They're Still Out There! 22 22

[JTD]

9 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

I believe you missing the fact of actual inherent value of GA comic books and the incredible historical significance of PL 17 as opposed to MS 1st appearances or Giant size X-Men's. The crypto can come and go, I do not factor them in a TCMC for the long haul. I am certainly glad they not looking at PL 17...if they did and realized how really  valuable OO GA pedigree SOI comic books are..God help us it could  hit 500K.  Movie or no movie, buy the "book" not the "Hype". I like MCU, don't get me wrong, but with 10,000 copies of Giant Size X-men out there, the flip side against you argument is that the Giant Size X-man market can be flooded much easier, heck they grow on trees..but NOT PL 17 in 9.6 from a pedigree collection. No contest here on the potential of market "dumping".

 The best thing to help  GA TCBC's is market distraction and thank the MCU Movies etc for that now that this collection has become available for the first time.

I get where you are coming from, but the value is what it is…I understand rarity, provenance and historical relevance, which PL17 has in spades…everything is worth what someone will pay for it…both MS5 and GSX1 are in higher demand in 9.8, I don’t care how many copies there are…There are no Phantom Lady movies, toys or comics to bring in new interests…yes GSX1 grow on trees, but at market value the demand outweighs the supply…I was born in 1968 and have always been a Bronze fan, but I would take a that PL17 over a MS5 9.6 any day, but not over a 9.8…on a side note, I enjoy browsing the Gold sub more than than any other due to the knowledge you guys have and I’m looking forward to see the hammer prices of this collection!

[Straw-Man]

On 6/3/2021 at 8:21 AM, pemart1966 said:

He's great in The Heiress too.  He was never the same after the accident though IMO.

red river for me.

[drbanner]

17 hours ago, LordRahl said:

You're missing a very key component of why bronze and copper keys are skyrocketing. The guys making a killing in the stock market, crypto market and working in high tech with not only 6 figure salaries but RSU's as well are in their 30's and 40's. They grew up with Ghost Rider and X Men and Venom etc. They have never heard of Phantom Lady and wouldn't give 2 chits about that book. The MCU is also bringing into prominence stuff dudes in their 30's and 40's read and collected as kids, there will be no movies made of PL17. Debatable which one will be a better long term bet but my money is on the one that has a much, much bigger fan base. Sure there will always be fans of GA stuff but the fans of Silver/Bronze/Copper are greater in number by several factors at least.

Exactly, as much as “seasoned” collectors appreciate obscure GA books with classic covers the demand side for Silver and Bronze is what’s going to drive the market in the years ahead. The Promise books are museum pieces that will sell for crazy money, but I’d bank on the broad silver/bronze market over the long run moving forward.

[JLA Brad]

This is a 9.6?  That top left corner looks chewed up!

[JLA Brad]

To put it in perspective, this is the All Star #33 9.4 I used to own:

[JTD]

8 minutes ago, JLA Brad said:

This is a 9.6?  That top left corner looks chewed up!

May be a bindery chip...they certainly weren’t gonna dock that on this collection...your cover looks structurally better, but the 9.6 is more aligned...personally I like your old copy better, at least on initial appearance...

[Pantodude]

The 9.4 front cover looks nicer.  But there's more to grading than just the front cover, like the rest of the book!  And we are talking about uber-high grades.  There could any number defects on the back cover or interior that brought the 9.4 down. 

Edited June 6, 2021 by Pantodude

[jimjum12]

53 minutes ago, JTD said:

May be a bindery chip...they certainly weren’t gonna dock that on this collection...your cover looks structurally better, but the 9.6 is more aligned...personally I like your old copy better, at least on initial appearance...

May be the scanner, but the 9.4 seems to have some staining above "All" .. I'd love either ... and the story in AS 33 is better than AA 61 GOD BLESS ...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[sfcityduck]

57 minutes ago, JTD said:

May be a bindery chip...they certainly weren’t gonna dock that on this collection...your cover looks structurally better, but the 9.6 is more aligned...personally I like your old copy better, at least on initial appearance...

I prefer the 9.4.  The 9.4 is structurally sounder than the 9.6 (check out the top right corner for the 9.6 to see how the pages are wonky and the left edge to see evidence of manipulation that left a bit of a mark).  I agree that the cut is a little higher on the 9.4 than the 9.6, so some of the writing on the bottom of the cover (which is tilted on both copies) is cut-off.  The top left corner of the 9.6 has a piece missing.  The corners of the 9.4 are immaculate.  The 9.6 has printing defects (missing ink) in the "Feb.-Mar." and the blacks are spotty, suggesting that the 9.6 was printed towards the end of the run when the rollers were losing ink.  In contrast, the 9.4 has perfect printing.  IMHO, the holders need to be flipped at least!  

