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Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit???
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Started by InfantTerrible,

7,114 posts in this topic

lou_fine

lou_fine

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 12/27/2021 at 8:34 AM, MAR1979 said:

  The more who get burned to the tune of a quick 10K loss, the more who are likley to exit the hobby.  Don't let the door hit you on the way applies :)

Conversely those who purchased at 5K may still be happy even if less so than in May.

The way I see it is that we tend to focus way too much on the extreme high record setting sale price point which might often be only that one outlier sale, while the majority of the sales actually takes place at substantially lower price points.  hm

Perfect case in point being this Silver Surfer 3 as my bet is that there's probably only this one or two sales in the $20K price range and probably a small handful in the $10K+ range, with probably the majority actually taking place in the sub-$10K price range over the past year or so.  (shrug)

So, we might have only the one or two unhappy speculative purchasers who feels they got burned on the book, while a whole ton more including those long term collectors who brought way back in the day, still jumping for joy at these reduced higher prices. :banana:  :whee:

Edited by lou_fine
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DC#

DC#

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On 12/27/2021 at 9:42 AM, Wolverinex said:

This is amazing. Thank you for doing it. I was also would be interested in seeing the breakdown between DC versus Marvel ( if you ever decide to update ) since it seems that Marvel has been driving up most of the rise.

Here is a high-level recap:   the DC titles, which were only 7 out of the 30 selected titles, had a 2016 to 2021 CAGR of 21.2% (161% total increase) vs 33.0% (or 316% total increase) for the 23 Marvel titles.   The magic of compounding......

Still a nice return for DC all in all - I wouldn't kick it out of bed.    

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WolverineX

WolverineX

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On 12/27/2021 at 4:30 PM, DC# said:

Here is a high-level recap:   the DC titles, which were only 7 out of the 30 selected titles, had a 2016 to 2021 CAGR of 21.2% (161% total increase) vs 33.0% (or 316% total increase) for the 23 Marvel titles.   The magic of compounding......

Still a nice return for DC all in all - I wouldn't kick it out of bed.    

Very interesting. So not bad at all.  

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ADAMANTIUM

ADAMANTIUM

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 12/27/2021 at 5:50 PM, THE_BEYONDER said:

Purchased a slabbed NM 98 in an Indica induced stupor yesterday.  Just a heads up that the book will most likely crash now.:insane:

Is it a unslabbed comic, or is the "mystery" in a cgc case?

Edited by ADAMANTIUM
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onlyweaknesskryptonite

onlyweaknesskryptonite

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On 12/27/2021 at 5:50 PM, THE_BEYONDER said:

Purchased a slabbed NM 98 in an Indica induced stupor yesterday.  Just a heads up that the book will most likely crash now.:insane:

20211227_185128.jpg.ce019301a1d5fc1c447ceeb8cc3fe0dd.jpg

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ADAMANTIUM

ADAMANTIUM

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I went to buy my brother some incense as a late Christmas present today, today at the headship. Heard about the people hash routine in the morning. They were out of stock on one brand, they ordered more. This was after I showed up to a bookstore too early, waited till they opened, then the DVD was closed that early too.

This was all 10 am so the refreshing aroma that the headshop was, compared to all the other stores that weren't even open yet doh!

It was all veddy refreshing! 

Lol rantrant

Edited by ADAMANTIUM
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ADAMANTIUM

ADAMANTIUM

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On 12/27/2021 at 8:28 PM, StingerMcK said:

I've noticed some more cooling on TMNT. I have #1 5th printing saved as an eBay search. Raws have been selling for $100-$150. Last few weeks, several raws have sold for $30-$50.

I've noticed it a bit too with #2 2nd print even in 9.8. I even looked up albedo 3 today for relatively related material, and a bit of bupkiss

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Microchip

Microchip

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On 12/28/2021 at 3:30 AM, buttock said:
On 12/27/2021 at 1:43 PM, Microchip said:

A year in the life of SS #3 9.6

A nice big peak, and an accompanying fall, but still finishing at 200% from where it started.

Dec 2020 $5,622

May 2021 $21,251

July 2021 $13,750

Dec 2021 $11,200

image.thumb.png.0c5323a2d2ce1cb70d0ce9d16488b0c1.png

Expand  

This one got caught in the Wandavision speculation hype.  

If you wanted one at that time, that's what they cost.  If you had a crystal ball looking into the future, you could have held off.   I'm curious to see how 2022 goes.   

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Sweet Lou 14

Sweet Lou 14

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On 12/26/2021 at 9:43 PM, Microchip said:

A year in the life of SS #3 9.6

A nice big peak, and an accompanying fall, but still finishing at 200% from where it started.

Dec 2020 $5,622

May 2021 $21,251

July 2021 $13,750

Dec 2021 $11,200

image.thumb.png.0c5323a2d2ce1cb70d0ce9d16488b0c1.png

 

On 12/27/2021 at 11:34 AM, MAR1979 said:

  

 

The more who get burned to the tune of a quick 10K loss, the more who are likley to exit the hobby.  Don't let the door hit you on the way applies :)

Conversely those who purchased at 5K may still be happy even if less so than in May.

 

Hello, since it's getting some attention I figured I would raise my hand as the guy who dropped over $20K on that Silver Surfer #3 back in May.

I've been upgrading the Silver Surfer run from 9.4 to 9.6 WP, and #3 was one of the toughest in the run even before people started speculating wildly about Mephisto.  I knew I was buying in the midst of a run-up, but here's the thing -- I also knew that I had a 9.4 WP undercopy to sell.

I am a collector, not a speculator, by which I mean I buy to hold, not to flip.  Of course I would like to buy each book as low as I can and sell as high as I can, but I don't get too caught up in the economics of a specific purchase, I think about the overall "portfolio" and I can feel just fine with aggressive purchases if I like how the collection is performing in the bigger picture.

So, here's the full context (and the math) on my Silver Surfer #3 saga this year:

  • I bought my 9.4 WP copy (raw) for $240 back in 2003.  I had it pressed and graded in 2017, so all-in I was into the book for $306.40.
  • I then bid big on the 9.6 WP copy in May, and won it for $21,251.  I sure wish I'd won it for $15K or even $18K, but I was just happy to have the book.
  • I immediately listed my 9.4 WP copy for sale, and with a little patience I was able to sell it in August for $8,464 (net of fees).  That's nearly 27 times my original investment.

So the way I see it, I put up a total of $21,251 + 306.40 - $8,464 = $13,093.40 to own a 9.6 WP.  That's well within the range of where the market seems to be right now, plus I would point out that the comps listed above do not have white pages and that was a must-have for me.  Finally, I believe that it's quite likely this book will climb again in the future.  Mephisto will almost certainly have his day in the MCU eventually.  Overall I feel good about the investment.

While I wish it were possible to always nail the timing on the buy side and the sell side, the simple fact is I am buying books at such an aggressive clip that I can't get hung up on any one purchase, any more than a poker player can focus on a single hand when they're playing hundreds or thousands of them.  (For example, my Silver Surfer #4 9.6 WP cost me "only" $4,500 -- so again, considering the whole set I like where I sit.)

I hope this context is helpful for anyone who wants to understand how a collector like me thinks.

Edited by Sweet Lou 14
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