Market correction , will we see any effect on comics? 7 7

[GermanFan]

Everything is cyclical.

I expect a flat buyers market beginning in a year or so lasting for a couple of years, until the USA manages (and it will) to change its course into a saner direction.

The speculators and flippers will be burned, fire sell and leave for good and only the cushy core of true collectors will stay.

Good comic times ahead!

[troydivision1]

On 6/13/2022 at 11:40 AM, Wolverinex said:

During the last drop, the Fed was on our side, now we are fighting the Fed.  I think the 8th wonder of the world "interest rates" will pummel everything into recession.

At this point you would have to specify 'our side'.
The markers for inflation were present months before they started noting it.
Heck, even the measure they use to calculate are different.
Coupled with the trillions in loans that have been forgiven and the daily reverse repo rate being over TWO TRILLION dollars a day.

[WolverineX]

On 6/13/2022 at 12:54 PM, Troy Division said:

At this point you would have to specify 'our side'.
The markers for inflation were present months before they started noting it.
Heck, even the measure they use to calculate are different.
Coupled with the trillions in loans that have been forgiven and the daily reverse repo rate being over TWO TRILLION dollars a day.

Retail investor

[yogi_bear13]

I hope so.  Stocks and crypto are getting creamed right now.  Many comics, even big bronze keys are already correcting but I want to see what happens with the Silver Age megas here shortly.  They have held up well but I don't see how they can hold these parabolic gains enjoyed over the last 2 years. 

[WolverineX]

On 6/13/2022 at 1:45 PM, yogi_bear13 said:

I hope so.  Stocks and crypto are getting creamed right now.  Many comics, even big bronze keys are already correcting but I want to see what happens with the Silver Age megas here shortly.  They have held up well but I don't see how they can hold these parabolic gains enjoyed over the last 2 years. 

My suspicion is that they will start getting hit as the recession continues.  We literally entered bear market today, there is likely much more to go.... 

[jjonahjameson11]

On 6/13/2022 at 3:26 PM, Wolverinex said:

My suspicion is that they will start getting hit as the recession continues.  We literally entered bear market today, there is likely much more to go.... 

yup, this will be a brutal, brutal summer for investors, collectors, and sideline fans.

[yogi_bear13]

On 6/13/2022 at 5:29 PM, jjonahjameson11 said:

yup, this will be a brutal, brutal summer for investors, collectors, and sideline fans.

Investors maybe, as a collector I wanna see prices crash.  I am trying to complete runs and there are still many silver age comics I need to reach my goal.  As you know Jonah the Spideys aren't cheap. 

[DavidTheDavid]

On 6/13/2022 at 12:45 PM, yogi_bear13 said:

I hope so.  Stocks and crypto are getting creamed right now.  Many comics, even big bronze keys are already correcting but I want to see what happens with the Silver Age megas here shortly.  They have held up well but I don't see how they can hold these parabolic gains enjoyed over the last 2 years. 

I'm hoping to see some declines. I'd like to snag an UF4 as Miles and select members of his cohorts of next gen heroes will get further immortalized by Disney and Marvel in games, books, merchandise, you name it. But I'm not going to pay these recent top line prices.

[jjonahjameson11]

On 6/13/2022 at 5:41 PM, yogi_bear13 said:

Investors maybe, as a collector I wanna see prices crash.  I am trying to complete runs and there are still many silver age comics I need to reach my goal.  As you know Jonah the Spideys aren't cheap. 

I think many dealers will hold back books until prices rise again…I hope you can achieve your collecting goals within the upcoming constraints 

[yogi_bear13]

On 6/13/2022 at 6:29 PM, jjonahjameson11 said:

I think many dealers will hold back books until prices rise again…I hope you can achieve your collecting goals within the upcoming constraints 

Some will but there is a point where many people need cash and you can only get so much on 1 to 5 dollar BIN'S. L

[the blob]

Personally, the dip was so big today I am tempted to go back all in the market right now as 85% of my 401K has been sitting in money market funds for quite a while. I know there may be more bottom to this, but timing the bottom is still awfully hard. But to put things in perspective, with dividend reinvestment, the market is still up 22.7% since january 2020, making for an 8.84% annual return even though 2022 has been horrible. I was so timid I missed out on most of the gains of 2019-2021 sitting on the sidelines expecting a long term crash. 

 

[Motor City Rob]

On 6/13/2022 at 12:54 PM, Troy Division said:

At this point you would have to specify 'our side'.
The markers for inflation were present months before they started noting it.
Heck, even the measure they use to calculate are different.
Coupled with the trillions in loans that have been forgiven and the daily reverse repo rate being over TWO TRILLION dollars a day.

I'll admit, I didn't know alot about reverse repo rates before seeing this chart. It looks alarming. After doing some research, it's still not clear how big of an indicator it is for the future of the economy. Can you give the uneducated a brief summary of what this means?

