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Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit???
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Started by InfantTerrible,

7,110 posts in this topic

kav

kav

Posted
Posted
On 12/25/2021 at 9:15 PM, Comics4All said:

Wheatcakes never ease up amirite 

not until petey start eating then they ease up a bit.

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lou_fine

lou_fine

Posted
Posted

I imagine we are going to see continuing downward drift or easing on this nicely centered copy tomorrow as supply is definitely greater then demand, as compared to earlier in the year when this book in this grade was selling in the teens:  :(

omics.ha.com/itm/bronze-age-1970-1979-/special-marvel-edition-15-master-of-kung-fu-marvel-1973-cgc-nm-mt-98-white-pages/a/122152-17757.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515

lf?set=path%5B2%2F5%2F2%2F6%2F9%2F25269902%5D&call=url%5Bfile%3Aproduct.chain%5D

Then again, at a current bid of $6K or $7,200 including the BP juice, collectors really can't complain too much since this is already multiples of what this book was selling for just a couple of short years ago.  :applause:

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snitzer

snitzer

Posted
Posted
On 12/23/2021 at 7:22 AM, Old Fashion PB and J said:

Meaning they do not understand the cyclical nature of the hobby. Similar if you have only been watching stocks for 4 years you think the market just always goes up.

Not just the last four years, the stock market has done literally just that...it’s always gone up.

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Laszlo the Mudjar

Laszlo the Mudjar

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 12/27/2021 at 8:00 AM, snitzer said:

Not just the last four years, the stock market has done literally just that...it’s always gone up.

That is true.  However, there are HUGE caveats.  Had one bought at the peak in 1999, one did not start making money until 2013.  Similarly had one bought at the 1965 peak, one did not make money until 1982.  The same can be said of 1929 to 1955.  When you buy into a trend can make a world of difference. Prices could ease for a LONG time. And, then again, maybe not.  Who knows.  Buy what you like and can afford, and there won't be a problem.  Buy for an investment with money you can't afford to lose, and maybe not so much.

dow.jpg

Edited by Laszlo the Mudjar
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WolverineX

WolverineX

Posted
Posted
On 12/23/2021 at 5:36 PM, DC# said:

I finally finished my version of the "DOW 30" for comic books for those interested in a more aggregate look at the trends.    I am sure any statistician here can find the errors in the development my sample pool but it is what it is.    Here is the general breakdown:

  • 10 books each from Silver, Bronze, and Copper/Modern and 3 CGC grades per book.   So total view is across 90 graded books.
  • I tried to pick titles/issues at grades that had sufficient sales velocity - and picked books that have been consistent "key issues" over the years (no hot today - dead tomorrow).    Balance of big keys and every-day keys at a range of values.    So there is not an Avengers 1 or X-men 1 in 9.6 for example.   But for Modern/Copper included a lot of 9.8s since that is really where the market is.   
  • This is a quarterly snapshot (Jan, April, July, Oct) between 2016 and 2021 so it won't necessarily show the monthly peaks.   Took the average of all sales in the month of Jan/Apri/Jul/Oct - except in Modern where I took the average of the last 2 sales in that month (just too many damn copies sold per month and I ran out of steam).   If there was no sales in that month - I took the last sale regardless of what month it occurred.    

Here are the books/grades this tracks (apologies to Gold collectors)

Silver

  • Avengers 1 5.0/4.0/3.0
  • X-Men 1 4.5/4.0/2.5
  • Tales of Suspense 39  5.0/3.5/3/0
  • Fantastic Four 48  8.0/6.0/4.0
  • Batman 181 6.0/4.0/3.0
  • Daredevil 1. 6.0/5.0/3.5
  • Spider-man 50  8.0/6.0/4.0
  • Silver Surfer 1 8.0/6.0/4.0
  • Iron Man 1 8.0/6.0/4.0
  • Flash 139  7.0/6.0/5.0

Bronze

  • Hulk 181 9.2/8.0/6/0
  • Giant Size X-men 1 9.4/8.5/6.5
  • Marvel Spotlight 5. 8.5/7.5/6.5
  • Spider-man 129   8.5/7.5/6.5
  • Tomb of Dracula 10   9.2/8.0/6.5
  • House of Secrets 92.  8.5/7.0/4.0
  • DC Comics Presents 26.  9.8/9.6/9.2
  • Batman 232.  8.5/7.5/6.0
  • Iron Man 55.  9.4/8.5/7.5
  • Star Wars 1.  9.8/9.6/9.0

