Heritage September 2022 comic and art auction 3 3

[batman_fan]

On 9/13/2022 at 9:18 PM, tth2 said:

Geez, you guys are giving Lou_Fine some really bad ideas for every CC auction from now on. 

me waiting for the ComicConnect auction to end

[Ecclectica]

On 9/13/2022 at 10:22 PM, comix4fun said:

I don't want to panic too early....but NONE of the lots for the November Signature Auction have any bids!!!  

Singing...

"This could be heaven art,
This could be heaven art
This could be heaven art for everyone"

[Dr. Balls]

On 9/12/2022 at 9:38 AM, jjonahjameson11 said:

We've discussed this during previous HA auction threads, and earlier in this very thread, but the sheer number of lots that went for multiples of 4x, 5x, 6x and beyond once live bidding started, has never been so prevalent.  This statement is particularly true for the Sunday auction...stuff that sat around $1.5K - $4K took off like crazy!

Bidding behaviour has changed so much in such a short time that its almost impossible to predict what a piece will go for these days. 

I actually gave up watching the live bidding for that reason. Poorly composed, unevenly balanced pages with minor characters going for 3x the value just wasn’t worth watching (what I was watching, not in general). That Jim Lee sketch cover going for what it did was bizarre - scarce incentive cover notwithstanding.

Comic art is the new Wall Street, I guess. Some return in 5-10 years will be better than no return at all. I’m not criticizing- that just seems to be what went on with comics for the past couple of years, now migrating to art perhaps? I imagine that’s a big part of what we are seeing with prices across the board. Not just the big dollar items, even the kiddie pool pages in the $600-$1500 range are seeing exponential jumps - and that’s where it’s very obvious, since title, action, character, composition plays a more important role than specific artist in that lower price point.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Dr. Balls

[KirbyCollector]

On 9/14/2022 at 8:08 AM, Dr. Balls said:

Comic art is the new Wall Street, I guess. I imagine that’s a big part of what we are seeing with prices across the board.

Wall Street has had issues this year, even before yesterday's debacle; even dividend players have taken a serious hit. And crypto... let's not talk about Bitcoin's $40K haircut since last November. In contrast, OA has been able to deliver reliable, steady (some might say boring) gains for some time now, especially if your main focus is silver/bronze age art; I view my art almost like a CD at this point. I can also speak with authority that the same thing has taken place in the mid-century ceramics space (I own over 400 pieces and run a web site): increasing interest and slow, steady gains as people seek both collecting enjoyment and the security of a decent return on their money.

Edited September 14, 2022 by KirbyCollector

[Dr. Balls]

On 9/14/2022 at 6:23 AM, KirbyCollector said:

Wall Street has had issues this year, even before yesterday's debacle; even dividend players have taken a serious hit. And crypto... let's not talk about Bitcoin's $40K haircut since last November. In contrast, OA has been able to deliver reliable, steady (some might say boring) gains for some time now, especially if your main focus is silver/bronze age art; I view my art almost like a CD at this point. I can also speak with authority that the same thing has taken place in the mid-century ceramics space (I own over 400 pieces and run a web site): increasing interest and slow, steady gains as people seek both collecting enjoyment and the security of a decent return on their money.

Very true. We pulled out of Wall Street in a big way about 6 months ago and reinvested elsewhere, comics being one area. And we look at it like you do, it's a CD-type investment where we hang onto it for awhile, and will think about letting it go at some point in the future. Granted, we weren't on the lucrative end of buying - but I think it will pan out better down the line in terms of returns. It sure seems like OA is going that route - and Heritage has baked-in insanity on their prices with the live auction portion of their offerings. It will be interesting to watch this progress.

[Rick2you2]

On 9/14/2022 at 10:17 AM, Dr. Balls said:

Very true. We pulled out of Wall Street in a big way about 6 months ago and reinvested elsewhere, comics being one area. And we look at it like you do, it's a CD-type investment where we hang onto it for awhile, and will think about letting it go at some point in the future. Granted, we weren't on the lucrative end of buying - but I think it will pan out better down the line in terms of returns. It sure seems like OA is going that route - and Heritage has baked-in insanity on their prices with the live auction portion of their offerings. It will be interesting to watch this progress.

This is the kind of approach to OA which can lead to overshoot and collapse of the market. As Gene noted when writing about a conversation with another old-time collector about pricing, “this will end badly, won’t it?” Or, words to that effect.

CD’s have established markets for sale. The OA market has a relatively narrow throat.

[KirbyCollector]

On 9/14/2022 at 12:46 PM, Rick2you2 said:

CD’s have established markets for sale.

Which have been paying less than the rate of inflation even before our current bout of excess

I live within the reality of now, which is prices are moving higher for OA and we have an incredibly liquid market for quality art. It won't stay like this forever, but then again nothing does. All markets show their hand before a big decline... ours is no different. The trick is paying attention and acting accordingly.

Edited September 14, 2022 by KirbyCollector

[Rick2you2]

On 9/14/2022 at 1:37 PM, KirbyCollector said:

Which have been paying less than the rate of inflation even before our current bout of excess

I live within the reality of now, which is prices are moving higher for OA and we have an incredibly liquid market for quality art. It won't stay like this forever, but then again nothing does. All markets show their hand before a big decline... ours is no different. The trick is paying attention and acting accordingly.

The issue, as I see it reflected in the comments here is too little quality for the price. High quality? Sure. Mediocre quality? Danger, Will Robinson, danger!

[batman_fan]

On 9/14/2022 at 6:18 PM, Bill C said:

Their auction ends in 5 days- did they just end another one?

I don't really follow them, but am watching the DeFalco Darkhawk series proposal that ends next week.

They are well known for having long times from the start of their auctions until they end.

