'Fantast Collection' Kick Starter 'Selling Superman' (#1 CGC 7.0 blue) documentary 2024 6 6

[action1kid]

On 7/4/2023 at 9:26 PM, tth2 said:

Seriously, it's 2023.  Those guys came in during 2021 and 2022, got burned as new money always does in this hobby, and have already beat a hasty retreat. 

I’ll bet a Techie bought the Supes 1 for 5 mill. And the last few Actions

[LearnedHand]

On 6/12/2023 at 11:39 AM, tth2 said:

What grade, though?  Mulch-quality GA books, I can believe are still out there.  High grade, not so much.

Don’t disagree, as ends of any spectrum are going to be relatively less common than the 68.5 percent of the bell curve ... but I do think some people take this notion to the extreme.  Putting aside storage conditions that can certainly severely impact things like PQ, however, some people seem to think that the passage of time alone means the collection will generally be in lower grade. Not sure that makes sense... 
 

Continuing to play the speculation game, it’s curious that some boardies state, declaratively, that books such as Superman #1 are rare.  This speculation is usually based on the CGC census.  Looking at it from a different perspective, my understanding is this particular book had a +1M print run, three runs, plus mail-in opportunities for 1939 NY worlds fair attendees to receive a copy.  Even under the conservative assumption that only 1m copied were printed, if even 1% of those copies survived, there would be 10,000 surviving copies. If even 0.1% of copies survived, that’s still 1,000 copies. Definitely a “rare” book?  Maybe...
 

[action1kid]

On 7/5/2023 at 11:23 AM, LearnedHand said:

Don’t disagree, as ends of any spectrum are going to be relatively less common than the 68.5 percent of the bell curve ... but I do think some people take this notion to the extreme.  Putting aside storage conditions that can certainly severely impact things like PQ, however, some people seem to think that the passage of time alone means the collection will generally be in lower grade. Not sure that makes sense... 
 

Continuing to play the speculation game, it’s curious that some boardies state, declaratively, that books such as Superman #1 are rare.  This speculation is usually based on the CGC census.  Looking at it from a different perspective, my understanding is this particular book had a +1M print run, three runs, plus mail-in opportunities for 1939 NY worlds fair attendees to receive a copy.  Even under the conservative assumption that only 1m copied were printed, if even 1% of those copies survived, there would be 10,000 surviving copies. If even 0.1% of copies survived, that’s still 1,000 copies. Definitely a “rare” book?  Maybe...
 

The usual rebuttal on that is that it’s rare in a higher grade unrestored. I think 6.0 and above  & unrestored is applicable to that statement. My 10 cents.

[Bronty]

I think when people talk about it being rare its in the context of relative rarity for GA keys.    I don't think there is any question that's more rare than Batman 1, Cap 1, and many other significant GA books. 

Whether it is rare in the absolute, well, that's something we can parse from here to infinity as it depends on our definition of 'rare' and our guess as to the existing number of copies.

[Dark Knight]

With so much Superman 1 copies up for auction/sale the past 2-3 years, it seems that the number of copies sold were more than a Bat 1 or Cap 1. 

After seeing copy upon copy in practically every event/main auction, this book doesn't seem so "rare" and has definitely changed my perspective of this book in terms of rarity. 

[Silver Surfer]

I doubt there are 1000 copies floating around. If so we would have seen a couple hundred of them up for auction by now because there is just too much money on the table for most people to ignore. 

[Bronty]

On 7/5/2023 at 1:49 PM, Silver Surfer said:

I doubt there are 1000 copies floating around. If so we would have seen a couple hundred of them up for auction by now because there is just too much money on the table for most people to ignore. 

Agree.   Hard to buy; harder to hold. 

[fishbone]

On 7/5/2023 at 1:49 PM, Silver Surfer said:

I doubt there are 1000 copies floating around. If so we would have seen a couple hundred of them up for auction by now because there is just too much money on the table for most people to ignore. 

I'd guess maybe 1/2 of that ---- 500ish

[Gotham Kid]

On 7/5/2023 at 6:22 PM, Dark Knight said:

With so much Superman 1 copies up for auction/sale the past 2-3 years, it seems that the number of copies sold were more than a Bat 1 or Cap 1. 

After seeing copy upon copy in practically every event/main auction, this book doesn't seem so "rare" and has definitely changed my perspective of this book in terms of rarity. 

one more

[Gotham Kid]

On 7/5/2023 at 8:48 PM, fishbone said:

I'd guess maybe 1/2 of that ---- 500ish

also agree with this assessment

[Gotham Kid]

also, was it not the Mile High 8.0 copy that sold for 5Mil ?

As per CGC article highlighting the sale

There is an 8.5

Edited July 5, 2023 by Gotham Kid

[october]

On 7/5/2023 at 12:22 PM, Dark Knight said:

With so much Superman 1 copies up for auction/sale the past 2-3 years, it seems that the number of copies sold were more than a Bat 1 or Cap 1. 

After seeing copy upon copy in practically every event/main auction, this book doesn't seem so "rare" and has definitely changed my perspective of this book in terms of rarity. 

Sometimes scarce books go through periods of relative plenty, when copies are available in seemingly every auction. Marvel 1 was like this years ago, multiple copies changed hands in a short period, copies were repeatedly sold/resold, etc. That book was "common"....until it wasn't. Books eventually find long term homes and disappear for decades and after awhile those "common" issues aren't so common anymore. 

[lou_fine]

On 7/5/2023 at 1:08 PM, Gotham Kid said:

also, was it not the Mile High 8.0 copy that sold for 5Mil ?

