Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[THE_BEYONDER]

I still need to replace my 181.  I’m probably going to get a green label and enjoy the savings...

[Poekaymon]

On 10/21/2022 at 9:59 AM, THE_BEYONDER said:

I still need to replace my 181.  I’m probably going to get a green label and enjoy the savings...

Just get a nice coverless.

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 10/21/2022 at 10:11 AM, Poekaymon said:

Just get a nice coverless.

Nah.  Probably a nice green label 6.0 for about half the blue label cost 

Or maybe something like this....

 

Edited October 21, 2022 by THE_BEYONDER

[mephistopheles]

On 10/20/2022 at 6:33 PM, Poekaymon said:

What a bunch of nimrods.  I don't care what it sold for, but I read the description and got hives.  I haven't seen this many hokey and demonstrably false superlatives in a long time.  I hate this sort of puffery so much.  (By the way, some sale threads here are guilty of this too--just sayin'.  (Please stop.)  ((Please.))

1.  "Unreal deep rich colors" - The colors seem normal to me.  It doesn't belong in the sun-fade thread I guess.  But I don't think they are bending the fabric of reality with their peculiar depth and richness.

2.  "Beautiful spine" - Is it?  Not sure I've heard a spine described as beautiful before.  Is it because it's not covered in color-breaking ticks? 

3.  "Perfect cover alignment" - No it isn't.  What are we talking about here anyway, wrap/centering?  Either way, imperfect.

4.  "Bone white pages" - No they aren't.  It has the designation "white pages" but that definitely doesn't mean white like bone.

5.  "Brand new perfect CGC holder" - No it isn't.  I looked at it for 10 seconds and saw scuffs.

6.  "Structurally extremely impressive" - What does that even mean?  

I also like how it talks about how "EVERY" 9.8 that has come to market has set a new record, and mentions that the last record was $138k--then closes at 125.  Glad this one broke the streak. 

The only thing missing is the ghost of Stan Lee appeared and blessed it by farting magic comic pixy dust on the book.

[Robot Man]

I am primarily a somewhat advanced GA collector in a fairly volatile market. I have seen the market especially for scarce books explode in the past few years.

In the past 6 months or so, I have seen prices stagnate a bit. There is still demand for this material but I think folks have gotton very picky as to what they are spending their money on. Uncertain times and a glut of more common books out there have probably contributed to this.

The Promise collection is a perfect example. They hit at the right time. But, as I suspected, turning a quick profit on them has proved to be a problem for sellers.

I don’t see vintage comics especially keys or classic covers going down just leveling off. 

[valiantman]

On 10/20/2022 at 4:33 PM, Poekaymon said:

4.  "Bone white pages" - No they aren't.  It has the designation "white pages" but that definitely doesn't mean white like bone.

So impressive to have pages that match the color of bones. 

[paqart]

Speaking of prices going up, I just lost an auction for a newsstand edition of Thor V2 #17. It was a special version of the comic I hadn't seen before, so I bid it up to $42, was going to go to $50 or even $70 but got a phone call and forgot about the auction, lost it for $42.03. This is normally a $5 comic. So my opinion, there's still growth. Maybe not everywhere but somewhere.

[valiantman]

On 10/20/2022 at 8:10 PM, D2 said:

Yes, exactly. It’s not that I don’t want a copy, I do, but the value of how much I would have to pay compared to how many are on the census feels wrong. I feel like it’s all too high.

I created "CGCEMC" for this type of comparison. You're right that it's not enough to look at the price of books without including the census.

Comparing two books across any age is possible (at least for argument's sake), and if a book is too high, it won't sit in the right spot on this list: CGCEMC.com

Hulk #181 is currently sitting at #5, and AF #15 is at #4. Personally, I think AF #15 always belongs in the top 3, but it's not a calculation that cares about opinions. It's straight outta Compton Census (and GPA).

Edited October 21, 2022 by valiantman

[D2]

On 10/21/2022 at 3:39 PM, valiantman said:

I created "CGCEMC" for this type of comparison. You're right that it's not enough to look at the price of books without including the census.

