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STAR WARS #1
0

Started by Mr 9.8,

967 posts in this topic

Mr 9.8

Mr 9.8

Posted
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Posted

 

$2,500 :o

 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Star-Wars-1-CGC-9-8-NM-MT-Marvel-7-77-White-Pages-First-Print-/171685549762?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item27f94196c2

 

Of course that's a BIN price, but I am curious to see if the demand is there yet for this book.

I'm betting he's more likely to sell it under the make an offer banner.

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canickus

canickus

Posted
Posted
All that and not one mention of the $17K asking price?

 

meh

 

 

 

-slym

What? Think it's a little on the low side? :insane:

 

:makepoint::slapfight:

 

It the two books were your books, what would you list them at?

 

GPA shows a sale of a 9.4 price variant in 2013 for $15,535. Apparently it has been cracked out as the cert number 0098041001 in new longer in the census. Because this book has been a tough book for a long time, the census overstates the population of high-grade books because of the crack-outs and resubs.

GPA shows the most recent sale of a 9.4 price variant in December of 2014 for $13,500.

 

The last three sales of a 9.8 regular issue are $1704, $1575, $1875, and of course the current auction which sits at $1825.

 

If I average the two variant issue sales and add the current market prices for the regular issues, I get $16,500. Seems reasonably fair to me.

 

If I take the high price on the variant, the lot is a bargain, the books look good for the grade.

 

Your mileage may vary. I don't know where the 9.8 regular issues are going to settle, but I don't think that the price variant issues will get any easier. GPA reports 8 sales of graded 9.4s in thirteen years.

 

2c

 

 

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r100comics

r100comics

Posted
Posted

 

One sold at $1,699. Would have had to sell for almost $1,900 on Ebay to clear that.

 

A 9.6 also sold for $575 in Dale's thread.

 

"Hot" books don't tend to do as well here as on Ebay, so it looks like there's some depth to the interest on this book.

 

 

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slym2none

slym2none

Posted
Posted

 

GPA shows a sale of a 9.4 price variant in 2013 for $15,535. Apparently it has been cracked out as the cert number 0098041001 in new longer in the census. Because this book has been a tough book for a long time, the census overstates the population of high-grade books because of the crack-outs and resubs.

GPA shows the most recent sale of a 9.4 price variant in December of 2014 for $13,500.

 

:o

 

Holy krap, really???

 

My bad, I thought someone was fishing for a sucker with that price...

 

:eek:

 

 

 

-slym

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CrocHntr

CrocHntr

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

GPA shows a sale of a 9.4 price variant in 2013 for $15,535. Apparently it has been cracked out as the cert number 0098041001 in new longer in the census. Because this book has been a tough book for a long time, the census overstates the population of high-grade books because of the crack-outs and resubs.

GPA shows the most recent sale of a 9.4 price variant in December of 2014 for $13,500.

 

:o

 

Holy krap, really???

 

My bad, I thought someone was fishing for a sucker with that price...

 

:eek:

 

 

 

-slym

 

There's a 9.4 35c variant in the latest Heritage Auction, so it will be interesting to see where that lands. Currently at $9,000 ($10,755 with BP) with a couple of days to go. Looks like the December sale may be about right.

Edited by CrocHntr
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Prince Namor

Prince Namor

Posted
Posted
Well, it's been hitting these crazy prices for a while now...

 

Great time to be a seller, but I am sure as heck not buying.

 

I have no idea whether these prices are here to stay or not, honestly.

Not in this market.

They will be a good blue chip now.

Star Wars was the most popular comic book of the 1970s.

So many people were introduced to comics because of Star Wars.

Star Wars kept Marvel in business.

Star Wars comic saved Marvel.

 

Leave it to Roy Thomas to add a little common sense to the over the top exaggeration: “Marvel benefitted tremendously,” Thomas says. “At that time, comics were having problems because newsstands and mom and pop stores were drying up. I don’t know if you could call Star Wars the comic that saved Marvel, but it certainly came along at a time when it made a big difference.”