As per CGC article highlighting the sale

There is an 8.5

Yes, although it was sold in January of 2022 for $5.3M when it was tied for the highest graded copy at CGC 8.0 with a total of two copies, by the week of January 18th of 2022, the CGC Cenus Population report had already changed to one single highest graded copy at CGC 8.5 and one left behind in the dust at only CGC 8.0:  

http://www.cgcdata.com/cgc/search/comicid/1996

Isn't this about the spot where somebody like @tth2 chimes in and states how much he REALLY Really loves this hobby here.  

Edited July 5, 2023 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

On 7/5/2023 at 12:29 AM, action1kid said:

On 7/4/2023 at 6:26 PM, tth2 said:

Seriously, it's 2023.  Those guys came in during 2021 and 2022, got burned as new money always does in this hobby, and have already beat a hasty retreat. 

I’ll bet a Techie bought the Supes 1 for 5 mill. And the last few Actions

A better bet is that it was a Techie or a sports card newbie who had brought the CGC 7.0 copy of Supes 1 from CC for just over $2.6M back in December of 2021 and then lost a cool million on the book as it was sold for only $1.62M last month at Goldin.      

Love the way that CGC keeps promoting this $1.62M sales on their Main Page, but fails to mention that it's most likely the first record setting 7-figure  million dollar loss for a CGC graded book.  

Edited July 5, 2023 by lou_fine

[tth2]

On 7/5/2023 at 11:23 PM, LearnedHand said:

Don’t disagree, as ends of any spectrum are going to be relatively less common than the 68.5 percent of the bell curve ... but I do think some people take this notion to the extreme.  Putting aside storage conditions that can certainly severely impact things like PQ, however, some people seem to think that the passage of time alone means the collection will generally be in lower grade. Not sure that makes sense... 
 

Continuing to play the speculation game, it’s curious that some boardies state, declaratively, that books such as Superman #1 are rare.  This speculation is usually based on the CGC census.  Looking at it from a different perspective, my understanding is this particular book had a +1M print run, three runs, plus mail-in opportunities for 1939 NY worlds fair attendees to receive a copy.  Even under the conservative assumption that only 1m copied were printed, if even 1% of those copies survived, there would be 10,000 surviving copies. If even 0.1% of copies survived, that’s still 1,000 copies. Definitely a “rare” book?  Maybe...
 

I think Ian Levine's quest provided some good insights into what's really rare, if grade is not a priority.  What we saw there is that there is virtually nothing amongst the mainstream titles that is truly rare.  All of his biggest challenges came with really early pre-superhero issues and obscure titles that were probably never printed or purchased in large numbers.

Edited July 7, 2023 by tth2
edited to add "pre-superhero"

[woowoo]

On 7/6/2023 at 6:59 AM, tth2 said:

I think Ian Levine's quest provided some good insights into what's really rare, if grade is not a priority.  What we saw there is that there is virtually nothing amongst the mainstream titles that is truly rare.  All of his biggest challenges came with really early issues and obscure titles that were probably never printed or purchased in large numbers.

Talking to Ian on the phone Detective 3 and New Aventure 26 was among the last 2 he needed to compete his collection. I sold him my 3 so all he had left was this rare book.

[Dark Knight]

On 7/5/2023 at 1:33 PM, october said:

On 7/5/2023 at 10:22 AM, Dark Knight said:

With so much Superman 1 copies up for auction/sale the past 2-3 years, it seems that the number of copies sold were more than a Bat 1 or Cap 1. 

After seeing copy upon copy in practically every event/main auction, this book doesn't seem so "rare" and has definitely changed my perspective of this book in terms of rarity. 

Expand  

Sometimes scarce books go through periods of relative plenty, when copies are available in seemingly every auction. Marvel 1 was like this years ago, multiple copies changed hands in a short period, copies were repeatedly sold/resold, etc. That book was "common"....until it wasn't. Books eventually find long term homes and disappear for decades and after awhile those "common" issues aren't so common anymore

You are absolutely correct that some books come in cycles. I made a post about it a couple years ago I believe also about the Marvel 1 which I counted in the Heritage archives and put out some data on how many copies sold since 2000s. And the cycle was there where during certain period of time, we would see 2-3 copies for sale for a few years and then just 1 copy or less thereafter on average.

So we might be seeing this same effect with Supes #1. Again these past few years has been the most amount of copies I've seen this book sell. Hopefully a good majority of the ones that sold land in good home and longer hold times.

[tth2]

On 7/6/2023 at 11:20 PM, woowoo said:

Talking to Ian on the phone Detective 3 and New Aventure 26 was among the last 2 he needed to compete his collection. I sold him my 3 so all he had left was this rare book.

Weren't there a few other issues from obscure titles?  The name "Scribbly" comes to mind.

Anyways, what was notable to me at the time was that finding issues from the superhero titles was no challenge for him at all, except cost.

[Silver Surfer]

On 7/6/2023 at 9:36 PM, tth2 said:

Weren't there a few other issues from obscure titles?  The name "Scribbly" comes to mind.

Anyways, what was notable to me at the time was that finding issues from the superhero titles was no challenge for him at all, except cost.

Buzz #70 or something that sounds like that?

[woowoo]

On 7/6/2023 at 9:36 PM, tth2 said:

Weren't there a few other issues from obscure titles?  The name "Scribbly" comes to mind.

Anyways, what was notable to me at the time was that finding issues from the superhero titles was no challenge for him at all, except cost.

No, he had them all from our talks. The only book that was still up in the air was his Matt Nelson made Double Action 1 since than there was no copy that came up till later. I don't even know if that woman Cristine Farrell has a copy. I will get ahold of Ian today and find out if Scribbly was ever gotten.

Edited July 7, 2023 by woowoo