$84K for an FF 52?!?

[tth2]

Some "high" prices end up as bargains in hindsight...some simply remain high. For every aggressive price that ended up being a win, there is a Gary Keller out there.

Who is Gary Keller?

 

I remember Dr. Jack – the guy who quickly bought a ton of high grade Spideys and not too long later sold them at a loss to buy an MRI machine. (Or at least that was the story.) He probably would have done ok if he waited a bit. But he's probably done ok with the MRIs too.

 

A collector who amassed dozen and dozens of Church copies, only to take massive losses on resale through Heritage. Into six figures I think.

 

I will try to find the thread.

Another example of taking losses as a result of selling too early. Prices in the last Heritage auction would indicate that he might be breaking even or even making a profit if he sold now.

[Ghost Town]

Well, there were a lot of laughs and derision from dealers and collectors whenever a book sold for a wacky price back at Sotheby's too. The numbers have changed by a few decimal places, but seeing books we are well aware of the relative values of sell for ridiculous prices will always bring the same reaction we see nowadays.

I probably missed the laughs because Brad Savage was talking so loud at the time.

[Ghost Town]

Some "high" prices end up as bargains in hindsight...some simply remain high. For every aggressive price that ended up being a win, there is a Gary Keller out there.

Who is Gary Keller?

 

I remember Dr. Jack – the guy who quickly bought a ton of high grade Spideys and not too long later sold them at a loss to buy an MRI machine. (Or at least that was the story.) He probably would have done ok if he waited a bit. But he's probably done ok with the MRIs too.

 

A collector who amassed dozen and dozens of Church copies, only to take massive losses on resale through Heritage. Into six figures I think.

 

I will try to find the thread.

 

The auctions referenced in this thread were hard to watch.

 

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Board=15&Number=4183736&Searchpage=1&Main=198622&Words=Keller&topic=0&Search=true#Post4183736

Yikes.

[october]

Some "high" prices end up as bargains in hindsight...some simply remain high. For every aggressive price that ended up being a win, there is a Gary Keller out there.

Who is Gary Keller?

 

I remember Dr. Jack – the guy who quickly bought a ton of high grade Spideys and not too long later sold them at a loss to buy an MRI machine. (Or at least that was the story.) He probably would have done ok if he waited a bit. But he's probably done ok with the MRIs too.

 

A collector who amassed dozen and dozens of Church copies, only to take massive losses on resale through Heritage. Into six figures I think.

 

I will try to find the thread.

Another example of taking losses as a result of selling too early. Prices in the last Heritage auction would indicate that he might be breaking even or even making a profit if he sold now.

 

You might be right. Hard to know. At the time it was pretty shocking that he was taking 25 and 50% haircuts on books that he had bought only a few years earlier. Definitely showed how thin the buying pool was for those types of high-end books at the time.

[Sqeggs]

 

I'd be a little more sanguine about the wisdom of paying $20k for a Superman 199 if a 9.6 with better pages hadn't just sold a few month before that at 30% of that amount. Silver age peds are nice, but I not sure one adds $14k in value in this case.

 

 

Interesting that another Supes 199 in 9.6 with Off White pages, non pedigree, came up for sale on the Boards for a mere 22K. Crazy.

 

See a book sell for a crazy high price? Offer your less desirable copy for crazy price +10%.

 

Actually, since you pay no fees on the boards, I suppose you would net +20% over what the consignor of the other copy got.

 

Not that there's anything wrong with that!

[adamstrange]

There is at least one with better PQ.

 

I slabbed a 9.6 copy five or six years ago that came back with white pages. At the time it was one of two copies in grade, and it sold on CLink for $2200 or so. Seemed a little low at the time, but not horrible. The $20k sale is incredible (irrational), but there are record sales just about every day now. They are losing their capacity to shock.

 

I was wondering if any of the 4 Supes 199 in 9.6 had White Pages. Figures you would be the one to bring it to market (compliment I hope) ! There is another for sale on the Boards with Off White.

