STAR WARS #1 0

[canickus]

This thread completely delivers. It's so easy to tell who owns a SW 1 9.8 and who doesn't based on what they post. Great stuff here.

 

 

 

I think the strong reaction is probably due JDOGs use of the term "shillers".

 

Who knows if the market for these books is going to be up or down? I don't. As another poster mentioned, there are many factors that come determine market prices and trends. I do think that interest has been rekindled with the movie announcements.

 

JDOG points out that two bidders bid on the recent ebay auctions. Interesting research, but he runs off the rail when he says

 

"without any bids from regular bidders" Can you be MORE regular than when you bid on every auction.

 

"this guy and his friend" There is no indication that the two bidders are friends. As a matter of fact, guys who always outbid me weren't on my good friend list.

 

"phony "buyers"" A buyer that bids on a book and pays for it isn't phony.

 

"sketchy ebay sales" The sales look legit to me, validated by Gregreece's sales.

 

"obviously conspiring with each other" Again, no evidence

 

"SHILLING!!" This is not a word to throw around for a legit auction or sale. In most cases shilling is illegal and implies a conspiracy between a seller and a bidder to drive up the price. Since this isn't what is happening here, the term shouldn't be used. Collector, Speculator, Investor, Hoarder, Genius, insufficiently_thoughtful_person, Fanboy are all terms that could be used for the Buyer, but Shiller is not one that should be used.

 

JDOG may not like the fact that book has recently risen in value. I wish I had loaded up a couple of years ago. He may be right that the price may drop. He may also be wrong.

 

 

Apart from the movie hype, he might consider a couple of additional reasons why JDOG may be wrong about the long-term outlook for this book.

 

There are around 300 9.8 certified copies by CGC. There are almost that many competitive registry sets. Collectors that register their books in the registry are a very small subset of collectors. Demand for this book? Of course.

 

Each transaction requires a buyer and a seller. High prices will normally chase out more books, if they are available. But currently, if we generously say the market is $2000 per certified 9.8 book, and there are 300 of them, the total market value of the book is $600,000. Like most markets, most of the books are not currently for sale, so the market price per book is set by the prices agreed upon by the current buyers and sellers. You have some extra cash, maybe you want to build a position in Star Wars 1s. You wouldn't have to be Warren Buffett to do it, and there have certainly been worse investment ideas.

 

There is currently a Signature Series book with a $3500 bid on it. If I think I can buy nice 9.8 copies, get them signed and sell them for more, I might take the chance.

 

 

 

[Prince Namor]

This thread completely delivers. It's so easy to tell who owns a SW 1 9.8 and who doesn't based on what they post. Great stuff here.

 

Sorry, you're wrong. I don't own one.

[Jaydogrules]

This thread completely delivers. It's so easy to tell who owns a SW 1 9.8 and who doesn't based on what they post. Great stuff here.

 

 

 

I think the strong reaction is probably due JDOGs use of the term "shillers".

 

Who knows if the market for these books is going to be up or down? I don't. As another poster mentioned, there are many factors that come determine market prices and trends. I do think that interest has been rekindled with the movie announcements.

 

JDOG points out that two bidders bid on the recent ebay auctions. Interesting research, but he runs off the rail when he says

 

"without any bids from regular bidders" Can you be MORE regular than when you bid on every auction.

 

"this guy and his friend" There is no indication that the two bidders are friends. As a matter of fact, guys who always outbid me weren't on my good friend list.

 

"phony "buyers"" A buyer that bids on a book and pays for it isn't phony.

 

"sketchy ebay sales" The sales look legit to me, validated by Gregreece's sales.

 

"obviously conspiring with each other" Again, no evidence

 

"SHILLING!!" This is not a word to throw around for a legit auction or sale. In most cases shilling is illegal and implies a conspiracy between a seller and a bidder to drive up the price. Since this isn't what is happening here, the term shouldn't be used. Collector, Speculator, Investor, Hoarder, Genius, insufficiently_thoughtful_person, Fanboy are all terms that could be used for the Buyer, but Shiller is not one that should be used.

 

JDOG may not like the fact that book has recently risen in value. I wish I had loaded up a couple of years ago. He may be right that the price may drop. He may also be wrong.

 

 

Apart from the movie hype, he might consider a couple of additional reasons why JDOG may be wrong about the long-term outlook for this book.

 

There are around 300 9.8 certified copies by CGC. There are almost that many competitive registry sets. Collectors that register their books in the registry are a very small subset of collectors. Demand for this book? Of course.

 

Each transaction requires a buyer and a seller. High prices will normally chase out more books, if they are available. But currently, if we generously say the market is $2000 per certified 9.8 book, and there are 300 of them, the total market value of the book is $600,000. Like most markets, most of the books are not currently for sale, so the market price per book is set by the prices agreed upon by the current buyers and sellers. You have some extra cash, maybe you want to build a position in Star Wars 1s. You wouldn't have to be Warren Buffett to do it, and there have certainly been worse investment ideas.

