Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[DC#]

On 2/8/2024 at 6:35 AM, PopKulture said:

Is this your channel? Or just a similar approach?

Not my channel.   But for a year or so I was tracking what I was calling a "Dow 30 for Comics" that was tracking 10 books x 3 grade levels across Silver, Bronze, and Copper/Modern - so 90 different books in an attempt to get a sense of the market.   The overall trends were pretty much what Swagglehaus' analysis was showing so I'll just let him do all the work    

[DC#]

Surprisingly strong result on Heritage tonight.     Last 5.0 sale was $8500 in Mar 2023 and a 6.5 sold for $8400 in Dec 2023.     This is a new record on GPA.    Prior peak was $9k

[thedude]

On 2/8/2024 at 8:31 PM, DC# said:

Surprisingly strong result on Heritage tonight.     Last 5.0 sale was $8500 in Mar 2023 and a 6.5 sold for $8400 in Dec 2023.     This is a new record on GPA.    Prior peak was $9k

I thought so too, I am trying to upgrade my copy, feel like this is the next big "must have" Joker book taking off the way Tec #69 did a few years ago.

[Microchip]

I got blown out of the water.

These two books are super low in census numbers, but they're also no nothing issues in the run 

 

[MatterEaterLad]

On 2/20/2024 at 10:46 PM, Microchip said:

I got blown out of the water.

These two books are super low in census numbers, but they're also no nothing issues in the run 

 

Yikes. 

It's been my fear/paranoia that we're going to reach an inflection point where older collectors begin liquidating their collections, the marketplace becomes flooded, and the population of collectors shrinks (specifically collectors of Silver and Bronze Age). The worry is that in that ecosystem, only high grade books increase in value--some skyrocketing--while mid to low grade plummet and never recover because there aren't enough buyers vs. supply. Right now there are 93 graded copies of X-Men #1 on eBay. About 240 graded copies of FF48. I wish I'd counted the number of copies ten years ago, but that seems like a lot. (In related news this is a sobering article about The Long Slow Death of Stamp Collecting)

I know, the argument is that our population is growing in the US, so there will always be an increasing number of collectors, and there are more collectors outside of the US than ever. Not sure it's that simple.

But hey, if you're forever bullish on the comic market, now is the time to buy!

Edited February 21 by MatterEaterLad

[NoMan]

On 2/21/2024 at 7:57 AM, MatterEaterLad said:

(In related news this is a sobering article about The Long Slow Death of Stamp Collecting)

 

This last two sentences of your above linked article needs attention/discussion, I feel:

If you love stamps just for the pure joy of collecting them, then your chosen hobby is likely to become significantly less expensive in the future.  Just don't expect a lucrative financial return from your vintage stamp collection.

 

Edited February 21 by NoMan

[NoMan]

I just buy average comics in the 7.0 - 8.0 range now. If it's a mega key like XMen94, I have a VG/F and call it a day

[comicginger1789]

On 2/21/2024 at 10:57 AM, MatterEaterLad said:

Yikes. 

It's been my fear/paranoia that we're going to reach an inflection point where older collectors begin liquidating their collections, the marketplace becomes flooded, and the population of collectors shrinks (specifically collectors of Silver and Bronze Age). The worry is that in that ecosystem, only high grade books increase in value--some skyrocketing--while mid to low grade plummet and never recover because there aren't enough buyers vs. supply. Right now there are 93 graded copies of X-Men #1 on eBay. About 240 graded copies of FF48. I wish I'd counted the number of copies ten years ago, but that seems like a lot. (In related news this is a sobering article about The Long Slow Death of Stamp Collecting)

I know, the argument is that our population is growing in the US, so there will always be an increasing number of collectors, and there are more collectors outside of the US than ever. Not sure it's that simple.

But hey, if you're forever bullish on the comic market, now is the time to buy!

I can see possible comparisons between this and stamps but I just feel superheroes are much more relevant. Stamps are a tough sell on today's generation.