 

Nothing shocks me any more regarding final hammer. It's a strong market. I agree with Bob Namisgr, we should be embracing these sales, not slamming them.

 

I am not sure. I will agree that this market is exciting, but I will take slow and steady growth over this type of thing any day. The more that prices explode the higher the chances are that someone will get burned. It doesn't take too many times being taken out behind the woodshed for a collector to lose their desire to collect, no matter what their level of disposable income.

This is a fair statement of why folks get a little concerned, especially when the exit can be messy.

[Aman619]

Well, there were a lot of laughs and derision from dealers and collectors whenever a book sold for a wacky price back at Sotheby's too. The numbers have changed by a few decimal places, but seeing books we are well aware of the relative values of sell for ridiculous prices will always bring the same reaction we see nowadays.

I probably missed the laughs because Brad Savage was talking so loud at the time.

 

Koo Koo!!

[tth2]

Some "high" prices end up as bargains in hindsight...some simply remain high. For every aggressive price that ended up being a win, there is a Gary Keller out there.

Who is Gary Keller?

 

I remember Dr. Jack – the guy who quickly bought a ton of high grade Spideys and not too long later sold them at a loss to buy an MRI machine. (Or at least that was the story.) He probably would have done ok if he waited a bit. But he's probably done ok with the MRIs too.

 

A collector who amassed dozen and dozens of Church copies, only to take massive losses on resale through Heritage. Into six figures I think.

 

I will try to find the thread.

Another example of taking losses as a result of selling too early. Prices in the last Heritage auction would indicate that he might be breaking even or even making a profit if he sold now.

 

You might be right. Hard to know. At the time it was pretty shocking that he was taking 25 and 50% haircuts on books that he had bought only a few years earlier. Definitely showed how thin the buying pool was for those types of high-end books at the time.

Aggressively overpaying and then selling quickly under duress is, always has been and always will be, a pretty toxic combination.

[october]

Some "high" prices end up as bargains in hindsight...some simply remain high. For every aggressive price that ended up being a win, there is a Gary Keller out there.

Who is Gary Keller?

 

I remember Dr. Jack – the guy who quickly bought a ton of high grade Spideys and not too long later sold them at a loss to buy an MRI machine. (Or at least that was the story.) He probably would have done ok if he waited a bit. But he's probably done ok with the MRIs too.

 

A collector who amassed dozen and dozens of Church copies, only to take massive losses on resale through Heritage. Into six figures I think.

 

I will try to find the thread.

Another example of taking losses as a result of selling too early. Prices in the last Heritage auction would indicate that he might be breaking even or even making a profit if he sold now.

 

You might be right. Hard to know. At the time it was pretty shocking that he was taking 25 and 50% haircuts on books that he had bought only a few years earlier. Definitely showed how thin the buying pool was for those types of high-end books at the time.

Aggressively overpaying and then selling quickly under duress is, always has been and always will be, a pretty toxic combination.

 

The fact that he was buying these at auction should have mitigated some of those losses, at least in theory. What happened to the underbidders who were willing to pay one increment lower the first time around? It was clear that a handful of people participating, or not participating, made a huge difference.

[Sqeggs]

Some "high" prices end up as bargains in hindsight...some simply remain high. For every aggressive price that ended up being a win, there is a Gary Keller out there.

Who is Gary Keller?

 

I remember Dr. Jack – the guy who quickly bought a ton of high grade Spideys and not too long later sold them at a loss to buy an MRI machine. (Or at least that was the story.) He probably would have done ok if he waited a bit. But he's probably done ok with the MRIs too.

 

A collector who amassed dozen and dozens of Church copies, only to take massive losses on resale through Heritage. Into six figures I think.

 

I will try to find the thread.

Another example of taking losses as a result of selling too early. Prices in the last Heritage auction would indicate that he might be breaking even or even making a profit if he sold now.

