Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[lou_fine]

On 2/26/2023 at 8:22 PM, comicnoir said:

That girl's going to catch her death of cold.

Well, obviously you didn't see the follow-up variant cover where she loses the rest of her clothing due to the heat she's feeling, because Iike I said, John Carter (our hero to the rescue for the damsel in distress) is really in there somewhere on the cover giving her relief from her distress.    

Edited February 27, 2023 by lou_fine

[Aman619]

my late comments on the upcoming demise of comic book collecting and values:

1)  The future always looks grim for our hobby. But that's just myopia... we can't see clearly.  Its always demographics that will kill comics, or the end of the MCU which has been the latest catalyst on prices.  Doomsday has always been "around the corner"...  always a few decades off...

2)  Yes, the current generations after the Boomers are smaller in number than the Boomers, but they have grown up with peak comics awareness... NOT as a geeky loser secret hobby.  And the Boomers will be handing over their saved up TRILLIONS In the next decade to these kids, so they won't be so broke anymore.

3)  I always state in these arguments that our little hobby is VERY little and has ALWAYS been a small group of collectors.  We arent that many people compared to the general population.  More of late certainly due to the cultural acceptance and eagerness of the superhero Movies. And when the movies lose steam, if they ever do, the "right" comics themselves will hold value as collectibles of proven value.  There have always been enough people interested in buying comics to keep the hobby profitable and surviving. Not only for the cheap stuff, but also our new Million dollar class of buyers.

4) Its fun to bet against the hobby though, right? We have all faced the fears of its impending doom.  The winners though have been the ones who weren't afraid and refused to be Chicken Littles about it,  kept collecting, not selling, and doing just fine.  Will it all come crashing down?  probably. But probably not by itself! ALL collectibles will be hit by whatever it is that kills comics is my prediction.  And we all can point to too many BIG life changing events on the horizon to do just that right? 

[Westy Steve]

On 2/27/2023 at 1:32 AM, Aman619 said:

 

2)  Yes, the current generations after the Boomers are smaller in number than the Boomers, but they have grown up with peak comics awareness... NOT as a geeky loser secret hobby.  

Solid point!  I’m bullish, but didn’t consider this. 

[Poekaymon]

On 2/27/2023 at 1:32 AM, Aman619 said:

my late comments on the upcoming demise of comic book collecting and values:

1)  The future always looks grim for our hobby. But that's just myopia... we can't see clearly.  Its always demographics that will kill comics, or the end of the MCU which has been the latest catalyst on prices.  Doomsday has always been "around the corner"...  always a few decades off...

4) Its fun to bet against the hobby though, right? We have all faced the fears of its impending doom.  The winners though have been the ones who weren't afraid and refused to be Chicken Littles about it,  kept collecting, not selling, and doing just fine.  Will it all come crashing down?  probably. But probably not by itself! ALL collectibles will be hit by whatever it is that kills comics is my prediction.  And we all can point to too many BIG life changing events on the horizon to do just that right? 

Personally, I don't think doomsday is coming and I'm not betting against the hobby.  I think most people agree that superheroes, as a concept, will stick around, and the MCU, or its successor, will keep pumping stuff out, and comics, as a media form, will exist for some time.  I'm just a skeptical that in the future, young people today, or those who have not yet been born, will be drawn to 20th century comics with enough gusto to replace all us old folks for whom comics were so vital.  Doesn't mean the end is near, or that you can't do well in the short term.  But I would have to call the long term outlook... negative.  

Disclosure: I have no intention of selling (or buying) anything at this point, so I really have no skin in the game.  Will always have a soft spot for comics so I hope I'm wrong.       

[theCapraAegagrus]

On 2/27/2023 at 1:32 AM, Aman619 said:

my late comments on the upcoming demise of comic book collecting and values:

1)  The future always looks grim for our hobby. But that's just myopia... we can't see clearly.  Its always demographics that will kill comics, or the end of the MCU which has been the latest catalyst on prices.  Doomsday has always been "around the corner"...  always a few decades off...

2)  Yes, the current generations after the Boomers are smaller in number than the Boomers, but they have grown up with peak comics awareness... NOT as a geeky loser secret hobby.  And the Boomers will be handing over their saved up TRILLIONS In the next decade to these kids, so they won't be so broke anymore.

