Heritage September 2022 comic and art auction 3 3

[Rick2you2]

On 9/15/2022 at 10:23 AM, jjonahjameson11 said:

I know that we don’t often agree, and it’s fine to have differing opinions.  Sometimes, I’m swayed by a cohesive, well-thought out counterpoint and I change my mind.

what I would like to know is who are the commenters suggesting we are headed towards critical mass?  Are these anonymous keyboard jockeys all named Chicken Little?  What evidence did they (or anyone) see in the last HA auction results to indicate anything whatsoever of a slowdown in the OA market?

and lastly, but most importantly, why listen to them?

Let me clarify what I wrote. Apparently, I wasn’t clear. I am the one saying we may be headed towards a critical mass. I don’t need to rely on anyone to say they “may” be headed that way. My damned crystal ball broke last week and the mechanic closed his shop. Could I be wrong? Sure. The basis for my comment are all the complaints about the very high prices on auction pieces that weren’t that good, including at least one long timer who can’t justify paying prices he is seeing for panel pages, and Gene’s earlier comment about pricing. Look at all of them.

I do not see a top to bottom market collapse. There is too much money in this hobby. What the aforementioned comments suggest to me is a “hollowing out effect”, in which lesser “classic” pieces sit unsold or quietly drop while people move on to things they perceive have better value. Perhaps modern, perhaps War, darned if I know. 

Most collectors, I think it is fair to say, don’t spend hundreds of thousands of dollars every year on trophy pieces. These boards may have a disproportionate number of people who do. I don’t know that either, but I do know quite a few boardies spend more than I will on these works. So for the more typical collector, the top end prices are fun to look at, but do not reflect the reality of what they, or I buy. So for me, and most people, that hollowing out effect is more relevant than whether a Frazetta piece goes for 1M or 2M.

As to the “feeding frenzy” at the shallow end of the pond, it takes time to turn a herd of stampeding cattle. Do I know prices will stabilize high or drop? No, I thought I was clear. That damn crystal ball just won’t work anymore. Maybe I should try tarot cards.

I strongly do not think a classic Tulipmania price crash is in the offing. But market changes are certainly suggested by the comments.

Better?

Edited September 15, 2022 by Rick2you2

[batman_fan]

Personally I think the OA market will follow a trend similar to the comic market.  Continue its upward trend with periods of flat growth.  The great comic crash has been predicted for about 4 decades and counting and the OA crash about 3 decades.  Will this trend every change?  Maybe but no clear signs it is and no even somewhat fuzzy signs it is.

[jjonahjameson11]

On 9/15/2022 at 1:08 PM, Rick2you2 said:

Let me clarify what I wrote. Apparently, I wasn’t clear. I am the one saying we may be headed towards a critical mass. I don’t need to rely on anyone to say they “may” be headed that way. My damned crystal ball broke last week and the mechanic closed his shop. Could I be wrong? Sure. The basis for my comment are all the complaints about the very high prices on auction pieces that weren’t that good, including at least one long timer who can’t justify paying prices he is seeing for panel pages, and Gene’s earlier comment about pricing. Look at all of them.

I do not see a top to bottom market collapse. There is too much money in this hobby. What the aforementioned comments suggest to me is a “hollowing out effect”, in which lesser “classic” pieces sit unsold or quietly drop while people move on to things they perceive have better value. Perhaps modern, perhaps War, darned if I know. 

Most collectors, I think it is fair to say, don’t spend hundreds of thousands of dollars every year on trophy pieces. These boards may have a disproportionate number of people who do. I don’t know that either, but I do know quite a few boardies spend more than I will on these works. So for the more typical collector, the top end prices are fun to look at, but do not reflect the reality of what they, or I buy. So for me, and most people, that hollowing out effect is more relevant than whether a Frazetta piece goes for 1M or 2M.

As to the “feeding frenzy” at the shallow end of the pond, it takes time to turn a herd of stampeding cattle. Do I know prices will stabilize high or drop? No, I thought I was clear. That damn crystal ball just won’t work anymore. Maybe I should try tarot cards.

I strongly do not think a classic Tulipmania price crash is in the offing. But market changes are certainly suggested by the comments.

