Market correction , will we see any effect on comics? 7 7

[kimik]

 

On 6/6/2022 at 2:48 PM, JB123 said:

So it's evident new comics aren't dead at all based on numbers. Maybe wavering but the growth has been so huge who cares?

What about total sales figures from heritage and comiconnect etc.......

I am imagining their hard numbers are up as well.

Hakes etc....

Anyone?

Agreed that online sales from auction sites and eBay are strong.

As far as new books, if you look at the numbers that are available, comic readers have shifted to collected editions/TPBs/omnibi instead of buying single issues for consuming content. That is why companies have TPBs out every few issues now. 

That being said, the single issue market is still alive and well here. My file LCS moved to a larger location during Covid to keep up with demand, and other stores I frequent have seen an uptick in monthly sales to new customers. A couple of new stores have opened here in Edmonton this past year as well. 

As far as shows, the crowds are younger, they are the ones paying for keys (not the older collectors who do not want to pay current prices if they need a key), and there are a ton of young female collectors now. It is getting close to 60:40 male to female buyers at shows, which is great for the hobby.

Edited June 7, 2022 by kimik

[Lord Gemini]

On 6/5/2022 at 3:56 PM, Wolverinex said:

no idea, who the heck wants a Pop?  More plastic to throw in the ocean.  

I have over 400 of them. It's a fun way to display a certain character you love, some of whom are very rarely represented in any kind of toy form, and most are cheap. I love the aesthetic of most of them too.

[Dr. Balls]

On 6/6/2022 at 2:39 PM, valiantman said:

Sounds like you might not know about Comichron.com

https://www.comichron.com/vitalstatistics/alltime.html

This deserves a bump. Comicchron.com is a very cool resource.

[WolverineX]

On 6/6/2022 at 4:48 PM, JB123 said:

So it's evident new comics aren't dead at all based on numbers. Maybe wavering but the growth has been so huge who cares?

What about total sales figures from heritage and comiconnect etc.......

I am imagining their hard numbers are up as well.

Hakes etc....

Anyone?

Looks like UF 4 9.8s are dropping . The fed's plan to destroy speculators is taking hold.

[Bookery]

On 6/5/2022 at 10:45 PM, DavidTheDavid said:

Comics carry much greater cultural cachet, even more so in the era of MCU, not to mention other media. Games alone have a massive audience for these characters. Coins and stamps never had anything like that.

Unfortunately, that's not an argument in favor of their longevity.  ALL pop culture is temporal.  I'm not sure anything out there today has the cultural identity and popularity once held by Tarzan.  His 1st appearance goes for a fortune still... but not much interest otherwise.  Popeye... even more so.  Huge cultural icon once.  Yet now I bet even on this comic-centric board most can't identify his 1st app., nor does anyone ever ask for it.  Elvis Presley collectibles are ebbing in demand.  I have customers (in their 30s -- not kids!) who have no idea who Marilyn Monroe is.  That said... I think others made a good point that now that comics, esp. with CGC, have become a commodity, that ensures a longer interest in the medium than would likely have existed were it dependent upon readership alone.

But it's certainly not infinite, even with that.  Nothing totally goes away.  There is no complete "death" of any hobby.  The rare and truly iconic will march on because it only takes a small number of wealthy people to maintain a market.  But the market will forever contract and become ever-more niche.  There will even be short resurgences from time to time.  But it's a pretty safe bet that in 20 years the comic collecting community will be quite a bit smaller than it is now, and in 50 years will be a tiny fraction of its current size.  This is not a negative reflection of the hobby... it's just a reality of all pop-related collectibles. If comics didn't follow this pattern... it would be the first and only time in history. 

Edited June 11, 2022 by Bookery
unfinished

[troydivision1]

On 6/11/2022 at 7:14 AM, Wolverinex said:

Looks like UF 4 9.8s are dropping . The fed's plan to destroy speculators is taking hold.

Noticed this last night whilst tracking the value of my personal collection.

Tin Foil Theory -
With the stock market in a downturn / inflation rising these are recent speculators that are 'cashing out' as they bought near the top; thus driving the price lower and lower.
Perhaps they are overleveraged or need the monies to pay bills or to satisfy margin requirements or they are just trying to catch a falling knife...

[Bookery]

On 6/11/2022 at 7:14 AM, Wolverinex said:

Looks like UF 4 9.8s are dropping .

Also showing a lot of red "down arrows" on GPA lately (a few minutes search) -- 

Avengers 8, 57;  Captain America 117;  Fantastic Four 48;  Incredible Hulk 180;  Silver Surfer 1;  X-Men 94...

[JB123]

What kind of percentages we talking?

Nominal or half off?

[GermanFan]

Its happening.

Finally.

Keep your powder dry.

Edited June 11, 2022 by GermanFan

[JB123]

The percentage gives an idea of how the collectible performs compared to other basic assets as a downturn occurs.

If the comics reduce.less than other basic investments then they are actually gaining in value still.

The dollar figure is a mindf........

A person can only do as well as the environment is dictating and we try and outperform it if we can.

If the economy loses twenty percent and the comic loses ten percent then it has actually gained ten percent in a certain fashion. It can be liquidated at current value and then buy more goods than it should etc......

[the authority]

On 6/11/2022 at 9:32 AM, JB123 said:

What kind of percentages we talking?

Nominal or half off?

Some are huge, some not there yet. Anecdotally,  I've purchased UF#4 for almost 40% less than I sold them for last year. While we may not be at the bottom of pricing, the odds were good enough to pick up a few.

