Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[MetalPSI]

On 11/19/2022 at 2:46 PM, ThothAmon said:

 

Orville Redenbacher?

[mjoeyoung]

On 11/20/2022 at 12:03 PM, MetalPSI said:

Orville Redenbacher?

Orville AND Redenbacher 

[MGsimba77]

On 11/18/2022 at 7:32 PM, VintageComics said:

Because one auction sales is not an indicator of the market, and I can give MANY examples. 

The Hulk #181 example was discussed a few pages ago and I think the reasonable conclusion is that those two $50K Sig Series sales were both outliers and possibly even fake sales. I never thought Hulk #181 was a $50K book after those sales, and we now have at least two more sales at $90K+ forming a bottom on the book (and that's two IN THE SAME AUCTION which is even more impressive).

Another book I was surprised about was the ASM #1 CGC 9.6 that sold for $330K. That sounds like a lot of money but in the grand scheme of things, I think that book went incredibly cheap when compared to other ASM #1 sales, AF #15 sales and other related books. In fact, I was shopping around a 9.6 for someone at well over that number a year ago (let's say double) and I was getting interest - not serious enough to sell it - but if the book had been priced as $330K it would have sold many times over. 

So does that mean that ASM #1 is faltering? Hardly. The book is climbing in price in other high grade price points. 

So, this one slipped throw the cracks because another bidder didn't show up to drive price up and I think the buyer got a deal.

We'll know in 6 months where the bottom actually was on this new market but I think people are just currently reactive and not proactive. 

One more thing. I won't name names, but there were dealings buying up books when everyone was selling in 2008-09 and in early 2020. They spend millions buying up people's 'fire sales' books, and they did very well in retrospect.

This is very true. It's just as easy to get caught up in a significant downturn as it is in a significant upswing. I keep thinking the wild card out there is the pandemic crowd that swooped in now having skin in this game. These people have not fallen off the face of the earth. The possibility they come back and start competing against each other to some degree shouldn't be discounted. I don't know if this would be a good or bad thing for comics but it might be a reality. Cash will not be king forever anymore than a supercharged 2020 style QE/ZIRP environment was sustainable long term. Only thing we know for sure right now is it's a terrible idea to put up a big high grade key for auction if you don't have to.

[lou_fine]

On 11/18/2022 at 9:24 AM, DC# said:

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles #1 9.8 - $192k (Goldin)    

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles #1 9.8 - $192k (Heritage)   

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles  #1 9.8 - $186k Sept 2022 (Heritage) 

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles  #1 9.8 - $156k Nov 2022 (Heritage) 

 

On 11/18/2022 at 9:42 AM, mjoeyoung said:

And if you go back to 2021 on the GPA you have 2 sales of $245K and $230K.

And if you go back to 2018 which is really not that long ago, 9.8's were selling only in the mid to upper $30K's.  

So, bottom-line here is..................still a fantastic rate of return if you are a longer term type of collector.  

[DC#]

On 11/20/2022 at 7:03 PM, MGsimba77 said:

This is very true. It's just as easy to get caught up in a significant downturn as it is in a significant upswing. I keep thinking the wild card out there is the pandemic crowd that swooped in now having skin in this game. These people have not fallen off the face of the earth. The possibility they come back and start competing against each other to some degree shouldn't be discounted. I don't know if this would be a good or bad thing for comics but it might be a reality. Cash will not be king forever anymore than a supercharged 2020 style QE/ZIRP environment was sustainable long term. Only thing we know for sure right now is it's a terrible idea to put up a big high grade key for auction if you don't have to.

It is also possible that a percentage of people that joined the comic market (not going to say hobby because it may not accurately describe everyone) in the past 3-4 years may simply depart and not return if they become soured by losses they take.   Easy to love/enjoy the market when the feeling of irrational exuberance has a hold of you and everything is going up and up and you almost can’t make a bad decision when deciding what to buy.  

not quite sure if it is bad or good if they depart……

[Microchip]

 

On 11/19/2022 at 12:10 PM, tth2 said:

On 11/19/2022 at 1:46 AM, delekkerste said:

No, but there were plenty of as-expected and softer-than-expected results yesterday (e.g., Wrightson Frankie plates, Kirby Demon DPS, Byrne FF cover, etc.) To say that the macro environment is not affecting the OA market is simply false - it's no longer rampaging to new highs across the board like it was 6-12 months ago.

And a lot of books are falling off a cliff (granted, from steroidal levels). I know in your Bizarro world that only the top 0.01% of books seem to "matter", but, the books that are falling are collected by far more people and are a far truer indication about the overall health of the market. 

 

You can say what you like, but there is no way you will convince me that comics and OA are experiencing any kind of correction or even softness as long as Defenders covers by Sal Buscema are going for $108k.