 

There aren't a lot of numbers for publisher's during that time, but Amazing Spider-man went from 273,000 in 1975 total paid circulation to 281,000 in 1977, a small dip in 1978 to 258,000 (no numbers in 1979) to 296,000 in 1980. Similar type of deal with other Marvel Comics during that period.

 

I think saying Star Wars kept Marvel in business is an extreme over statement.

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Jaydogrules

Jaydogrules

Posted
Posted
Well, it's been hitting these crazy prices for a while now...

 

Great time to be a seller, but I am sure as heck not buying.

 

I have no idea whether these prices are here to stay or not, honestly.

Not in this market.

They will be a good blue chip now.

Star Wars was the most popular comic book of the 1970s.

So many people were introduced to comics because of Star Wars.

Star Wars kept Marvel in business.

Star Wars comic saved Marvel.

 

Leave it to Roy Thomas to add a little common sense to the over the top exaggeration: “Marvel benefitted tremendously,” Thomas says. “At that time, comics were having problems because newsstands and mom and pop stores were drying up. I don’t know if you could call Star Wars the comic that saved Marvel, but it certainly came along at a time when it made a big difference.”

 

There aren't a lot of numbers for publisher's during that time, but Amazing Spider-man went from 273,000 in 1975 total paid circulation to 281,000 in 1977, a small dip in 1978 to 258,000 (no numbers in 1979) to 296,000 in 1980. Similar type of deal with other Marvel Comics during that period.

 

I think saying Star Wars kept Marvel in business is an extreme over statement.

 

+1

 

To all of this. And it also underscores how utterly common the book really is. This book and a few others in the copper/modern age are on very serious "bubble watch" right now.

 

-J.

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Broke as a Joke

Broke as a Joke

Posted
Posted
Well, it's been hitting these crazy prices for a while now...

 

Great time to be a seller, but I am sure as heck not buying.

 

I have no idea whether these prices are here to stay or not, honestly.

Not in this market.

They will be a good blue chip now.

Star Wars was the most popular comic book of the 1970s.

So many people were introduced to comics because of Star Wars.

Star Wars kept Marvel in business.

Star Wars comic saved Marvel.

 

Leave it to Roy Thomas to add a little common sense to the over the top exaggeration: “Marvel benefitted tremendously,” Thomas says. “At that time, comics were having problems because newsstands and mom and pop stores were drying up. I don’t know if you could call Star Wars the comic that saved Marvel, but it certainly came along at a time when it made a big difference.”

 

There aren't a lot of numbers for publisher's during that time, but Amazing Spider-man went from 273,000 in 1975 total paid circulation to 281,000 in 1977, a small dip in 1978 to 258,000 (no numbers in 1979) to 296,000 in 1980. Similar type of deal with other Marvel Comics during that period.

 

I think saying Star Wars kept Marvel in business is an extreme over statement.

 

+1

 

To all of this. And it also underscores how utterly common the book really is. This book and a few others in the copper/modern age are on very serious "bubble watch" right now.

 

-J.

 

I have been patiently waiting for one of your "shilled auctions" reports for Star Wars #1. :popcorn:

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Jaydogrules

Jaydogrules

Posted
Posted
Well, it's been hitting these crazy prices for a while now...

 

Great time to be a seller, but I am sure as heck not buying.

 

I have no idea whether these prices are here to stay or not, honestly.

Not in this market.

They will be a good blue chip now.

Star Wars was the most popular comic book of the 1970s.

So many people were introduced to comics because of Star Wars.

Star Wars kept Marvel in business.

Star Wars comic saved Marvel.

 

Leave it to Roy Thomas to add a little common sense to the over the top exaggeration: “Marvel benefitted tremendously,” Thomas says. “At that time, comics were having problems because newsstands and mom and pop stores were drying up. I don’t know if you could call Star Wars the comic that saved Marvel, but it certainly came along at a time when it made a big difference.”

 

There aren't a lot of numbers for publisher's during that time, but Amazing Spider-man went from 273,000 in 1975 total paid circulation to 281,000 in 1977, a small dip in 1978 to 258,000 (no numbers in 1979) to 296,000 in 1980. Similar type of deal with other Marvel Comics during that period.

