Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[MAR1979]

On 12/10/2021 at 2:25 PM, DC# said:

I have sort of been in this camp of thinking as well - though I do continue to think CL is showing more softness than Heritage or Ebay.   I will say this Dec CL auction seems to have a much more "refined" selection of books for sale - lots and lots of books that are in the top 5-10% of blue label books.   My cursory view is that there is more stability when comparing results to the Nov CL results - but there are also fewer comparable books since this auction is really the high-end goods.     Will see what the GPA comps say when I get them populated. 

I noticed in 2019, 2020, and until Summer 2021 CL was getting larger hammer prices for high population hot books than on eBay.  Now it seem they are getting less. Makes me think some have left CL due to perceived higher prices?

Edited December 10, 2021 by MAR1979

[1Cool]

On 12/10/2021 at 1:43 PM, DC# said:

Realized I forgot to post the final session results from the Nov CL Auction.....too much Turkey.    Will be posting Session 1 of December CL this weekend.  

 

Ouch pretty much across the board.  Quite a few 30 - 40% trimmings of prices on some nice "key" books.

[alexgross.com]

On 12/10/2021 at 12:41 PM, 1Cool said:

Ouch pretty much across the board.  Quite a few 30 - 40% trimmings of prices on some nice "key" books.

this is becoming a buying opportunity in a big way.  but not for several major SA keys, which continue to be stratospheric, like ff1, hulk1, af15...

[Northwest]

On 12/10/2021 at 11:25 AM, DC# said:

I have sort of been in this camp of thinking as well - though I do continue to think CL is showing more softness than Heritage or Ebay.   I will say this Dec CL auction seems to have a much more "refined" selection of books for sale - lots and lots of books that are in the top 5-10% of blue label books.   My cursory view is that there is more stability when comparing results to the Nov CL results - but there are also fewer comparable books since this auction is really the high-end goods.     Will see what the GPA comps say when I get them populated. 

The Dec CL auction is a quarterly "Featured" auction which is limited to top books, whereas the other monthly auctions are "focused" auctions with broader offerings. 

[kav]

On 12/9/2021 at 9:05 PM, lou_fine said:

Well, you do realize that this book here is often acknowledged by many long time collectors as one of L.B. Cole's finest si-fi covers and extremely tough to find in grade:  

Not sure about the defects without having the actual book in hand, but this copy here sure presents very nicely relative to its assigned grade of only a CGC 4.0 copy and clearly has not been graded according to the much softer Promise Collection grading standards.  

In addition, it should also be pointed out that the entire collectibles marketplace, including vintage comic books, was just so much different back in May 2020 near the beginning of Covid, as compared to the entire collectible marketplace (along with some others) just took off like a rocket during the latter part of 2020 and throughout much of 2021.  

I want this book.  If anyone has one could you give to me thx.  My gratitude climb a bit.

[Comics4All]

On 12/10/2021 at 4:27 PM, kav said:

I want this book.  If anyone has one could you give to me thx.  My gratitude climb a bit.

Maybe Bo give you this he ease up then go back down than ease up again amirite

[zosocane]

On 12/10/2021 at 4:05 PM, alexgross.com said:

this is becoming a buying opportunity in a big way.  but not for several major SA keys, which continue to be stratospheric, like ff1, hulk1, af15...

I would agree.  

I would add that last year at this time 12 months ago, the market (and I'm talking the Marvel market -- I don't think anyone is talking about anything else) had flattened.  And then Wanda-Vision came out in mid-January 2021, and the crazy ride that was 2021 exploded out of the gate with big price gains starting in late January and running through about September of this year, and then leveling off (or in many cases partially correcting) in Q4.  I'm not saying January 2022 we'll see the same thing, but what I am saying is that the Marvel market is very tuned in to the excitement/hype created by Marvel Studios and Disney+ content.  Out of 3 Marvel Studios films in 2021 (Black Widow, Shang-Chi and Eternals) we've gotten only a little teaser (Blade, Starfox, Black Knight) of what Phase 5 and 6 will bring to the market.  Loki told us a lot more of what Emperor Feige has in mind with the importance of Kang the Conqueror and the TVA.  When Moon Knight and Secret Invasion airs later in 2022, and when the casting for Fantastic Four is announced (I believe later in 2022), that is going to generate a ton of excitement for the market, and Marvel books will be on another upward campaign.