I am a high school teacher. I have comic related stuff in my classroom. Kids enjoy it because they know the characters from the movies and shows and such and I get a chance to pass along some knowledge about comics whenever asked. I feel I have intrigued a handful of kids in this hobby and while many of them seem to gravitate towards the Copper Age (most accessible "old" time period) I do feel that like myself, they will eventually work their way backwards into older comics. Or at least that is my wish.

[comicginger1789]

It would be great for someone somewhere to collect actual data from conventions and comic shops. What is the average age of today's collector? If it is somewhere between 30-40 I think that would bode well for the hobby as that would be the age range for people to have the right disposable income to spend well enough in this hobby.

Edited February 21 by comicginger1789

[rlextherobot]

On 2/21/2024 at 9:38 AM, comicginger1789 said:

It would be great for someone somewhere to collect actual data from conventions and comic shops. What is the average age of today's collector? If it is somewhere between 30-40 I think that would bode well for the hobby as that would be the age range for people to have the right disposable income to spend well enough in this hobby.

Based purely on some non-data driven anecdotal observations from Fan Expo this past weekend: 

The place was packed to the point of it being difficult to traverse the convention floor pretty much immediately, and the crowd was definitely skewing towards the younger side of things. Those folks were almost all there for anime related things, cosplays, meeting voice actors etc. The contrast between the lineups to meet anime guests and comic guests was considerable, they put the voice actors in the same wide open section as the movie and tv folks, and the comics guests in a narrow area adjacent to artist's alley and even then the latter never felt or looked overly crowded. The folks digging through the bins of the limited number of comics vendors tended to be older (as in mid-thirties to mid-fifties), and while there were younger people who were buying comics, they were either very focused on certain titles (The Flash, Disney books, etc) or trying to grab spec books. 

Now FanExpo is largely a pop cultural event and not a comic show, so I don't think the above should be extrapolated to mean anything about the health of the hobby as a whole. My major concern is that comic collecting is going to hit the same point it did in the nineties where people start to feel taken advantage of by gimmicks (endless reboots, crossovers and variants variants variants) and spec hype (a problem now exacerbated by youtube and instagram influencers) and quit the hobby. What would that mean for any of us as collectors is a good question, but less demand generally equals lower prices (yay!) but could also lead to less availability as fewer people make a living from or take an interest in selling (boo!). 

The health of things like manga and the youth oriented graphic novels that vastly outsell every single superhero book by a significant margin would indicate to me that there will always be an appetite for comics of some kind, but whether that translates to collecting as we understand it... who knows! 

Edited February 21 by rlextherobot

[comicginger1789]

On 2/21/2024 at 2:03 PM, rlextherobot said:

Based purely on some non-data driven anecdotal observations from Fan Expo this past weekend: 

The place was packed to the point of it being difficult to traverse the convention floor pretty much immediately, and the crowd was definitely skewing towards the younger side of things. Those folks were almost all there for anime related things, the cosplays, meeting voice actors etc. The contrast between the lineups to meet anime guests and comic guests was considerable, they put the voice actors in the same wide open section as the movie and tv folks, but and the comics guests in a narrow area adjacent to artist's alley and even then the latter never felt or looked overly crowded. The folks digging through the bins of the limited number of comics vendors tended to be older (as in mid-thirties to mid-fifties), and while there were younger people who were buying comics, but were either very focused on certain titles (The Flash, Disney books, etc) or trying to grab spec books. 

Now FanExpo is largely a pop cultural event and not a comic show, so I don't think the above should be extrapolated to mean anything about the health of the hobby as a whole. My major concern is that comic collecting is going to hit the same point it did in the nineties where people start to feel taken advantage of by gimmicks (endless reboots, crossovers and variants variants variants) and spec hype (a problem now exacerbated by youtube and instagram influencers) and quit the hobby. What would that mean for any of us as collectors is a good question, but less demand generally equals lower prices (yay!) but could also lead to less availability as fewer people make a living from or take an interest in selling (boo!). 

The health of things like manga and the youth oriented graphic novels that vastly outsell every single superhero book by a significant margin would indicate to me that there will always be an appetite for comics of some kind, but whether that translates to collecting as we understand it... who knows! 