[Bookery]

On 6/13/2022 at 11:40 AM, Wolverinex said:

I think the biggest take home we will get from this thread is that the Covid drop and this drop are very different.

During the last drop, the Fed was on our side, now we are fighting the Fed.  I think the 8th wonder of the world "interest rates" will pummel everything into recession.

There's no choice at this point.  As bad as a recession is, it's still preferable to runaway inflation, which can eventually make currency valueless.  If you are sitting on lots of cash, then high interest rates are an advantage to you.  If you need to purchase a home, then not so good.  Retirees, people in secure jobs, and folks who don't need loans to get by will actually have more disposable income in a recession, and so may keep on collecting.  Those who are in debt or have jobs that may be at risk in a slowing economy will likely look to liquidate salable assets.  Which of these scenarios will have the greater influence on the comics market... 

[JB123]

VHS is up!

Drive in movies are fun......

[WolverineX]

On 6/14/2022 at 8:21 AM, Bookery said:

There's no choice at this point.  As bad as a recession is, it's still preferable to runaway inflation, which can eventually make currency valueless.  If you are sitting on lots of cash, then high interest rates are an advantage to you.  If you need to purchase a home, then not so good.  Retirees, people in secure jobs, and folks who don't need loans to get by will actually have more disposable income in a recession, and so may keep on collecting.  Those who are in debt or have jobs that may be at risk in a slowing economy will likely look to liquidate salable assets.  Which of these scenarios will have the greater influence on the comics market... 

That is true.

I do think that retirees on a fixed income are getting hurt by the increasing inflation and I think housing  prices will drop as the recession continues.  It tends to lag behind equity.   Lumbar prices are already getting trashed now  as demand wanes. 

[comicginger1789]

On 6/13/2022 at 5:41 PM, yogi_bear13 said:

Investors maybe, as a collector I wanna see prices crash.  I am trying to complete runs and there are still many silver age comics I need to reach my goal.  As you know Jonah the Spideys aren't cheap. 

I also am fine with prices dropping. Miraculously I only bought two books during the pandemic (Cap 117 and Werewolf By Night 33) that might take a hit and fall below what I spent on them ($275 and $200 respectively in 5.5 and 7.5 raw respectively). I also spent about $400 on 3 books with the intent to sell for profit that, at worst, I will break even on (good ole CGC and 8+ months of waiting). Ah well...it is still more fun to add for me and to do so at prices I like and that may become much more doable in the coming months.

I don't think prices will fall back to pre pandemic. Books that got unecessary bumps into the stratosphere though will come falling hard. Here's looking at you Wolverin #1 from 1988. I also think certain books are going to be very VERY tough to move. I have noticed that books that were $30-50 last year that have minor key appearances are moving slowly even when discounted down to $15-20. Everyone is holding their money tighter right now and spending it more essentially...at least the collectors of those types of books because many are in the lower to medium income category (generally).

[WolverineX]

On 6/13/2022 at 11:38 PM, the blob said:

Personally, the dip was so big today I am tempted to go back all in the market right now as 85% of my 401K has been sitting in money market funds for quite a while. I know there may be more bottom to this, but timing the bottom is still awfully hard. But to put things in perspective, with dividend reinvestment, the market is still up 22.7% since january 2020, making for an 8.84% annual return even though 2022 has been horrible. I was so timid I missed out on most of the gains of 2019-2021 sitting on the sidelines expecting a long term crash. 

 

You should get in unless you are retiring 

[snitzer]

On 6/14/2022 at 8:31 AM, JB123 said:

VHS is up!

Drive in movies are fun......

c'mon laserdiscs! 

[troydivision1]

On 6/14/2022 at 7:55 AM, Motor City Rob said:

I'll admit, I didn't know alot about reverse repo rates before seeing this chart. It looks alarming. After doing some research, it's still not clear how big of an indicator it is for the future of the economy. Can you give the uneducated a brief summary of what this means?

Had to Google this -
"The banks have too much money and no good place to put it.
Due to inflation making yields on most investments losses, and perhaps needing bonds and treasuries for collateral, it has become a very big number.
No part of the repo agreements makes banks lend out money; they are all overnight, fixing the balance sheet for meeting that nights requirements for margin, SLR, and other rules big players have to follow."

I've seen some posit that banks / MMs having cash on hand presents a liability in their ledger so they have to 'trade' cash for bonds overnight.
And the government provides .0005% interest for this swap.
Daily.
So the Fed pays a total of $100k per day (.0005% of 2 trillion dollars) across up to 90 participants  to 'maintain liquidity' in the market.

Edited June 14, 2022 by Troy Division

[Beige]

If this possible 'reset' will prove anything - it will show wether the infamous 'crypto-money' is behind comic prices or not.

I suspect it never was.