Better?

Clearer, yes indeed.

[Rick2you2]

On 9/15/2022 at 4:50 PM, batman_fan said:

Personally I think the OA market will follow a trend similar to the comic market.  Continue its upward trend with periods of flat growth.  The great comic crash has been predicted for about 4 decades and counting and the OA crash about 3 decades.  Will this trend every change?  Maybe but no clear signs it is and no even somewhat fuzzy signs it is.

I’ve made this comment before, but a cricket chirping in the desert would get a better response. You wrote about “the OA market”, but isn’t it time to consider the submarkets, and differentiate where they may head? We talk about how hot the Bronze Age stuff has often become, while a fair amount of low interest Silver Age stuff gathers dust. High end Silver Age work keeps rising, but I hear some Golden Age OA has dropped (I don’t know, I don’t observe). And does this have any relevance to commission prices, or are they affected by something else? I think we are past the point where we can just say there will be periods of “flat growth” or general increases, given what we know, it deserves greater scrutiny. The boardies here have such a vast base of knowledge and technical skill, maybe differentiation would be helpful to everyone at large. Anyway, so much for my soapbox. Back to your regularly scheduled programming. 🙂

 

 

[batman_fan]

On 9/15/2022 at 4:52 PM, Rick2you2 said:

I’ve made this comment before, but a cricket chirping in the desert would get a better response. You wrote about “the OA market”, but isn’t it time to consider the submarkets, and differentiate where they may head? We talk about how hot the Bronze Age stuff has often become, while a fair amount of low interest Silver Age stuff gathers dust. High end Silver Age work keeps rising, but I hear some Golden Age OA has dropped (I don’t know, I don’t observe). And does this have any relevance to commission prices, or are they affected by something else? I think we are past the point where we can just say there will be periods of “flat growth” or general increases, given what we know, it deserves greater scrutiny. The boardies here have such a vast base of knowledge and technical skill, maybe differentiation would be helpful to everyone at large. Anyway, so much for my soapbox. Back to your regularly scheduled programming. 🙂

 

 

I believe my statement is true across all areas.

[Grant Turner]

On 9/15/2022 at 3:52 PM, Rick2you2 said:

We talk about how hot the Bronze Age stuff has often become, while a fair amount of low interest Silver Age stuff gathers dust.

Not being facetious…

is there talk about silver age stuff gathering dust?  Certainly not Marvel hero stuff, at least not that I see

[Rick2you2]

On 9/15/2022 at 8:27 PM, Grant Turner said:

Not being facetious…

is there talk about silver age stuff gathering dust?  Certainly not Marvel hero stuff, at least not that I see

Probably not. But on a related note, are prices increasing in tandem with price increases with say, DC Superboy art? My guess is the Marvel art is doing better. Then, why are they grouped in the general category of OA without submarket differentiation? 

[RBerman]

On 9/15/2022 at 7:27 PM, Grant Turner said:

Not being facetious…

is there talk about silver age stuff gathering dust?  Certainly not Marvel hero stuff, at least not that I see

What's the total census of Marvel 60s pages anyway? As I recall, DC was distributing Marvel at the time and only allowed them a small number of titles each month. Whereas DC had more titles but apparently shredded a lot of the OA.

Judging by the pages I've been able to afford, it seems that DC work is about twice as available as Marvel work today.

[tth2]

SA DC pages are definitely much cheaper than comparable SA Marvel pages, but similar to the comics, most collectors have no emotional attachment to the SA DCs so the gap with their Marvel counterparts will never close.

That dynamic completely changes for a few prestige DC titles from the 1980s, with Dark Knight, Killing Joke and Watchmen being on a planet of their own.  Ronin has been skyrocketing and Sandman pages are going for crazy money now too. 

[adamstrange]

On 9/15/2022 at 4:50 PM, batman_fan said:

flat growth

[buttock]

On 9/15/2022 at 9:07 PM, adamstrange said:

As we age we take whatever growth we can get.  

[Rick2you2]

On 9/15/2022 at 10:36 PM, tth2 said:

SA DC pages are definitely much cheaper than comparable SA Marvel pages, but similar to the comics, most collectors have no emotional attachment to the SA DCs so the gap with their Marvel counterparts will never close.