 

I think saying Star Wars kept Marvel in business is an extreme over statement.

 

+1

 

To all of this. And it also underscores how utterly common the book really is. This book and a few others in the copper/modern age are on very serious "bubble watch" right now.

 

-J.

 

I have been patiently waiting for one of your "shilled auctions" reports for Star Wars #1. :popcorn:

 

hm;)

 

-J.

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canickus

canickus

Posted
Posted

 

GPA shows a sale of a 9.4 price variant in 2013 for $15,535. Apparently it has been cracked out as the cert number 0098041001 in new longer in the census. Because this book has been a tough book for a long time, the census overstates the population of high-grade books because of the crack-outs and resubs.

GPA shows the most recent sale of a 9.4 price variant in December of 2014 for $13,500.

 

:o

 

Holy krap, really???

 

My bad, I thought someone was fishing for a sucker with that price...

 

:eek:

 

 

 

-slym

 

There's a 9.4 35c variant in the latest Heritage Auction, so it will be interesting to see where that lands. Currently at $9,000 ($10,755 with BP) with a couple of days to go. Looks like the December sale may be about right.

 

The bidding is now up to $11,000 ($13,145) with the buyers premium. Also, I just noticed that the bid increment is $1000, $12000 ($14340). Seems like a pretty steep bid increment, to me. Has it always been this way at Heritage?

 

I just looked it up and the bid increment would be $250 on Comiclink and $100 on eBay.

 

 

 

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r100comics

r100comics

Posted
Posted
Well, it's been hitting these crazy prices for a while now...

 

Great time to be a seller, but I am sure as heck not buying.

 

I have no idea whether these prices are here to stay or not, honestly.

Not in this market.

They will be a good blue chip now.

Star Wars was the most popular comic book of the 1970s.

So many people were introduced to comics because of Star Wars.

Star Wars kept Marvel in business.

Star Wars comic saved Marvel.

 

Leave it to Roy Thomas to add a little common sense to the over the top exaggeration: “Marvel benefitted tremendously,” Thomas says. “At that time, comics were having problems because newsstands and mom and pop stores were drying up. I don’t know if you could call Star Wars the comic that saved Marvel, but it certainly came along at a time when it made a big difference.”

 

There aren't a lot of numbers for publisher's during that time, but Amazing Spider-man went from 273,000 in 1975 total paid circulation to 281,000 in 1977, a small dip in 1978 to 258,000 (no numbers in 1979) to 296,000 in 1980. Similar type of deal with other Marvel Comics during that period.

 

I think saying Star Wars kept Marvel in business is an extreme over statement.

 

+1

 

To all of this. And it also underscores how utterly common the book really is. This book and a few others in the copper/modern age are on very serious "bubble watch" right now.

 

-J.

 

I disagree on this one.

 

The ebay auctions don't look shilled, and when a book is also selling for higher prices (net) on the boards than on Ebay that's a pretty good sign.

 

 

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vint43

vint43

Posted
Posted (edited)
Well, it's been hitting these crazy prices for a while now...

 

Great time to be a seller, but I am sure as heck not buying.

 

I have no idea whether these prices are here to stay or not, honestly.

Not in this market.

They will be a good blue chip now.

Star Wars was the most popular comic book of the 1970s.

So many people were introduced to comics because of Star Wars.

Star Wars kept Marvel in business.

Star Wars comic saved Marvel.

 

Leave it to Roy Thomas to add a little common sense to the over the top exaggeration: “Marvel benefitted tremendously,” Thomas says. “At that time, comics were having problems because newsstands and mom and pop stores were drying up. I don’t know if you could call Star Wars the comic that saved Marvel, but it certainly came along at a time when it made a big difference.”

 

There aren't a lot of numbers for publisher's during that time, but Amazing Spider-man went from 273,000 in 1975 total paid circulation to 281,000 in 1977, a small dip in 1978 to 258,000 (no numbers in 1979) to 296,000 in 1980. Similar type of deal with other Marvel Comics during that period.