[kav]

On 12/10/2021 at 1:58 PM, Comics4All said:

Maybe Bo give you this he ease up then go back down than ease up again amirite

Hopefully you am rite. 

[lou_fine]

On 12/10/2021 at 11:01 AM, MAR1979 said:

Folks this is not just 'seasonal" these are the type of high % drop-offs that show a correction is in progress.

The more bandwagon jumpers see value of their holdings dwindle, the more they will sell and exit the hobby until the next boom. Good riddance IMHO

Yes, nothing but a sea of red from what we are seeing here in this chart.  

Then again, not really that surprising at all and totally expected since the majority of the books listed here are relatively recent common books to the point that they not only show up in every single auction, but also with multiple copies in each auction.  As such, like speculative growth stocks, these are really more like speculative books which tends to over accentuate both the positive when they are rising and also the negative when they are falling, as speculators chase these books by buying when they are rising and selling when they are falling.  

 

On 12/10/2021 at 11:25 AM, DC# said:

I have sort of been in this camp of thinking as well - though I do continue to think CL is showing more softness than Heritage or Ebay.   I will say this Dec CL auction seems to have a much more "refined" selection of books for sale - lots and lots of books that are in the top 5-10% of blue label books.   My cursory view is that there is more stability when comparing results to the Nov CL results - but there are also fewer comparable books since this auction is really the high-end goods.     

Absolutely no surprise here as I have always found the CL auctions to be much more the home of the speculative CGC label chasers or fippers, and these kinds of books tend to swing the most when they are either rising or falling. 

As for the December CL offerings to be of higher quality than their November offerings, again no surprise here as the December auction is a Feature Auction featuring their more expensive higher end books, while the November auction was just another one of their regular Focused Auction focusing on so-called lower quality books.  Of course, you will get the same highly speculative books like Spidey 300, Eternals 1, Special Marvel Edition 15, etc. and the likes because they are just so common they have to place them into every single one of their auctions.  As a result, you will clearly get more of what you call "refined" eyeballs looking at CL's Featured Auctions as opposed to their Focused Auctions, similar to how bidders with much deeper pockets tend to watch the HA Signature Auctions, but not so much their weekly Sunday auctions.  Same with CC in terms of their quarterly Event Auctions as opposed to their Monthly Auctions which most sophisicated bidders tend to ignore.  

[lou_fine]

On 12/10/2021 at 12:41 PM, 1Cool said:

Ouch pretty much across the board.  Quite a few 30 - 40% trimmings of prices on some nice "key" books.

Yeah, looks a little bit similar to Cathie Wood's very highly popular Ark Innovation ETF fund.  

Something like an almost 40% return in 2019 and then a rocket like massive 150%+ return last year, but definitely no such luck this year.  

In fact, I believe that almost every single one of the stocks in their portfolio, all high spec growth stocks, are all in bear market territory at more than 20% off from their recent highs even while the major indicies are either all at or near record highs.  

Edited December 10, 2021 by lou_fine

[BigLeagueCHEW]

On 12/10/2021 at 1:27 PM, kav said:

I want this book.  If anyone has one could you give to me thx.  My gratitude climb a bit.

Did you ease on your wallet for this 

[kav]

On 12/10/2021 at 4:53 PM, BigLeagueCHEW said:

Did you ease on your wallet for this 

spent it all on wheatcakes.

[mjoeyoung]

On 12/9/2021 at 10:05 PM, lou_fine said:

In addition, it should also be pointed out that the entire collectibles marketplace, including vintage comic books, was just so much different back in May 2020 near the beginning of Covid, as compared to the entire collectible marketplace (along with some others) just took off like a rocket during the latter part of 2020 and throughout much of 2021.  

I agree with you, the market is VERY different, the 4.5 that sold at Comic Connect looks pretty darn good too!  I just don't trust market prices when they go up this high, this fast.

