Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[Vixom]

On 10/7/2021 at 4:30 PM, Wolverinex said:

I had no idea comiclink offered the service. How much do they charge?

Nothing!!! (They take the cost of slabbing the book out of the money they pay you at auction end) I sent them books, they handled the cgc. They will even recommend ones to get the cva sticker. Regardless of what I think about the sticker personally, I got the sticker and was glad I did. I marked books I wanted the sticker for and they had others I didn't plan on getting it for but did anyways and yes, get the sticker. Or not but I am a fan of it. 

[DC#]

On 10/7/2021 at 10:30 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Interesting.  I look at it differently -- the gap between 9.8 and 9.6, or 9.6 and 9.4, or 9.0 and 8.0 (and so on) keeps growing and growing, which means the returns are higher for higher grades.  I believe the data bears this out across the ages.  To the extent that anyone harbors fear in the back of their mind that an inevitable cooling off or correction is coming, it stands to reason that higher-grade books (and, to the point I was making earlier, especially books that are genuinely short supply) will do a much better job of holding their value.  So yes, it costs more to invest at the upper end but it's also a much, much better bet.

I want to dig deeper into some of the spreads as well.   I would've guessed that % spreads between most grades except maybe the 9.8/9.6 stuff would have remained fairly constant over time - noting that a snapshot at any moment in time might show something funky due to a new high-water mark in one grade that has yet to impact the adjacent grades.    I did a very casual look at IH181 between 6.5 - 7.5 - 8.5...and while the % spread between 6.5 and 7.5 has been gone up a little bit between 2018 and now (but mostly steady) - the spread between 7.5 and 8.5 actually dropped by half.   It was running around 40% in 2018 and is now down to 20% - and the 90 day was down closer to 10% (though I appreciate that this market is somewhat volatile these days so the 90 day may be nothing to hang your hat on).    Noticed some of the same drop in % spreads on low-mid to lower grades of AF15.   

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 10/7/2021 at 1:37 PM, valiantman said:

Many examples are the opposite of this advice.

https://comics.gpanalysis.com/try-out/sales-data/41/181

You could get 10 copies of CGC 6.0 Hulk #181 for $4,000 in 2010.  They'd be worth $55,000 today.  You could sell 1, get all your investment back and hold 9 of them.

You could get 1 copy of CGC 9.6 Hulk #181 for $4,000 in 2010.  It would be worth $30,000 today.  You can't get your investment back without selling the whole thing.

If only the system had some kind of fractional sale options, it would be possible to get your original investment back and hang onto the majority of the book worth half as much from traditional investing. 

That's an interesting observation, thanks for sharing it.

I've already made clear in this thread that I'm not the kind of guy who would want 10 copies of the same book, much less 10 mid-grade copies of a book in very high supply, mega-key or not.  But if someone wanted to pursue the strategy you outline above, you've shown that it's more than defensible.

In my own collecting / investing, I'm only really paying attention to high-grade books.  That means 9.0-9.4 in the Silver Age, 9.4-9.6 in the Bronze Age, and 9.8 exclusively in the Copper / Modern Age.  I've seen a very clear widening of the gap between 9.4/9.6 prices and 9.6/9.8 prices.  To the extent that the gap may have actually narrowed between grades lower down the scale (say, 6.0/7.0), I'm fascinated to learn that and it's clear I have a blind spot regarding that part of the market.  It's just not a playground I play in.  I continue to feel that mid-grade and low-grade investments in books that exist in very high supply is a riskier proposition if you believe that there will ever be a future correction in the market.

As for fractional shares, I think anyone who's familiar with your many posts on the topic knows where you stand on that.  Not something that appeals to me, but to each their own and caveat emptor.  

Edited October 7, 2021 by Sweet Lou 14

[valiantman]

On 10/7/2021 at 5:38 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

That's an interesting observation, thanks for sharing it.