 

Some things have just tanked. For example, Eternals #2 in CGC 9.8 was selling for more in mid 2018 than 3 of them have sold for since 3/20/22. last sale on GPA is about 28% of 2021 GPA averages. While the movie didn't help things, a 40 plus year old book with a pretty significant first appearance seems somewhat less expensive than it should be imo. 

 

Personally just trying to buy between the cracks. There are a good 50 or more books on my target sheet. Unfortunately, there are books that would surprise me if they recovered to last year's highs for year if ever. There was just so much cash being spent last year.

Edited June 11, 2022 by the authority

[Bookery]

On 6/11/2022 at 11:18 AM, the authority said:

Some are huge, some not there yet. Anecdotally,  I've purchased UF#4 for almost 40% less than I sold them for last year. While we may not be at the bottom of pricing, the odds were good enough to pick up a few.

 

Some things have just tanked. For example, Eternals #2 in CGC 9.8 was selling for more in mid 2018 than 3 of them have sold for since 3/20/22. 90 day GPA is about 28% of 2021 GPA averages. While the movie didn't help things, a 40 plus year old book with a pretty significant first appearance seems somewhat less expensive than it should be imo. 

 

Personally just trying to buy between the cracks. There are a good 50 or more books on my target sheet. Unfortunately, there are books that would surprise me if they recovered to last year's highs for year if ever. There was just so much cash being spent last year.

This is a good point.  The market is still robust... I can't keep items in as long as I price them reasonably.  It's just that last summer and fall prices went up so high and so fast it would be expected that there would be some downward movement afterward.  On the other hand, pulp magazines are in a current explosion similar to the past two years in comics... perhaps even more so.  Price escalations of 3x, 5x, and 10x in just the past year or two are not uncommon.

[Axelrod]

On 6/11/2022 at 11:18 AM, the authority said:

 

Some things have just tanked. For example, Eternals #2 in CGC 9.8 was selling for more in mid 2018 than 3 of them have sold for since 3/20/22. last sale on GPA is about 28% of 2021 GPA averages. While the movie didn't help things, a 40 plus year old book with a pretty significant first appearance seems somewhat less expensive than it should be imo. 

I feel like, with that book especially, but others that might have been inflated due to "movie hype," the best comparison to judge how much the "market" has fallen might be what the book was before there was even a movie announcement vs. what it is now?  

[ThatNerdyCanuck]

Based on nothing but seeing some recent eBay auctions, prices are definitely dropping. With inflation, and credit struggles more people are selling now than buying. 

[Beige]

If you buy a genuine key book - you will be OK

If you were the guys who paid between $20K and $27K for the last 4 9.8 sales of 1st Brother Voodoo - then prepare to be rinsed.

 

UF#4 isn't 'tanking' - it's settling after a period of huge growth.

The first sniff of a live action Miles M movie - then *boom* - off it goes again. The book is 11 years old!

 

It's always been like this - the sky isn't falling, it's a passing shower.

Books that have quadrupled in the last 18 months are settling back SLIGHTLY (10 - 20%) from all-time highs.

Anyone who bought a genuine key book more than 2 yrs ago is still making a fantastic profit.

 

The adjustment is certainly due - I think towards the end of the year, when a pattern has been established, then we will see wether people decide to bail out on mass, and take the profits.

The big high-grade keys going up for the next Heritage auction are still tracking towards the previous all-time highs.

Even if they are 15% lower - the profit increase from a couple of years ago is still incredible.

Here's a couple I'm tracking...

 

In 6 months we will now wether we are heading for a major correction or not.

[JB123]

So here is the lesson..... Don't liquidate.

It's tempting but comics are great training ground for general life business experience.

The net worth is where it's at. Just enough cash to create it is the key.

As long as a person can still sell enough to cover expenses and stay out of debt that really should be the goal now.

Any extra money that appears use it to buy low and create more net worth.

Once sales pick up after housing fixes itself one day you will be stacked and ready.

Expense control for now. And build the net worth inventory.

[WolverineX]

On 6/11/2022 at 1:43 PM, ThatNerdyCanuck said:

Based on nothing but seeing some recent eBay auctions, prices are definitely dropping. With inflation, and credit struggles more people are selling now than buying. 

So Covid was a bust but now

 

 

[troydivision1]

On 6/11/2022 at 10:32 AM, JB123 said:

What kind of percentages we talking?

Nominal or half off?

Here's a small takeaway from tracking my collection month-to-month.
UF #4 9.6 had a 14.89% decrease May to June
YOY it is down 14.37%

GSX #1 1.8 had a 29.07% decrease May to June
YOY it is down 29.69%
 

[Ryan.]

With regards to UF 4 specifically, there is a growing rumor, baseless or not, that a handful of dealers are sitting on massive amounts of high grade raw copies that are being slowly leaked out to the market. Could be nonsense but if enough people believe it they won't pour thousands into a 9.8 if there's even the possibility the rumor is true.

[ADAMANTIUM]

On 6/11/2022 at 7:57 PM, Ryan. said:

With regards to UF 4 specifically, there is a growing rumor, baseless or not, that a handful of dealers are sitting on massive amounts of high grade raw copies that are being slowly leaked out to the market. Could be nonsense but if enough people believe it they won't pour thousands into a 9.8 if there's even the possibility the rumor is true.

News to me so I looked up the census, only thing that I could think of, and there are only a couple of hundred more 9.6's than 9.8's. Would compare to ASM 300, well the last I checked #300. 

Not much of a difference yet for the hike on 9.8, only like 343 of signature series in 9.8 with UF4 though idk. Just food for thought, not that it necessarily insinuates anything. Something to be aware of though

alright before hitting submit I had to compare to #300 ASM, which still has a couple of "thousand" less in 9.8.

I'm ok with a market correction on UF 4, I mean it is a bit  but makes sense at least for now ......