Comparing two books across any age is possible (at least for argument's sake), and if a book is too high, it won't sit in the right spot on this list: CGCEMC.com

Hulk #181 is currently sitting at #5, and AF #15 is at #4. Personally, I think AF #15 always belongs in the top 3, but it's not a calculation that cares about opinions. It's straight outta Compton Census (and GPA).

okay

this looks awesome. wow

well done. I am going to take a look at this and I am sure I will have many more questions

[speedcake]

For considerably much more minor keys than IH 181, seems like prices for many of them are not just leveling but falling? For example I'm looking at a Tales of Suspense #52 cgc 4.0 currently listed on the boards right now and was surprised when I checked GPA on it. pretty much  a free fall, as the last couple of sales are near 2019 prices, less than half what the book was selling for in the same grade last year.  It is just one example, but its a pretty "hot" key and a nice book in any silver age collection normally but got a huge bump during the covid madness and due to the film.

 

Edited October 21, 2022 by speedcake

[Microchip]

On 10/22/2022 at 12:38 AM, D2 said:

 

And I think most books on this list are overpriced.

The difference between the housing market and stock market in comparison to the comic market, from what I can tell, is when there are oddities and inconsistencies, like pricing DOUBLING in a year, or a loss of 75% from an investment, in the housing market and stock market, people freak out trying to understand, even the minutia of details...

In the comic market, people gloss over it, and still talk about how healthy and bulletproof their investments are. It's dangerous.

No one is actively comparing comic collecting to the likes of the housing market, and no one is telling people not to diversify their risk in different investment categories.

I'm not sure what you're trying to achieve here.  

Do comics not provide periodic outstanding results, yes.

Are they guaranteed, most certainly not.  

Is there risk, 100%.

Will key's provide a safer level of risk, yes.

Knowing all of that, you simply spend what you are comfortable with.

And this is where you issue sits, seeing other people's comfort level, but it's at a level this uncomfortable for you.

 

[D2]

On 10/21/2022 at 4:10 PM, Microchip said:

No one is actively comparing comic collecting to the likes of the housing market, and no one is telling people not to diversify their risk in different investment categories.

I'm not sure what you're trying to achieve here.  

Do comics not provide periodic outstanding results, yes.

Are they guaranteed, most certainly not.  

Is there risk, 100%.

Will key's provide a safer level of risk, yes.

Knowing all of that, you simply spend what you are comfortable with.

And this is where you issue sits, seeing other people's comfort level, but it's at a level this uncomfortable for you.

 

Fair.

It reminds me of the debate I frequently have with a friend, where I believe heavily on the landlord model, buying property and renting it out, where a friend of mine sees too much risk being a landlord, and will actively avoid the rental market as a course of income.

It's not that I can't be swayed, I'd like to think, anyway, but for books like Hulk 181, in specific, it is certainly a book that defies a lot of what we talk about. It is a unicorn in the sense that, it hosts value being a 1st appearance of a top tier character, it has longevity, and demand, yet also has a high print run, with numerous 9.8s available... it's a walking contradiction, while also being a marvel (no pun intended).

Truly, it's one of the only books I had an opportunity to buy in and now, am disgruntled to have missed the boat. So, I want the book, but I also have expectations.

That's the thing with this hobby too... we all have different bars and limits that are arbitrary to others. Some people hate the SS, some people only buy low grades, some people only buy high... almost everyone seemingly hates green labels... lol, anyway, I get what you mean. You're right, everyone's bar is different. Not even higher/lower, but different.

[badback83]

On 10/21/2022 at 3:08 PM, valiantman said:

So impressive to have pages that match the color of bones. 

I’ve never understood when people say “bone white”.  Makes me cringe.

[paqart]

On 10/21/2022 at 4:20 PM, DocHoppus182 said:

I’ve never understood when people say “bone white”.  Makes me cringe.

I feel the same way when people describe other people as "White", "Black", "Yellow", "Brown", "Red", or "of color". I can tell you as an artist, anatomist, photographer, and co-founder of an academy that all healthy human skin tones are a shade of orange. Some are less saturated than others and some have significantly lower luminosity but no matter where you are from, your skin is in the orange hue range. Some do lean slightly toward yellow or red but in both cases without leaving "orange".

[COI]

On 10/21/2022 at 9:38 AM, D2 said:

 

And I think most books on this list are overpriced.

I do, I really do. I think there are many people hoarding many many copies of books, and there is a substantial age category band of collectors, interested in this very specific area.

You and @COI are comparing a book like AF15 to H181, which are two different books. Aside from the popularity of the character, which can be argued in both ways if they are on equal playing field, are not created equally from a market perspective.

Most of these books on this list had a spike, and now these books are double? their values? double? regardless of what they were worth in 2019? double? 