I've already made clear in this thread that I'm not the kind of guy who would want 10 copies of the same book, much less 10 mid-grade copies of a book in very high supply, mega-key or not.  But if someone wanted to pursue the strategy you outline above, you've shown that it's more than defensible.

In my own collecting / investing, I'm only really paying attention to high-grade books.  That means 9.0-9.4 in the Silver Age, 9.4-9.6 in the Bronze Age, and 9.8 exclusively in the Copper / Modern Age.  I've seen a very clear widening of the gap between 9.4/9.6 prices and 9.6/9.8 prices.  To the extent that the gap may have actually narrowed between grades lower down the scale (say, 6.0/7.0), I'm fascinated to learn that and it's clear I have a blind spot regarding that part of the market.  It's just not a playground I play in.  I continue to feel that mid-grade and low-grade investments in books that exist in very high supply is a riskier proposition if you believe that there will ever be a future correction in the market.

As for fractional shares, I think anyone who's familiar with your many posts on the topic knows where you stand on that.  Not something that appeals to me, but to each their own and caveat emptor.  

Fair enough.  I don't think there's any reason to "limit yourself" to high grade copies of books.  If you believe in the book, then you set a dollar amount and buy whatever you think is worth owning.

In the case of Hulk #181, my example was setting a dollar amount of $4,000 in 2010 and checking the results for 2021.  A stack of CGC 6.0 slabs would have won hands down over a single CGC 9.6.

The same is true for ASM #300... buying as many copies as possible under CGC 8.5 years ago would have paid off many times more than buying CGC 9.8.

Effectively, the market is showing us that if a book is "worth owning", then it is "worth owning in lower grades"... and those lower grades are often very cheap... for a while.

Very cheap moving to a moderate price is usually a multiplier that is much higher than the most expensive moving to more expensive.

It just takes so much extra growth for a book to go from $2,000 to $4,000, when it is very easy for a book to go from $100 to $300, so if the market increase is the goal, having a rule that you only want one copy is basically handicapping yourself.  Choose a dollar limit, not a slab limit.  Then, when you're truly ready to own 1 copy instead of 10, you cash out on 9 of them.

The other thing this shows us is that if a book is only "worth owning" in the highest possible CGC grade, then perhaps the book has no long term prospects. 

If any book is only worth owning in the highest grade (or only if it's a particular variant), then the contents aren't actually being valued at all.

Edited October 7, 2021 by valiantman

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 10/7/2021 at 6:53 PM, valiantman said:

Fair enough.  I don't think there's any reason to "limit yourself" to high grade copies of books.  If you believe in the book, then you set a dollar amount and buy whatever you think is worth owning.

In the case of Hulk #181, my example was setting a dollar amount of $4,000 in 2010 and checking the results for 2021.  A stack of CGC 6.0 slabs would have won hands down over a single CGC 9.6.

The same is true for ASM #300... buying as many copies as possible under CGC 8.5 years ago would have paid off many times more than buying CGC 9.8.

Effectively, the market is showing us that if a book is "worth owning", then it is "worth owning in lower grades"... and those lower grades are often very cheap... for a while.

Very cheap moving to a moderate price is usually a multiplier that is much higher than the most expensive moving to more expensive.

It just takes so much extra growth for a book to go from $2,000 to $4,000, when it is very easy for a book to go from $100 to $300, so if the market increase is the goal, having a rule that you only want one copy is basically handicapping yourself.  Choose a dollar limit, not a slab limit.  Then, when you're truly ready to own 1 copy instead of 10, you cash out on 9 of them.

The other thing this shows us is that if a book is only "worth owning" in the highest possible CGC grade, then perhaps the book has no long term prospects. 

If any book is only worth owning in the highest grade (or only if it's a particular variant), then the contents aren't actually being valued at all.

You're entitled to your own philosophy, but I don't think you should be telling me (or anyone else) whether I'm "handicapping myself" or whether I am valuing the contents of the books I collect (of which, I have read and enjoyed every single one).

