Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[DC#]

And....here are some Session 1 results for the Dec ComicLink auction.    Lots of stale GPA data, or no GPA data, as many of these books/grades don't seem to change hands that often - so this may be more fun than beneficial for discussing market trends (though still some high volume books mixed in).    And though this is a Featured Auction - it still feels like there are fewer books than in earlier Featured auctions this year.    And the comparison vs the Nov CL results show a bit more stability than earlier this year - at least within the ComicLink universe of sales.   

I also did not recap the Session 1A results from "the collection of Stan Lee's personal tailor."    Most were signature copies and those that weren't seemed to generate a premium just because of the collection.  

 

[lou_fine]

On 12/11/2021 at 6:35 AM, MAR1979 said:

Due to lack of supply, a reasonable guess is any 9.9 and 10.0 of any semi in demand book will always be a market outlier.   BTW while I personally prefer old school slabs based on my experience many do not. Thus the newer slab with the gold 9.9 might have had folks more willing to go after it?

The real indicator of market is to see how much books like that have already dropped in 9.8,9.6,9,4,9.2

The other point to note is that grading standards have changed quite dramatically from the time of the original old school labels as CGC is now targeting certain additional revenue generating defects much more so than before and have move them right up to the top of their hit parade chart with a bullet.  As a result, you can't be sure if that old label slabbed book will come back as a CGC 9.9 copy if graded today without some additional work being done to the book first in order to keep the money hungry CCG ownership happy.    

Yes, totally agree with your last point as the real indicator of market value for a book should be based upon the underlying book itself, as opposed to just the CGC label.  As such, from my own personal POV being more of a long time collector, a book doesn't really have true market value if it can only carry a big price tag when it's the highest graded copy, but pretty much worthless below an arbitrary HG level such as CGC 9.4 for example.  Persoanlly, I feel that a true vintage collectible book should have value across the entire condition spectrum, and as such, the Blue Bolt 105 posted up above would be the perfect example with a non-HG CGC 4.0 graded copy still being able to fetch $7,880 or something like 17.5X its condition guide value.    

Edited December 11, 2021 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

On 12/11/2021 at 6:51 AM, Gregd said:

Just wondering- has there never been a market correction in comics? I thought I heard of some bubbles from the 90s, but hasn’t there been times comics overall went down in price for a time period?

Are you serious or simply trying to be sarcastic here in terms of the Wizard hyped and driven marketplace place back in the early 90's and those so-called super hot Image and Valiant books came crashing down in value on the speculators like a ton of bricks back then.  

Found it especially hilarious when Wizard would sometimes value an upcoming expected hot book at something like $30 or $50 in their so-called monthly price guide, only to have the book delayed due to creators not meeting their deadlines, with the book not even being on the shelves of the LCS by the time their monthly price guide came out.    

 

[WolverineX]

On 12/11/2021 at 9:51 AM, Gregd said:

Just wondering- has there never been a market correction in comics? I thought I heard of some bubbles from the 90s, but hasn’t there been times comics overall went down in price for a time period?

Nothing goes up forever or else everyone would be in comics. 

[Gregd]

I wasnt being sarcastic- I said apart from the 90s has there been significant corrections in the comic market- or has it just plateaued and climbed 🤷🏻 Been seriously collecting for just the past few years so was curious

[WolverineX]

On 12/11/2021 at 2:34 PM, Gregd said:

I wasnt being sarcastic- I said apart from the 90s has there been significant corrections in the comic market- or has it just plateaued and climbed 🤷🏻 Been seriously collecting for just the past few years so was curious

There's been  a dip recently.  many attribute it to the holiday months, but we'll see what happens next month.  Crypto is looking bleak too. 

[PKJ]

On 12/11/2021 at 9:53 AM, Tec-Tac-Toe said:

I may now start purchasing again. Of course, to be melodramatic, just before a purchase, prices will again "reach the stars" and I'll be left empty handed.

I snagged a Hulk 181 to help drive down last sales, knowing my luck two more will sell for 20% lower. If that happens I will have another copy since we call that Averaging down.

I need another copy of Conan 1. For some reason that book is not dipping like I had hoped.

[MAR1979]

On 12/11/2021 at 2:34 PM, Gregd said:

I wasnt being sarcastic- I said apart from the 90s has there been significant corrections in the comic market- or has it just plateaued and climbed 🤷🏻 Been seriously collecting for just the past few years so was curious

Not the first time across the board prices have dropped and won't be the last. On Blue Chips or true keys the effect is usually tempered.  Except for stuff I may not see again in condition i seek, I've avoided buying since the latest bubble started to grow large. Now that it's receding there are items I will be going after. 

Expect the effect of a bubble burst/correction to impact lower grades of books of which High Grades Populations are large the most. Example in the coming year I see ASM361 and Secret Wars 8 in 9.6 and lower "sink like a stone that's been thrown in the ocean". ASM 300 Direct Sale in 9.4 (or 9.2 and lower) will become very very frosty.  Spawn 1 with 8,109 copies in 9.8 or HIGHER copies will be crashing down even in 9.8 .  Many other books fit this bill, be especially wary of 1990-1993 glut era stuff.

My opinion the higher the population in 9.6 and above the more values will drop and drop (outliers and hot book de jour not withstanding). In effect what the market was from CGC inception until the past few years. All depends on how many dump their non loner shiny stuff and exit the hobby  (hobby to us - for them merely potential quick bucks via flips)

Edited December 12, 2021 by MAR1979

[EastEnd1]

On 12/11/2021 at 9:51 AM, Gregd said:

Just wondering- has there never been a market correction in comics? I thought I heard of some bubbles from the 90s, but hasn’t there been times comics overall went down in price for a time period?