That dynamic completely changes for a few prestige DC titles from the 1980s, with Dark Knight, Killing Joke and Watchmen being on a planet of their own.  Ronin has been skyrocketing and Sandman pages are going for crazy money now too. 

I was one of those DC fans; I really liked the Justice League. On balance, the stories were simpler and more compact, while I found a lot of Marvel’s artwork messy with open story lines. Never liked FF. On the other hand, I really did like Spider-Man. I barely remember them, but I also liked the original Fly, by Simon, and Jaguar. Childish in retrospect, but hell, I was a child.

[batman_fan]

On 9/16/2022 at 9:01 AM, Humpty-Dumpty said:

These economic times are markedly different than anything experienced in the last three or four decades. 

Not exactly sure what you mean?  We have had numerous times of economic struggles.  Which one is the worst?  I guess that depends on which one impacted you the most.

[drdonaldblake1]

On 9/16/2022 at 3:08 AM, Rick2you2 said:

Let me clarify what I wrote. Apparently, I wasn’t clear. I am the one saying we may be headed towards a critical mass. I don’t need to rely on anyone to say they “may” be headed that way. My damned crystal ball broke last week and the mechanic closed his shop. Could I be wrong? Sure. The basis for my comment are all the complaints about the very high prices on auction pieces that weren’t that good, including at least one long timer who can’t justify paying prices he is seeing for panel pages, and Gene’s earlier comment about pricing. Look at all of them.

I do not see a top to bottom market collapse. There is too much money in this hobby. What the aforementioned comments suggest to me is a “hollowing out effect”, in which lesser “classic” pieces sit unsold or quietly drop while people move on to things they perceive have better value. Perhaps modern, perhaps War, darned if I know. 

Most collectors, I think it is fair to say, don’t spend hundreds of thousands of dollars every year on trophy pieces. These boards may have a disproportionate number of people who do. I don’t know that either, but I do know quite a few boardies spend more than I will on these works. So for the more typical collector, the top end prices are fun to look at, but do not reflect the reality of what they, or I buy. So for me, and most people, that hollowing out effect is more relevant than whether a Frazetta piece goes for 1M or 2M.

As to the “feeding frenzy” at the shallow end of the pond, it takes time to turn a herd of stampeding cattle. Do I know prices will stabilize high or drop? No, I thought I was clear. That damn crystal ball just won’t work anymore. Maybe I should try tarot cards.

I strongly do not think a classic Tulipmania price crash is in the offing. But market changes are certainly suggested by the comments.

Better?

Re the shallow end feeding frenzy for lower quality material, those Miller DD PAGes with virtually no DD images going for $20-30k 🤯

Then this week someone on CAF out up a DD page # 160 I think, with one or two DD images asking $100k....insanity

[Humpty-Dumpty]

On 9/16/2022 at 10:50 AM, batman_fan said:

Not exactly sure what you mean?  We have had numerous times of economic struggles.  Which one is the worst?  I guess that depends on which one impacted you the most.

It is not about what impacted me the most.

[Humpty-Dumpty]

On 9/16/2022 at 2:34 PM, Rick2you2 said:

I would agree, but probably for different reasons. Technically, we had a recession the first 2 quarters because we had negative GDP growth, but prices have been showing an increase, which usually doesn’t come into play until part way through a boom cycle. Job availability remains high, but there is an unusually large mismatch between skillsets and jobs, raising questions about the quality of government job reporting data. Stores are now facing excess inventory, a hallmark of recession, but it was, in part, created by overly exuberant purchases by companies who misread the likely demand side of the equation after COVID and thought things like “of course people will keep buying overpriced Peloton bikes”. Not to be outdone, the Fed is raising interest rates, a lot, to squeeze out inflation, rather than let ordinary consumer behavior fix things (eg, trading down on brand name products). Personally, I think we are, or should be in a modest trough which should last to Spring before this spoon straightens itself out.