X-Men 266, Blue 9.8, $465, THE FOLLOWING YEAR: $995

Amazing Spider-Man 129, $11,600, THE FOLLOWING YEAR: $32,000

Wolverine 1, $375, THE FOLLOWING YEAR: $850

The list goes on and on, your whole list up there is subject to this doubling, regardless of what the previous price was.

 

My only point is that AF 15 also had a huge spike. And it's also dropping right now in a way H181 actually isn't.

Why is it okay for AF 15 to spike but not H181? If you find it unsettling that they both spiked, fine, I can understand that psychologically because I also found the last two years unsettling. But you seem to think the rules are different for AF 15 than they are for H181, and I'm not sure why you think that other than the census numbers, which you keep referencing. That's all I was responding to. I said nothing about long term investment, the health of the market or anything like that. I'm not cheerleading for books, nor am I suggesting people buy in, sell off, or anything in-between.

I see no reason why AF 15 can't be compared to H181 as key books. A copy of AF 15 isn't the Gutenberg bible, it was published 11 years before Hulk 181 and there are less available. That difference in availability is why you have to pay roughly 10x more for an AF 15 than a H181 in comparable grades. That's all.

[squidmo2000]

On 10/21/2022 at 3:39 PM, valiantman said:

I created "CGCEMC" for this type of comparison. You're right that it's not enough to look at the price of books without including the census.

Comparing two books across any age is possible (at least for argument's sake), and if a book is too high, it won't sit in the right spot on this list: CGCEMC.com

Hulk #181 is currently sitting at #5, and AF #15 is at #4. Personally, I think AF #15 always belongs in the top 3, but it's not a calculation that cares about opinions. It's straight outta Compton Census (and GPA).

Great job,valiantman.......much easier to wrap my head around the graphs,total graded in each grade,and average grades.GPA should hire you,thanks......

[D2]

On 10/21/2022 at 4:34 PM, COI said:

My only point is that AF 15 also had a huge spike. And it's also dropping right now in a way H181 actually isn't.

Why is it okay for AF 15 to spike but not H181? If you find it unsettling that they both spiked, fine, I can understand that psychologically because I also found the last two years unsettling. But you seem to think the rules are different for AF 15 than they are for H181, and I'm not sure why you think that other than the census numbers, which you keep referencing. That's all I was responding to. I said nothing about long term investment, the health of the market or anything like that. I'm not cheerleading for books, nor am I suggesting people buy in, sell off, or anything in-between.

I see no reason why AF 15 can't be compared to H181 as key books. A copy of AF 15 isn't the Gutenberg bible, it was published 11 years before Hulk 181 and there are less available. That difference in availability is why you have to pay roughly 10x more for an AF 15 than a H181 in comparable grades. That's all.

Well, I don't know if I can agree with everything you are saying. 

I don't believe AF15 is dropping in a way H181 isn't, when 2 9.8 Hulk 181s sold for 75% less than market value, 2 weeks ago.

You are also comparing a silver age versus a bronze age book, which means, that the entire industry as a whole is different.

I actually argue you are comparing apples to oranges, because comic collecting, and comic hoarding, pricing, after market interest, really didn't start until 1969.

There are some really fun articles you can read on, about the history and origins of comic collecting. The Overstreet price guide was first published in 1970, which is also considered to be the keystone in the origins of the collecting market.

Anyway, I'm sure you don't want a history lesson, and I apologize for being preachy, but my overarching point is, there is a fundamental difference in the entire community and comic industry, from 1962 to 1974.

I won't even begin to talk about how Wolverine wasn't even really a relevant character until... 1978? X-Men 109? 

 

Either way, I do understand what you mean, yes, they can be compared, but Hulk 181 raw copies lurk, and AF 15 raw copies are gems.

[COI]

On 10/21/2022 at 5:07 PM, D2 said:

Well, I don't know if I can agree with everything you are saying. 

I don't believe AF15 is dropping in a way H181 isn't, when 2 9.8 Hulk 181s sold for 75% less than market value, 2 weeks ago.

You are also comparing a silver age versus a bronze age book, which means, that the entire industry as a whole is different.

I actually argue you are comparing apples to oranges, because comic collecting, and comic hoarding, pricing, after market interest, really didn't start until 1969.

There are some really fun articles you can read on, about the history and origins of comic collecting. The Overstreet price guide was first published in 1970, which is also considered to be the keystone in the origins of the collecting market.