 

You might be right. Hard to know. At the time it was pretty shocking that he was taking 25 and 50% haircuts on books that he had bought only a few years earlier. Definitely showed how thin the buying pool was for those types of high-end books at the time.

Aggressively overpaying and then selling quickly under duress is, always has been and always will be, a pretty toxic combination.

 

The fact that he was buying these at auction should have mitigated some of those losses, at least in theory. What happened to the underbidders who were willing to pay one increment lower the first time around? It was clear that a handful of people participating, or not participating, made a huge difference.

 

I think of it sometimes as the "third guy" problem:

 

Winner pays $20,000

 

First underbidder was willing to pay one increment lower

 

Second underbidder (third guy) was willing to pay ... Two increments lower? $10,000? $5,000?

 

On books that aren't widely collected, that third guy's willingness to pay may be way down there.

[tth2]

Some "high" prices end up as bargains in hindsight...some simply remain high. For every aggressive price that ended up being a win, there is a Gary Keller out there.

Who is Gary Keller?

 

I remember Dr. Jack – the guy who quickly bought a ton of high grade Spideys and not too long later sold them at a loss to buy an MRI machine. (Or at least that was the story.) He probably would have done ok if he waited a bit. But he's probably done ok with the MRIs too.

 

A collector who amassed dozen and dozens of Church copies, only to take massive losses on resale through Heritage. Into six figures I think.

 

I will try to find the thread.

Another example of taking losses as a result of selling too early. Prices in the last Heritage auction would indicate that he might be breaking even or even making a profit if he sold now.

 

You might be right. Hard to know. At the time it was pretty shocking that he was taking 25 and 50% haircuts on books that he had bought only a few years earlier. Definitely showed how thin the buying pool was for those types of high-end books at the time.

Aggressively overpaying and then selling quickly under duress is, always has been and always will be, a pretty toxic combination.

 

The fact that he was buying these at auction should have mitigated some of those losses, at least in theory. What happened to the underbidders who were willing to pay one increment lower the first time around? It was clear that a handful of people participating, or not participating, made a huge difference.

 

I think of it sometimes as the "third guy" problem:

 

Winner pays $20,000

 

First underbidder was willing to pay one increment lower

 

Second underbidder (third guy) was willing to pay ... Two increments lower? $10,000? $5,000?

 

On books that aren't widely collected, that third guy's willingness to pay may be way down there.

I think that`s exactly right. Keller bought a lot of esoteric books that were really nice but kind of niche.

 

Take some of the MH New Adventures that he won first time around. His primary competitor was probably RHG, and then a big drop off to the next bidder. So when Keller had to sell, there was Peter to pick up the books at 50 cents on the dollar, because the next highest bidder was way down below.

[jimjum12]

Some "high" prices end up as bargains in hindsight...some simply remain high. For every aggressive price that ended up being a win, there is a Gary Keller out there.

Who is Gary Keller?

 

I remember Dr. Jack – the guy who quickly bought a ton of high grade Spideys and not too long later sold them at a loss to buy an MRI machine. (Or at least that was the story.) He probably would have done ok if he waited a bit. But he's probably done ok with the MRIs too.

 

A collector who amassed dozen and dozens of Church copies, only to take massive losses on resale through Heritage. Into six figures I think.

 

I will try to find the thread.

Another example of taking losses as a result of selling too early. Prices in the last Heritage auction would indicate that he might be breaking even or even making a profit if he sold now.

 

You might be right. Hard to know. At the time it was pretty shocking that he was taking 25 and 50% haircuts on books that he had bought only a few years earlier. Definitely showed how thin the buying pool was for those types of high-end books at the time.

Aggressively overpaying and then selling quickly under duress is, always has been and always will be, a pretty toxic combination.

 

The fact that he was buying these at auction should have mitigated some of those losses, at least in theory. What happened to the underbidders who were willing to pay one increment lower the first time around? It was clear that a handful of people participating, or not participating, made a huge difference.

