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Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit???
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Started by InfantTerrible,

7,105 posts in this topic

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DC#

DC#

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Posted

I finally finished my version of the "DOW 30" for comic books for those interested in a more aggregate look at the trends.    I am sure any statistician here can find the errors in the development my sample pool but it is what it is.    Here is the general breakdown:

  • 10 books each from Silver, Bronze, and Copper/Modern and 3 CGC grades per book.   So total view is across 90 graded books.
  • I tried to pick titles/issues at grades that had sufficient sales velocity - and picked books that have been consistent "key issues" over the years (no hot today - dead tomorrow).    Balance of big keys and every-day keys at a range of values.    So there is not an Avengers 1 or X-men 1 in 9.6 for example.   But for Modern/Copper included a lot of 9.8s since that is really where the market is.   
  • This is a quarterly snapshot (Jan, April, July, Oct) between 2016 and 2021 so it won't necessarily show the monthly peaks.   Took the average of all sales in the month of Jan/Apri/Jul/Oct - except in Modern where I took the average of the last 2 sales in that month (just too many damn copies sold per month and I ran out of steam).   If there was no sales in that month - I took the last sale regardless of what month it occurred.    

Here are the books/grades this tracks (apologies to Gold collectors)

Silver

  • Avengers 1 5.0/4.0/3.0
  • X-Men 1 4.5/4.0/2.5
  • Tales of Suspense 39  5.0/3.5/3/0
  • Fantastic Four 48  8.0/6.0/4.0
  • Batman 181 6.0/4.0/3.0
  • Daredevil 1. 6.0/5.0/3.5
  • Spider-man 50  8.0/6.0/4.0
  • Silver Surfer 1 8.0/6.0/4.0
  • Iron Man 1 8.0/6.0/4.0
  • Flash 139  7.0/6.0/5.0

Bronze

  • Hulk 181 9.2/8.0/6/0
  • Giant Size X-men 1 9.4/8.5/6.5
  • Marvel Spotlight 5. 8.5/7.5/6.5
  • Spider-man 129   8.5/7.5/6.5
  • Tomb of Dracula 10   9.2/8.0/6.5
  • House of Secrets 92.  8.5/7.0/4.0
  • DC Comics Presents 26.  9.8/9.6/9.2
  • Batman 232.  8.5/7.5/6.0
  • Iron Man 55.  9.4/8.5/7.5
  • Star Wars 1.  9.8/9.6/9.0

Copper/Modern

  • Spider-man 300.  9.8/9.4/9.0
  • Ultimate Fallout 4.  9.8/9.6/9.4
  • Batman Adventures 12  9.8/9.6/9.4
  • X-men 266. 9.8/9.4/9.2
  • Young Avengers 1.  9.8/9.6/9.4
  • New Mutants 98.   9.8/9.6/9.4
  • Swamp Thing 37. 9.8/9.6/9.4
  • Edge of Spider-verse 2.  9.8/9.6/9.4
  • Hulk 340.  9.8/9.6/9.4
  • Wolverine 1 (88).  9.8/9.6/9.4

 

Overall this analysis looks a lot like the performance chart of any single book you look at on GPA.    The January results will be an indicator of much of a correction the market started to show as of Oct.     The returns here have been very strong since 2016 with a bit of a pause in 2019.  Even if 2021 had been flat-ish it would have been a good 5 year run.  

1962752070_ScreenShot2021-12-23at2_09_55PM.thumb.png.5ecbd7386a1527385348f3f10a566637.png

1459397931_ScreenShot2021-12-23at2_10_27PM.png.813cd701beb1383237b27cdc873e35ae.png

 

 

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Tnexus

Tnexus

Posted
Posted
On 12/23/2021 at 2:36 PM, DC# said:

I finally finished my version of the "DOW 30" for comic books for those interested in a more aggregate look at the trends.    I am sure any statistician here can find the errors in the development my sample pool but it is what it is.    Here is the general breakdown:

  • 10 books each from Silver, Bronze, and Copper/Modern and 3 CGC grades per book.   So total view is across 90 graded books.
  • I tried to pick titles/issues at grades that had sufficient sales velocity - and picked books that have been consistent "key issues" over the years (no hot today - dead tomorrow).    Balance of big keys and every-day keys at a range of values.    So there is not an Avengers 1 or X-men 1 in 9.6 for example.   But for Modern/Copper included a lot of 9.8s since that is really where the market is.   
  • This is a quarterly snapshot (Jan, April, July, Oct) between 2016 and 2021 so it won't necessarily show the monthly peaks.   Took the average of all sales in the month of Jan/Apri/Jul/Oct - except in Modern where I took the average of the last 2 sales in that month (just too many damn copies sold per month and I ran out of steam).   If there was no sales in that month - I took the last sale regardless of what month it occurred.    

