Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 12/11/2021 at 1:07 PM, DC# said:

 

TOS #52 ... 

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 12/10/2021 at 2:01 PM, MAR1979 said:

Folks this is not just 'seasonal" these are the type of high % drop-offs that show a correction is in progress.

The more bandwagon jumpers see value of their holdings dwindle, the more they will sell and exit the hobby until the next boom. Good riddance IMHO

I don't sell comics so I've no skin in that game but attributing the data to being purely seasonal is denial. BTW the same thing is also occurring in Trading Cards.. Yeah prices are higher than last year and will likley not fall back to those levels, but that may be a book/case by book/case basis?

I hear you and I think there's a lot of truth to what you're saying, but in my buying/bidding I am seeing really mixed results.  There are some books that have stayed consistent in price over the past year or so, and some where I've seen a bit of a correction, but so many are still costing me more than I'd been hoping to spend.

It's not an exact science but segmenting the market might help identify differences in current trends.  For example, my collection basically consists of five market segments:

• Pre-hero Marvels (generally targeting 6.0 or 7.0)
• Very early Marvel Silver Age / keys (generally targeting 9.0)
• Marvel Silver Age (targeting a dwindling handful of upgrades to 9.4)
• Marvel Bronze Age (targeting upgrades from 9.4 to 9.6)
• Marvel Copper / Modern Age (targeting 9.8 on a tiny handful of books that catch my interest)

Because I've mostly checked everything off my list in the other categories, most of my purchases these days fall into the 7.0 PHM category and the 9.6 Bronze Age category.  And in the Bronze Age, I always have a 9.4 to sell when I upgrade to 9.6 so I get to experience both the buyer and seller side of the market.  What I've seen is that Bronze Age books that didn't seem to have much collector interest a couple of years ago are now tougher to find and commanding much higher prices across the board, especially in 9.6 -- the percentage price gap between 9.4 and 9.6 continues to widen.

Copper / Modern books with a very high supply of 9.8s are where I am most careful.  Generally I hunt for auctions and best-offer opportunities because there are too many sellers out there trying to get more than these books are really worth paying for.  With the Bronze 9.6s, a similar principle applies but I will also pounce on anything that's within reason.

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

On 12/11/2021 at 3:43 PM, PKJ said:

I snagged a Hulk 181 to help drive down last sales, knowing my luck two more will sell for 20% lower. If that happens I will have another copy since we call that Averaging down.

I need another copy of Conan 1. For some reason that book is not dipping like I had hoped.

Congratulations!

I am looking to purchase a few comic books and am briefly waiting to see if prices keep trending downward. However, my waiting period is a few days and if I purchase and they drop up to 40% I can live with that/so be it. A 50% drop; that would stink, and I'll say "darn." Why 50% and not, for example, 45%? For me, at least, there is a psychological "damn it" about losing 50% or more of your "comic book investment." However, since I will hold very long term perhaps prices will again climb.

[GermanFan]

When bubbles pop like the stock markets in 2001 the good stuff is usually affected to. Its an exaggeration to the low. Moreover prices eventually have to come down because of demographics. How many new collectors (not short term "investors" or flippers) enter the hobby and how many old guys leave because they die or sell in order to prop up retirement. And moreover even more the world economy is severely damaged since the start of the odd situation and was in dire straits even before that. 

It has to come down. Its just a matter of when. Timing is everything.

 

[MAR1979]

On 12/12/2021 at 8:24 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I hear you and I think there's a lot of truth to what you're saying, but in my buying/bidding I am seeing really mixed results.  There are some books that have stayed consistent in price over the past year or so, and some where I've seen a bit of a correction, but so many are still costing me more than I'd been hoping to spend.

It's not an exact science but segmenting the market might help identify differences in current trends.  For example, my collection basically consists of five market segments:

• Pre-hero Marvels (generally targeting 6.0 or 7.0)
• Very early Marvel Silver Age / keys (generally targeting 9.0)
• Marvel Silver Age (targeting a dwindling handful of upgrades to 9.4)
• Marvel Bronze Age (targeting upgrades from 9.4 to 9.6)
• Marvel Copper / Modern Age (targeting 9.8 on a tiny handful of books that catch my interest)

Because I've mostly checked everything off my list in the other categories, most of my purchases these days fall into the 7.0 PHM category and the 9.6 Bronze Age category.  And in the Bronze Age, I always have a 9.4 to sell when I upgrade to 9.6 so I get to experience both the buyer and seller side of the market.  What I've seen is that Bronze Age books that didn't seem to have much collector interest a couple of years ago are now tougher to find and commanding much higher prices across the board, especially in 9.6 -- the percentage price gap between 9.4 and 9.6 continues to widen.

