THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[Hulksdaddy1]

[Sqeggs]

My "argument", such as it is, was actually an opinion in response to a direct question from the OP to me. Sqeggs also offered an opinion referencing GPA which I pointed out was missing a sale, for whatever reason.

 

Not that it really matters, but silentassassin was, I think, throwing the question out there without addressing anyone directly -- his post was actually a response to an unrelated post from passion4comics.

[Jaydogrules]

I didn't say they capture everything....but when it comes to ebay sales that complete, they do.

 

And if the last sale was $8500, would you be arguing the book is worth $8500? hmm..... somehow I doubt it. I mean, you never stop buzzing about how wonderful AF15 is and skyrocketing in price and nothing can touch it and blah blah blah.

 

 

I thought this conversation would be over since GPA has chimed in.

 

My "argument", such as it is, was actually an opinion in response to a direct question from the OP to me. Sqeggs also offered an opinion referencing GPA which I pointed out was missing a sale, for whatever reason. You decided to offer your opinion (also based on incomplete data) while also attacking me (again) for whatever reason.

 

Now that GPA will be updated to reflect that missing 3.0 sale of $13.5K, and taken together with the sale of the 2.5 for $10,250 yesterday, do you still stand by your current value estimate of a CGC 3.0 of $10k-$10.5k?

 

-J.

 

 

Yes, I 100% stand behind my statements, though you've (go figure) misrepresented them. I said MV was likely $10.5-$12.5K and encouraged the OP to shoot for $10.0K-$10.5K, sparing the seller some fees in the process.

 

Now, back to this sale you keep touting.... THAT SALE DID NOT HAPPEN. Note that GPA would have ultimately caught this anyways, because the regular data feeds will reverse sales that are cancelled or don't complete for any reason (I suppose the exception is if the seller is a shill and chooses not to cancel the deal and get his fees returned).

 

This particular AF15 did NOT close, just as I've asserted from the beginning. When a sale doesn't show up under sold listings under a global search (within the appropriate window of time), then that's a pretty good clue. BUT, because I'm sure you'll just keep arguing, I emailed the seller asking about the book. He noted the book was still available and is still trying to sell it. Perhaps I'll see if I can negotiate a price for he OP on it (OP - shoot me a PM and I'll see what can be done).

 

I've shared all this with George @GPA too, and he has ultimate decision of course....but I trust their judgement, and think they do a fine job, managing the data in this (not-so-easy) space. Yes, ComicLink data would be nice to be in the database, but that has been discussed ad nauseoum and Its not GPA's fault.

 

Jay, Ive seen you blast others time and time again for promoting their agenda, arguing price increases for particular books......you hear that sound? That's the hypocrisy meter chiming a new record.......you're doing exactly the same thing (with AFs) and have been forever. Hmmmm, isn't AF15 you're top 2-3 most valuable book?

 

 

In case you have forgotten let me repeat myself one more time...

 

I DONT SELL BOOKS HAVE NEVER SOLD BOOKS AND PORBABLY NEVER WILL, God willing.

 

THEREFORE I DON'T CARE WHAT THEY ARE "WORTH".

 

I have pointed out numerous books that were artificially raised in value because of shilling. I have pointed out AF 15 scams. You seem determined to discredit this one sale for some reason to be "right". What exactly does it prove? It proves nothing.

 

Because the fact remains that you did not see the sale. GPA did not pick up the sale (for the reasons George stated). Their algorithms don't pick up every ebay sale (for the reasons George stated). You stated that if it is not in GPA it did not happen. And that is still a patently incorrect statement.

 

If you decided to take the time to further investigate this one sale (after I alerted you to it), then good for you man. I didn't do that. I simply reported in good faith one apparent ebay sale that nobody else (included GPA) seemed to catch in response to the OP who specifically asked "me" what "I" thought about a CGC 3.0. Recognizing that sale seemed "high" I said $12k-$13k. You evidently at least partly agree with that range.

 

So what exactly is the point of all the petty sniping?

 

-J.