 

I think saying Star Wars kept Marvel in business is an extreme over statement.

 

+1

 

To all of this. And it also underscores how utterly common the book really is. This book and a few others in the copper/modern age are on very serious "bubble watch" right now.

 

-J.

 

Predicting the price trend of a comic would appear to be very tricky stuff.

 

1- How many 9.8 copies of the title exist in raw form that will be graded?

 

First basic question of supply cannot be answered. We know current census but we cannot predict the ultimate supply by that alone. We can only guess. Frankly, the board cannot even agree on the initial print run. A very carefully written book about Star Wars claims 100,000 copies for the initial run because that was the number Marvel was allowed to print "royalty free" before the movie. Others have disagreed and claimed Marvel printed more in initial prints. However, it was the re-prints that took it over 1M and they have nothing to do with this supply question.

 

2- How many people will still desire to own the book at price X under Disney ownership with planned movies, park attractions, new comic releases, TV shows, etc over an unknown period of time (after all, Disney could keep this going for 10 years or 50+ years)?

 

Second basic question of demand cannot be answered. We can only guess.

 

3- How many people will decide to sell their book at price X simply because it is now price X?

 

Third basic supply question cannot be answered. It comes down to who eventually owns the supply of books. If it is hard core collectors that truly love the series and/or movies, they may not sell even at high prices. If it is a bunch of speculators they might sell quickly at even lower prices. We can only guess on the number of current speculators holding the book. However, over time, as prices go up, it eventually trend towards collectors owning the book and that will actually restrict supply.

 

So, with all these guesses. Some say "it is a bubble" and some day "it is only going up". The one thing they have in common is they are both guessing.

Edited by vint43
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Jaydogrules

Jaydogrules

Posted
Posted

This book is form the late Bronze Age, so we already know it isn't the least bit "rare" in any grade. Secondly, it was printed as a "collector's item", souvenir book for a movie that was immediately popular. So we know that the books has been saved/hoarded in large numbers over the years. SW 1 is following the identical trend of essentially every other common book that suddenly experiences an inexplicable and unwarranted rise in value, as well as the accompanying irrational exuberance/explanations from fans/dealers in an attempt to reason/justify why/how something that has been a known "collector's item" for nearly 40 years should plausibly triple in "value" in a seven week period.

 

There is no explanation.

 

Actually, yes there is.

 

Wait for it........

 

SHILLING!! lol

 

And here we go....

 

It usually starts with couple exorbitantly high "buy-it-nows" being popped on ebay to get the ball rolling:

 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/STAR-WARS-1-CGC-9-8-WHITE-PAGES-MARVEL-1977-/151563634354?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item2349e586b2

 

Then the fun begins:

 

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=171655306446&showauto=true

 

You'll notice that in the above auction that two bidders, e**r (549) and e**3 (229) are responsible for running up the bid to well over $1400, which at the time was $300 more than that previous "buy-it-now" that shattered the previous GPA high just a week earlier.

 

Then four days later this auction happened:

 

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=151577356284&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2565

 

Notice the same two bidders again running up the auction, e**r (549) and e**3 (229). Except congrats to our friend e**3 who looks like he won this one for a new GPA shattering $1875. :applause:

 

By now the damage has been done to GPA and the market believes that this books is suddenly now "worth" $1800+.

 

Which now takes us to this still ongoing auction:

 

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=231479894655&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2565

 

Where our friends e**r* (549) and e**3 (229) are this time the only two participants. Oh, and lookie-here, it looks like e**r (229) is on track again to pay a record shattering price for an SW #1, 9.8 for the second time in two weeks. This guy must really be a fan. (thumbs u

 

The problem with shilling, as I have said before and it bears repeating, is not only that it artificially drives up the price for legitimate buyers, but it also creates a false demand for a book, which in turn can cause panic buying amongst bandwagon collectors. This however can only sustain "value" on a book in the short term. This is what we are seeing now. From my cursory analysis of the above auctions, I see extreme anomalies in the bidding and pricing on this book, that certainly warrant it a "buyer beware".

 

-J.

 

 

 

 

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