Sports Cards - have eased up by 70% across the board

Comics - eased up by 0-40% depending on how many Eternals #1 9.8's your sitting on.

OA -  ...%

 

[Microchip]

On 11/3/2022 at 11:54 AM, DC# said:

Here are some ComicLink Oct/Nov Focused Auction Session 1 results.   As with the past few auctions - this is probably all I will recap this time.   These auctions just go on for sooooo long.   

Looking at this current Clink auction with 9 days to go, I'm expecting to see a green report for all key/semi-key books.

[Dark Knight]

I'm a member at this one comic collecting group on Facebook and one guy posted saying he bought several SA keys back during the height in 2021.  I browsed through the pix and be bought mid grade copies of AF 15, Hulk 1, FF 1, Avengers 1, etc. all in that period.  He is now taking offers to sell his mini collection and realizes he will take a substantial loss.  I believe this is the first time he ever bought comic books because he is a toy collector from what I can gather from his page.   It sucks that a lot of people like him who were not in the hobby before nor have any previous knowledge bought during the peak, now I'm sure because of the spiral downturn we are seeing, he will likely leave the hobby.  

 

[piper]

On 11/21/2022 at 3:56 PM, Dark Knight said:

I'm a member at this one comic collecting group on Facebook and one guy posted saying he bought several SA keys back during the height in 2021.  I browsed through the pix and be bought mid grade copies of AF 15, Hulk 1, FF 1, Avengers 1, etc. all in that period.  He is now taking offers to sell his mini collection and realizes he will take a substantial loss.  I believe this is the first time he ever bought comic books because he is a toy collector from what I can gather from his page.   It sucks that a lot of people like him who were not in the hobby before nor have any previous knowledge bought during the peak, now I'm sure because of the spiral downturn we are seeing, he will likely leave the hobby.  

 

That’s too bad because long term these are all fantastic purchases.

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 11/21/2022 at 2:56 PM, Dark Knight said:

I'm a member at this one comic collecting group on Facebook and one guy posted saying he bought several SA keys back during the height in 2021.  I browsed through the pix and be bought mid grade copies of AF 15, Hulk 1, FF 1, Avengers 1, etc. all in that period.  He is now taking offers to sell his mini collection and realizes he will take a substantial loss.  I believe this is the first time he ever bought comic books because he is a toy collector from what I can gather from his page.   It sucks that a lot of people like him who were not in the hobby before nor have any previous knowledge bought during the peak, now I'm sure because of the spiral downturn we are seeing, he will likely leave the hobby.  

 

I would expect someone that knows nothing of comics to take a bath on their purchases.   If I leaped blindly into the toy market guns a blazing because it looked like easy money....I should expect a bath as well.

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 11/21/2022 at 5:56 PM, Dark Knight said:

I'm a member at this one comic collecting group on Facebook and one guy posted saying he bought several SA keys back during the height in 2021.  I browsed through the pix and be bought mid grade copies of AF 15, Hulk 1, FF 1, Avengers 1, etc. all in that period.  He is now taking offers to sell his mini collection and realizes he will take a substantial loss.  I believe this is the first time he ever bought comic books because he is a toy collector from what I can gather from his page.   It sucks that a lot of people like him who were not in the hobby before nor have any previous knowledge bought during the peak, now I'm sure because of the spiral downturn we are seeing, he will likely leave the hobby.  

 

I wonder though, how do his losses compare to what would have happened if he'd bought sports cards, crypto, or even traditional equities or real estate?  I'm pretty sure every category is down, so the question is how much.

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

On 11/21/2022 at 5:56 PM, Dark Knight said:

I'm a member at this one comic collecting group on Facebook and one guy posted saying he bought several SA keys back during the height in 2021.  I browsed through the pix and be bought mid grade copies of AF 15, Hulk 1, FF 1, Avengers 1, etc. all in that period.  He is now taking offers to sell his mini collection and realizes he will take a substantial loss.  I believe this is the first time he ever bought comic books because he is a toy collector from what I can gather from his page.   It sucks that a lot of people like him who were not in the hobby before nor have any previous knowledge bought during the peak, now I'm sure because of the spiral downturn we are seeing, he will likely leave the hobby.  

 

I hope like most that post here who are not, I believe, "fly by their pants" comic book collectors (investors), if and when I decide to sell my CGC graded comic books if they sell for less than I paid I can thankfully absorb the loss because I have ever only used "comic book money," as I term it, to purchase comic books. Comic book money is money I can lose (100% of it) and it will not impact my current or future financial standing. Granted, if I do sell and it adds to my "pot of money," wonderful.

