Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[universal soldier]

On 11/30/2022 at 4:19 PM, blazingbob said:

Everybody wants to be a Comic Kardashian,  Big Assets.  We get it.

I like big assets and I cannot lie.

[JTLarsen]

I worked at one job where employees got stock. They would cheer when the price went up… eyeing the paper value but not realizing that meant they were getting fewer shares—without realizing the paper value. If you don’t have to sell, a dip is good. Sell high, etc.

[Moondog]

On 11/30/2022 at 5:11 AM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

Yes, I got caught in the mania for a book I knew I’d never see again. I’m glad to have it. But I’ve long resigned myself to the reality of my situation: I’ll be using the loss I’ll likely take on it to offset the profits on the rest of my collection. When the day comes, of course. But that ain’t today. 

Think about the great collections that have surfaced over the years.  Most of them "made" the market rather than being offered at the highest point ever for the hobby.  It's difficult to imagine Edgar Church's collection coming on the market today.  The Promise Collection is a close to that as we'll ever see.

 

[Moondog]

On 11/30/2022 at 5:23 AM, g-man said:

Maybe the 9.2 copy in the auction influenced the bids? I really liked the 8.0 copy. Nice white cover. 

I don't think so.  The 9.2 was only down around 20% from the 12-month average.  I would have been pleased with that result.  40% down stings.

[MAR1979]

On 11/30/2022 at 2:33 PM, supapimp said:

I’m happy that it’s a buyers market currently for non uber high grade books. But at the same time I’m not happy with the market correction on some of my books. Ugh 😑 

Exceptions and outliers not withstanding, at some point next year we'll look back and in retrospect Nov 2022 will seem like a seller's market for Comics and Trading Cards.   The scraps the Bear has been getting thus far will not sate its hunger, only fuel it.

You ain't seen nothin' yet
Baby, you just ain't seen n-n-n-nothin' yet - Randy Bachman

Edited December 1, 2022 by MAR1979

[squidmo2000]

On 11/30/2022 at 9:44 PM, universal soldier said:

I like big assets and I cannot lie.

 

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 11/30/2022 at 10:34 PM, MAR1979 said:

Exceptions and outliers not withstanding, at some point next year we'll look back and in retrospect Nov 2022 will seem like a seller's market for Comics and Trading Cards.   The scraps the Bear has been getting thus far will not sate its hunger, only fuel it.

You ain't seen nothin' yet
Baby, you just ain't seen n-n-n-nothin' yet - Randy Bachman

2022 could definitely be the dip that keeps on dipping.  It will be interesting to see where prices are in March.

[Microchip]

On 12/1/2022 at 3:18 PM, THE_BEYONDER said:

2022 could definitely be the dip that keeps on dipping.  It will be interesting to see where prices are in March.

I'm just not seeing it outside of a few obvious big population books that have cooled on slow news about the character.   The heat has come off the most volatile books.   And I'm seeing the usual swings between the ages, albeit there's more ages to contend with now.   The modern era definitely needs to split apart.   

The old trend was GA goes up, SA looks cheap by. comparison, so then SA goes up.   Then the GA looks cheap(er) in comparison, rinse, repeat.

 

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 12/1/2022 at 5:06 AM, Microchip said:

I'm just not seeing it outside of a few obvious big population books that have cooled on slow news about the character.   The heat has come off the most volatile books.   And I'm seeing the usual swings between the ages, albeit there's more ages to contend with now.   The modern era definitely needs to split apart.   

The old trend was GA goes up, SA looks cheap by. comparison, so then SA goes up.   Then the GA looks cheap(er) in comparison, rinse, repeat.

 

Would love to see the market rebound, but I can’t think of a possible catalyst.   FOMO is gone.  There’s absolutely no rush to buy anything.  Buyers are looking for steals, and sellers/investors are trying to get their money back.    I imagine many are seeing current values as a buying opportunity, but I remain skeptical.   Are big population books like UF 4 going to continue sinking?  At the beginning of the year, a 9.4 cost me over $800.   Now you can buy a 9.6 for $500.   Is $500 a good buy-in price, or is the book going to keep falling?

The easy money gold rush is over.  The excitement of rapidly climbing values is gone.   It’s easy to drop big money on books when you’re entire collection is gaining value every day.   But when the overall value of your existing collection is taking a beating, it’s not so easy to justify.     The current market is putting the squeeze on many. 

[KCOComics]

On 12/1/2022 at 7:52 AM, THE_BEYONDER said:

Would love to see the market rebound, but I can’t think of a possible catalyst.   FOMO is gone.  There’s absolutely no rush to buy anything.  Buyers are looking for steals, and sellers/investors are trying to get their money back.    I imagine many are seeing current values as a buying opportunity, but I remain skeptical.   Are big population books like UF 4 going to continue sinking?  At the beginning of the year, a 9.4 cost me over $800.   Now you can buy a 9.6 for $500.   Is $500 a good buy-in price, or is the book going to keep falling?