These are salient points However, in this time period of the fiat-based system they are micro information having little bearing on the big picture and none of them address the core of the issue, which is we are at the end of this economic system. The debt can never be repaid. Never. This fiat money debt system is on its last legs. No amount of QT or rising interest rates can change that. The dollar is finished as the world currency. The only options remaining are to completely reset or start another system. Neither of those options are seamless or painless. In fact, just the opposite. It will bring what we have never experienced. One last other note, in this end of system economy, raising interest rates is not going to decrease inflation. Raising interest rates does not address scarcities and other issues. Expect the real inflation number to rise to around 35% to 40% at its peak. It is at around 18% to 20% now. 

[batman_fan]

On 9/16/2022 at 9:04 PM, Bill C said:

In 1987 I made the mistake of eating a whole jar of peanut butter and a whole jar of fluffernutter (as sandwiches) over the course of a couple days. I have never been so impacted.

A Taco Bell CHIPOTLE CHEDDAR CHALUPA would have cleared that up had they existed in 1987.

[Rick2you2]

On 9/16/2022 at 7:20 PM, drdonaldblake1 said:

Re the shallow end feeding frenzy for lower quality material, those Miller DD PAGes with virtually no DD images going for $20-30k 🤯

Then this week someone on CAF out up a DD page # 160 I think, with one or two DD images asking $100k....insanity

Found this on-line from the the History channel. https://www.history.com/news/tulip-mania-financial-crash-holland.

[Rick2you2]

On 9/15/2022 at 8:27 PM, Grant Turner said:

Not being facetious…

is there talk about silver age stuff gathering dust?  Certainly not Marvel hero stuff, at least not that I see

Since you asked, I decided to test my sense of hobby pricing. As I am sure you know, Murphy Anderson is a well respected artist, and his Hawkman work is certainly outstanding. But, if you stay away from the prices on his covers and major splashes, and focus on panel pages, you can see what I mean. 

I had seen a Hawkman panel page go for $2,400 at the recent Heritage auction, and I was shocked at what I thought was a bargain. Turns out, it was only a fair price by historic standards, but not a bargain. First, here is the page:

I then went back through Heritage's old auction results to develop comparisons. When doing so, I limited my criteria to exclude any covers, almost all full page splashes, and almost anything that wasn't from Hawkman. I did include a few Atom and Hawkman pages when I saw them (since it was a continuation of the Hawkman and the Atom books), a single Mystery in Space page from a Hawkman story and one splash from A&H (which had a very small image of Hawkman, and mostly consisted of the Gentleman Ghost).  Mostly, the inclusions were due to a time gap of comparables. I also excluded pages from Hawkman which did not include him. There were a number of sales of multiple pages, which, on a per page basis, were more or less in line with other prices. 

Another point worth mentioning is the Consumer Price Index. The first table entry is from July, 2002 for $1,840.00. By August, 2022, $1,840.00 inflated to $3,025.84. Oh, and don't forget, Heritage has also increased its premium over the years.

Here's the result from an MS Word table (which didn't paste in very elegantly), with some comments in the middle. 

Date	Comments	Price
07/04/02	With both Hawkman and Hawkwoman	$1,840.00
03/08/03	Includes large vertical panels	$1,322.50
03/08/03	Attempted Flip, same as 07/04/02	$1,782.50
01/02/05	Includes Hawkman and Hawkwoman	$920.00
02/29/08	5 panel, 3 mini-splashes, both Hawks	$2,031.50
08/02/13	Bland, 7 panel, 2 mini-splashes	$1,553.50
05/13/16	Mostly, one large splash (nice piece, but look at 08/04/18)	$2,629.00
02/25/17	Atom and Hawkman, w/half splash	$2,390.00
02/23/18	Hawkman, all 5 panels	$2,509.50
08/03/18	Includes 2 mini-splashes, with fight scene. High quality 5 panel	$3,600.00
08/04/18	Same splash as 05/13/16	$1,200.00
08/03/19	Attempted flip of 08/03/18	$3,240.00
05/02/20	Mystery in Space, Hawkman story	$1,620.00
09/11/20	Same as one for 03/08/03	$6,600.00
12/14/20	Atom and Hawkman, p. 1 splash with little Hawkman and big Gentleman Ghost	$1,440.00
04/08/22	From Hawkman 1, 2 mini-splashes	$6,600.00
09/11/22	Adam Strange and Hawkman	$2,400.00

In fairness to Mr. Anderson, his covers and major splashes do appear to have done a good deal better. On the other hand, these results seem broadly consistent with the prices of his efforts on different books for panel pages. 

