Market correction , will we see any effect on comics? 7 7

[Beige]

On 6/12/2022 at 10:57 AM, Ryan. said:

With regards to UF 4 specifically, there is a growing rumor, baseless or not, that a handful of dealers are sitting on massive amounts of high grade raw copies that are being slowly leaked out to the market. Could be nonsense but if enough people believe it they won't pour thousands into a 9.8 if there's even the possibility the rumor is true.

A guy posted his haul of UF #4 in the modern section - I'm sure someone saved it.

A whole tableful of raw and graded.

Enough copies to buy a nice house in Melbourne tbh.

It still won't stop UF #4 going stratospheric when MM gets his own live action movie run.

For younger people - he IS Spider-Man.

[WolverineX]

On 6/11/2022 at 9:33 PM, Beige said:

A guy posted his haul of UF #4 in the modern section - I'm sure someone saved it.

A whole tableful of raw and graded.

Enough copies to buy a nice house in Melbourne tbh.

It still won't stop UF #4 going stratospheric when MM gets his own live action movie run.

For younger people - he IS Spider-Man.

That's true.  I was just wondering is UF 4 or invincible 1 9 8 more expensive? Also which had the bigger print run?

[Bookery]

On 6/11/2022 at 8:57 PM, Ryan. said:

With regards to UF 4 specifically, there is a growing rumor, baseless or not, that a handful of dealers are sitting on massive amounts of high grade raw copies that are being slowly leaked out to the market. Could be nonsense but if enough people believe it they won't pour thousands into a 9.8 if there's even the possibility the rumor is true.

That actually happened in my area last year... only with the 2nd printing.  Someone had a case or two of them (apparently 200 copies) and was selling them to area show and shop dealers at 20-30 copies a clip.  200 copies shouldn't have an effect on the national market... but the local area is awash with them... I don't currently buy them at all unless they are just mixed in with a larger collection.

[Bookery]

On 6/11/2022 at 10:48 AM, JB123 said:

If the comics reduce.less than other basic investments then they are actually gaining in value still.

A person can only do as well as the environment is dictating and we try and outperform it if we can.

If the economy loses twenty percent and the comic loses ten percent then it has actually gained ten percent in a certain fashion. It can be liquidated at current value and then buy more goods than it should etc......

This is a sound point.  With inflation as it is... anything that goes down in price on top of the dollar value diminishing is really taking a pretty big hit.  Items keeping pace with inflation are a solid place to put funds right now.  And anything outpacing inflation is a very strong commodity indeed.

[Robot Man]

On 6/7/2022 at 11:18 AM, Dr. Balls said:

This deserves a bump. Comicchron.com is a very cool resource.

Sounds like a virus…

[Bookery]

I have my own comprehensive price/buying guide that I update every couple of months.  Nothing scientific here, but a few general observations as I go through the task of another update.  I'm working on Silver-Bronze right now (haven't gotten to Modern yet):

(1)  A number of down prices, but it seems (so far) like a correction... many of the books that shot up in Feb-April have come back down about the same amount in May-June.  Still well above a year ago. 

(2)  The Big books are not affected, which makes sense.  If you've got $10,000+ to put into a single comic, you probably aren't that affected by higher gas and food prices.  The little books aren't really affected either... if you can't afford $10 for a comic, than lowering it to $8 won't make much difference.  It seems to be mostly hitting the middle... $100-$1000 books.

(3) DC is not affected much at all, with a few exceptions.  But then -- DC hasn't escalated in the past year like many Marvels, and '60s issues are much more difficult to locate in grade.

My 2.5 cents worth (price-adjusted).

[Microchip]

On 6/12/2022 at 11:33 AM, Beige said:

A guy posted his haul of UF #4 in the modern section - I'm sure someone saved it.

A whole tableful of raw and graded.

Enough copies to buy a nice house in Melbourne tbh.

It still won't stop UF #4 going stratospheric when MM gets his own live action movie run.

For younger people - he IS Spider-Man.

Melbourne, Florida?

Melbourne, Australia... a low grade Action 1 will get you a nice pad 

[Beige]

On 6/13/2022 at 9:11 AM, Microchip said:

Melbourne, Florida?

Melbourne, Australia... a low grade Action 1 will get you a nice pad 

Australia - where I live.

Trust me - there were dozens of already graded 9.8's plus a couple of hundred raw copies - I'm going from memory but even if 100 made 9.8 - then that's $400,000AUD + the other hundred plus!

 

Todays Heritage (I only tuned into the first 20% of the sale) was as expected - down probably 10% AVERAGE. Some books set new GPA highs, some dropped 25%

The AF #15 3.0  - $37,000 (with BP) so down $10K. I'm amazed it got that high.

It was a truly ugly copy which would have been more suited with a 2.0 label.

The last 2.5 sale was also an especially unattractive book.

The next major Heritage sale will tell us more I suspect.

[Axe Elf]

On 6/12/2022 at 7:20 PM, Beige said:

The AF #15 3.0  - $37,000 (with BP) so down $10K. I'm amazed it got that high.

It was a truly ugly copy which would have been more suited with a 2.0 label.

We learned in the spring grading contest that a book missing the leading edge of its front cover like that can be as high as a 4.5 by CGC standards as long as it's "Marvel chipping" and not the regular "missing its leading edge" deduction, which we here at G.A.E.™ would concur is more suited to a 2.0 grade.