The easy money gold rush is over.  The excitement of rapidly climbing values is gone.   It’s easy to drop big money on books when you’re entire collection is gaining value every day.   But when the overall value of your existing collection is taking a beating, it’s not so easy to justify.     The current market is putting the squeeze on many. 

Agreed:, It's why I expect to go back to a normalized market.  What we saw for the 40 years before 2020. 

At some point we will hit a bottom.  Maybe some books have, maybe there is further to fall... Then we'll see slow steady increases for in demand books. Books will get hot .. like AF15 in 2017 or HOS92 did 8 or 10 years ago. But I don't think you'll see every book simultaneously rush back to their 2021 highs. 

 

Disclosure: I've been wrong each and every time I've bet against comics.  I can remember telling a LCS owner "I don't care how good the movie is, no one will ever pay $1500 for a G copy of TOS39"....  

So take my predictions for what they are worth.... A comment on a comic book chat board forum. 

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 12/1/2022 at 8:39 AM, KCOComics said:

Agreed:, It's why I expect to go back to a normalized market.  What we saw for the 40 years before 2020. 

At some point we will hit a bottom.  Maybe some books have, maybe there is further to fall... Then we'll see slow steady increases for in demand books. Books will get hot .. like AF15 in 2017 or HOS92 did 8 or 10 years ago. But I don't think you'll see every book simultaneously rush back to their 2021 highs. 

 

Disclosure: I've been wrong each and every time I've bet against comics.  I can remember telling a LCS owner "I don't care how good the movie is, no one will ever pay $1500 for a G copy of TOS39"....  

So take my predictions for what they are worth.... A comment on a comic book chat board forum. 

I never would have thought a 9.8 HULK 181 would hit $100, but here we are.    I have no clue what to expect in 2023, but thankfully it doesn’t really matter.  I’m not invested in the current market. 

[Westy Steve]

I’ve  put a lot of time and effort into studying collectibles markets.  Doesn’t mean that I know a lot, but it does mean I believe what I say.  I’ve found markets work like inch worms climbing a tree.  The front of the inch worm, which is the first tier material, is always slowly sliding upwards until demographics don’t support it.  Sort of like Howdy Doody collectibles, eventually there was no support for it and even the fist tier Howdy Doody stuff dropped.  Comics are nowhere near that…5 year olds want their Spiderman stuff from Walmart. 
 

The rest of the inch worm is the second tier (banana) and third (banana) stuff.  It constantly plays catch-up to the first tier stuff.  Second tier stuff moves in little hops more often .  Third banana material is the back of the worm that sometimes backslides but when it does move up, it takes big jumps.  As an example, inner city “ghetto” real estate does this in my town…the market has to get really hot for it to move, but when it does, there is a period of gentrification and it just jumps.  The rest of the time, there are faded for sale signs. 2nd and third banana stuff backslides in accordance with its pecking order  1st banana almost never backslides.  

 

It's important to note that first tier material vs. second material isn’t divided up into eras.  Some first tier stuff is golden age, some is silver, and some is modern (TMNT 1)  These are the items that all of us want, but it’s damn painful to buy, and sometimes difficult to even find, except for times like these when people lose confidence. 

 

Conclusion?  Now is the time to buy the stuff you always wanted.  Get it while you can find it.  Your purchase will be viewed as smart when the 5 year old in the Walmart Toy aisle who wants the Spiderman mask grows up.  As for me, I’m focusing on buying a few “big” collectibles here and there, as I can afford them, and even using lay away programs…but I’m buying other genres (like currency and coins).  And I’m focusing on trying to find the stuff I’ve always wanted before it’s completely out of reach.

Edited December 5, 2022 by Westy Steve

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 12/1/2022 at 7:52 AM, THE_BEYONDER said:

Would love to see the market rebound, but I can’t think of a possible catalyst.   FOMO is gone.  There’s absolutely no rush to buy anything.  Buyers are looking for steals, and sellers/investors are trying to get their money back.    I imagine many are seeing current values as a buying opportunity, but I remain skeptical.   Are big population books like UF 4 going to continue sinking?  At the beginning of the year, a 9.4 cost me over $800.   Now you can buy a 9.6 for $500.   Is $500 a good buy-in price, or is the book going to keep falling?

The easy money gold rush is over.  The excitement of rapidly climbing values is gone.   It’s easy to drop big money on books when you’re entire collection is gaining value every day.   But when the overall value of your existing collection is taking a beating, it’s not so easy to justify.     The current market is putting the squeeze on many. 

I think UF #4 is a legitimately interesting book to speculate on because Miles Morales has legitimate potential as an enduring, long-term "franchise" character for Marvel.  But as with everything, timing is critical.  I bought a 9.8 WP for $365 in October 2019.  I don't recall exactly but I am guessing it was right around the time the Spider-Verse movie came out.  To be honest, I was probably late to the party, but still early enough to feel somewhat safe.  I wouldn't have felt nearly as comfortable buying in the 2+ years that followed.