[Sqeggs]

Getting back to silentassassin's question, I would say the 3.0 in the other company's slab presented reasonably well with no Marvel chipping and just sold for $10,850 on CLink. (Admittedly, I don't know what the back cover looks like and I haven't looked at the grading notes.)

 

That result, combined with GPA data makes me think $11K is still a decent ballpark figure for a 3.0. If he is willing to pay $11K to $12K and approached dealers with that range, someone would probably come up with a copy for him.

[Jaydogrules]

Getting back to silentassassin's question, I would say the 3.0 in the other company's slab presented reasonably well with no Marvel chipping and just sold for $10,850 on CLink. (Admittedly, I don't know what the back cover looks like and I haven't looked at the grading notes.)

 

That result, combined with GPA data makes me think $11K is still a decent ballpark figure for a 3.0. If he is willing to pay $11K to $12K and approached dealers with that range, someone would probably come up with a copy for him.

 

So putting aside the fact that the Voldemort 3.0 only sold for $650 more than a CGC 2.5 and that Voldy regularly sells for a 10-25% discount to comparable CGC, are you saying that you believe there is only about a $750-$1750 bump from a CGC 2.5 to 3.0? (Not asking in a sarcastic way, I'm genuinely interested if that's what you are saying. ).

 

-J.

[Sqeggs]

Getting back to silentassassin's question, I would say the 3.0 in the other company's slab presented reasonably well with no Marvel chipping and just sold for $10,850 on CLink. (Admittedly, I don't know what the back cover looks like and I haven't looked at the grading notes.)

 

That result, combined with GPA data makes me think $11K is still a decent ballpark figure for a 3.0. If he is willing to pay $11K to $12K and approached dealers with that range, someone would probably come up with a copy for him.

 

So putting aside the fact that the Voldemort 3.0 only sold for $650 more than a CGC 2.5 and that Voldy regularly sells for a 10-25% discount to comparable CGC, are you saying that you believe there is only about a $750-$1750 bump from a CGC 2.5 to 3.0? (Not asking in a sarcastic way, I'm genuinely interested if that's what you are saying. ).

 

-J.

 

Yeah, I wouldn't say that's an unreasonable gap, but, of course, we have to throw in all the usual provisos about how the strengths and weaknesses of a particular book can affect prices.

 

There was a recent sale of a 3.5 OW-W for $11,353. I don't remember that book and perhaps it has some shortcomings that explain the low price. Still I would be surprised if the op couldn't find a 3.0 he would be happy with well below $12K.

 

Not to venture into forbidden territory, but I don't see the other company's 3.0 as having been overgraded -- but I'm going entirely on the look of the front cover.

[Jaydogrules]

Getting back to silentassassin's question, I would say the 3.0 in the other company's slab presented reasonably well with no Marvel chipping and just sold for $10,850 on CLink. (Admittedly, I don't know what the back cover looks like and I haven't looked at the grading notes.)

 

That result, combined with GPA data makes me think $11K is still a decent ballpark figure for a 3.0. If he is willing to pay $11K to $12K and approached dealers with that range, someone would probably come up with a copy for him.

 

So putting aside the fact that the Voldemort 3.0 only sold for $650 more than a CGC 2.5 and that Voldy regularly sells for a 10-25% discount to comparable CGC, are you saying that you believe there is only about a $750-$1750 bump from a CGC 2.5 to 3.0? (Not asking in a sarcastic way, I'm genuinely interested if that's what you are saying. ).

 

-J.

 

Yeah, I wouldn't say that's an unreasonable gap, but, of course, we have to throw in all the usual provisos about how the strengths and weaknesses of a particular book can affect prices.

 

There was a recent sale of a 3.5 OW-W for $11,353. I don't remember that book and perhaps it has some shortcomings that explain the low price. Still I would be surprised if the op couldn't find a 3.0 he would be happy with well below $12K.

 

Not to venture into forbidden territory, but I don't see the other company's 3.0 as having been overgraded -- but I'm going entirely on the look of the front cover.

 

 

-J.