That's a good point. I would argue too that the emergence of a lot of Youtube people in the hobby (many of whom seem to be in that 30-45 age range with a few younger and a few older) suggests to me the age of the hobby is ok, unlike something like stamps. The ebbs and flows in values will always occur and their attachment to films and such may adjust to a more reasonable amount (for exmaple seeing a modest 10-15% uptick in value as opposed to a wild 50-75% or more jump in value just because of a movie trailer).

[MatterEaterLad]

On 2/21/2024 at 10:32 AM, comicginger1789 said:

I can see possible comparisons between this and stamps but I just feel superheroes are much more relevant. Stamps are a tough sell on today's generation.

I am a high school teacher. I have comic related stuff in my classroom. Kids enjoy it because they know the characters from the movies and shows and such and I get a chance to pass along some knowledge about comics whenever asked. I feel I have intrigued a handful of kids in this hobby and while many of them seem to gravitate towards the Copper Age (most accessible "old" time period) I do feel that like myself, they will eventually work their way backwards into older comics. Or at least that is my wish.

It's definitely a clunky comparison since there aren't movies, action figures, video games, and cosplayers related to stamps (that I know of ). 

I love that kids in high school can appreciate comic stuff, especially since when I was in high school it was fairly uncool. I remember buying a Conan #1 in the 9th grade from a classmate and the transaction took place in the school bathroom (like a drug deal!) since the seller didn't want to be seen as comic nerd. 

I visit a lot of high schools as part of my job, and the vibe I always get is that geek culture is a everywhere and accepted, with kids relating to the movies far more than the source material. 

[Microchip]

On 2/22/2024 at 7:37 AM, MatterEaterLad said:

movies far more than the source material. 

Movies are a gateway drug 

In terms of American culture, and it's default impact on the global culture, comics are right up there with the biggest contributions in the modern landscape.

We have perennial characters heading towards 100 years of existence in Batman, and Superman, and now thanks to the movies Captain American has joined the list.    The first two completely embedded in multiple generations psyche as cultural characters, known and enjoyed.

The big element are conventions.  Going to any convention these days, they are predominantly filled with young people, interacting with comic related media in various forms.   Will a 100% of them turn into devout comic collectors, most certainly not, but will some of them,  absolutely.

 

 

[CGC Mike]

On 2/21/2024 at 12:38 PM, comicginger1789 said:

It would be great for someone somewhere to collect actual data from conventions and comic shops. What is the average age of today's collector? If it is somewhere between 30-40 I think that would bode well for the hobby as that would be the age range for people to have the right disposable income to spend well enough in this hobby.

We do have this thread.  You might have to do a little math due to the age of the thread.  But, it will give you an idea for this forum.

 

[Stefan_W]

On 2/21/2024 at 5:07 PM, Microchip said:

The big element are conventions.  Going to any convention these days, they are predominantly filled with young people, interacting with comic related media in various forms.   Will a 100% of them turn into devout comic collectors, most certainly not, but will some of them,  absolutely.

 

 

In my area conventions take a couple of different forms. There are some that encourage cosplay costumes, have speakers come in, and showcase a wide range of vendors some of whom sell comics. Those conventions are packed to the rafters, but the comic sellers complain about high table fees and having a hard time turned any profit at them despite selling a lot of comics. The crowds are big and definitely skew young

There are also comic-specific conventions that focus solely on a crowd that will show up and buy comic books. No frills, just people looking to buy and sell comic comics. This is where I set up tables a couple of times a year. The crowds are much smaller and mostly middle aged and up. 

Drawing a younger generation into comic collecting is tricky. My opinion is that we can't assume that youth will automatically want the same things as the older generation of comic collectors. The example I always use in these discussions is there is no reason why someone who got hooked into comics by watching Spider-Verse movies will love classic ASMs more than Miles Morales comics. But the market kind of craps on that sort of decision because the better investments are with older comics. 

My opinion is that we are definitely in for seismic shifts in the comic market as the older generation continues to move on and the younger crowd coming up wants different things. My suspicion is that big GA and SA keys will always be strong, but there will be a lot of volatility at the lower end of that market as fewer and fewer people care about filling out runs of whatever title from that era. 