Copper / Modern books with a very high supply of 9.8s are where I am most careful.  Generally I hunt for auctions and best-offer opportunities because there are too many sellers out there trying to get more than these books are really worth paying for.  With the Bronze 9.6s, a similar principle applies but I will also pounce on anything that's within reason.

Its just the start of correction, time will tell. As with most corrections not everything will be affected the same way and likley the way it does will not match predictions. 

Do remember after the last large scale bust it really took some sectors of the hobby between 1-2 decades to recover - new book sales have never recovered and never will.  My guess is as the Social Media Crowd folks exit this hobby due to losses comics may become very "uncool" to them and little of that "new" money will remain. I believe it was those mostly uninformed* folks who were propping up high census pop copper/modern books.

There will always be hot books and hot characters that go against a bear-ish market - consider those outliers. I know many who confuse outliers with trends, but eventually supply and demand always reigns supreme.

 

* = the Social Media folks jumping on the bandwagon  were being told things from speculators like only buy #1's , only buy 9.8's, and only buy "hot books" they were pushing....   Of course the real money to be made by speculating is purchasing quantities of 8.0's-9.4's cheap and sell them off for multiple of original cost as they ride the 9.8's coattails.  This was done with ASM300, ASM361, Eternals #1, probably Star Wars 1 & 42, Avengers 196, WWBN32, and in Sports Cards think 1986/1987/1988  PSA5,6,7,8,9 Michael Jordan Fleer as prime examples.

Edited December 12, 2021 by MAR1979

[MAR1979]

On 12/11/2021 at 6:03 PM, EastEnd1 said:

Yes, prices of graded comics skyrocketed across the board soon after the introduction of CGC around 2000, reaching jaw-dropping levels for the time (not unlike what we've seen in the last year)... and a few years later began to correct substantially as census figures (and the emerging prevalence of pressing) showed that high grade books weren't as rare as originally thought.  I have run books that I bought in that period that still haven't recovered.  The true keys, however, did not fall back as hard (as one might expect), and have since obviously reached even more jaw-dropping heights.

Same with me on the '"run" books I have dozens that even I paid more for in 2001-2008 than they commanded even in 2020-2021.  A speculator or flipper would who had done the same have moved on to other things rather than comics but I'm a collector.

Edited December 12, 2021 by MAR1979

[DC#]

Here is an example of the roller coaster of what has always been a popular book that is a bit harder to come by in high grades (about 1500 in 9.2 or higher CGC).   Hakes sold a 9.2 in Nov 2019 for $3.2k which was just before the start of the 2020 surge in prices.   In June 2021 they sold another copy for $17.6 which appears to be the high water mark on gpa.   ComicLink Dec 2021 just closed one at $8.9 which is below GPA last sale of 11k (Oct sale) and  90 day of 10k.   What’s the real FMV over the next 12 months?    Everyone has their own guess.   But a +400% increase in a 18 month span is a good indication that prices might have gotten a bit frothy.   

But as Mr Sweet Lou says and the recaps I have been doing support - it is very much a mixed bag.    There are certain books I probably won’t touch until correction goes deeper.   On other things, I am buying in or upgrading if I feel pricing is “good enough”     Even easier to get comfortable  on upgrading if your cost base on first copy is so far below current market as it lowers your effective/net cost of the upgrade (new grade is 2k while old copy your selling  is 1k for which you paid 200 - making your effective cost 1.2k for the higher grade).  
 

Edited December 12, 2021 by DC#

[GermanFan]

Besides Comics this is the end end of the Baby Boomer megacycle of the west, starting with the end of WW 2 (US Dollar/Oil , until 1971 secured with gold, based Bretton Woods 1944 currency system).

The end was 2008, the beginning of the end 2001, maybe even 1987.