[roulette44]

Haven't forgot anything, but you declared lack of interest in selling means nothing. You promote your agenda relentlessly. You can do whatever you want, but as they say, if you dish it, you must be able to take it.

 

What bugs me is when your endeavors are bad for the hobby. I've said that several times. You say "just my opinion" sometimes, but some of the points you argue you do so without fact and even with a bunch of people trying to educate you, you continue down your path.

 

In this particular case, I was just trying to help a guy buy a book and not overpay for it unnecessarily. Then you misquote me

 

And I really wish you would stop with the voldy assault - Im only worried about the broader hobby health. The relative value/pricing between the two is something that can only be speculated, but Im confident you've grossly overestimated the impact here - especially for a book like AF15.

 

You never answered my question from earlier either - looks like a voldy 4.0 sold for $17k right around the time a Cgc sold for $13k. I don't believe this proves anything but by your logic, the next sale should be $22k......

[roulette44]

Back to core conversation -- when it comes to determining market value, there are dozens of confounders which skew numbers for any one sale - looking at trends and making proper adjustments is the way I would do it. Factoring in things like

- site of sale

- format (auction/BIN)

- presence of outlier defects (chipping/writing)

- color strike

- when slab was graded

- technical appearance relative to grade

- number of other copies presently available

- last sale price (see, there it is! )

- other external trends

- location of book

- record/credibility of seller

- terms of sale (availability of time payments, eg)

 

So yes, we look at the last sale. But there are times where the market value should be well below that last sale; slightly below, equal to, slightly more than, way more than, etc.)

 

 

[Jaydogrules]

Haven't forgot anything, but you declared lack of interest in selling means nothing. You promote your agenda relentlessly. You can do whatever you want, but as they say, if you dish it, you must be able to take it.

 

What bugs me is when your endeavors are bad for the hobby. I've said that several times. You say "just my opinion" sometimes, but some of the points you argue you do so without fact and even with a bunch of people trying to educate you, you continue down your path.

 

In this particular case, I was just trying to help a guy buy a book and not overpay for it unnecessarily. Then you misquote me

 

And I really wish you would stop with the voldy assault - Im only worried about the broader hobby health. The relative value/pricing between the two is something that can only be speculated, but Im confident you've grossly overestimated the impact here - especially for a book like AF15.

 

You never answered my question from earlier either - looks like a voldy 4.0 sold for $17k right around the time a Cgc sold for $13k. I don't believe this proves anything but by your logic, the next sale should be $22k......

 

Yes a terrible looking Voldy 4.0 sold for more than an even worse looking (and probably over-graded) CGC sold for a month later during the holidays.

 

I didn't say Voldy "always" sells for less. I said it regularly does. Which it does.

 

And I'm flattered you think my opinions can dramatically impact the hobby so much. Maybe you should PM me the talking points that you think I should be covering.

 

-J.

[namisgr]

Back to core conversation -- when it comes to determining market value, there are dozens of confounders which skew numbers for any one sale - looking at trends and making proper adjustments is the way I would do it. Factoring in things like

- site of sale

- format (auction/BIN)

- presence of outlier defects (chipping/writing)

- color strike

- when slab was graded

- technical appearance relative to grade

- number of other copies presently available

- last sale price (see, there it is! )

- other external trends

- location of book

- record/credibility of seller

- terms of sale (availability of time payments, eg)

 

 

You forget page quality and cover paper quality.

[drbanner]

Back to core conversation -- when it comes to determining market value, there are dozens of confounders which skew numbers for any one sale - looking at trends and making proper adjustments is the way I would do it. Factoring in things like

- site of sale

- format (auction/BIN)

- presence of outlier defects (chipping/writing)

- color strike

- when slab was graded

- technical appearance relative to grade

- number of other copies presently available

- last sale price (see, there it is! )

- other external trends

- location of book

- record/credibility of seller

- terms of sale (availability of time payments, eg)

 

 

You forget page quality and cover paper quality.

Yes, white paged copies do sell for more so that's definitely a key consideration.