P.S. I note the 9.6 is denoted as white, whereas the 9.4 is denoted as ow/w.  But since Heritage has already stated the Promise books are not as white as the Mile Highs and San Francisco's, without seeing pics of the interiors of both books its hard for me to assess the PQ.

Edited June 6, 2021 by sfcityduck

[The Lions Den]

19 hours ago, Courageous Cat said:

what gives 

[The Lions Den]

18 hours ago, lou_fine said:

What's your question or concern here?  

Apparently we've come full circle...  

[lou_fine]

8 hours ago, JTD said:

I understand rarity, provenance and historical relevance, which PL17 has in spades…everything is worth what someone will pay for it…both MS5 and GSX1 are in higher demand in 9.8, I don’t care how many copies there are…There are no Phantom Lady movies, toys or comics to bring in new interests…yes GSX1 grow on trees, but at market value the demand outweighs the supply…

Totally understandable as I guess it's really a matter of to each, their own when it comes to every individual's own personal collecting preferences. 

 

8 hours ago, JTD said:

but I would take a that PL17 over a MS5 9.6 any day, but not over a 9.8…

This part here I don't quite understand as much, especially since grading is still only a so-called "expert" opinion at best and hence subject to possible error, as opposed to being an exact science.  After all, as many have already stated here, the exact same book that's been graded one day as a CGC 9.6 could conceivably come back graded as a CGC 9.8 on another day, or vice versa.  It is at this point with these tiny almost indistinguishable differences in grade from my POV at least, is where the actual underlying book would come into play and the PL 17 would clearly win out over a MS 5 if you are talking about these respective types of grading condition levels in your example here.     

 

[lou_fine]

3 hours ago, drbanner said:

The Promise books are museum pieces that will sell for crazy money, but I’d bank on the broad silver/bronze market over the long run moving forward.

I would definitely tend to agree with this POV, especially if the comic book market is going to hopefully continue to move in an upwards direction over time going forward.    

Especially since most of these GA Promise Collection books in these types of grades are the types of books which comes to market only once every several years as opposed to the HG SA/BA/CA where you almost seenmingly see several copies coming to market in every single auction.  It's definitely easier to have increasing valuations on books going forward if they have continuing market action and reinforcing actual sales in order to drive valauations upwards, as opposed to having a book come to market only once every several years.  

On the other hand, if there were ever to be a comic book market crash which is not totally out of the question given how frothy with an extra cherry on top this marketplace is right now, guess which one of these books I would much rather be holding onto going forwards.  

Edited June 6, 2021 by lou_fine

[Mmehdy]

3 hours ago, drbanner said:

Exactly, as much as “seasoned” collectors appreciate obscure GA books with classic covers the demand side for Silver and Bronze is what’s going to drive the market in the years ahead. The Promise books are museum pieces that will sell for crazy money, but I’d bank on the broad silver/bronze market over the long run moving forward.

My major argument of the "displacement" factor risk when you are paying the equivalent of a OO GA ultra high grade PL 17 vs Giant Size X-Men #1 my major bone of contention. Somebody out there could be sitting with 25/ 50 9.8 copies and when dump, regardless of demand, the price will adjust. I do not see that with like FF1...there was no speculation back then, as Marvel comics began the collecting craze by advertising and promoting the value of their back issues. So the possible speculator for Giant Size X-Men #1 had a collector/investor heads up. I will agree the demand for SA books are and will remain thru time greater. But the supply factor has to be taken into account. If there are say 200 GA collectors in the market for the PL 17 vs 10,000 collectors for X-men the ratio is still favorable 200 to one vs one for one. Where I disagree is the number of collectors going forward..if more are coming in, then I will grant you with 100% certainty that SA prices will over time exceed GA comic book values. If we were to look 30 years forward, the top ten comic books could be filled with not only FF1 or AF 15...but Spiderman 1, TOS 39 etc. If, however the number of collectors stays about the same...then the Promise books no doubt  will be right there with them and have that extra bit of security of being Pedigreed. If collectors are on the decrease, then only the best of the best will sustain over time and that includes top grade EARLY SA as well as high grade pedigreed GA books, such as Church, SF, or Promise. Rarity is not a bad thing in either GA or SA comic books worlds.