I'm fortunate to be able to afford high grade books outright, and therefore I have no interest in low- to mid-grade books or partial ownership of books.  That's what works for me.  I encourage you (and everyone else) to do whatever works for you.

[Microchip]

On 10/8/2021 at 12:07 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

On 10/8/2021 at 9:53 AM, valiantman said:

Fair enough.  I don't think there's any reason to "limit yourself" to high grade copies of books.  If you believe in the book, then you set a dollar amount and buy whatever you think is worth owning.

In the case of Hulk #181, my example was setting a dollar amount of $4,000 in 2010 and checking the results for 2021.  A stack of CGC 6.0 slabs would have won hands down over a single CGC 9.6.

The same is true for ASM #300... buying as many copies as possible under CGC 8.5 years ago would have paid off many times more than buying CGC 9.8.

Effectively, the market is showing us that if a book is "worth owning", then it is "worth owning in lower grades"... and those lower grades are often very cheap... for a while.

Very cheap moving to a moderate price is usually a multiplier that is much higher than the most expensive moving to more expensive.

It just takes so much extra growth for a book to go from $2,000 to $4,000, when it is very easy for a book to go from $100 to $300, so if the market increase is the goal, having a rule that you only want one copy is basically handicapping yourself.  Choose a dollar limit, not a slab limit.  Then, when you're truly ready to own 1 copy instead of 10, you cash out on 9 of them.

The other thing this shows us is that if a book is only "worth owning" in the highest possible CGC grade, then perhaps the book has no long term prospects. 

If any book is only worth owning in the highest grade (or only if it's a particular variant), then the contents aren't actually being valued at all.

Expand  

You're entitled to your own philosophy, but I don't think you should be telling me (or anyone else) whether I'm "handicapping myself" or whether I am valuing the contents of the books I collect (of which, I have read and enjoyed every single one).

I'm fortunate to be able to afford high grade books outright, and therefore I have no interest in low- to mid-grade books or partial ownership of books.  That's what works for me.  I encourage you (and everyone else) to do whatever works for you.

I follow the same philosophy towards books, having started when high grade copies of keys were readily attainable, across all the books we now see booming in price.  It's still a level of collecting I see as "normal".
So looking at guys on so many forums, very happily showing their 4.5 Hulk 181 etc, just doesn't jell for me.  For me, a big part of collecting was finding the rare diamond, an obscure high grade copy of a book.  Thats always been a big aspect, but it didn't necessarily cost you a deposit on a house to do it, like it does now.     So Valiantman's points are very true, from an investor perspective mid to lower grades stack up very well, and we there's so much movement.    Is it the price point, the bigger census numbers, it seems be all of these.   The MCU is driving a whole new era of comic collecting, and comic price rises.

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 10/7/2021 at 9:30 PM, Microchip said:

I follow the same philosophy towards books, having started when high grade copies of keys were readily attainable, across all the books we now see booming in price.  It's still a level of collecting I see as "normal".
So looking at guys on so many forums, very happily showing their 4.5 Hulk 181 etc, just doesn't jell for me.  For me, a big part of collecting was finding the rare diamond, an obscure high grade copy of a book.  Thats always been a big aspect, but it didn't necessarily cost you a deposit on a house to do it, like it does now.     So Valiantman's points are very true, from an investor perspective mid to lower grades stack up very well, and we there's so much movement.    Is it the price point, the bigger census numbers, it seems be all of these.   The MCU is driving a whole new era of comic collecting, and comic price rises.

There are so many motivations for buying comics, and most of us are neither 100% "collector" (by which I mean, focusing purely on sentimental value or "valuing the content") nor 100% "investor" (by which I mean, focusing exclusively on making the most perfectly optimized decisions for making money).  I suspect most of us make individual decisions on both ends of the spectrum on a case-by-case basis, and that many of our decisions are made at some hard-to-pinpoint place along that spectrum.  If every decision were perfectly rational, with no impulse factor, there wouldn't be much fun in this hobby and frankly there are better ways to make money.