Yes, prices of graded comics skyrocketed across the board soon after the introduction of CGC around 2000, reaching jaw-dropping levels for the time (not unlike what we've seen in the last year)... and a few years later began to correct substantially as census figures (and the emerging prevalence of pressing) showed that high grade books weren't as rare as originally thought.  I have run books that I bought in that period that still haven't recovered.  The true keys, however, did not fall back as hard (as one might expect), and have since obviously reached even more jaw-dropping heights.

[WolverineX]

On 12/11/2021 at 3:43 PM, PKJ said:

I snagged a Hulk 181 to help drive down last sales, knowing my luck two more will sell for 20% lower. If that happens I will have another copy since we call that Averaging down.

I need another copy of Conan 1. For some reason that book is not dipping like I had hoped.

Wait till the netflix show is over. 

[troydivision1]

Continued tracking of my Top 50 aka The Personal Collection.
I am utilizing eBay sold items (with auctions taking priority over buy-it-now) to determine FMV.
Nov to Dec yielded the 3rd month this year with a downturn.

Some items did not have a like copy sold throughout the year which skews data.
Chamber of Chills #19 .5
Atom Tan #1
Star Wars #1 9.4 SS Papa GL
Tank Girl #1 9.6 SS Hewlett & Martin

Jan to December            42.19% increase overall
January to February           .39% increase
February to March           6.98% increase
March to April                 11.77% increase
April to May                     7.21% increase
May to June                     2.46% increase
June to July                      .72% increase
July to August                  3.69% decrease
August to September      1.19% increase
September to October   13.07% increase
October to November      3.80% decrease
November to December     .75% decrease

Top 3 % Increases YTD
Maxx #35 9.8 SS       
Spider-Man #129 5.0
Spider-Man #1 .5 SS

Top 3 $ Increases YTD
Spider-Man #1 .5 SS
Spider-Man #129 5.0
Giant Sized X-Men #1 1.8

[alexgross.com]

On 12/11/2021 at 6:51 AM, Gregd said:

Just wondering- has there never been a market correction in comics? I thought I heard of some bubbles from the 90s, but hasn’t there been times comics overall went down in price for a time period?

happens all the time. every year it happens some around the holidays, but the percentage of general price increases in 2021 were unheard of as far as i know, across the board. many books tripled in value from jan 2021 to june 2021, which is atypical, even in a good year.  

such a dramatic upsurge is always followed by a correction. what's happening now is normal, and completely expected. anyone losing their minds about it has not followed comics for very long. 

[PKJ]

On 12/11/2021 at 6:04 PM, Wolverinex said:

Wait till the netflix show is over. 

Shows how much I know or pay attention, had no clue a show was coming. That makes sense for the bump. 

[WolverineX]

On 12/11/2021 at 9:22 PM, PKJ said:

Shows how much I know or pay attention, had no clue a show was coming. That makes sense for the bump. 

Yeah I always wait a year after the show has ended or is off season then I swoop in. 

[onlyweaknesskryptonite]

On 12/11/2021 at 8:23 PM, Wolverinex said:

On 12/11/2021 at 8:22 PM, PKJ said:

Shows how much I know or pay attention, had no clue a show was coming. That makes sense for the bump. 

Yeah I always wait a year after the show has ended or is off season then I swoop in

[Fisionbomb]

Why does this thread still exist?

[onlyweaknesskryptonite]

On 12/11/2021 at 8:41 PM, Fisionbomb said:

Why does this thread still exist?

Closing threads have ease up a bit. 

[BigLeagueCHEW]

On 12/11/2021 at 6:49 PM, onlyweaknesskryptonite said:

Closing threads have ease up a bit. 

Not funna ease 

[onlyweaknesskryptonite]

On 12/11/2021 at 11:01 PM, BigLeagueCHEW said:

Not funna ease 

I remember a long gone childhood nursery rhyme about dirty knees that this made me think of.. 

[lou_fine]

On 12/11/2021 at 2:24 PM, MAR1979 said:

Expect the effect of a bubble burst/correction to impact lower grades of books of which High Grades Populations are large the most. Example in the coming year I see ASM361 and Secret Wars 8 in 9.6 and lower "sink like a stone that's been thrown in the ocean". ASM 300 Direct Sale in 9.4 (or 9.2 and lower) will become very very frosty.  Spawn 1 with 8,109 copies in 9.8 or HIGHER copies will be crashing down even in 9.8 .  Many other books fit this bill, be especially wary of 1990-1993 glut era stuff.

My opinion the higher the population in 9.6 and above the more values will drop and drop (outliers and hot book de jour not withstanding). In effect what the market was from CGC inception until the past few years. All depends on how many dump their non loner shiny stuff and exit the hobby  (hobby to us - for them merely potential quick bucks via flips)

Yep, sad to say..............but I also expect this is pretty much how things are going to work out longer term for these "common as dirt" books.  

Another perfect example would be Ultimate Fallout 4, as I certainly don't expect buyers to continue paying out over $30K longer term for this so-called variant edition when there are already hundreds of copies out there in equivalent top of gradecondition.  Especially when there are possibly hundreds more to be slabbed at this same top of grade level once CGC digs their way out of that dump of books they've already got piled high to the ceiling in their now expanded 100,000+ square foot storage holding facility.    

I guess it's really a case of to each, their own.  Being a longer term collector though, I am definitely less interested in books that are about trying to time the market, as opposed to being much more interested in books that's more about spending time in the market.