Since then every trick has been played to prolonge the game. But I think we are now close to the end. What else can they do? Print even more money? Start a new war? The tricks get old.

Will it affect vintage comics? I bet.

[MAR1979]

On 12/12/2021 at 10:36 AM, DC# said:

Here is an example of the roller coaster of what has always been a popular book that is a bit harder to come by in high grades (about 1500 in 9.2 or higher CGC).   Hakes sold a 9.2 in Nov 2019 for $3.2k which was just before the start of the 2020 surge in prices.   In June 2021 they sold another copy for $17.6 which appears to be the high water mark on gpa.   ComicLink Dec 2021 just closed one at $8.9 which is below GPA last sale of 11k (Oct sale) and  90 day of 10k.   What’s the real FMV over the next 12 months?    Everyone has their own guess.   But a +400% increase in a 18 month span is a good indication that prices might have gotten a bit frothy.   

But as Mr Sweet Lou says and the recaps I have been doing support - it is very much a mixed bag.    There are certain books I probably won’t touch until correction goes deeper.   On other things, I am buying in or upgrading if I feel pricing is “good enough”     Even easier to get comfortable  on upgrading if your cost base on first copy is so far below current market as it lowers your effective/net cost of the upgrade (new grade is 2k while old copy your selling  is 1k for which you paid 200 - making your effective cost 1.2k for the higher grade).  
 

That one may soften a bit in 9.2 and below but it won't suffer same downward spiral in those grades as Eternals #1 or Secret Wars 8 or ASM 361 for example.  There may even be some "dead-cat" bounces on those huge census pop in high grade books, but a year from now the going rate landscape on those likley will very very different than today and not in a way those who sell those items want.

Edited December 12, 2021 by MAR1979

[Ryan.]

On 12/12/2021 at 11:16 AM, GermanFan said:

Besides Comics this is the end end of the Baby Boomer megacycle of the west, starting with the end of WW 2 (US Dollar/Oil , until 1971 secured with gold, based Bretton Woods 1944 currency system).

The end was 2008, the beginning of the end 2001, maybe even 1987.

Since then every trick has been played to prolonge the game. But I think we are now close to the end. What else can they do? Print even more money? Start a new war? The tricks get old.

Will it affect vintage comics? I bet.

Any day now your incessant prediction of global collapse will come true. Hang in there! 

[lou_fine]

On 12/12/2021 at 8:51 AM, MAR1979 said:

That one may soften a bit in 9.2 and below

Well, if you are speaking about GSXM 1 in your example here, then I would have to say that it has also soften in the uber high grade copies. 

Looks like it peak out for CGC 9.8 graded copies in the spring and summer with sales in the $60K's and one for $72K in June, which was then followed by an easing in sales with a very short pit stop in the $50's before settling down into the $40K's, and now looks headed even further down into the high $30K's.  Still, no real complaints for the long term holders of this book as it was selling in only the teens back a short year ago for a CGC 9.8 copy, and no doubt the huge huge supply of this book in uber HG condition is having a dampening effect on prices up here. 

On the other hand, it looks like X-Men 94 is still firing on all cylinders and continuing to run in overdrive as evident by the bidding on this copy in the current CC Event Auction:  

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/935594

Already at $62,212 with still another 5+ days to go and looks destined to pass the record $63K mark that HA was able to get for this book in CGC 9.8 back earlier in the Spring of this year.  

Only a short matter of time, but any preliminary guesses from the boardies here as to where this copy will finish up at by the time it's all said and done in a few short days from now.      

Edited December 12, 2021 by lou_fine

[comicnoir]

So glad I recently sold my GSX 1 in 8.5 for $7500.00. Good riddance. 

[lou_fine]

On 12/12/2021 at 1:32 PM, comicnoir said:

So glad I recently sold my GSX 1 in 8.5 for $7500.00. Good riddance. 

Why, since it's considered to be a must have for X-Men collectors as it's the first appearance of the New X-Men and a key BA book?  

I still remembered spending a long time passing on copies until I finally found a true minty fresh copy for my own personal collection back in the day.  But sadly, can't seem to find it anywhere now and have absolutely no idea where it would be.    