[Jaydogrules]

Back to core conversation -- when it comes to determining market value, there are dozens of confounders which skew numbers for any one sale - looking at trends and making proper adjustments is the way I would do it. Factoring in things like

- site of sale

- format (auction/BIN)

- presence of outlier defects (chipping/writing)

- color strike

- when slab was graded

- technical appearance relative to grade

- number of other copies presently available

- last sale price (see, there it is! )

- other external trends

- location of book

- record/credibility of seller

- terms of sale (availability of time payments, eg)

 

 

You forget page quality and cover paper quality.

Yes, white paged copies do sell for more so that's definitely a key consideration.

 

...except when they don't.

 

-J.

[Mr. 10%]

Sorry I got lost somewhere along the way. But please tell me: what cause do these of mutual accusations actually serve?

[lou_fine]

 

Does anybody know if they also collect the slabbed sales for the Voldemort graded books?

 

GPA doesn't. GoCollect.com does.

 

GoCollect's data is relatively recent though, while GPA goes back over a decade.

 

How much does GPA charge for their monthly membership? Looks like GoCollect only has data going back to 2014.

 

Hopefully, GPA will add in the data for Voldemort's sales results, otherwise they would be capturing an even more limited picture going forward as compared to before.

 

They don't data mine for PGX either and that doesn't seem to make much of a difference.

 

I'd be happy if they collected CGC data from ComicLink and some of the larger private dealers though ....

 

-J.

 

Totally agree with you that GPA should be collecting data from CL as that represents a significant part of the auction market here. Has CL provided a plausible explanation yet as to why they do not provide their data to GPA?

 

Totally disagree with your viewpoint on mining data on Voldy books as they are certainly not in the same class as PGX. This is almost tantamount to putting CGC on the same level as PGX which is preposterous from my point of view. Have you forgotten who the key people are in the new grading company, where they came from, and their decades of experience in the industry? Certainly not newbies they are just hiring off the street with very limited years in the industry.

 

Actually, I believe the ideal situation would be for GPA to mine data from both (if not all) of the major grading companies and then keep this information segregated within their database. I believe this would provide the best possible source of sales data to both potential buyers/sellers to make a more fully informed purchasing/selling decision.

[namisgr]

Back to core conversation -- when it comes to determining market value, there are dozens of confounders which skew numbers for any one sale - looking at trends and making proper adjustments is the way I would do it. Factoring in things like

- site of sale

- format (auction/BIN)

- presence of outlier defects (chipping/writing)

- color strike

- when slab was graded

- technical appearance relative to grade

- number of other copies presently available

- last sale price (see, there it is! )

- other external trends

- location of book

- record/credibility of seller

- terms of sale (availability of time payments, eg)

 

 

You forget page quality and cover paper quality.

Yes, white paged copies do sell for more so that's definitely a key consideration.

 

...except when they don't.

 

-J.

 

Which is rarely.

 

The highest priced sale of a 6.0 recorded in GPA had white pages. It fetched 19% more than any other copy has sold for at that grade, and is the only white paged copy to have sold at that grade level in the past 3 years. The second highest recorded sale for a 6.0 had ow/w page quality.

 

The three highest sales ever recorded for a 5.0 all had ow/w page quality. In the past 3 years, no white paged sales are recorded at that grade.

 

The two highest recorded sales for a 3.0 were for ow/w paged copies, both sold last year. There were no recorded sales for a white pager in this grade. Conversely, the two lowest selling copies last year in this grade had c/ow pages.

 

There have been too few sales of this book in conditions above 6.0 over the past two years to refute the importance of white pages to selling price.

 

Are there recent examples of white paged copies underperforming compared with a ow or c/ow example, or are you just blowing hot air again?

[drbanner]

[anstettoman]

so what would a moderately professionally restored stan lee signature series 6.5 with ow/w pages be worth??