[lou_fine]

On 12/9/2021 at 9:05 PM, lou_fine said:

Well, you do realize that this book here is often acknowledged by many long time collectors as one of L.B. Cole's finest si-fi covers and extremely tough to find in grade:  

 

On 12/10/2021 at 1:27 PM, kav said:

I want this book.  If anyone has one could you give to me thx.  My gratitude climb a bit.

Well, not only you, but probably also every other long time GA collector, and in particular the L.B. Cole collector, would just love to be able to acquire any copy of this classic cover book here.     

Unfortunately, unlike most of the other so-called more recent keys listed in the chart here with hundreds, if not thousands of certified HG copies already graded and slabbed out there, it looks like this book here is most likely highly coveted by collectors with copies probably locked away in long held private collections and not destined to see the light of day anytime soon.  

Especially when the CGC Census Population Report indicates a total of only 35 graded Universal copies, with only 3 of these being in higher than CGC 8.0 VF graded condition.  A real hen's tooth in terms of being able to find this book in grade and my bet is the buyer of the CL CGC 9.8 graded copy back in 2018 for $37,500 which some boardies here thought he had over paid for must be absolutely ecstatic now.  Especially considering how much paper profit must have accrued to his copy with the out of this world prices now being realized for highest graded copies of GA classic cover books with Covid in place and also after some of the rather insane crypto like prices being paid in today's marketplace.  

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 12/10/2021 at 11:24 PM, lou_fine said:

 

Well, not only you, but probably also every other long time GA collector, and in particular the L.B. Cole collector, would just love to be able to acquire any copy of this classic cover book here.     

Unfortunately, unlike most of the other so-called more recent keys listed in the chart here with hundreds, if not thousands of certified HG copies already graded and slabbed out there, it looks like this book here is most likely highly coveted by collectors with copies probably locked away in long held private collections and not destined to see the light of day anytime soon.  

Especially when the CGC Census Population Report indicates a total of only 35 graded Universal copies, with only 3 of these being in higher than CGC 8.0 VF graded condition.  A real hen's tooth in terms of being able to find this book in grade and my bet is the buyer of the CL CGC 9.8 graded copy back in 2018 for $37,500 which some boardies here thought he had over paid for must be absolutely ecstatic now.  Especially considering how much paper profit must have accrued to his copy with the out of this world prices now being realized for highest graded copies of GA classic cover books with Covid in place and also after some of the rather insane crypto like prices being paid in today's marketplace.  

What’s your estimate if the book went to auction tomorrow?

[Microchip]

7 months and a 10% climb.

 

[troydivision1]

On 12/10/2021 at 6:52 PM, lou_fine said:

Yeah, looks a little bit similar to Cathie Wood's very highly popular Ark Innovation ETF fund.  

Something like an almost 40% return in 2019 and then a rocket like massive 150%+ return last year, but definitely no such luck this year.  

In fact, I believe that almost every single one of the stocks in their portfolio, all high spec growth stocks, are all in bear market territory at more than 20% off from their recent highs even while the major indicies are either all at or near record highs.  

Great comparison.
I will add that it may have also been affected by Musk selling billions at the peak.
That affected numerous funds that were long TSLA to drop then sell in order to remain liquid and within margin requirements.
"Reported" inflation at a high not since the 80s...but of course SPY is at ATH...

Edited December 11, 2021 by Troy Division

[MAR1979]

On 12/11/2021 at 3:07 AM, Microchip said:

7 months and a 10% climb.

 

Due to lack of supply, a reasonable guess is any 9.9 and 10.0 of any semi in demand book will always be a market outlier.   BTW while I personally prefer old school slabs based on my experience many do not. Thus the newer slab with the gold 9.9 might have had folks more willing to go after it?

The real indicator of market is to see how much books like that have already dropped in 9.8,9.6,9,4,9.2

Edited December 11, 2021 by MAR1979

[Gregd]

Just wondering- has there never been a market correction in comics? I thought I heard of some bubbles from the 90s, but hasn’t there been times comics overall went down in price for a time period?

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

I may now start purchasing again. Of course, to be melodramatic, just before a purchase, prices will again "reach the stars" and I'll be left empty handed.