[alexgross.com]

On 11/21/2022 at 2:56 PM, Dark Knight said:

I'm a member at this one comic collecting group on Facebook and one guy posted saying he bought several SA keys back during the height in 2021.  I browsed through the pix and be bought mid grade copies of AF 15, Hulk 1, FF 1, Avengers 1, etc. all in that period.  He is now taking offers to sell his mini collection and realizes he will take a substantial loss.  I believe this is the first time he ever bought comic books because he is a toy collector from what I can gather from his page.   It sucks that a lot of people like him who were not in the hobby before nor have any previous knowledge bought during the peak, now I'm sure because of the spiral downturn we are seeing, he will likely leave the hobby.  

 

well, if he really needs the money, then i suppose he spent too much last year. if he doesn't, then, as @piper said, all he needs to do is hold some period of time (a few years or several years) and they will likely prove to be great investments, depending on how much he paid. 'buy low sell high' is both the simplest and trickiest investing advice i've ever heard. 

 

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 11/22/2022 at 9:21 AM, alexgross.com said:

well, if he really needs the money, then i suppose he spent too much last year. if he doesn't, then, as @piper said, all he needs to do is hold some period of time (a few years or several years) and they will likely prove to be great investments, depending on how much he paid. 'buy low sell high' is both the simplest and trickiest investing advice i've ever heard. 

 

I think it’s a good rule of thumb to expect to get burned when you enter a market that’s already red hot 

[Roger66]

 

[mjoeyoung]

On 11/21/2022 at 3:56 PM, Dark Knight said:

I'm a member at this one comic collecting group on Facebook and one guy posted saying he bought several SA keys back during the height in 2021.  I browsed through the pix and be bought mid grade copies of AF 15, Hulk 1, FF 1, Avengers 1, etc. all in that period.  He is now taking offers to sell his mini collection and realizes he will take a substantial loss.  I believe this is the first time he ever bought comic books because he is a toy collector from what I can gather from his page.   It sucks that a lot of people like him who were not in the hobby before nor have any previous knowledge bought during the peak, now I'm sure because of the spiral downturn we are seeing, he will likely leave the hobby.  

 

How many of the people new to comic collecting are in the same boat and will also leave the hobby?  If a substantial portion of them sell and leave this will permanently affect value.

How many long term collectors have seen this market as the perfect time to sell their collections and leave the hobby?  I keep seeing threads about how many rare or key books are up for sale.  The current Comic Connect auction has five AF#15s for sale.

If the pool of people buying comics shrinks then it is inevitable that values will fall.

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 11/22/2022 at 1:32 PM, mjoeyoung said:

How many of the people new to comic collecting are in the same boat and will also leave the hobby?  If a substantial portion of them sell and leave this will permanently affect value.

How many long term collectors have seen this market as the perfect time to sell their collections and leave the hobby?  I keep seeing threads about how many rare or key books are up for sale.  The current Comic Connect auction has five AF#15s for sale.

If the pool of people buying comics shrinks then it is inevitable that values will fall.

I think the market will only hold up as long as the new specs continue to hold on.  The moment it becomes apparent that they’ll never get their money back...and these buyers decide to dump their “investments” at a loss....the market will plummet.   Buyers on EBay are still trying to hold on to the value of their book from a year ago.  How long can these sellers hold out?  If you bought an ASM 300 9.8 for 5k, are you going to sell at a 1k loss and move your money elsewhere?  Or are you going to hold on until it drops to 3k?

[ThothAmon]

On 11/22/2022 at 1:32 PM, mjoeyoung said:

If the pool of people buying comics shrinks then it is inevitable that values will fall.

So you’re saying when the value of comics hit zero Chuck will own them all?

[NewWorldOrder]

Prices are fine.  I could not be happier for what real blue chip comics are currently selling at. 

As long as you didn't buy your entire inventory or personal collection during covid you are doing quite well.  If you over paid and bought GA/SA/BA keys you just have to hold on to them for a while don't freak out.

For all those uneducated new speculators or fly by night day trading flippers crying right now because they are still holding copper and modern trek I hope their losses get even worse and their professional and personal lives take a turn for the worst! 

Happy Thanksgiving! 

 

Edited November 22, 2022 by NewWorldOrder

[Dark Knight]

On 11/22/2022 at 6:21 AM, alexgross.com said:

well, if he really needs the money, then i suppose he spent too much last year. if he doesn't, then, as @piper said, all he needs to do is hold some period of time (a few years or several years) and they will likely prove to be great investments, depending on how much he paid. 'buy low sell high' is both the simplest and trickiest investing advice i've ever heard. 

 

He mentioned that he is not strap for money, but I guess he would prefer to sell for a decent price to maybe recover some losses.  As others have mentioned on here, a few people have spoken out that it's better to hold and maybe sell later when prices are heating up. I'm sure some people are DM'ing offers for one book for for all.