Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[Stefan_W]

On 11/29/2022 at 5:04 PM, mjoeyoung said:

I have not had any time to dive into yesterday's sales in the latest Comic Link auction (prices looked strong at first glance), but I wanted to post this image, an example of how "bubbles" form and pop.  This chart looks pretty similar to the Dotcom Boom and Bust from 1996 to 2002.  It will be interesting to look back in a few years and see how many collectibles follow a similar pattern.  My opinion is that comic values as a whole are somewhere around "Bull Trap" and "Return to Normal." Some values seem like bargains now that they have dropped from the heights, but it may be a mirage. It could also be that individual books, or Ages, are at different places. I still think the economy is going to get worse before it gets better, and that it will have an effect on collectible value.  Not sure how it is going to turn out, but the ride is very entertaining! 

 

 

 

 

It has been so-so for me as a seller so far and I haven't been able to find any decent deals as a buyer. My X-Men 12 CGC 8.5 final sale value was ok but a few hundred below what I was hoping for, especially since the 9.0 copy next to it went for a full $1k more. My UF4 went for a good price. I still have a WoSM 1 and a Usagi left to end with the former looking like a decent sale value and the latter still sitting very low compared to what my other 9.8 copies went for. 

Bottom line for me is that I did ok in this auction but not enough to make up for the bloodbath I took the books I had in the auction before. I was hoping to roll them into big keys but I kept just missing out. I ended up buying up smaller books at full price while getting half or less of FMV on a lot of what I sent in, so hard to call it a win right now but the big picture and longer term trends may make my rollover in books look better than it does right now. 

[Stefan_W]

On 12/1/2022 at 3:23 PM, Ryan. said:

So when is the great crash that you people all keep talking about and celebrating going to hit the Golden Age books I'm chasing? I keep waiting and waiting and no one wants to sell me the LB Coles I still need for pennies on the dollar. Haven't these sellers heard that the comic market imploded?

This is exactly what silver age collectors were telling me just before the values on their books started to tank as well. Just because things happen in a certain order does not mean they wont happen. 

[Ryan.]

On 12/3/2022 at 7:52 AM, Stefan_W said:

This is exactly what silver age collectors were telling me just before the values on their books started to tank as well. Just because things happen in a certain order does not mean they wont happen. 

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 12/3/2022 at 7:52 AM, Stefan_W said:

This is exactly what silver age collectors were telling me just before the values on their books started to tank as well. Just because things happen in a certain order does not mean they wont happen. 

I'm not saying there isn't a correction going on, but the pattern I see over and over in this thread is people lamenting the steep drop-offs in certain books and thinking that will automatically apply to the entire market to more or less the same degree.

It shouldn't surprise anyone that high-supply moderns like UF #4 are taking a hit.  Nor am I surprised over in the ASM #194 thread that that book is falling on tough times.

In the Silver Age, there is an enormous difference between the low- to mid-grade market (yes, even among keys) and the 9.4-9.8 market (or the 8.0+ market among the really big keys).  I will admit that in 2021, I had a few big overpays on late-Silver 9.6s (think books that "should" be around $350 that I was winning at $500+), and those books seem generally to have fallen back in line with what I would expect.  I also had a couple of wins last night under $200 which tells me the market definitely isn't overheated like it was before:

I would have expected to pay $350-$450 for each of these in 2021.  I sure hope some of the eBay sellers holding similar books for ransom with $400-$750 asking prices on eBay get the memo and adjust their prices, but I think it will take a while to happen because these guys are not real dealers, which means they don't have access to books at bargain prices and paid full retail / auction prices, putting them in a bad position where they'll have to take a loss if they want to liquidate now.  To me that's the most fascinating part of this whole story -- all the wannabe collectibles entrepreneur bros on eBay and Instagram who overextended themselves and need to figure out what to do now.

But here are a couple of books I won at auction a couple of weeks ago, and trust me there were no bargains to be had:

I would say the ASM #9 sold for just about what I expected based on historical GPA / GoCollect data.  The JIM #89 cost me a very pretty penny -- it probably set a record.  Why?  I think it's because anyone who wants this book knows they might have to wait years before they see another 9.4.  It's all about scarcity IMHO.

I am not a Golden Age collector, but when just about every book is in short supply in all grades, you simply shouldn't expect to see the same severity in the downturn as you're seeing on that signature series variant cover from 2007.  As long as there are enough people who want that classic cover or first appearance -- and in an auction, all it takes is two! -- demand will exceed supply and prices will stay strong.  It's the late-Bronze and Modern books where you see some guy posting their group shot of 50 copies of the same book that should be flashing bright red, because there simply aren't enough different buyers to support the supply in the market.

Edited December 3, 2022 by Sweet Lou 14

[Stefan_W]

On 12/3/2022 at 8:31 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I'm not saying there isn't a correction going on, but the pattern I see over and over in this thread is people lamenting the steep drop-offs in certain books and thinking that will automatically apply to the entire market to more or less the same degree.