 

There is currently a Signature Series book with a $3500 bid on it. If I think I can buy nice 9.8 copies, get them signed and sell them for more, I might take the chance.

 

 

 

You are entitled to your interpretation of those auctions and your opinion of this book's real "FMV".

 

I don't care about the book one way or the other, as my signature line should suggest, late Bronze Age movie adaptation books are not in my wheelhouse.

 

I just loathe (ebay) shilling and was a victim of it in my early CGC collecting days, and when I (or someone else who PM's me) see a sketchy bidding pattern in multiple auctions on one book that artificially inflates the price over an unnaturally compressed period of time, I will point it out.

 

That's kind of my "thing" around these parts. (thumbs u

 

-J.

[vint43]

This thread completely delivers. It's so easy to tell who owns a SW 1 9.8 and who doesn't based on what they post. Great stuff here.

 

My #1 was a gift. I am collecting the run.

 

I have a lot more frustration trying to find a #92 & #96 in cgc 9.8!

 

The prices for #42 #68 #107 and #2, #4, #5, and #6 are all climbing.

 

A low census #25 9.8 (or around there) bid to almost $300.00. It is a non issue. It was just low census. I thought I could buy it for $125 given what I was paying in November. I wasn't even close.

 

Several guys I have gotten to know in this effort were buying 9.8s in the run for $50.00. I found one under $100 in the last 2 months. Perhaps I just stink at finding better deals.

 

Getting the #1 was easy! I could care less what it is worth now.

 

However, when you see the entire run get more expensive every week, there is something more going on then a few fake auctions. Call it a bubble but it has affected more then just #1 and the scope is much larger then two auctions on eBay.

[ft88]

It's like the argument since the 1980s and the prices are being propped up by dealers buying from one another.

 

Granted that was and still is true (am I a dealer?) but dealers are also collectors with shifting tastes. They pay and paid what they pay and the prices have continued to rise.

 

Shilling is bad but the high bidder is still willing to pay what they are willing to pay. With multiple buys in multiple formats and the other key and non key issues clearly on the rise the point that these are manipulated prices is really weak.

[Snikt!1988]

just checked the registry… noted a handful of 9.8s… I sold my 9.8 to a guy looking to complete his run… someone should tally the 9.8s in the registry vs the total graded… 250 blue label or so… vs x amount in the registry…

Edited February 19, 2015 by Snikt!1988

[Jaydogrules]

It's like the argument since the 1980s and the prices are being propped up by dealers buying from one another.

 

Granted that was and still is true (am I a dealer?) but dealers are also collectors with shifting tastes. They pay and paid what they pay and the prices have continued to rise.

 

Shilling is bad but the high bidder is still willing to pay what they are willing to pay. With multiple buys in multiple formats and the other key and non key issues clearly on the rise the point that these are manipulated prices is really weak.

 

Other than ebay, where has this book "sold" for at these prices ? The couple by Greg on the boards? His price point was influenced by those shilled ebay auctions which were run up by the same two "bidders" all three times and "won" by the same "buyer" twice and were subsequently reported to GPA. That an uninformed or casual shopper might believe the book is actually now "worth" this only proved yet again why shilling works and is done in the first place.

 

Fruit from the poisonous tree.

 

As far as other books in the run also going up in value. No that isn't surprising at all either, since a rising tide will raise all boats.

 

-J.

 

 

[Hulksdaddy1]

via Imgflip Meme Maker

 

 

 

[vint43]

It's like the argument since the 1980s and the prices are being propped up by dealers buying from one another.

 

Granted that was and still is true (am I a dealer?) but dealers are also collectors with shifting tastes. They pay and paid what they pay and the prices have continued to rise.

 

Shilling is bad but the high bidder is still willing to pay what they are willing to pay. With multiple buys in multiple formats and the other key and non key issues clearly on the rise the point that these are manipulated prices is really weak.

 

Other than ebay, where has this book "sold" for at these prices ? The couple by Greg on the boards? His price point was influenced by those shilled ebay auctions which were run up by the same two "bidders" all three times and "won" by the same "buyer" twice and were subsequently reported to GPA. That an uninformed or casual shopper might believe the book is actually now "worth" this only proved yet again why shilling works and is done in the first place.

 

Fruit from the poisonous tree.

 

As far as other books in the run also going up in value. No that isn't surprising at all either, since a rising tide will raise all boats.

 

-J.

 

 

Ok, I think at this point you are really stretching the influence of two auctions in the last few weeks.

 

Prices have been on the rise since last November for the entire run. #1 was getting $1000 at the end of December up from $700 in November.