3)  I always state in these arguments that our little hobby is VERY little and has ALWAYS been a small group of collectors.  We arent that many people compared to the general population.  More of late certainly due to the cultural acceptance and eagerness of the superhero Movies. And when the movies lose steam, if they ever do, the "right" comics themselves will hold value as collectibles of proven value.  There have always been enough people interested in buying comics to keep the hobby profitable and surviving. Not only for the cheap stuff, but also our new Million dollar class of buyers.

4) Its fun to bet against the hobby though, right? We have all faced the fears of its impending doom.  The winners though have been the ones who weren't afraid and refused to be Chicken Littles about it,  kept collecting, not selling, and doing just fine.  Will it all come crashing down?  probably. But probably not by itself! ALL collectibles will be hit by whatever it is that kills comics is my prediction.  And we all can point to too many BIG life changing events on the horizon to do just that right? 

ok boomer

[DC#]

With ComicLink starting to close its latest auction this week with ComicConnect not far behind.....a quick pulse from last night's Heritage.     I will note that there were a lot of Cream copies in those early Spideys.   And there was a huge run of Fantastic Fours from the low 100s through mid-200s in 9.8/9.6.     With so many sequential books in the same grade I assume someone liquidated their collection......

 

[Aman619]

On 2/27/2023 at 11:21 AM, Poekaymon said:

Personally, I don't think doomsday is coming and I'm not betting against the hobby.  I think most people agree that superheroes, as a concept, will stick around, and the MCU, or its successor, will keep pumping stuff out, and comics, as a media form, will exist for some time.  I'm just a skeptical that in the future, young people today, or those who have not yet been born, will be drawn to 20th century comics with enough gusto to replace all us old folks for whom comics were so vital.  Doesn't mean the end is near, or that you can't do well in the short term.  But I would have to call the long term outlook... negative.  

Disclosure: I have no intention of selling (or buying) anything at this point, so I really have no skin in the game.  Will always have a soft spot for comics so I hope I'm wrong.       

Long term outlook IS negative for nearly everything, in ways no one can predict accurately. Times change, interests change. Peoples economic circumstances change.  But central to my thoughts are that there just arent that many people out there even now who collect comics. Comics collecting's future is insulated by our small numbers.  In all my years collecting (yes, Boomer!) I rarely IF EVER meet ANYONE who collects comics!  I see them at Cons, in stores, and read their posts online. Thats it. If we all disappeared, the world economy wouldn't blink, meaning we can keep moving along in our little corner as long as new generations -- enough new people -- join in.  That looked impossible 20 years ago here on the boards in our myopic view of then current comics industry after the bust of the late 90s.  Then CGC and bronze age collectors spoke up strongly with their wallets. And newer generation coming of age in the MCU piled on creating the Modern Collecting world aligned with their interests.  So, lets see what happens.  Or rather-- you come whisper to me in my grave if we survived or not! 

[lou_fine]

On 2/27/2023 at 9:21 AM, DC# said:

With so many sequential books in the same grade I assume someone liquidated their collection......

Although there's still certainly a lot of red in your 1-year plus chart below, the point to take into considertion here is that if that "someone" who liquidated their collection had actually purchased it years ago, everything would be a big shining green light for them.    

[Poekaymon]

On 2/27/2023 at 12:31 PM, Aman619 said:

Long term outlook IS negative for nearly everything, in ways no one can predict accurately. Times change, interests change. Peoples economic circumstances change. 

I mean, in a cosmic sense, yes.  The sun will consume the earth at some point.  But if we're speaking of investments, over the next 50 years or so, I disagree that long term outlook is negative for nearly everything--housing and the broad stock market, for instance.

[Gonzimodo]

On 2/24/2023 at 4:28 PM, the blob said:

Play the long game and don't stress it. ASM 129 went from being a $250-300 book in the early 90s to $25-50 in 99/2000 and then back up again. 

I bought mine at Half-Price Books back in the late 90s for about $60.  It was priced at $75 and sat there untouched for at least a month as I waited for a 15% off coupon to become valid, so I got very lucky that nobody else snatched it up.  Even so, I was kind of afraid that I had overpaid for it. 

[DC#]

On 2/27/2023 at 10:28 AM, lou_fine said:

Although there's still certainly a lot of red in your 1-year plus chart below, the point to take into considertion here is that if that "someone" who liquidated their collection had actually purchased it years ago, everything would be a big shining green light for them.    