If someone shows off a 4.5 Hulk 181 because that's the copy they could afford and they're thrilled to own it, that makes me really happy for them as a fellow collector.  I just love it.  If some dude on Instagram is hyping a 4.5 Hulk 181 because they're trying to flip it, that's a big big yawn for me.  I just don't believe such a copy is worthy of that kind of over-the-top hype.  Moreover, as I've tried to state a few times a few different ways, to the extent that any of us are concerned that there could be a bubble in this market, I am convinced that the first and most severe victims of that bubble will be the people who bought into the hype on unspectacular copies of extremely high-supply books.

Again, each of us has their own perspective -- I respect others' viewpoints and I try to be transparent about my own, which is basically that of a high-grade run collector who has set a goal of putting together a comprehensive, top-tier Silver / Bronze Age Marvel collection.  That gives me a particular approach, even a bias as it regards my own collecting interest and investment choices, and I don't try to hide that.  But even if I had entirely different goals, I would never be comfortable buying (for example) a 7.0 copy of ASM #300 in the current market, knowing that there are literally thousands of 9.6/9.8 copies in the census and an untold number of raw candidates in the current and future CGC pipeline.  And no, pointing out how that 7.0 has grown during this past run-up in the market does not in any way make a convincing argument, at least to me, that such a purchase right now would be a smart move.  In fact, quite the opposite.  Doesn't mean I'm right, but I just think there are much better bets to place.

[Microchip]

On 10/8/2021 at 1:07 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

There are so many motivations for buying comics, and most of us are neither 100% "collector" (by which I mean, focusing purely on sentimental value or "valuing the content") nor 100% "investor" (by which I mean, focusing exclusively on making the most perfectly optimized decisions for making money).  I suspect most of us make individual decisions on both ends of the spectrum on a case-by-case basis, and that many of our decisions are made at some hard-to-pinpoint place along that spectrum.  If every decision were perfectly rational, with no impulse factor, there wouldn't be much fun in this hobby and frankly there are better ways to make money.

If someone shows off a 4.5 Hulk 181 because that's the copy they could afford and they're thrilled to own it, that makes me really happy for them as a fellow collector.  I just love it.  If some dude on Instagram is hyping a 4.5 Hulk 181 because they're trying to flip it, that's a big big yawn for me.  I just don't believe such a copy is worthy of that kind of over-the-top hype.  Moreover, as I've tried to state a few times a few different ways, to the extent that any of us are concerned that there could be a bubble in this market, I am convinced that the first and most severe victims of that bubble will be the people who bought into the hype on unspectacular copies of extremely high-supply books.

Again, each of us has their own perspective -- I respect others' viewpoints and I try to be transparent about my own, which is basically that of a high-grade run collector who has set a goal of putting together a comprehensive, top-tier Silver / Bronze Age Marvel collection.  That gives me a particular approach, even a bias as it regards my own collecting interest and investment choices, and I don't try to hide that.  But even if I had entirely different goals, I would never be comfortable buying (for example) a 7.0 copy of ASM #300 in the current market, knowing that there are literally thousands of 9.6/9.8 copies in the census and an untold number of raw candidates in the current and future CGC pipeline.  And no, pointing out how that 7.0 has grown during this past run-up in the market does not in any way make a convincing argument, at least to me, that such a purchase right now would be a smart move.  In fact, quite the opposite.  Doesn't mean I'm right, but I just think there are much better bets to place.

Very well put, and summarised.

