their own fantasy world.  

One positive is that this will certainly help with CGC's turnaround times by the time it's all said and done in the end.  Was at a local comic convention the other weekend with more than one person saying that they had sent a bunch of books into CGC for grading over a year ago and had still not received them back yet.  They were expecting them to take only 6 months and they said, never ever again as the value of their books had already dropped by something like 50% and not sure what they will be worth by the time they actually get them back.        

Then again, I am not sure if this drop in comic book prices can be laid entirely at the feet of the bear market in equity stock prices, or also due to a sense of rationality returning to the comic book marketplace where buyers are simply no longer paying crazy town prices for books that are readily available on a regular basis.    

Edited July 5, 2022 by lou_fine

[Bookery]

On 7/5/2022 at 11:19 AM, lou_fine said:

Then again, I am not sure if this drop in comic book prices can be laid entirely at the feet of the bear market in equity stock prices, or also due to a sense of rationality returning to the comic book marketplace where buyers are simply no longer paying crazy town prices for books that are readily available on a regular basis.    

Probably not necessarily the stock market... most of my customers don't pay much attention to that.  But yes... comic prices were struck by "irrational exuberance" and... more importantly... folks are getting hit hard by high gas, food, and utility prices.  My couple of wealthy regulars haven't changed their buying patterns at all.... but it's certainly a factor for the rest.  I've also had an all-time record pace of collections being offered to me in the last 30 days or so.

Of interest... since I'm tracking hundreds or issue prices... sometimes the lower grades are actually going up even as the high grades are falling.  There is a definite shrinking of the spreads after years of going the other direction.  Easy to see why... those who were holding out for an 8.0 of their favorite pricey key have given up, and are now settling for a 2.0 or 4.0 of the same book... putting price pressure on the lower grades.

Interesting that, say, if you had $100k to invest in Marvel keys back in January... you'd have actually done better buying 2.0s-4.0s than 9.0s! (on the whole).

[lou_fine]

On 7/5/2022 at 8:54 AM, Bookery said:

I've also had an all-time record pace of collections being offered to me in the last 30 days or so.

Although most boardies here tend to talk about the demand side of the equation, I've actually wonder if the recent falling equity markets have had an impact on the supply side of the comic book marketplace?  

Especially with respect to some of the GA books which have shown up in both recent and upcoming auctions from long held collections whereby the owners have finally decided to put them into the marketplace after all these long years.  Psychologically speaking, bad negative vibes from either paper losses or falling balances in your fiancial investment statements can often be assuaged or offset by some positive real world gains in your bank account through a few choice select comic book sales.  Then again, probably just a good time to be selling with some of the crazy record setting prices which we have seen in the HTF GA marketplace. 

Edited July 5, 2022 by lou_fine