The flip side of saying that because the Promise books will not price appreciate because of infrequent sales is not historically accurate. Look at the performance of the Church or SF books over the last 30+ years. It is the fact, that they are rare or rarely come to market that they gather additional attention and demand when those books do come to auction.

I hope it turns out this way happily for all collectors. Everything goes up... and its Win-Win for both of the GA/SA comic book world.

Edited June 6, 2021 by Mmehdy

[drbanner]

3 hours ago, lou_fine said:

I would definitely tend to agree with this POV, especially if the comic book market is going to hopefully continue to move in an upwards direction over time going forward.    

Especially since most of these GA Promise Collection books in these types of grades are the types of books which comes to market only once every several years as opposed to the HG SA/BA/CA where you almost seenmingly see several copies coming to market in every single auction.  It's definitely easier to have increasing valuations on books going forward if they have continuing market action and reinforcing actual sales in order to drive valauations upwards, as opposed to having a book come to market only once every several years.  

On the other hand, if there were ever to be a comic book market crash which is not totally out of the question given how frothy with an extra cherry on top this marketplace is right now, guess which one of these books I would much rather be holding onto going forwards.  

Yep, the books that people want (silver/bronze), not esoteric Gold.

[jimbo_7071]

3 hours ago, drbanner said:

Yep, the books that people want (silver/bronze), not esoteric Gold.

Sad but true. Many of the younger people I know are more fans of the "Marvel Universe" than they are of the comic books per se. Even the ones who lean towards DC don't care about any DC characters besides Batman and maybe the Silver-Age Flash. They don't even care about Superman and Wonder Woman.

 

 

Edited June 7, 2021 by jimbo_7071

[Crowzilla]

7 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

 If there are say 200 GA collectors in the market for the PL 17 vs 10,000 collectors for X-men the ratio is still favorable 200 to one vs one for one. Where I disagree is the number of collectors going forward..if more are coming in, then I will grant you with 100% certainty that SA prices will over time exceed GA comic book values. If we were to look 30 years forward, the top ten comic books could be filled with not only FF1 or AF 15...but Spiderman 1, TOS 39 etc. If, however the number of collectors stays about the same...then the Promise books no doubt  will be right there with them and have that extra bit of security of being Pedigreed. If collectors are on the decrease, then only the best of the best will sustain over time and that includes top grade EARLY SA as well as high grade pedigreed GA books, such as Church, SF, or Promise. Rarity is not a bad thing in either GA or SA comic books worlds.

There are definitely not 200 GA collectors willing and able to drop six figures on a PL17, of course there aren't 10,000 collectors willing/able to drop five figures on GSX1 right now either, but I definitely feel the ratio is far in favor of X-men.  It reminds me of a conversation from 1974...

1974 Collector A: Can you believe these silly kids? Amazing Fantasy 15 now guides for almost 1/3 of Feature Book 26.  Don't these kids know how common a 12 year old book is vs an early Golden Age book? And especially in high grade? AF15 is common! Every dealer at this show has one. Trying finding a Feature Book 26 at any price at a show. Doesn't happen. Don Thompson told me he bought 4 copies of that Spider-man thing when it came out. There's enough of them out there for everybody to have doubles.

1974 Collector B: Yeah, these new collectors are nuts. They just don't realize how common all this recent stuff is. Don't worry, they will figure it out eventually. Stick with rarity. Mark my words, Amazing Fantasy 15 is a bubble, you can't go from .12¢ to $80 in a few years and not expect it to come crashing down. It doesn't have the history of Feature Book 26.

[innocuous]

3 hours ago, szav said:

The nice thing about esoteric Gold is that it only takes a handful of the legion of SA/CA/BA buyers to periodically get bored of trading around the same 20-30 keys, and to move on over and join the hunt, and put their money and time into pursuing rarity and history, to keep the GA market sustained. Happens all the time.  I think a year or two from where things are now Gold is going to hold its value a bit better relative to SA/BA/CA, but we'll see.

We’ll see. But I’ll still hold on to my Ultimate Fallout 4. 

[Cat-Man_America]

46 minutes ago, Crowzilla said:

There are definitely not 200 GA collectors willing and able to drop six figures on a PL17, of course there aren't 10,000 collectors willing/able to drop five figures on GSX1 right now either, but I definitely feel the ratio is far in favor of X-men.  It reminds me of a conversation from 1974...