Traditional patterns in the comic market were (people will argue with this) around the ages.   There would be a big upswing in say the SA books as a whole, then buyers would see  the GA, or BA as looking light, and "undervalued" in comparison to what just happened in the SA.   With the MCU explosion, it's a new cycle.   The popular key's attached to the movie franchises are exploding, irrespective of age.    Modern books included, with prices mirroring or exceeding well established price points on SA, and BA keys.    There's seems to be a lot of buyers coming in, targeting the obvious books of interest, and are completely unmoved by population numbers as well.   But as we've heard on other threads, CGC populations look trivial next to the sports card populations, so the books keep climbing despite the obvious warnings ringing in our own heads.  So the buying patterns we're seeing, go against all our best judgement, and understanding of the hobby to date....   

The rest at this point is speculation, climb, sink or stagnate, the market will be interesting to eat ch for the next few years.   The MCU is building fan's, and an era of movie appreciation that will endure for decades from now.   As for the books, who knows.   We know "favourites, and hot books" is a shifting focus.   But trying to predict where things will go is part of the fun too 

 

[BigLeagueCHEW]

Amazing Spider-Man 361 has plummeted in value over the past 6 months. Watched a newsstand copy in 9.8 sell for $760 about a week ago vs. when I sold mine for $1600 a while back.

[thehumantorch]

On 10/7/2021 at 8:07 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

There are so many motivations for buying comics, and most of us are neither 100% "collector" (by which I mean, focusing purely on sentimental value or "valuing the content") nor 100% "investor" (by which I mean, focusing exclusively on making the most perfectly optimized decisions for making money).  I suspect most of us make individual decisions on both ends of the spectrum on a case-by-case basis, and that many of our decisions are made at some hard-to-pinpoint place along that spectrum.  If every decision were perfectly rational, with no impulse factor, there wouldn't be much fun in this hobby and frankly there are better ways to make money.

If someone shows off a 4.5 Hulk 181 because that's the copy they could afford and they're thrilled to own it, that makes me really happy for them as a fellow collector.  I just love it.  If some dude on Instagram is hyping a 4.5 Hulk 181 because they're trying to flip it, that's a big big yawn for me.  I just don't believe such a copy is worthy of that kind of over-the-top hype.  Moreover, as I've tried to state a few times a few different ways, to the extent that any of us are concerned that there could be a bubble in this market, I am convinced that the first and most severe victims of that bubble will be the people who bought into the hype on unspectacular copies of extremely high-supply books.

Again, each of us has their own perspective -- I respect others' viewpoints and I try to be transparent about my own, which is basically that of a high-grade run collector who has set a goal of putting together a comprehensive, top-tier Silver / Bronze Age Marvel collection.  That gives me a particular approach, even a bias as it regards my own collecting interest and investment choices, and I don't try to hide that.  But even if I had entirely different goals, I would never be comfortable buying (for example) a 7.0 copy of ASM #300 in the current market, knowing that there are literally thousands of 9.6/9.8 copies in the census and an untold number of raw candidates in the current and future CGC pipeline.  And no, pointing out how that 7.0 has grown during this past run-up in the market does not in any way make a convincing argument, at least to me, that such a purchase right now would be a smart move.  In fact, quite the opposite.  Doesn't mean I'm right, but I just think there are much better bets to place.

Buy what makes you happy

[MetalPSI]

On 10/7/2021 at 8:46 PM, BigLeagueCHEW said:

Amazing Spider-Man 361 has plummeted in value over the past 6 months. Watched a newsstand copy in 9.8 sell for $760 about a week ago vs. when I sold mine for $1600 a while back.

I sold my 9.6 for 600 bucks 4 months ago

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 10/7/2021 at 10:46 PM, BigLeagueCHEW said:

Amazing Spider-Man 361 has plummeted in value over the past 6 months. Watched a newsstand copy in 9.8 sell for $760 about a week ago vs. when I sold mine for $1600 a while back.

This particular book is obviously a very current example of a movie hype book.  In hindsight I bought a copy of another book in this category, Special Marvel Edition #15, at a not-so-great time.  Should have remembered the old adage that movie books drop hard after the release date.