No doubt.   And I wasn't intending to link the string of FF books to the auction performance - just an observation about such a huge volume of sequential books.    I have seen similar large groups of Copper Daredevil and Bronze/Copper Hulk books - all in 9.8 - over the past 4-6 weeks    

[drdonaldblake1]

On 2/25/2023 at 8:28 AM, the blob said:

Play the long game and don't stress it. ASM 129 went from being a $250-300 book in the early 90s to $25-50 in 99/2000 and then back up again. 

Are you sure ASM 129 was $50 in 2000??

I never recall it being that price since the early 80 s

[lou_fine]

On 2/27/2023 at 11:41 AM, drdonaldblake1 said:

On 2/24/2023 at 1:28 PM, the blob said:

Play the long game and don't stress it. ASM 129 went from being a $250-300 book in the early 90s to $25-50 in 99/2000 and then back up again. 

Are you sure ASM 129 was $50 in 2000??

I never recall it being that price since the early 80 s

I think it really depends on the condition you are talking about.  

FWIW: It should be pointed out that Overstreet had ASM 129 in top of guide for '91 with a valuation of $275 and by '98, it was down to $125. 

Interesting to note that during this same time period, TMNT #1 in top of guide took a even larger drop from $325 in '91 down to only $125 in 98.  

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 2/27/2023 at 3:06 PM, lou_fine said:

I think it really depends on the condition you are talking about.  

FWIW: It should be pointed out that Overstreet had ASM 129 in top of guide for '91 with a valuation of $275 and by '98, it was down to $125. 

Interesting to note that during this same time period, TMNT #1 in top of guide took a even larger drop from $325 in '91 down to only $125 in 98.  

Market was dying.  Then CGC opened its doors & boom....market was hot again. 

[Bookery]

On 2/27/2023 at 1:32 AM, Aman619 said:

my late comments on the upcoming demise of comic book collecting and values:

1)  The future always looks grim for our hobby. But that's just myopia... we can't see clearly.  Its always demographics that will kill comics, or the end of the MCU which has been the latest catalyst on prices.  Doomsday has always been "around the corner"...  always a few decades off...

2)  Yes, the current generations after the Boomers are smaller in number than the Boomers, but they have grown up with peak comics awareness... NOT as a geeky loser secret hobby.  And the Boomers will be handing over their saved up TRILLIONS In the next decade to these kids, so they won't be so broke anymore.

3)  I always state in these arguments that our little hobby is VERY little and has ALWAYS been a small group of collectors.  We arent that many people compared to the general population.  More of late certainly due to the cultural acceptance and eagerness of the superhero Movies. And when the movies lose steam, if they ever do, the "right" comics themselves will hold value as collectibles of proven value.  There have always been enough people interested in buying comics to keep the hobby profitable and surviving. Not only for the cheap stuff, but also our new Million dollar class of buyers.

4) Its fun to bet against the hobby though, right? We have all faced the fears of its impending doom.  The winners though have been the ones who weren't afraid and refused to be Chicken Littles about it,  kept collecting, not selling, and doing just fine.  Will it all come crashing down?  probably. But probably not by itself! ALL collectibles will be hit by whatever it is that kills comics is my prediction.  And we all can point to too many BIG life changing events on the horizon to do just that right? 

"The straw-man argument is always presented that comics (or any pop culture collectibles market) will not "crash", when no one ever made the "crash" argument to begin with.  But there is, and always will be, a slow ebb of declining interest as cultures and interests change over time." -- Friday, Feb. 24. 

Just sayin'.

[the blob]

On 2/27/2023 at 2:41 PM, drdonaldblake1 said:

Are you sure ASM 129 was $50 in 2000??

I never recall it being that price since the early 80 s

Folks here insist that nice ASM 129s were on ebay in its early days for $50 or so, raw, of course. I don't remember because I wasn't looking for it then, I was mostly doing GA and some early SA then and buying 25 cent box books

[lou_fine]

On 2/27/2023 at 1:38 PM, the blob said:

On 2/27/2023 at 11:41 AM, drdonaldblake1 said:

Are you sure ASM 129 was $50 in 2000??

I never recall it being that price since the early 80 s

Folks here insist that nice ASM 129s were on ebay in its early days for $50 or so, raw, of course. I don't remember because I wasn't looking for it then, I was mostly doing GA and some early SA then and buying 25 cent box books

Well, I clearly remember bemoaning the fact that Spidey 129 had dropped by such a huge amount and then thinking to myself that I had missed such a great opportunity to unload the book when it was "up there" before it came crashing back down to Earth.    