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 12/1/2022 at 10:55 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I think UF #4 is a legitimately interesting book to speculate on because Miles Morales has legitimate potential as an enduring, long-term "franchise" character for Marvel.  But as with everything, timing is critical.  I bought a 9.8 WP for $365 in October 2019.  I don't recall exactly but I am guessing it was right around the time the Spider-Verse movie came out.  To be honest, I was probably late to the party, but still early enough to feel somewhat safe.  I wouldn't have felt nearly as comfortable buying in the 2+ years that followed.

Unless the market collapses completely,  I think you’re good at $365

[EastEnd1]

Books are well off their highs at this point and this time of year is usually pretty slow, even before the pandemic.  I suspect we'll see things start to turnaround a bit in the February-May timeframe, which is usually when we see good momentum on comic prices (bonuses, tax refunds, etc).  I'm speaking generally here...

[mjoeyoung]

Here is one example in the current auction that has me scratching my head:

Amazing Spider-Man #1 3.5 OW-W Sold for $9600

Amazing Spider-Man #1 2.5 OW CONSERVED currently at $9100

 

[MAR1979]

On 12/1/2022 at 11:06 AM, EastEnd1 said:

Books are well off their highs at this point and this time of year is usually pretty slow, even before the pandemic.  I suspect we'll see things start to turnaround a bit in the February-May timeframe, which is usually when we see good momentum on comic prices (bonuses, tax refunds, etc).  I'm speaking generally here...

Due to changes in US tax code in 2017/2018 large refunds are thing of the past for most.  Most (NOT ALL) of what would have been in those refunds results in a few extra dollars per paycheck. Reason I mention that is most folks in the US are no longer receiving a large "windfall" every spring. This has affected many sectors, like home improvements, not just collectibles.

In order for there to be a turn-around in the time frame you mentioned would mean the economy got very well, very fast.  A huge reason for celebration - except it ain't going to occur in just a handful of months.  By Spring 2023 many will be glad just to be employed. 

There will always be hot books and outliers, but the days of almost all books being hot are gone for at least a decade. It took longer than that after the 90's bust and new book sales never recovered. Sellers who have actual business acumen will adapt and be OK but those thinking they can get bubble highs again for all their precious comics are in for pain. Sellers - steady cash flow is a basic business pillar. You can't have that if your sales are low due to high prices.

Edited December 2, 2022 by MAR1979

[Mephisto]

On 12/1/2022 at 1:42 PM, MAR1979 said:

Due to changes in US tax code in 2017/2018 large refunds are thing of the past for most.  Most (NOT ALL) of what would have been in those refunds results in a few extra dollars per paycheck. Reason I mention that is most folks in the US no longer getting a large "windfall" ever spring. It's affected many sectors, like home improvements, not just collectibles.

In order for there to be a turn-around in the time frame you mentioned would mean the economy got very well, very fast.  A huge reason for celebration - except it ain't going to occur in just a handful of months.  By Spring 2023 many will be glad just to be employed. 

There will always be hot books and outliers, but the days of almost all books being hot are gone for at least a decade. It took longer than after the 90's bust and new book sales never recovered. Sellers who have actual business acumen will adapt and be OK but those thinking they can get bubble highs again for all their precious comics are in for pain. Sellers - steady cash flow is a basic business pillar. You can't have that if your sales are low due to high prices.

Ask Gene about the tales I send him of my friend that thinks he can just buy any baseball card or anything that is remotely a "collectible" and put it up on eBay. He just doesn't understand when I tell most of the baseball cards he's been buying are not going back up any time soon if ever again. He literally will buy a card on eBay and then list it again and two weeks later and it either sits or he lists it with a low opening bid (as in his mind a bidding war will start). Instead he almost always takes an absolute bath on the item. My favorite was the Retro Vintage aka produced in 2021 Super Soaker he put an offer in on for $28 plus shipping and then resold for the opening bid price of $9.99. Or maybe it was the Woodstock Poster with unused ticket he paid $318 for with recent comps from the same seller much lower. Lists it at $199.99 opening  bid. Another bath taken. But wait seller contact him and tells him the poster is fake and not vintage and hits him with a neg and is sending it back. Then of course there is the Kobe auto he bought shortly after his death that he recently sent in to PSA which was rejected. So yes these baseball cards you bought over the summer are sure to kick back up in 6 months or less...completely clueless about any types of collectibles and does 0 research despite being given many tools and resources to do so.

[Ryan.]

So when is the great crash that you people all keep talking about and celebrating going to hit the Golden Age books I'm chasing? I keep waiting and waiting and no one wants to sell me the LB Coles I still need for pennies on the dollar. Haven't these sellers heard that the comic market imploded?

[mjoeyoung]

On 12/1/2022 at 1:23 PM, Ryan. said:

So when is the great crash that you people all keep talking about and celebrating going to hit the Golden Age books I'm chasing? I keep waiting and waiting and no one wants to sell me the LB Coles I still need for pennies on the dollar. Haven't these sellers heard that the comic market imploded?