Anyway, I'm sure you don't want a history lesson, and I apologize for being preachy, but my overarching point is, there is a fundamental difference in the entire community and comic industry, from 1962 to 1974.

I won't even begin to talk about how Wolverine wasn't even really a relevant character until... 1978? X-Men 109? 

 

Either way, I do understand what you mean, yes, they can be compared, but Hulk 181 raw copies lurk, and AF 15 raw copies are gems.

I really don't want to beat a dead horse here, so I'm going to respond to this and leave it here.

Two 9.8s sold for significantly less in no small part because the geniuses behind these sales, whether the consignors, auction houses, or both, decided that there could be three 9.8s for auction at once at a time where the market is receding, and somehow, that was okay. You have to take circumstances like that into account when you look at prices realized. That's a liquidity issue. Do you really think three NM/NM+ AF 15s being auction off in the same week would each hit record highs? When you get to six figure+ pricing, there's inherent volatility because the pool of buyers is way, way smaller. Timing and poor strategy is enough to bungle sales for even the best and rarest books.

You're also only looking at two 9.8 sales and ignoring the rest of the market, so you're cherry-picking data. Please find me examples of lower grade or mid-grade H181s dropping by 50-75%. What I can show you is an AF 15 that just sold on Heritage in mid-grade for about 50% under its peak. So again, you're cherry-picking your examples.

Finally, you're not addressing my main point which is, yes there is a difference between books published between 1962 and 1974, and this difference is reflected in the fact that a mid-grade H181 is mid 4 figures, while a mid-grade AF 15 is in the mid-5 to low 6 figures.  Is that not a big enough difference in price for you to signify the oh so exalted status of AF 15? 

[Dick Pontoon]

On 10/21/2022 at 5:29 PM, COI said:

Two 9.8s sold for significantly less in no small part because the geniuses behind these sales, whether the consignors, auction houses, or both, decided that there could be three 9.8s for auction at once at a time where the market is receding, and somehow, that was okay. You have to take circumstances like that into account when you look at prices realized. That's a liquidity issue. Do you really think three NM/NM+ AF 15s being auction off in the same week would each hit record highs? When you get to six figure+ pricing, there's inherent volatility because the pool of buyers is way, way smaller. Timing and poor strategy is enough to bungle sales for even the best and rarest books.

 

I don't swim in the 9.8 pool of fancy keys and don't follow them closely, but I would like to add in that from what I see, for about 5-6 years yellow label Hulk #181s were selling for about $25k. Those recent two sales at about $50k were double the previous average and the highest paid for a SS IH #181 to date unless I'm missing something.

I'm in agreement with COI but also think those last two sales don't look like a precipitous drop to me.

Edited October 21, 2022 by Dick Pontoon

[D2]

On 10/21/2022 at 5:29 PM, COI said:

I really don't want to beat a dead horse here, so I'm going to respond to this and leave it here.

Two 9.8s sold for significantly less in no small part because the geniuses behind these sales, whether the consignors, auction houses, or both, decided that there could be three 9.8s for auction at once at a time where the market is receding, and somehow, that was okay. You have to take circumstances like that into account when you look at prices realized. That's a liquidity issue. Do you really think three NM/NM+ AF 15s being auction off in the same week would each hit record highs? When you get to six figure+ pricing, there's inherent volatility because the pool of buyers is way, way smaller. Timing and poor strategy is enough to bungle sales for even the best and rarest books.

You're also only looking at two 9.8 sales and ignoring the rest of the market, so you're cherry-picking data. Please find me examples of lower grade or mid-grade H181s dropping by 50-75%. What I can show you is an AF 15 that just sold on Heritage in mid-grade for about 50% under its peak. So again, you're cherry-picking your examples.

Finally, you're not addressing my main point which is, yes there is a difference between books published between 1962 and 1974, and this difference is reflected in the fact that a mid-grade H181 is mid 4 figures, while a mid-grade AF 15 is in the mid-5 to low 6 figures.  Is that not a big enough difference in price for you to signify the oh so exalted status of AF 15? 

But I did address your main point. You just didn’t like the answer. 
People hoarded and continue to hoard Hulk 181. Further to another boardie’s point where people are trying to avoid flooding a market with that book. 
Hulk 181 is a more comparable book to ASM 300. 
 

You’re going to find more and more and more books of Hulk 181 as time goes on, and AF 15, and other books of that generation and earlier, are just, unavailable.