1974 Collector A: Can you believe these silly kids? Amazing Fantasy 15 now guides for almost 1/3 of Feature Book 26.  Don't these kids know how common a 12 year old book is vs an early Golden Age book? And especially in high grade? AF15 is common! Every dealer at this show has one. Trying finding a Feature Book 26 at any price at a show. Doesn't happen. Don Thompson told me he bought 4 copies of that Spider-man thing when it came out. There's enough of them out there for everybody to have doubles.

1974 Collector B: Yeah, these new collectors are nuts. They just don't realize how common all this recent stuff is. Don't worry, they will figure it out eventually. Stick with rarity. Mark my words, Amazing Fantasy 15 is a bubble, you can't go from .12¢ to $80 in a few years and not expect it to come crashing down. It doesn't have the history of Feature Book 26.

You don't need 200 GA collectors bidding on a rare high grade GA book, ...just two determined ones.  The same holds true for any popular SA book or media speculated book from any era.  

The one unquantifiable variable is availability of books on the market.  Those numbers matter, especially when discussing graded books.  That variable is what makes or breaks a "bubble" regardless of the age of the book.  

In some respects, those 1974 collectors may still have a point.  Of course, that makes me 1974 Collector C.  

Edited June 7, 2021 by Cat-Man_America
ale

[Mmehdy]

59 minutes ago, Crowzilla said:

There are definitely not 200 GA collectors willing and able to drop six figures on a PL17, of course there aren't 10,000 collectors willing/able to drop five figures on GSX1 right now either, but I definitely feel the ratio is far in favor of X-men.  It reminds me of a conversation from 1974...

1974 Collector A: Can you believe these silly kids? Amazing Fantasy 15 now guides for almost 1/3 of Feature Book 26.  Don't these kids know how common a 12 year old book is vs an early Golden Age book? And especially in high grade? AF15 is common! Every dealer at this show has one. Trying finding a Feature Book 26 at any price at a show. Doesn't happen. Don Thompson told me he bought 4 copies of that Spider-man thing when it came out. There's enough of them out there for everybody to have doubles.

1974 Collector B: Yeah, these new collectors are nuts. They just don't realize how common all this recent stuff is. Don't worry, they will figure it out eventually. Stick with rarity. Mark my words, Amazing Fantasy 15 is a bubble, you can't go from .12¢ to $80 in a few years and not expect it to come crashing down. It doesn't have the history of Feature Book 26.

In 1974 there were far more marvel collectors than there are today. Of course the circulation of the books were 10X what they are today  with 500 cable channels and Playstation as competition. Back then, nobody underestimated FF1 or AF 15 or Hulk 1 and I think the real investors back then realized that they would rather have FF1 than Superman 26 or FB 26 or whatever. Yes, the cost of the books in compared to today has changed. But even back in 1974 GA was rare, and especially anything pre-1952. Even by say, 1975 collectors were buying spec buys, for example the Late and great Barry Baulman who purchased the legendary 1000 copies of of Conan 1 and I think he got them wholesale for like $1200 which was a lot of back then.

1972-1974 was the biggest transition year for both GA/SA comic book collectors, It was the combination of the Overstreet Guide, Marvel hitting its stride along with DC and the acceptance that GA comic books actually had value. But Crowzilla, we as GA collectors grew up on Marvel comics and we thought both were great...The younger the collector back then, the more likely they were serious Marvel collectors. But you have remember, I never bought a GA comic book on the stands. I was not even born in the Golden Age, and thru originally collecting both Marvel and DC comics...wanting to explore their  exciting past it lead me to the Golden Age of Marvel and DC...so you conversation could really have never taken place back then. Every comic book back then, even at 15 cents had the possibility of being collectable.

We are headed for inflationary times. Even thought the last "super" inflation event in which in 1982 My parents who were moving had to get a mortgage at 15%...I mean  it15% and that was a bargain it should of been 18%..GA  high grade comic books HELD both in terms of value and demand the early 80's inflation event. Hard assets such as the "promise" books can hold thru inflationary times like a champ if both with sanity and responsibility. We have over 5000 books to chose from and decide. My onion is the "promise books" are one of king and with 10,000 and more coming ever day on the census of GSX1..that purchase can wait...it will be available in the future. The Promise books will not.
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