[BigLeagueCHEW]

On 10/7/2021 at 8:00 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

This particular book is obviously a very current example of a movie hype book.  In hindsight I bought a copy of another book in this category, Special Marvel Edition #15, at a not-so-great time.  Should have remembered the old adage that movie books drop hard after the release date.

That and a market dump, what is it in 9.8 5.5K ish copies? The movie hype brings out sellers

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

The price of every comic book that I have invested in has dropped like a Led Zeppelin, which I do not mind. In hindsight, apparently purchasing 1000 copies of X-Force 1 in 1991 was not a good idea.

[valiantman]

On 10/7/2021 at 8:07 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

You're entitled to your own philosophy, but I don't think you should be telling me (or anyone else) whether I'm "handicapping myself" or whether I am valuing the contents of the books I collect (of which, I have read and enjoyed every single one).

I'm fortunate to be able to afford high grade books outright, and therefore I have no interest in low- to mid-grade books or partial ownership of books.  That's what works for me.  I encourage you (and everyone else) to do whatever works for you.

That's fine, but I only responded to you because you said: 

On 10/7/2021 at 12:30 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Interesting.  I look at it differently -- the gap between 9.8 and 9.6, or 9.6 and 9.4, or 9.0 and 8.0 (and so on) keeps growing and growing, which means the returns are higher for higher grades.  I believe the data bears this out across the ages.  To the extent that anyone harbors fear in the back of their mind that an inevitable cooling off or correction is coming, it stands to reason that higher-grade books (and, to the point I was making earlier, especially books that are genuinely short supply) will do a much better job of holding their value.  So yes, it costs more to invest at the upper end but it's also a much, much better bet.

... and you were quite wrong.  So, my suggestions are not telling anyone to do anything, other than to ignore your suggestions, because what you claim that "data across the ages" shows "higher returns" do not.

You're mad that I tried suggesting something to you that you didn't care for, but don't be mad at me when I point out your advice doesn't stand up to a calculator --- which has no feelings at all.

 

[WolverineX]

On 10/7/2021 at 11:53 PM, BigLeagueCHEW said:

That and a market dump, what is it in 9.8 5.5K ish copies? The movie hype brings out sellers

The question is if this bearish trend due to a correction from the ridiculous prices or if this is the normal seasonal dip as we head towards Christmas?

[Dark Knight]

On 10/8/2021 at 7:42 AM, Wolverinex said:

The question is if this bearish trend due to a correction from the ridiculous prices or if this is the normal seasonal dip as we head towards Christmas?

I guess we will know more in 2022

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 10/8/2021 at 10:33 AM, valiantman said:

That's fine, but I only responded to you because you said: 

... and you were quite wrong.  So, my suggestions are not telling anyone to do anything, other than to ignore your suggestions, because what you claim that "data across the ages" shows "higher returns" do not.

You're mad that I tried suggesting something to you that you didn't care for, but don't be mad at me when I point out your advice doesn't stand up to a calculator --- which has no feelings at all.

 

It’s a real shame you decided to respond like this. I thought I would give interacting with you another chance, but you just can’t stop yourself from being the most insufferable poster on this site.

Seriously, stay away and I will do the same. 

[WolverineX]

On 10/7/2021 at 10:46 PM, BigLeagueCHEW said:

Amazing Spider-Man 361 has plummeted in value over the past 6 months. Watched a newsstand copy in 9.8 sell for $760 about a week ago vs. when I sold mine for $1600 a while back.

Yeah that was one of the books of sports card YouTuber was pumping along with ASM 252. I haven't seen any of his videos recently.  wonder what he is doing now... freaking out?

[MetalPSI]

On 10/8/2021 at 11:03 AM, Wolverinex said:

Yeah that was one of the books of sports card YouTuber was pumping along with ASM 252. I haven't seen any of his videos recently.  wonder what he is doing now... freaking out?

Reminds me of that "eccentric" guy who had all sorts of visual gimmicks and gave stock advice