[Beige]

On 6/13/2022 at 12:17 PM, Axe Elf said:

We learned in the spring grading contest that a book missing the leading edge of its front cover like that can be as high as a 4.5 by CGC standards as long as it's "Marvel chipping" and not the regular "missing its leading edge" deduction, which we here at G.A.E.™ would concur is more suited to a 2.0 grade.

 

It looks more like bug / rodent chews tbh on the edge.Goes all the way through the book.

Combined with the bottom 'waviness' - it just doesn't present well.

Did well to get to $37K imho

[JB123]

On 6/12/2022 at 11:22 PM, Beige said:

 

It looks more like bug / rodent chews tbh on the edge.Goes all the way through the book.

Combined with the bottom 'waviness' - it just doesn't present well.

Did well to get to $37K imho

I agree. I don't think this is an off sale at all. It's a trend to assume all same graded books are actually the same value. That couldn't be further from the truth in reality on the streets.

Collectors can be very picky and knowledgeable and correct.

We know that!

[JB123]

The last time I ran into this was in a shop in Florence SC off i-95. I asked the guy if he wanted a graded key and I wanted to mention it was cream pages......

He said it doesn't matter as long as it's graded at a the grade etc......

For me... That's not comic dealing or collecting. I don't know what that comment meant?

[GermanFan]

AF 15 is not a rare book.

[Microchip]

On 6/13/2022 at 5:51 PM, GermanFan said:

AF 15 is not a rare book.

It's interesting, the book is certainly there in numbers on the census.  Top grade obscurity isn't there as well, compared to it's contemporaries.   Can anyone chime in on this? 

[troydivision1]

It'll be interesting this week, with last night / this morning crypto cliff dive and stocks trending down in premarket, to see if more books start being listed as BIN below 90-day average.

Edited June 13, 2022 by Troy Division

[WolverineX]

On 6/12/2022 at 5:28 PM, Bookery said:

I have my own comprehensive price/buying guide that I update every couple of months.  Nothing scientific here, but a few general observations as I go through the task of another update.  I'm working on Silver-Bronze right now (haven't gotten to Modern yet):

(1)  A number of down prices, but it seems (so far) like a correction... many of the books that shot up in Feb-April have come back down about the same amount in May-June.  Still well above a year ago. 

(2)  The Big books are not affected, which makes sense.  If you've got $10,000+ to put into a single comic, you probably aren't that affected by higher gas and food prices.  The little books aren't really affected either... if you can't afford $10 for a comic, than lowering it to $8 won't make much difference.  It seems to be mostly hitting the middle... $100-$1000 books.

(3) DC is not affected much at all, with a few exceptions.  But then -- DC hasn't escalated in the past year like many Marvels, and '60s issues are much more difficult to locate in grade.

My 2.5 cents worth (price-adjusted).

With the bloodbath unleashed into the markets and crypto today.  There is no question, other assets will be impacted in the upcoming months. 

[Ken Aldred]

On 6/13/2022 at 8:51 AM, GermanFan said:

AF 15 is not a rare book.

 

On 6/13/2022 at 10:27 AM, Microchip said:

It's interesting, the book is certainly there in numbers on the census.  Top grade obscurity isn't there as well, compared to it's contemporaries.   Can anyone chime in on this? 

A bit like Hulk 181.  Common, but demand is stratospheric, as a primary justification for its price point.

[Ken Aldred]

On 6/11/2022 at 5:36 PM, Bookery said:

On the other hand, pulp magazines are in a current explosion similar to the past two years in comics... perhaps even more so.  Price escalations of 3x, 5x, and 10x in just the past year or two are not uncommon.

Interesting that’s happening now with pulps. I think it was you that said that the market seemed quite dead only a short while ago, and that pulp magazines  seemed to be a relic of the past, of another generation, very different to comics.  

Edited June 13, 2022 by Ken Aldred

[Ken Aldred]

On 6/6/2022 at 1:50 AM, Beastfeast said:

But this gate-keeper/boomer idea of "Slabbing is ruining comics!" has been around since CGC started.  I kinda get the idea that people who think that CGC has ruined collecting never really liked collecting to begin with

The back issue market was in a terrible state in the late 90s, and you could pick up loads of stuff cheaply. CGC was a major factor in resurrecting demand.  The secondary market was precarious before slabbing.

[WolverineX]

On 6/12/2022 at 5:28 PM, Bookery said:

I have my own comprehensive price/buying guide that I update every couple of months.  Nothing scientific here, but a few general observations as I go through the task of another update.  I'm working on Silver-Bronze right now (haven't gotten to Modern yet):

(1)  A number of down prices, but it seems (so far) like a correction... many of the books that shot up in Feb-April have come back down about the same amount in May-June.  Still well above a year ago. 

(2)  The Big books are not affected, which makes sense.  If you've got $10,000+ to put into a single comic, you probably aren't that affected by higher gas and food prices.  The little books aren't really affected either... if you can't afford $10 for a comic, than lowering it to $8 won't make much difference.  It seems to be mostly hitting the middle... $100-$1000 books.

(3) DC is not affected much at all, with a few exceptions.  But then -- DC hasn't escalated in the past year like many Marvels, and '60s issues are much more difficult to locate in grade.

My 2.5 cents worth (price-adjusted).

I think the biggest take home we will get from this thread is that the Covid drop and this drop are very different.

During the last drop, the Fed was on our side, now we are fighting the Fed.  I think the 8th wonder of the world "interest rates" will pummel everything into recession.

Edited June 13, 2022 by Wolverinex