[COI]

On 2/27/2023 at 4:10 PM, Bookery said:

"The straw-man argument is always presented that comics (or any pop culture collectibles market) will not "crash", when no one ever made the "crash" argument to begin with.  But there is, and always will be, a slow ebb of declining interest as cultures and interests change over time." -- Friday, Feb. 24. 

Just sayin'.

Again, correct.

That we may be in peak times due to a confluence of undeniably incredible circumstances does not equal "crash" or "doomsday". 

Yes, no one saw the MCU or lockdowns or historic run of low interest rates coming 20 years ago, and it may be the case that some other unforeseen factors may intervene in the next 20 to give comics more life, but that can go both ways; some unforeseen circumstances may intervene to work AGAINST the market as well. You can hypothesize infinitely in either direction.

What we do know is that the demographic shift is coming, and that the last 14 years of the MCU has been unprecedented, both in the history of film and in pop culture generally. It's hard to see how it could be replicated or sustained going forward. Call it regression to the mean. We also know that the MCU coincided with - again - 4 generations of collectors stacking on top of each other, in an environment where "free" money was flowing.

This hobby is young; it hasn't reached true cultural significance or maturity yet. The original generation of collectors is still around; the passing of the torch hasn't happened yet. To wonder about the transition - in light of the generational shifts and other factors I just mentioned - is rational from where I'm sitting, and can't be reduced to 'chicken littles at it again' and past-as-prologue arguments, especially since this hobby barely has any past to draw on in the larger scheme of things.

This is pop-culture, not history. So even putting aside the demographics and economics, what is popular and what is culturally relevant is always in flux. 

[Microchip]

On 2/27/2023 at 5:32 PM, Aman619 said:

2)  Yes, the current generations after the Boomers are smaller in number than the Boomers, but they have grown up with peak comics awareness... NOT as a geeky loser secret hobby.  And the Boomers will be handing over their saved up TRILLIONS In the next decade to these kids, so they won't be so broke anymore.

3)  I always state in these arguments that our little hobby is VERY little and has ALWAYS been a small group of collectors.  We arent that many people compared to the general population.  More of late certainly due to the cultural acceptance and eagerness of the superhero Movies. And when the movies lose steam, if they ever do, the "right" comics themselves will hold value as collectibles of proven value.  There have always been enough people interested in buying comics to keep the hobby profitable and surviving. Not only for the cheap stuff, but also our new Million dollar class of buyers.

4) Its fun to bet against the hobby though, right? We have all faced the fears of its impending doom.  The winners though have been the ones who weren't afraid and refused to be Chicken Littles about it,  kept collecting, not selling, and doing just fine.  Will it all come crashing down?  probably. But probably not by itself! ALL collectibles will be hit by whatever it is that kills comics is my prediction.  And we all can point to too many BIG life changing events on the horizon to do just that right? 

 

On 2/28/2023 at 9:26 AM, COI said:

Yes, no one saw the MCU or lockdowns or historic run of low interest rates coming 20 years ago, and it may be the case that some other unforeseen factors may intervene in the next 20 to give comics more life, but that can go both ways; some unforeseen circumstances may intervene to work AGAINST the market as well. You can hypothesize infinitely in either direction.

 

On 2/28/2023 at 9:26 AM, COI said:

This hobby is young; it hasn't reached true cultural significance or maturity yet. The original generation of collectors is still around; the passing of the torch hasn't happened yet. To wonder about the transition - in light of the generational shifts and other factors I just mentioned - is rational from where I'm sitting, and can't be reduced to 'chicken littles at it again' and past-as-prologue arguments, especially since this hobby barely has any past to draw on in the larger scheme of things.

This is pop-culture, not history. So even putting aside the demographics and economics, what is popular and what is culturally relevant is always in flux. 

Looking at the intrinsic factors of comic books now:

We keep looking at old paradigm of people going into comic book shops as their first port of call to read/collect/appreciate comic books.    

With the advent of CGC, the reading part has been taken away, and everyone cried it would be the death of comic books when they came along.   This hasn't been the case at all.   And now, where new collectors have joined the hobby entirely in the CGC era, where reading comic books isn't the first consideration at all.    So the decline in LCS's, or raw sales numbers isn't the prominent factor in determining the longevity, and possible flourishing of the hobby.

People are coming from the cinematic universe, they know the stories all have their 'origins' in comic books.  A good number of them want to be a part of that history, nostalgia, and cultural phenom.   That in itself, thanks too the scale of the MCU to date, has decades to play out.

Edited February 28, 2023 by Microchip

[MAR1979]

Quantum Computing is always 10 year away.