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$84K for an FF 52?!?

Started by LordRahl,

538 posts in this topic

the blob

the blob

Posted
Posted
Some "high" prices end up as bargains in hindsight...some simply remain high. For every aggressive price that ended up being a win, there is a Gary Keller out there.

Who is Gary Keller?

 

I remember Dr. Jack – the guy who quickly bought a ton of high grade Spideys and not too long later sold them at a loss to buy an MRI machine. (Or at least that was the story.) He probably would have done ok if he waited a bit. But he's probably done ok with the MRIs too.

 

A collector who amassed dozen and dozens of Church copies, only to take massive losses on resale through Heritage. Into six figures I think.

 

I will try to find the thread.

 

The auctions referenced in this thread were hard to watch.

 

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Board=15&Number=4183736&Searchpage=1&Main=198622&Words=Keller&topic=0&Search=true#Post4183736

Yikes.

 

Really not more in terms of loss % than people were getting in stocks and real estate during a similar period.

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Hepcat

Hepcat

Posted
Posted

 

I think of it sometimes as the "third guy" problem:

 

Winner pays $20,000

 

First underbidder was willing to pay one increment lower

 

Second underbidder (third guy) was willing to pay ... Two increments lower? $10,000? $5,000?

 

On books that aren't widely collected, that third guy's willingness to pay may be way down there.

 

I think that`s exactly right. Keller bought a lot of esoteric books that were really nice but kind of niche.

 

Take some of the MH New Adventures that he won first time around. His primary competitor was probably RHG, and then a big drop off to the next bidder. So when Keller had to sell, there was Peter to pick up the books at 50 cents on the dollar, because the next highest bidder was way down below.

 

The mathematics of auctions for a seller can be really ugly if and when the high bidder is no longer there. That's because the high bidder has to outbid the second highest bidder, but the second highest bidder has to outbid only the third highest bidder.

 

Take this hypothetical example. Mr. A is willing to pay $100,000 for XYZ Funnies 1, Mr. B is willing to pay $90,000 and Mr. C is willing to pay $20,000. An auction would see Mr. A paying $95,000 for the comic. But if Mr. A then dies immediately, a new auction would see Mr. B having to pay "only" $22,000 for the comic.

 

:o

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Sqeggs

Sqeggs

Posted
Posted

 

I think of it sometimes as the "third guy" problem:

 

Winner pays $20,000

 

First underbidder was willing to pay one increment lower

 

Second underbidder (third guy) was willing to pay ... Two increments lower? $10,000? $5,000?

 

On books that aren't widely collected, that third guy's willingness to pay may be way down there.

 

I think that`s exactly right. Keller bought a lot of esoteric books that were really nice but kind of niche.

 

Take some of the MH New Adventures that he won first time around. His primary competitor was probably RHG, and then a big drop off to the next bidder. So when Keller had to sell, there was Peter to pick up the books at 50 cents on the dollar, because the next highest bidder was way down below.

 

The mathematics of auctions for a seller can be really ugly if and when the high bidder is no longer there. That's because the high bidder has to outbid the second highest bidder, but the second highest bidder has to outbid only the third highest bidder.

 

Take this hypothetical example. Mr. A is willing to pay $100,000 for XYZ Funnies 1, Mr. B is willing to pay $90,000 and Mr. C is willing to pay $20,000. An auction would see Mr. A paying $95,000 for the comic. But if Mr. A then dies immediately, a new auction would see Mr. B having to pay "only" $22,000 for the comic.

 

:o

 

Isn't that the same point tth2 and I made? :baiting:

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Hepcat

Hepcat

Posted
Posted
In fact, I even feel that buyers chasing after the CGC highest graded copies of a book are also niche players playing within a very tiny niche of the overall comic book market. I actually personally do not know of more than 1 or 2 collectors, if that, who are active chasers of highest graded copies of books.

 

Put me down on the list of individuals you know who aren't willing to chase the highest graded copy. I've built my collection by buying whatever was "nice enough" by my standards when I could afford to pay the price.

 

;)

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bluechip

bluechip

Posted
Posted

 

I think of it sometimes as the "third guy" problem:

 

Winner pays $20,000

 

First underbidder was willing to pay one increment lower

 

Second underbidder (third guy) was willing to pay ... Two increments lower? $10,000? $5,000?