 

I realize you got burnt but you might be over stating what a few auctions have done. This started way before those auctions. They might be fraud but the overall movement was happening and, if they are fake, they just took advantage of movement that was already happening.

 

They did not create this movement on their own with two auctions.

 

#1 was sold for $1,500 on the board prior to Greg's listing. This is not all a big scam.

 

Perhaps the latest auctions are sketchy but they are not the whole story that explains price increases across the entire run over the past 3 months.

 

P.S. I should have clarified this. I am not sure what the "natural price" should be with this book. Perhaps $1,800 is artificially influenced (maybe not). However, it use to be a $500 book for awhile. I believe that price was going away with or without fake auctions. Where it would have landed I have no idea. My only point was movement was going to happen. These auctions, if fake, were taking advantage of new energy behind this issue not creating energy on their own.

Edited February 19, 2015 by vint43

[Jaydogrules]

via Imgflip Meme Maker

 

 

 

 

-J.

[Kir Kanos]

This thread completely delivers. It's so easy to tell who owns a SW 1 9.8 and who doesn't based on what they post. Great stuff here.

 

My #1 was a gift. I am collecting the run.

 

I have a lot more frustration trying to find a #92 & #96 in cgc 9.8!

 

The prices for #42 #68 #107 and #2, #4, #5, and #6 are all climbing.

 

A low census #25 9.8 (or around there) bid to almost $300.00. It is a non issue. It was just low census. I thought I could buy it for $125 given what I was paying in November. I wasn't even close.

 

Several guys I have gotten to know in this effort were buying 9.8s in the run for $50.00. I found one under $100 in the last 2 months. Perhaps I just stink at finding better deals.

 

Getting the #1 was easy! I could care less what it is worth now.

 

However, when you see the entire run get more expensive every week, there is something more going on then a few fake auctions. Call it a bubble but it has affected more then just #1 and the scope is much larger then two auctions on eBay.

 

I totally agree with your perspective on #1. I have a copy in 9.8 but it's only one part of a set that I have been working on for years to complete.

 

Part of me has really not wanted the interest for #1 or any of the other issues to increase in value because it just makes it harder and harder to complete the set for the low census issues.

 

With respect to the problem issues, I have submitted a fair number of raw issues to help contribute to a lot of 9.6's in the census (grrrrr).

[gregreece]

This thread completely delivers. It's so easy to tell who owns a SW 1 9.8 and who doesn't based on what they post. Great stuff here.

 

4 of the 5 9.8's I had were sold prior to my posting in this thread. So my agenda in posting here was to provide additional information/alternative viewpoint. If I was looking to pump I would've done so before I sold 4 copies. I respect others opinions but in this case do not believe 2 ebay auctions have artificially inflated prices. They were already rising before the 1st $1800 or so sale on ebay (I sold 2 on my site as the book started moving sharply higher.) There has been pent up demand for some time on this issue. All of that said, am I surprised at how rapidly it has climbed? Yes. But if Ms Marvel #1/Nova #1 can command the kind of #'s they have, then SW #1 can as well. Other than the 1 remaining 9.8 I have in stock (this will not make my year whether I sell it or not , I don't have a meaningful dog in this fight. Interesting discussion. Best to all, Greg

[Prince Namor]

This thread completely delivers. It's so easy to tell who owns a SW 1 9.8 and who doesn't based on what they post. Great stuff here.

 

4 of the 5 9.8's I had were sold prior to my posting in this thread. So my agenda in posting here was to provide additional information/alternative viewpoint. If I was looking to pump I would've done so before I sold 4 copies. I respect others opinions but in this case do not believe 2 ebay auctions have artificially inflated prices. They were already rising before the 1st $1800 or so sale on ebay (I sold 2 on my site as the book started moving sharply higher.) There has been pent up demand for some time on this issue. All of that said, am I surprised at how rapidly it has climbed? Yes. But if Ms Marvel #1/Nova #1 can command the kind of #'s they have, then SW #1 can as well. Other than the 1 remaining 9.8 I have in stock (this will not make my year whether I sell it or not , I don't have a meaningful dog in this fight. Interesting discussion. Best to all, Greg

 

Thanks Greg! It's always appreciated when one of our national sellers is able to provide insight (and actual sales) on something like this.

 

You mention the pent up demand for this book and someone else mentioned how many copies of it are out there - this is a book that has been hoarded by some collectors over the last two years, decreasing the number of copies in the market, because they saw this exact scenario coming up with the release of the movie. So yeah, I can see the copies that are available, especially in high grade, going for a premium.

 

Some might say that's an artificial increase, but, as you say, if Ms Marvel#1/Nova#1 can command that kind of #'s, then something like Star Wars (that has 100,000X the fan base) can as well! Actual people are paying those actual amounts for the book - I'm not sure how much more proof that people need.

 

Though I imagine, as we get closer to the release of the new movie, we'll start to see plenty more of that proof appear...