[Iceman399]

Back to core conversation -- when it comes to determining market value, there are dozens of confounders which skew numbers for any one sale - looking at trends and making proper adjustments is the way I would do it. Factoring in things like

- site of sale

- format (auction/BIN)

- presence of outlier defects (chipping/writing)

- color strike

- when slab was graded

- technical appearance relative to grade

- number of other copies presently available

- last sale price (see, there it is! )

- other external trends

- location of book

- record/credibility of seller

- terms of sale (availability of time payments, eg)

 

 

You forget page quality and cover paper quality.

Yes, white paged copies do sell for more so that's definitely a key consideration.

 

...except when they don't.

 

-J.

 

Which is rarely.

 

The highest priced sale of a 6.0 recorded in GPA had white pages. It fetched 19% more than any other copy has sold for at that grade, and is the only white paged copy to have sold at that grade level in the past 3 years. The second highest recorded sale for a 6.0 had ow/w page quality.

 

The three highest sales ever recorded for a 5.0 all had ow/w page quality. In the past 3 years, no white paged sales are recorded at that grade.

 

The two highest recorded sales for a 3.0 were for ow/w paged copies, both sold last year. There were no recorded sales for a white pager in this grade. Conversely, the two lowest selling copies last year in this grade had c/ow pages.

 

There have been too few sales of this book in conditions above 6.0 over the past two years to refute the importance of white pages to selling price.

 

Are there recent examples of white paged copies underperforming compared with a ow or c/ow example, or are you just blowing hot air again?

 

Don't bother trying on the PQ with him. Everyone has tried but because there is a sale at some point or another where a CR/OW out sells a OW/W it doesn't matter. I mean its not like someone can find sales of a book with tape outselling one without, or a book with MC outselling one without or a book with writing on the cover/date stamp outselling one without. Its a useless and pointless argument with Jay

[Jaydogrules]

Back to core conversation -- when it comes to determining market value, there are dozens of confounders which skew numbers for any one sale - looking at trends and making proper adjustments is the way I would do it. Factoring in things like

- site of sale

- format (auction/BIN)

- presence of outlier defects (chipping/writing)

- color strike

- when slab was graded

- technical appearance relative to grade

- number of other copies presently available

- last sale price (see, there it is! )

- other external trends

- location of book

- record/credibility of seller

- terms of sale (availability of time payments, eg)

 

 

You forget page quality and cover paper quality.

Yes, white paged copies do sell for more so that's definitely a key consideration.

 

...except when they don't.

 

-J.

 

Which is rarely.

 

The highest priced sale of a 6.0 recorded in GPA had white pages. It fetched 19% more than any other copy has sold for at that grade, and is the only white paged copy to have sold at that grade level in the past 3 years. The second highest recorded sale for a 6.0 had ow/w page quality.

 

The three highest sales ever recorded for a 5.0 all had ow/w page quality. In the past 3 years, no white paged sales are recorded at that grade.

 

The two highest recorded sales for a 3.0 were for ow/w paged copies, both sold last year. There were no recorded sales for a white pager in this grade. Conversely, the two lowest selling copies last year in this grade had c/ow pages.

 

There have been too few sales of this book in conditions above 6.0 over the past two years to refute the importance of white pages to selling price.

 

Are there recent examples of white paged copies underperforming compared with a ow or c/ow example, or are you just blowing hot air again?

 

I've blown holes in this myth on numerous occasions. You've cherry picked a couple recent examples. I can cherry pick some as well. Without even trying very hard, and starting at the very bottom of the census, I see all of the current GPA highs in a 1.5, 1.8, and 2.0 all have "Cr/Ow" on the label.

 

Once again, all that tells us is that the "PQ" on the label does not matter to enough people for it to be consistently reflected in prices. The lack of consistency is prima facie evidence that no "premium" exists or can even be proven.

 

Maybe you pay a "premium" based on that and nothing else and that's good for you. Some people pay "premiums" for eye appeal, centering, lack of chipping, etc. But even "premiums" for those things are impossible to quantify or prove. There will ALWAYS be too many other factors at play, as Joey D. pointed out in his earlier post, that will affect price, and one is not more important or a "guaranteed premium" over the other. That's where the myth lies.

 

I don't think you really want to go down this rabbit hole again.

 

-J.