It shouldn't surprise anyone that high-supply moderns like UF #4 are taking a hit.  Nor am I surprised over in the ASM #194 thread that that book is falling on tough times.

In the Silver Age, there is an enormous difference between the low- to mid-grade market (yes, even among keys) and the 9.4-9.8 market (or the 8.0+ market among the really big keys).  I will admit that in 2021, I had a few big overpays on late-Silver 9.6s (think books that "should" be around $350 that I was winning at $500+), and those books seem generally to have fallen back in line with what I would expect.  I also had a couple of wins last night under $200 which tells me the market definitely isn't overheated like it was before:

I would have expected to pay $350-$450 for each of these in 2021.  I sure hope some of the eBay sellers holding similar books for ransom with $400-$750 asking prices on eBay get the memo and adjust their prices, but I think it will take a while to happen because these guys are not real dealers, which means they don't have access to books at bargain prices and paid full retail / auction prices, putting them in a bad position where they'll have to take a loss if they want to liquidate now.  To me that's the most fascinating part of this whole story -- all the wannabe collectibles entrepreneur bros on eBay and Instagram who overextended themselves and need to figure out what to do now.

But here are a couple of books I won at auction a couple of weeks ago, and trust me there were no bargains to be had:

I would say the ASM #9 sold for just about what I expected based on historical GPA / GoCollect data.  The JIM #89 cost me a very pretty penny -- it probably set a record.  Why?  I think it's because anyone who wants this book knows they might have to wait years before they see another 9.4.  It's all about scarcity IMHO.

I am not a Golden Age collector, but when just about every book is in short supply in all grades, you simply shouldn't expect to see the same severity in the downturn as you're seeing on that signature series variant cover from 2007.  As long as there are enough people who want that classic cover or first appearance -- and in an auction, all it takes is two! -- demand will exceed supply and prices will stay strong.  It's the late-Bronze and Modern books where you see some guy posting their group shot of 50 copies of the same book that should be flashing bright red, because there simply aren't enough different buyers to support the supply in the market.

I totally agree with everything you are saying. Scarcity is really important in how the market plays out. Books with 4k+ 9.8 copies in the census and with daily sales are going to hit the peaks and valleys of the larger comic market trends. However, less common books where there may be a sale every few years are not going to respond to market blips in the same way. 

I track the total value of my PC at the end of every month and the books that are bouncing are the ones that have new sales. The most secure books I have are the ones where I dont change the value from month to month because there is nothing new to go on. 

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 12/1/2022 at 3:23 PM, Ryan. said:

So when is the great crash that you people all keep talking about and celebrating going to hit the Golden Age books I'm chasing? I keep waiting and waiting and no one wants to sell me the LB Coles I still need for pennies on the dollar. Haven't these sellers heard that the comic market imploded?

Need this one?

 

[Ryan.]

On 12/3/2022 at 8:53 AM, THE_BEYONDER said:

Need this one?

 

I don't but thanks for looking out.

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

Like other posters here, recently I've been purchasing CGC graded 9.8 comic books that few/"no one else" want/"s" on the relatively "cheap." Of course, there are myriad reasons why few, if any other, collectors want them.

[Microchip]

There's still a good bit of insanity floating around in the market.   These hammer prices last night floored me!

 

[comicnoir]

On 12/3/2022 at 8:32 PM, Microchip said:

There's still a good bit of insanity floating around in the market.   These hammer prices last night floored me!

 

Those books have beautiful Adams covers and are very hard in grade.

[DavidTheDavid]

I have several copies of Next Men 21, so I watch those prices rather closely in order to compulsively buy more. In a couple of CL auctions, the prices were really soft, including the 9.2 I bought in their last auction. But most recently I'm seeing 9.8s back at previous levels. Lower grades you can still get at dampened prices.

That is all utterly anecdotal, but it's my impression.

[dikran]

With the Canadian dollar where it is actually and the ever increasing shipping costs from the US to Canada, I’m sure a lot of my fellow Canucks have pumped the brakes on big ticket purchases from the States. Buying one book from CLink or Heritage is so cost prohibitive that you force yourself to “fill your cart” as I call it. At least CLink allows you to keep books there until you reach a good number but not HA. 

[Stefan_W]

On 12/3/2022 at 10:04 PM, dikran said:

With the Canadian dollar where it is actually and the ever increasing shipping costs from the US to Canada, I’m sure a lot of my fellow Canucks have pumped the brakes on big ticket purchases from the States. Buying one book from CLink or Heritage is so cost prohibitive that you force yourself to “fill your cart” as I call it. At least CLink allows you to keep books there until you reach a good number but not HA. 

Huh. Heritage allowed me to hold books until I had enough to ship. I did this by contacting customer support and they put a note in my account saying not to ship until I said I was ready. This worked well until shipping times increased and books were not going out until a month or more after I asked to ship. Plus the ugly fact that they were horribly overgrading their raws and people bid like complete insufficiently_thoughtful_persons on them, but that is a separate issue. 