 

On books that aren't widely collected, that third guy's willingness to pay may be way down there.

 

I think that`s exactly right. Keller bought a lot of esoteric books that were really nice but kind of niche.

 

Take some of the MH New Adventures that he won first time around. His primary competitor was probably RHG, and then a big drop off to the next bidder. So when Keller had to sell, there was Peter to pick up the books at 50 cents on the dollar, because the next highest bidder was way down below.

 

The mathematics of auctions for a seller can be really ugly if and when the high bidder is no longer there. That's because the high bidder has to outbid the second highest bidder, but the second highest bidder has to outbid only the third highest bidder.

 

Take this hypothetical example. Mr. A is willing to pay $100,000 for XYZ Funnies 1, Mr. B is willing to pay $90,000 and Mr. C is willing to pay $20,000. An auction would see Mr. A paying $95,000 for the comic. But if Mr. A then dies immediately, a new auction would see Mr. B having to pay "only" $22,000 for the comic.

 

:o

 

People misread the bidding stats sometimes.

 

Many times I have been bidding and sat back, not placing bids while bidders 1, 2 and 3 were bidding, and I've seen bidder 3 and bidder 2 go past what I would have bid, if the others had not been there. Sometimes bidder 3 and bidder 2 both go just a little bit past what I would've bid. But because I was waiting for them to drop out, I wasn't bidding during the auction and the amount I would've bid is not in the record.

 

And I know there are others who do the same.

 

So, just because bidder 3 is far below bidder 2 doesn't mean there can't be one or more other people who were willing to bid closer to (or even equal to) the price of bidder 2

 

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Sqeggs

Sqeggs

Posted
Posted
In fact, I even feel that buyers chasing after the CGC highest graded copies of a book are also niche players playing within a very tiny niche of the overall comic book market. I actually personally do not know of more than 1 or 2 collectors, if that, who are active chasers of highest graded copies of books.

 

Put me down on the list of individuals you know who aren't willing to chase the highest graded copy. I've built my collection by buying whatever was "nice enough" by my standards when I could afford to pay the price.

 

;)

 

There have to be a significant number of people who chase highest graded copies or they wouldn't command the premiums they do. Even when the premiums aren't as over the top as on this book, they're still there.

 

A widely collected GA book in 9.0 will sell for significantly more if it's the sole highest graded copy on the census than if it's tied for highest graded with two other books. And, of course, it will almost certainly take a hit if it comes back on market after a 9.2 hits the census.

 

That 9.0 book is the same book in the same condition irrespective of how many books exist in that grade (or higher) on the census, but census rank clearly does matter to a lot of collectors.

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Sqeggs

Sqeggs

Posted
Posted

 

I think of it sometimes as the "third guy" problem:

 

Winner pays $20,000

 

First underbidder was willing to pay one increment lower

 

Second underbidder (third guy) was willing to pay ... Two increments lower? $10,000? $5,000?

 

On books that aren't widely collected, that third guy's willingness to pay may be way down there.

 

I think that`s exactly right. Keller bought a lot of esoteric books that were really nice but kind of niche.

 

Take some of the MH New Adventures that he won first time around. His primary competitor was probably RHG, and then a big drop off to the next bidder. So when Keller had to sell, there was Peter to pick up the books at 50 cents on the dollar, because the next highest bidder was way down below.

 

The mathematics of auctions for a seller can be really ugly if and when the high bidder is no longer there. That's because the high bidder has to outbid the second highest bidder, but the second highest bidder has to outbid only the third highest bidder.

 

Take this hypothetical example. Mr. A is willing to pay $100,000 for XYZ Funnies 1, Mr. B is willing to pay $90,000 and Mr. C is willing to pay $20,000. An auction would see Mr. A paying $95,000 for the comic. But if Mr. A then dies immediately, a new auction would see Mr. B having to pay "only" $22,000 for the comic.

 

:o

 

People misread the bidding stats sometimes.

 

Many times I have been bidding and sat back, not placing bids while bidders 1, 2 and 3 were bidding, and I've seen bidder 3 and bidder 2 go past what I would have bid, if the others had not been there. Sometimes bidder 3 and bidder 2 both go just a little bit past what I would've bid. But because I was waiting for them to drop out, I wasn't bidding during the auction and the amount I would've bid is not in the record.