[PKJ]

On 12/12/2021 at 10:36 AM, DC# said:

 

But as Mr Sweet Lou says and the recaps I have been doing support - it is very much a mixed bag.    There are certain books I probably won’t touch until correction goes deeper.   On other things, I am buying in or upgrading if I feel pricing is “good enough”     Even easier to get comfortable  on upgrading if your cost base on first copy is so far below current market as it lowers your effective/net cost of the upgrade (new grade is 2k while old copy your selling  is 1k for which you paid 200 - making your effective cost 1.2k for the higher grade).  
 

 

This!

I have felt better about upgrading if I am dealing with actual cost. This past year was not a good one to actually execute for myself but that has been how most upgrades have happened. Even better when it is a trade and included in the upgrade.

 

[paperheart]

On 12/12/2021 at 1:32 PM, comicnoir said:

So glad I recently sold my GSX 1 in 8.5 for $7500.00. Good riddance. 

$975 for my 9.2

Edited December 12, 2021 by paperheart

[PKJ]

On 12/12/2021 at 12:34 PM, Ryan. said:

Any day now your incessant prediction of global collapse will come true. Hang in there! 

Right.

 

If I personally felt that way I would sell off the more common high supply books now and buy them back in later at a lower cost. Although when I try that with stocks, the prices shoot up another 100%. I did that with Ford this past year, thought oh nice I can double up, watch it drop and buy back in, it went on a straight upward trend the minute I submitted the sale. I now own -0- shares of Ford. 

[lou_fine]

On 12/12/2021 at 2:59 PM, PKJ said:

I did that with Ford this past year, thought oh nice I can double up, watch it drop and buy back in, it went on a straight upward trend the minute I submitted the sale. I now own -0- shares of Ford. 

I remember doing that with Nvidia back in the day when I brought it for something like $22, only to see it sink back down below the teens for the longest while.  Decided to cash out out my portion when it finally got back up into the $20's some years later.  

Told my better half that she should take some off the table by selling half of hers when it shot up to something like $48 a few months after that.  She grumbled and complained and said why in the world would she want to pay transactions fees twice when she need only pay it once.  Of course, we ended up owing zero shares of Nvidia as a result of her goal and desire to save the $9.99 transaction fee and now as we all know, Nvidia is sitting at something like over $1,200 on a pre-split basis and considered to be one of the top technology stocks to own going forward.    

Edited December 12, 2021 by lou_fine

[comicnoir]

On 12/12/2021 at 4:46 PM, lou_fine said:

Why, since it's considered to be a must have for X-Men collectors as it's the first appearance of the New X-Men and a key BA book?  

I still remembered spending a long time passing on copies until I finally found a true minty fresh copy for my own personal collection back in the day.  But sadly, can't seem to find it anywhere now and have absolutely no idea where it would be.    

If I was an X-men collector that would be different. Bought mine for $250.00 10 years ago strictly as investment. Saw the prices shoot up and got it slabbed. Thought I'd get 9.2, but missed a fingerprint on the back. Unloaded it as prices were dropping. Bought some nice GA with some of the money.

[Poekaymon]

On 12/12/2021 at 4:32 PM, comicnoir said:

So glad I recently sold my GSX 1 in 8.5 for $7500.00. Good riddance. 

I sold a 9.2 about halfway into its meteoric rise around Jan this year for 11.  Didn't feel great about that as I watched it to climb all the way to 20 or so by summer.  It was like TSLA all over again.  Am mostly back to about even now.  But 10, 20, 30 years from now?  I dunno.  I still think it's a solid book.

[lou_fine]

On 12/9/2021 at 4:01 PM, mjoeyoung said:

I was looking at Blue Bolt #105 in the Comic Link auction,  a 4.5 sold for $3819 in  May 2020, so of course this 4.0 goes for $7880!  Prices are up all over the place!  I cannot bring myself to pay 2 or 3 times what I consider to be recent prices until I see some stabilization.  I am not going to be the one without a chair when the music stops.

Well, how apropo and timely for you then, as I was just scrolling through the Wednesday offerings in CC's Event Auction for this coming week and noticed the following:    

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/919666

Looks like this copy here is possibly still within your price range (for now at least), as it is sitting at just an even $4K or about only 9X its condition guide value, as compared to the equivalent graded copy that sold a few days ago for some 17.5X condition guide.    

Edited December 13, 2021 by lou_fine