Edited February 22 by Stefan_W

[Robot Man]

On 2/21/2024 at 8:09 PM, Stefan_W said:

In my area conventions take a couple of different forms. There are some that encourage cosplay costumes, have speakers come in, and showcase a wide range of vendors some of whom sell comics. Those conventions are packed to the rafters, but the comic sellers complain about high table fees and having a hard time turned any profit at them despite selling a lot of comics. The crowds are big and definitely skew young

There are also comic-specific conventions that focus solely on a crowd that will show up and buy comic books. No frills, just people looking to buy and sell comic comics. This is where I set up tables a couple of times a year. The crowds are much smaller and mostly middle aged and up. 

Drawing a younger generation into comic collecting is tricky. My opinion is that we can't assume that youth will automatically want the same things as the older generation of comic collectors. The example I always use in these discussions is there is no reason why someone who got hooked into comics by watching Spider-Verse movies will love classic ASMs more than Miles Morales comics. But the market kind of craps on that sort of decision because the better investments are with older comics. 

My opinion is that we are definitely in for seismic shifts in the comic market as the older generation continues to move on and the younger crowd coming up wants different things. My suspicion is that big GA and SA keys will always be strong, but there will be a lot of volatility at the lower end of that market as fewer and fewer people care about filling out runs of whatever title from that era. 

I would agree about your assessment on comic shows out here on the West Coast as well.

I just set up at CalCon a couple weeks ago. A vintage comic buying and selling show. The place was packed with serious comic buyers of all ages. Quite a few women as well. I sold countless GA books of all genres to eager buyers. Lots of younger buyers are discovering the older books. How cool they are and how hard to find. It’s not just the movie hype that is driving the market. 

[comicginger1789]

On 2/22/2024 at 10:48 AM, Robot Man said:

I would agree about your assessment on comic shows out here on the West Coast as well.

I just set up at CalCon a couple weeks ago. A vintage comic buying and selling show. The place was packed with serious comic buyers of all ages. Quite a few women as well. I sold countless GA books of all genres to eager buyers. Lots of younger buyers are discovering the older books. How cool they are and how hard to find. It’s not just the movie hype that is driving the market. 

See this makes me feel good about the hobby still. Some very very light data from this forum (and a thread where people shared their age...I only looked at responses that were recent). Average age here and on a golden age collector group was about the same at 47 years old. Again very small sample size and I expected such an average to be higher as an online forum and Facebook are not the platforms most younger collectors would be using. 

When I tune in to live sales on Instagram, WhatNot and some other platforms I see the ages more in the range of 25-45

Edited February 22 by comicginger1789

[buttock]

One thing you have to consider about the age of collectors is that it takes a certain income level to be able to buy vintage books with discretionary income.  Most people don't reach that income/stability until their mid-30s.  So not seeing a bunch of teenagers running around buying $3000 comics isn't surprising.  

[Robot Man]

On 2/22/2024 at 8:01 AM, comicginger1789 said:

See this makes me feel good about the hobby still. Some very very light data from this forum (and a thread where people shared their age...I only looked at responses that were recent). Average age here and on a golden age collector group was about the same at 47 years old. Again very small sample size and I expected such an average to be higher as an online forum and Facebook are not the platforms most younger collectors would be using. 

When I tune in to live sales on Instagram, WhatNot and some other platforms I see the ages more in the range of 25-45

Younger folks tend to have shorter attention spans than older folks. Everything is quicker. IG is a perfect place for them. Bang it and off to the next one. A place like this is more “conversational”.

When I spend money especially a large amount, I want as much info as possible. A quick, often bad, front cover photo and “make an offer” just doesn’t cut it for me. 

[Stefan_W]

On 2/22/2024 at 11:05 AM, buttock said:

One thing you have to consider about the age of collectors is that it takes a certain income level to be able to buy vintage books with discretionary income.  Most people don't reach that income/stability until their mid-30s.  So not seeing a bunch of teenagers running around buying $3000 comics isn't surprising.  

True, but most adults dont run around buying $3k comics either. That group is a small subset of comic collecting.