Now, I haven't checked, yet, but I will wager that Silver Age Marvel has done a lot better for B-level hero's like Hawkman 

All of this is to my point that subcategories of art should be in the discussion of OA. We do a disservice to collectors when we paint with a broad brush, and permit dealers to overcharge when we buy into it.

Edited September 17, 2022 by Rick2you2

[jjonahjameson11]

On 9/17/2022 at 11:49 AM, Rick2you2 said:

Since you asked, I decided to test my sense of hobby pricing. As I am sure you know, Murphy Anderson is a well respected artist, and his Hawkman work is certainly outstanding. But, if you stay away from the prices on his covers and major splashes, and focus on panel pages, you can see what I mean. 

I had seen a Hawkman panel page go for $2,400 at the recent Heritage auction, and I was shocked at what I thought was a bargain. Turns out, it was only a fair price by historic standards, but not a bargain. First, here is the page:

I then went back through Heritage's old auction results to develop comparisons. When doing so, I limited my criteria to exclude any covers, almost all full page splashes, and almost anything that wasn't from Hawkman. I did include a few Atom and Hawkman pages when I saw them (since it was a continuation of the Hawkman and the Atom books), a single Mystery in Space page from a Hawkman story and one splash from A&H (which had a very small image of Hawkman, and mostly consisted of the Gentleman Ghost).  Mostly, the inclusions were due to a time gap of comparables. I also excluded pages from Hawkman which did not include him. There were a number of sales of multiple pages, which, on a per page basis, were more or less in line with other prices. 

Another point worth mentioning is the Consumer Price Index. The first table entry is from July, 2002 for $1,840.00. By August, 2022, $1,840.00 inflated to $3,025.84. Oh, and don't forget, Heritage has also increased its premium over the years.

Here's the result from an MS Word table (which didn't paste in very elegantly), with some comments in the middle. 

Date	Comments	Price
07/04/02	With both Hawkman and Hawkwoman	$1,840.00
03/08/03	Includes large vertical panels	$1,322.50
03/08/03	Attempted Flip, same as 07/04/02	$1,782.50
01/02/05	Includes Hawkman and Hawkwoman	$920.00
02/29/08	5 panel, 3 mini-splashes, both Hawks	$2,031.50
08/02/13	Bland, 7 panel, 2 mini-splashes	$1,553.50
05/13/16	Mostly, one large splash (nice piece, but look at 08/04/18)	$2,629.00
02/25/17	Atom and Hawkman, w/half splash	$2,390.00
02/23/18	Hawkman, all 5 panels	$2,509.50
08/03/18	Includes 2 mini-splashes, with fight scene. High quality 5 panel	$3,600.00
08/04/18	Same splash as 05/13/16	$1,200.00
08/03/19	Attempted flip of 08/03/18	$3,240.00
05/02/20	Mystery in Space, Hawkman story	$1,620.00
09/11/20	Same as one for 03/08/03	$6,600.00
12/14/20	Atom and Hawkman, p. 1 splash with little Hawkman and big Gentleman Ghost	$1,440.00
04/08/22	From Hawkman 1, 2 mini-splashes	$6,600.00
09/11/22	Adam Strange and Hawkman	$2,400.00

In fairness to Mr. Anderson, his covers and major splashes do appear to have done a good deal better. On the other hand, these results seem broadly consistent with the prices of his efforts on different books for panel pages. 

Now, I haven't checked, yet, but I will wager that Silver Age Marvel has done a lot better for B-level hero's like Hawkman 

All of this is to my point that subcategories of art should be in the discussion of OA. We do a disservice to collectors when we paint with a broad brush, and permit dealers to overcharge when we buy into it.

iIRC, you may have forgotten to factor in the plethora of Anderson artwork that flooded the market shortly after his death.