[malvin]

On 9/14/2022 at 5:19 PM, batman_fan said:

They are well known for having long times from the start of their auctions until they end.

They are? Never noticed.  Comiclink has them for like 30 days, are they longer?

Malvin

[batman_fan]

On 9/14/2022 at 9:25 PM, malvin said:

They are? Never noticed.  Comiclink has them for like 30 days, are they longer?

Malvin

Yeah but CLINK starts closing like 2 weeks after they start and drag it out over 2 weeks. 

[tth2]

On 9/15/2022 at 12:46 AM, Rick2you2 said:

As Gene noted when writing about a conversation with another old-time collector about pricing, “this will end badly, won’t it?” Or, words to that effect.

Some of us have been waiting (and waiting and waiting) for this prediction to (finally) come true.

[Rick2you2]

On 9/15/2022 at 12:00 AM, tth2 said:

Some of us have been waiting (and waiting and waiting) for this prediction to (finally) come true.

The question is one of quality. I don’t think the top pieces will drop, maybe ever. But, if you look at all the complaining about pricing on lower quality pieces, and people who have stopped buying, maybe this is where the rollback eventually begins. I’ve noticed more dealer swaps of lesser pieces, which is a form of price support as well as gaining a piece worth selling, as each new owner raises the price. Or, maybe I’ve just noticed them more. How often do those attempted flips of mediocre go nowhere? I don’t know, but that would be another clue. 

[jjonahjameson11]

On 9/15/2022 at 6:31 AM, Rick2you2 said:

The question is one of quality. I don’t think the top pieces will drop, maybe ever. But, if you look at all the complaining about pricing on lower quality pieces, and people who have stopped buying, maybe this is where the rollback eventually begins. I’ve noticed more dealer swaps of lesser pieces, which is a form of price support as well as gaining a piece worth selling, as each new owner raises the price. Or, maybe I’ve just noticed them more. How often do those attempted flips of mediocre go nowhere? I don’t know, but that would be another clue. 

People who complained about prices on the lower quality pieces who have stopped collecting seem to have been replaced by folks who aren’t complaining because they’re too busy scooping up these lower tier pages like drunken sailors!

how else does one explain the feeding frenzy at the shallow end of the pond?

Edited September 15, 2022 by jjonahjameson11

[Rick2you2]

On 9/15/2022 at 7:13 AM, jjonahjameson11 said:

People who complained about prices on the lower quality pieces who have stopped collecting seem to have been replaced by folks who aren’t complaining because they’re too busy scooping up these lower tier pages like drunken sailors!

how else does one explain the feeding frenzy at the shallow end of the pond?

I don't think critical mass is there yet, but the comments suggest it is headed there. To answer your question, feeding frenzies can be pushed, or maybe created, by dealers bidding up items to protect the prices of their stock; auction houses that bid on their own account; shills, and gullible people who don't know what is going on or who turn a blind eye to it. 

[Bronty]

On 9/15/2022 at 7:50 AM, Rick2you2 said:

I don't think critical mass is there yet, but the comments suggest it is headed there. To answer your question, feeding frenzies can be pushed, or maybe created, by dealers bidding up items to protect the prices of their stock; auction houses that bid on their own account; shills, and gullible people who don't know what is going on or who turn a blind eye to it. 

I know you're a big proponent of that theory, but in my experience absolutely nothing moves people like self-interest.    Frenzies get craziest when the buyer pool has greed or FOMO or both, from what I've seen.     I'm not going to argue that manipulation can't move markets, but the craziest conditions are more or less organic and need nothing but some widespread greed.

Edited September 15, 2022 by Bronty

[tth2]

On 9/15/2022 at 6:31 PM, Rick2you2 said:

On 9/15/2022 at 12:00 PM, tth2 said:

Some of us have been waiting (and waiting and waiting) for this prediction to (finally) come true.

The question is one of quality. I don’t think the top pieces will drop, maybe ever.

A crash that doesn't affect the top pieces is of absolutely no relevance.  A 90% drop in prices of Al Milgrom covers from their peak will have as much impact on me as the crash in tulip bulb prices.

[delekkerste]

On 9/14/2022 at 8:23 AM, KirbyCollector said:

In contrast, OA has been able to deliver reliable, steady (some might say boring) gains for some time now, especially if your main focus is silver/bronze age art; I view my art almost like a CD at this point. 

[jjonahjameson11]

On 9/15/2022 at 7:50 AM, Rick2you2 said:

I don't think critical mass is there yet, but the comments suggest it is headed there. To answer your question, feeding frenzies can be pushed, or maybe created, by dealers bidding up items to protect the prices of their stock; auction houses that bid on their own account; shills, and gullible people who don't know what is going on or who turn a blind eye to it. 

I know that we don’t often agree, and it’s fine to have differing opinions.  Sometimes, I’m swayed by a cohesive, well-thought out counterpoint and I change my mind.

what I would like to know is who are the commenters suggesting we are headed towards critical mass?  Are these anonymous keyboard jockeys all named Chicken Little?  What evidence did they (or anyone) see in the last HA auction results to indicate anything whatsoever of a slowdown in the OA market?

and lastly, but most importantly, why listen to them?

[KirbyCollector]

On 9/15/2022 at 10:23 AM, jjonahjameson11 said:

what I would like to know is who are the commenters suggesting we are headed towards critical mass?  Are these anonymous keyboard jockeys all named Chicken Little?  What evidence did they (or anyone) see in the last HA auction results to indicate anything whatsoever of a slowdown in the OA market?

and lastly, but most importantly, why listen to them?

One of the saddest things about the internet is it has normalized and multipled those people we used to call crazy, i.e. the wild-eyed bearded guy on the corner with the "End Is Near" sign. We are, unfortunately, not exempt from this phenomenon.