[r100comics]

 

A 9.6 with multiple sigs sold for $2,500 B.I.N. a few days back.

 

 

[Mr 9.8]

Wow.

[Transplant]

This thread completely delivers. It's so easy to tell who owns a SW 1 9.8 and who doesn't based on what they post. Great stuff here.

 

4 of the 5 9.8's I had were sold prior to my posting in this thread. So my agenda in posting here was to provide additional information/alternative viewpoint. If I was looking to pump I would've done so before I sold 4 copies. I respect others opinions but in this case do not believe 2 ebay auctions have artificially inflated prices. They were already rising before the 1st $1800 or so sale on ebay (I sold 2 on my site as the book started moving sharply higher.) There has been pent up demand for some time on this issue. All of that said, am I surprised at how rapidly it has climbed? Yes. But if Ms Marvel #1/Nova #1 can command the kind of #'s they have, then SW #1 can as well. Other than the 1 remaining 9.8 I have in stock (this will not make my year whether I sell it or not , I don't have a meaningful dog in this fight. Interesting discussion. Best to all, Greg

Greg, you report to GPA, right? Which #1 sales on there are yours? You mention 4 sales leading up to your board listing. Which ones are those?

[jimjum12]

A 9.6 with multiple sigs sold for $2,500 B.I.N. a few days back.

 

 

....this isn't surprising when one factors in the hundreds, if not thousands of dollars associated with getting all those sigs on one copy. It's not like Ford or Jones is coming to your house to sign one. GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[CBT]

4 of the 5 9.8's I had were sold prior to my posting in this thread. So my agenda in posting here was to provide additional information/alternative viewpoint. If I was looking to pump I would've done so before I sold 4 copies. I respect others opinions but in this case do not believe 2 ebay auctions have artificially inflated prices. They were already rising before the 1st $1800 or so sale on ebay (I sold 2 on my site as the book started moving sharply higher.) There has been pent up demand for some time on this issue. All of that said, am I surprised at how rapidly it has climbed? Yes. But if Ms Marvel #1/Nova #1 can command the kind of #'s they have, then SW #1 can as well. Other than the 1 remaining 9.8 I have in stock (this will not make my year whether I sell it or not , I don't have a meaningful dog in this fight. Interesting discussion. Best to all, Greg

 

Just getting caught up on this thread, I havent been following this sharp rise but it doesnt surprise me. I bought the one in my sig last summer because it was pretty obvious it was only a matter of time. I was desperate to get in before the big jump as its a book I had always wanted and not gotten around to buying.

 

I agree with greg big time on this, the demand and alignment for this jump has been building for some time. As soon as Disney bought Lucasfilm and said they were going to create a shared universe, and multiple media platform launches plus new movies, it was pretty much guaranteed. Yah its a common book, but there are way more Star Wars fans and Star Wars comic collectors, than 9.8 copies.

 

If I had multiple copies I might considering selling at such high prices, but this under appreciated book due to its print run, is one bronze age key in 9.8 I think most collectors should have in their keeper pile.

Edited February 19, 2015 by CBT

[jimjum12]

It's probably going to experience slow rises and some corrections for a while..... and I don't think anyone is saying it's going to hit 3K in the next year..... but the days of grabbing a 9.8 for $ 700 are probably gone. GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[gregreece]

This thread completely delivers. It's so easy to tell who owns a SW 1 9.8 and who doesn't based on what they post. Great stuff here.

 

4 of the 5 9.8's I had were sold prior to my posting in this thread. So my agenda in posting here was to provide additional information/alternative viewpoint. If I was looking to pump I would've done so before I sold 4 copies. I respect others opinions but in this case do not believe 2 ebay auctions have artificially inflated prices. They were already rising before the 1st $1800 or so sale on ebay (I sold 2 on my site as the book started moving sharply higher.) There has been pent up demand for some time on this issue. All of that said, am I surprised at how rapidly it has climbed? Yes. But if Ms Marvel #1/Nova #1 can command the kind of #'s they have, then SW #1 can as well. Other than the 1 remaining 9.8 I have in stock (this will not make my year whether I sell it or not , I don't have a meaningful dog in this fight. Interesting discussion. Best to all, Greg

Greg, you report to GPA, right? Which #1 sales on there are yours? You mention 4 sales leading up to your board listing. Which ones are those?

 

4 sales before I posted in this thread. 2 of the sales were here on the boards in a sales thread just the last couple of days:

 

Edited to say, we originally listed the first book book on 1/6. The sale date was 1/22 and has in fact, been captured by GPA. Sorry for the mix up.

 

1258087004 $900 1/22/15

 

1258087005 $1150 1/27/15 (this was sold through our ebay store)

 

1258087004 $1699 2/17/15

 

1258087006 $1699 2/17/15

 

 

Edited February 19, 2015 by gregreece