Copper/Modern

  • Spider-man 300.  9.8/9.4/9.0
  • Ultimate Fallout 4.  9.8/9.6/9.4
  • Batman Adventures 12  9.8/9.6/9.4
  • X-men 266. 9.8/9.4/9.2
  • Young Avengers 1.  9.8/9.6/9.4
  • New Mutants 98.   9.8/9.6/9.4
  • Swamp Thing 37. 9.8/9.6/9.4
  • Edge of Spider-verse 2.  9.8/9.6/9.4
  • Hulk 340.  9.8/9.6/9.4
  • Wolverine 1 (88).  9.8/9.6/9.4

 

Overall this analysis looks a lot like the performance chart of any single book you look at on GPA.    The January results will be an indicator of much of a correction the market started to show as of Oct.     The returns here have been very strong since 2016 with a bit of a pause in 2019.  Even if 2021 had been flat-ish it would have been a good 5 year run.  

1962752070_ScreenShot2021-12-23at2_09_55PM.thumb.png.5ecbd7386a1527385348f3f10a566637.png

1459397931_ScreenShot2021-12-23at2_10_27PM.png.813cd701beb1383237b27cdc873e35ae.png

 

 

This is amazing. Thank you for doing it. I was also would be interested in seeing the breakdown between DC versus Marvel ( if you ever decide to update ) since it seems that Marvel has been driving up most of the rise.

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buttock

buttock

Posted
Posted
On 12/26/2021 at 7:43 PM, Microchip said:

A year in the life of SS #3 9.6

A nice big peak, and an accompanying fall, but still finishing at 200% from where it started.

Dec 2020 $5,622

May 2021 $21,251

July 2021 $13,750

Dec 2021 $11,200

image.thumb.png.0c5323a2d2ce1cb70d0ce9d16488b0c1.png

This one got caught in the Wandavision speculation hype.  

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MAR1979

MAR1979

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 12/27/2021 at 11:30 AM, buttock said:

This one got caught in the Wandavision speculation hype.  

  

On 12/26/2021 at 9:43 PM, Microchip said:

A year in the life of SS #3 9.6

A nice big peak, and an accompanying fall, but still finishing at 200% from where it started.

Dec 2020 $5,622

May 2021 $21,251

July 2021 $13,750

Dec 2021 $11,200

image.thumb.png.0c5323a2d2ce1cb70d0ce9d16488b0c1.png

 

The more who get burned to the tune of a quick 10K loss, the more who are likley to exit the hobby.  Don't let the door hit you on the way applies :)

Conversely those who purchased at 5K may still be happy even if less so than in May.

 

Edited by MAR1979
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Hamlet

Hamlet

Posted
Posted
On 12/27/2021 at 7:34 AM, Laszlo the Mudjar said:

That is true.  However, there are HUGE caveats.  Had one bought at the peak in 1999, one did not start making money until 2013.  Similarly had one bought at the 1965 peak, one did not make money until 1982.  The same can be said of 1929 to 1955.  When you buy into a trend can make a world of difference. Prices could ease for a LONG time. And, then again, maybe not.  Who knows.  Buy what you like and can afford, and there won't be a problem.  Buy for an investment with money you can't afford to lose, and maybe not so much.

Yup.  People forget in bull markets how long and bad a bear market can get.  It is even worse than you state, because these numbers don’t take inflation into account.  The 1965 to 1982 trough was even worse than it looks because that was also a period of very high inflation. So it took seventeen years to get back to even and on top of that an investor would have lost 2/3 of their purchasing power to inflation.  Dividends would have helped some, but not enough to match that inflation.

It seems like we have to relearn this lesson every 20-30 years.

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Gregd

Gregd

Posted
Posted
For those that are optimists like me…
”The average length of a bear market is 289 days, or about 9.6 months. That's significantly shorter than the average length of a bull market, which is 973 days or 2.7 years.”
 
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