[mjoeyoung]

On 12/3/2022 at 7:30 PM, DavidTheDavid said:

I have several copies of Next Men 21, so I watch those prices rather closely in order to compulsively buy more. In a couple of CL auctions, the prices were really soft, including the 9.2 I bought in their last auction. But most recently I'm seeing 9.8s back at previous levels. Lower grades you can still get at dampened prices.

That is all utterly anecdotal, but it's my impression.

According to the GPA there was a high sale this year of $550 (5 sales $500+), with the 2021 and 2022 average at $421.  The 90 day average is down to $366.  Last 5 sales from oldest to newest: $250, $399, $338, $340, 370.

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

Since prices are "dropping like flies," the next Action Comics 1 CGC graded 10 that comes up for sale or auction is mine.

[COI]

On 12/3/2022 at 8:31 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I'm not saying there isn't a correction going on, but the pattern I see over and over in this thread is people lamenting the steep drop-offs in certain books and thinking that will automatically apply to the entire market to more or less the same degree.

It shouldn't surprise anyone that high-supply moderns like UF #4 are taking a hit.  Nor am I surprised over in the ASM #194 thread that that book is falling on tough times.

In the Silver Age, there is an enormous difference between the low- to mid-grade market (yes, even among keys) and the 9.4-9.8 market (or the 8.0+ market among the really big keys).  I will admit that in 2021, I had a few big overpays on late-Silver 9.6s (think books that "should" be around $350 that I was winning at $500+), and those books seem generally to have fallen back in line with what I would expect.  I also had a couple of wins last night under $200 which tells me the market definitely isn't overheated like it was before:

I would have expected to pay $350-$450 for each of these in 2021.  I sure hope some of the eBay sellers holding similar books for ransom with $400-$750 asking prices on eBay get the memo and adjust their prices, but I think it will take a while to happen because these guys are not real dealers, which means they don't have access to books at bargain prices and paid full retail / auction prices, putting them in a bad position where they'll have to take a loss if they want to liquidate now.  To me that's the most fascinating part of this whole story -- all the wannabe collectibles entrepreneur bros on eBay and Instagram who overextended themselves and need to figure out what to do now.

But here are a couple of books I won at auction a couple of weeks ago, and trust me there were no bargains to be had:

I would say the ASM #9 sold for just about what I expected based on historical GPA / GoCollect data.  The JIM #89 cost me a very pretty penny -- it probably set a record.  Why?  I think it's because anyone who wants this book knows they might have to wait years before they see another 9.4.  It's all about scarcity IMHO.

I am not a Golden Age collector, but when just about every book is in short supply in all grades, you simply shouldn't expect to see the same severity in the downturn as you're seeing on that signature series variant cover from 2007.  As long as there are enough people who want that classic cover or first appearance -- and in an auction, all it takes is two! -- demand will exceed supply and prices will stay strong.  It's the late-Bronze and Modern books where you see some guy posting their group shot of 50 copies of the same book that should be flashing bright red, because there simply aren't enough different buyers to support the supply in the market.

In addition to smaller supply, these types of books, the JIM 89 in particular, are not speculator fodder and are therefore not going to be subject to the volatility associated with all that speculation. Collectors pay more than speculators because they're usually making a long-term play; books are bought to build runs, not flip in 6 months. Even on something like ASM 9 which might draw speculator attention, they're not going to compete at the 9.4 level with so many collectors lining up to get that book for their run. Those collectors got their ASM 194s ages ago, or they're just not prioritizing them because they know they can always get one later.

Even "blue chip" books suffer when they're highly speculated on, like lower-mid grade AF 15s. 

[D2]

This is the lowest I’ve seen in over 2 years 

[lou_fine]

On 12/3/2022 at 7:04 PM, dikran said:

At least CLink allows you to keep books there until you reach a good number but not HA. 

Definitely NOT correct here.  

 

On 12/3/2022 at 7:33 PM, Stefan_W said:

Heritage allowed me to hold books until I had enough to ship. I did this by contacting customer support and they put a note in my account saying not to ship until I said I was ready.

This is exactly right as I remember never getting around to calling them to request that they ship my books out to me, and when I finally did, they shipped quite a few years worth of books to me all at one time.  Thankfully, they didn't missed any and managed to hold all of them for me.  

[dikran]

On 12/5/2022 at 1:18 AM, lou_fine said:

Definitely NOT correct here.  

 

This is exactly right as I remember never getting around to calling them to request that they ship my books out to me, and when I finally did, they shipped quite a few years worth of books to me all at one time.  Thankfully, they didn't missed any and managed to hold all of them for me.  

Well you should call them for me cuz they’ve never allowed me to hold books after many calls… 

[g-man]

On 12/4/2022 at 10:54 PM, D2 said:

This is the lowest I’ve seen in over 2 years 

same book (IMO a nicer copy) on the link ending later today currently at $750