 

And I know there are others who do the same.

 

So, just because bidder 3 is far below bidder 2 doesn't mean there can't be one or more other people who were willing to bid closer to (or even equal to) the price of bidder 2

 

I think you are right. We've all been in auctions where we were waiting to bid, but the bidding went above what we wanted to pay -- but not all that far above.

 

So, we represented an implicit floor on what the book would sell for if it were relisted by the winner because we were willing to pay an amount not far below what the second bidder bid.

 

But with hindsight I think a good explanation of why books like the Keller books take a bath when they reappear on the market is that the third bidder really was way down there, so the hammer price falls a long way.

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VintageComics

VintageComics

Posted
Posted

It's more than just the 3rd bidder theory.

 

Once the books sold cheap the second time around it would have also spooked bidders into rethinking their bidding strategies.

 

Finally, the economic downturn would have greatly affected many hi end buyers who were heavily invested in real estate. Geppi for one, who may have been a bidder was definitely affected. Who knows how many others were.

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bluechip

bluechip

Posted
Posted
In fact, I even feel that buyers chasing after the CGC highest graded copies of a book are also niche players playing within a very tiny niche of the overall comic book market. I actually personally do not know of more than 1 or 2 collectors, if that, who are active chasers of highest graded copies of books.

 

Put me down on the list of individuals you know who aren't willing to chase the highest graded copy. I've built my collection by buying whatever was "nice enough" by my standards when I could afford to pay the price.

 

;)

 

There have to be a significant number of people who chase highest graded copies or they wouldn't command the premiums they do. Even when the premiums aren't as over the top as on this book, they're still there.

 

A widely collected GA book in 9.0 will sell for significantly more if it's the sole highest graded copy on the census than if it's tied for highest graded with two other books. And, of course, it will almost certainly take a hit if it comes back on market after a 9.2 hits the census.

 

That 9.0 book is the same book in the same condition irrespective of how many books exist in that grade (or higher) on the census, but census rank clearly does matter to a lot of collectors.

 

It matters to a lot of collectors a lot more than it ever could to me.

 

And we shouldn't presume that each time a top graded book loses unique status that the original buyer is overcome with remorse and/or never thought it would happen. Life is short for all of us and for some people having the best available book today means more to them than the money they might save if they waited for others to appear when the price may be lower. I've known many people with extremely excess disposable income who cannot resist buying the latest version of every tech device, no matter how minuscule the improvement or how insane the price, or how short a time it will be before it's available for much less. And I know that the guys who pay an obscene amount for the short-lived "best" piece of tech are generally not thinking they will be able to resell it for anything close to what they paid. They are purchasing a temporary experience (which, to some degree -- more or less -- we all are)

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THE_BEYONDER

THE_BEYONDER

Posted
Posted
There's a newly graded 9.8 copy listed on the C-Link exchange for a buy it now of, I think, $82,500. Let more discussion commence!

I'm pretty sure we talked about the same book back on page 21 of this thread. It was in a different holder at the time.

 

xZhnHm.jpg

 

Stunner

 

Smoothed out the top & voila! 9.8 :cloud9:

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Hepcat

Hepcat

Posted
Posted
In fact, I even feel that buyers chasing after the CGC highest graded copies of a book are also niche players playing within a very tiny niche of the overall comic book market. I actually personally do not know of more than 1 or 2 collectors, if that, who are active chasers of highest graded copies of books.

 

Put me down on the list of individuals you know who aren't willing to chase the highest graded copy. I've built my collection by buying whatever was "nice enough" by my standards when I could afford to pay the price.

 

;)

 

There have to be a significant number of people who chase highest graded copies or they wouldn't command the premiums they do. Even when the premiums aren't as over the top as on this book, they're still there.

 

A widely collected GA book in 9.0 will sell for significantly more if it's the sole highest graded copy on the census than if it's tied for highest graded with two other books. And, of course, it will almost certainly take a hit if it comes back on market after a 9.2 hits the census.

 

That 9.0 book is the same book in the same condition irrespective of how many books exist in that grade (or higher) on the census, but census rank clearly does matter to a lot of collectors.

 

I'm not denying that such people exist. I'm saying that their thinking is alien to me.

 

:insane:

 

 

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