 

I think of it sometimes as the "third guy" problem:

 

Winner pays $20,000

 

First underbidder was willing to pay one increment lower

 

Second underbidder (third guy) was willing to pay ... Two increments lower? $10,000? $5,000?

 

On books that aren't widely collected, that third guy's willingness to pay may be way down there.

I think that`s exactly right. Keller bought a lot of esoteric books that were really nice but kind of niche.

 

Take some of the MH New Adventures that he won first time around. His primary competitor was probably RHG, and then a big drop off to the next bidder. So when Keller had to sell, there was Peter to pick up the books at 50 cents on the dollar, because the next highest bidder was way down below.

 

In this hobby we will always have The Intelligent Collector..... and then those, shall we say, more emotional ones...... sadly, I probably drift closer towards the later category. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[VintageComics]

Some "high" prices end up as bargains in hindsight...some simply remain high. For every aggressive price that ended up being a win, there is a Gary Keller out there.

Who is Gary Keller?

 

I remember Dr. Jack – the guy who quickly bought a ton of high grade Spideys and not too long later sold them at a loss to buy an MRI machine. (Or at least that was the story.) He probably would have done ok if he waited a bit. But he's probably done ok with the MRIs too.

 

A collector who amassed dozen and dozens of Church copies, only to take massive losses on resale through Heritage. Into six figures I think.

 

I will try to find the thread.

Another example of taking losses as a result of selling too early. Prices in the last Heritage auction would indicate that he might be breaking even or even making a profit if he sold now.

 

You might be right. Hard to know. At the time it was pretty shocking that he was taking 25 and 50% haircuts on books that he had bought only a few years earlier. Definitely showed how thin the buying pool was for those types of high-end books at the time.

 

Many of those books were bought up by a savvy buyer who could afford to hang onto them, and profit from them he did.

[VintageComics]

Some "high" prices end up as bargains in hindsight...some simply remain high. For every aggressive price that ended up being a win, there is a Gary Keller out there.

Who is Gary Keller?

 

I remember Dr. Jack – the guy who quickly bought a ton of high grade Spideys and not too long later sold them at a loss to buy an MRI machine. (Or at least that was the story.) He probably would have done ok if he waited a bit. But he's probably done ok with the MRIs too.

 

A collector who amassed dozen and dozens of Church copies, only to take massive losses on resale through Heritage. Into six figures I think.

 

I will try to find the thread.

Another example of taking losses as a result of selling too early. Prices in the last Heritage auction would indicate that he might be breaking even or even making a profit if he sold now.

 

You might be right. Hard to know. At the time it was pretty shocking that he was taking 25 and 50% haircuts on books that he had bought only a few years earlier. Definitely showed how thin the buying pool was for those types of high-end books at the time.

Aggressively overpaying and then selling quickly under duress is, always has been and always will be, a pretty toxic combination.

 

The fact that he was buying these at auction should have mitigated some of those losses, at least in theory. What happened to the underbidders who were willing to pay one increment lower the first time around? It was clear that a handful of people participating, or not participating, made a huge difference.

 

Keller sold under the heat of the global financial meltdown IIRC so it's possible other under bidders were also affected.

[tth2]

In this hobby we will always have The Intelligent Collector..... and then those, shall we say, more emotional ones...... sadly, I probably drift closer towards the later category. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

I force myself to be unemotional by not participating in the live floor bidding (which thankfully is not hard thanks to the time difference).

 

The one time I stayed up late, I got caught up in the excitement and emotion and competition and ended up bidding like a maniac!

[Sqeggs]

In this hobby we will always have The Intelligent Collector..... and then those, shall we say, more emotional ones...... sadly, I probably drift closer towards the later category. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

I force myself to be unemotional by not participating in the live floor bidding (which thankfully is not hard thanks to the time difference).

 

The one time I stayed up late, I got caught up in the excitement and emotion and competition and ended up bidding like a maniac!