Here are the books/grades this tracks (apologies to Gold collectors)

Silver

  • Avengers 1 5.0/4.0/3.0
  • X-Men 1 4.5/4.0/2.5
  • Tales of Suspense 39  5.0/3.5/3/0
  • Fantastic Four 48  8.0/6.0/4.0
  • Batman 181 6.0/4.0/3.0
  • Daredevil 1. 6.0/5.0/3.5
  • Spider-man 50  8.0/6.0/4.0
  • Silver Surfer 1 8.0/6.0/4.0
  • Iron Man 1 8.0/6.0/4.0
  • Flash 139  7.0/6.0/5.0

Bronze

  • Hulk 181 9.2/8.0/6/0
  • Giant Size X-men 1 9.4/8.5/6.5
  • Marvel Spotlight 5. 8.5/7.5/6.5
  • Spider-man 129   8.5/7.5/6.5
  • Tomb of Dracula 10   9.2/8.0/6.5
  • House of Secrets 92.  8.5/7.0/4.0
  • DC Comics Presents 26.  9.8/9.6/9.2
  • Batman 232.  8.5/7.5/6.0
  • Iron Man 55.  9.4/8.5/7.5
  • Star Wars 1.  9.8/9.6/9.0

Copper/Modern

  • Spider-man 300.  9.8/9.4/9.0
  • Ultimate Fallout 4.  9.8/9.6/9.4
  • Batman Adventures 12  9.8/9.6/9.4
  • X-men 266. 9.8/9.4/9.2
  • Young Avengers 1.  9.8/9.6/9.4
  • New Mutants 98.   9.8/9.6/9.4
  • Swamp Thing 37. 9.8/9.6/9.4
  • Edge of Spider-verse 2.  9.8/9.6/9.4
  • Hulk 340.  9.8/9.6/9.4
  • Wolverine 1 (88).  9.8/9.6/9.4

 

Overall this analysis looks a lot like the performance chart of any single book you look at on GPA.    The January results will be an indicator of much of a correction the market started to show as of Oct.     The returns here have been very strong since 2016 with a bit of a pause in 2019.  Even if 2021 had been flat-ish it would have been a good 5 year run.  

1962752070_ScreenShot2021-12-23at2_09_55PM.thumb.png.5ecbd7386a1527385348f3f10a566637.png

1459397931_ScreenShot2021-12-23at2_10_27PM.png.813cd701beb1383237b27cdc873e35ae.png

 

 

Moral of the story, wait to sell keys until the month of April.

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zosocane

zosocane

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 12/23/2021 at 5:36 PM, DC# said:

I finally finished my version of the "DOW 30" for comic books for those interested in a more aggregate look at the trends.    I am sure any statistician here can find the errors in the development my sample pool but it is what it is.    Here is the general breakdown:

  • 10 books each from Silver, Bronze, and Copper/Modern and 3 CGC grades per book.   So total view is across 90 graded books.
  • I tried to pick titles/issues at grades that had sufficient sales velocity - and picked books that have been consistent "key issues" over the years (no hot today - dead tomorrow).    Balance of big keys and every-day keys at a range of values.    So there is not an Avengers 1 or X-men 1 in 9.6 for example.   But for Modern/Copper included a lot of 9.8s since that is really where the market is.   
  • This is a quarterly snapshot (Jan, April, July, Oct) between 2016 and 2021 so it won't necessarily show the monthly peaks.   Took the average of all sales in the month of Jan/Apri/Jul/Oct - except in Modern where I took the average of the last 2 sales in that month (just too many damn copies sold per month and I ran out of steam).   If there was no sales in that month - I took the last sale regardless of what month it occurred.    

Here are the books/grades this tracks (apologies to Gold collectors)

Silver

  • Avengers 1 5.0/4.0/3.0
  • X-Men 1 4.5/4.0/2.5
  • Tales of Suspense 39  5.0/3.5/3/0
  • Fantastic Four 48  8.0/6.0/4.0
  • Batman 181 6.0/4.0/3.0
  • Daredevil 1. 6.0/5.0/3.5
  • Spider-man 50  8.0/6.0/4.0
  • Silver Surfer 1 8.0/6.0/4.0
  • Iron Man 1 8.0/6.0/4.0
  • Flash 139  7.0/6.0/5.0

Bronze

  • Hulk 181 9.2/8.0/6/0
  • Giant Size X-men 1 9.4/8.5/6.5
  • Marvel Spotlight 5. 8.5/7.5/6.5
  • Spider-man 129   8.5/7.5/6.5
  • Tomb of Dracula 10   9.2/8.0/6.5
  • House of Secrets 92.  8.5/7.0/4.0
  • DC Comics Presents 26.  9.8/9.6/9.2
  • Batman 232.  8.5/7.5/6.0
  • Iron Man 55.  9.4/8.5/7.5
  • Star Wars 1.  9.8/9.6/9.0

Copper/Modern

  • Spider-man 300.  9.8/9.4/9.0
  • Ultimate Fallout 4.  9.8/9.6/9.4
  • Batman Adventures 12  9.8/9.6/9.4
  • X-men 266. 9.8/9.4/9.2
  • Young Avengers 1.  9.8/9.6/9.4
  • New Mutants 98.   9.8/9.6/9.4
  • Swamp Thing 37. 9.8/9.6/9.4
  • Edge of Spider-verse 2.  9.8/9.6/9.4
  • Hulk 340.  9.8/9.6/9.4
  • Wolverine 1 (88).  9.8/9.6/9.4

 

Overall this analysis looks a lot like the performance chart of any single book you look at on GPA.    The January results will be an indicator of much of a correction the market started to show as of Oct.     The returns here have been very strong since 2016 with a bit of a pause in 2019.  Even if 2021 had been flat-ish it would have been a good 5 year run.  

1962752070_ScreenShot2021-12-23at2_09_55PM.thumb.png.5ecbd7386a1527385348f3f10a566637.png

1459397931_ScreenShot2021-12-23at2_10_27PM.png.813cd701beb1383237b27cdc873e35ae.png

 

 

:golfclap:  Very helpful ‘big picture’ analysis.  

Edited by zosocane
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