 

Yeah, but you were a maniac who owned some cool new books!

[lou_fine]

 

Who is Gary Keller?

 

A collector who amassed dozen and dozens of Church copies, only to take massive losses on resale through Heritage. Into six figures I think.

 

I will try to find the thread.

 

Another example of taking losses as a result of selling too early. Prices in the last Heritage auction would indicate that he might be breaking even or even making a profit if he sold now.

 

The problem is that Gary Keller was probably more of an investor or speculator, as opposed to a true collector when it came to comic books.

 

In that sense and with the mentality of a normal investor, he probably felt that four years should have been adequate in terms of a reasonable holding period and far too long if he was thinking in terms of a speculator.

 

To break even in the last HA auction meant he would have had to hold the books for 8 years and only a true collector would have no issue with holding books for that long of a time period.

 

He definitely did overpay for them in the first place which definitely put him years behind the eight ball and did not wait long enough to catch up to it.

[lou_fine]

Aggressively overpaying and then selling quickly under duress is, always has been and always will be, a pretty toxic combination.

 

The fact that he was buying these at auction should have mitigated some of those losses, at least in theory. What happened to the underbidders who were willing to pay one increment lower the first time around? It was clear that a handful of people participating, or not participating, made a huge difference.

 

I think of it sometimes as the "third guy" problem:

 

Winner pays $20,000

 

First underbidder was willing to pay one increment lower

 

Second underbidder (third guy) was willing to pay ... Two increments lower? $10,000? $5,000?

 

On books that aren't widely collected, that third guy's willingness to pay may be way down there.

I think that`s exactly right. Keller bought a lot of esoteric books that were really nice but kind of niche.

 

 

Actually, I feel that the large majority of the comic book market is made up of various niches.

 

In fact, I even feel that buyers chasing after the CGC highest graded copies of a book are also niche players playing within a very tiny niche of the overall comic book market. I actually personally do not know of more than 1 or 2 collectors, if that, who are active chasers of highest graded copies of books.

 

Definitely makes you wonder how far down the third bidder was in terms of the Avengers 4 that sold for over $100K, the GL 76 that sold for over $35K, the 9.8 Hulk 181 when it initially sold for a GPA record high, the FF 52 for $84K which resold for only $61K a few months later, the Supes 199 for $19K when an equivalent graded copy with better PQ sold for only 30% of that price a few months earlier, etc.

[tth2]

The problem is that Gary Keller was probably more of an investor or speculator, as opposed to a true collector when it came to comic books.

I seriously doubt that, or if he really was an investor or speculator, he was the most ill-informed investor/speculator ever.

 

Who tries to make a quick killing in comics by buying New Adventures and the other types of relatively esoteric books that he was buying? Especially paying way over the odds for them? If you're going to be a short-term speculator, you want to invest in liquid books with high demand, like Batman, Detective, Captain America, etc.

 

If you're thinking he was a speculator because of the fact that he sold his books so quickly, my understanding is that he sold when he did only because he was in financial duress.

[the blob]

A 9.6 PC copy of Supes 199 just sold in auction for 19,750 and it didn't even have White Pages. To me, that sale is more amazing than these FF52 sales. Just think, a DC comic in 9.6, without WP, and not really a key (although it is a cool book).

 

Exactly right!

 

This is just the latest in another example of a CGC highest graded copy of an otherwise common book in anything less than the highest grade selling for a irrational moonshot price. Like all other similar common books selling at these types of insane multiples above the previous highest recorded sale, this will in time result in a significant loss for the purchaser of this particular copy.

 

Especially in light of the fact that Supes 199 is not even an early SA book and there are already 4 copies in equivalent grade out there, possibly with even better PQ than this particular copy here.

 

 

That's cray cray. You can buy beaters of that for $3, and an OK looking copy for $15 (the kind of copy that would be like $130-50 for the FF 52).