Showcase #4 9.8 on Comic Connect - sold for 15k

[VintageComics]

 

btw -- as for producing data to back up a statement, watching high end sales closely for over ten to 20 years, and buying (and selling) some of these books for record amounts (in transactions that are not even n GPA) does give one a pretty good sense of the market for them.... sonny boy.

 

(couldn't resist.)

 

Yes, it sure does. Lots of people follow the markets for many years. This is a new market. Things are changing. I have a GPA membership and also have OSPGs. I follow the market as well by searching HA, CL and ComicConnect. I have a pulse on the market also.

 

That's why I asked for data. I didn't see any. If someone is so sure of themselves (enough to post it on a forum) to make a statement....why not be prepared to just provide some info when asked to back it up? And, if one doesn't want to share that information because they feel it is proprietary, then just say so rather than saying things like, I have nothing to prove to you...etc. It's just immature.

 

I'm a researcher. I don't take any answer for the gospel unless I do my homework on it and i'm convinced.

 

 

Mark,

 

I'm not trying to anger or upset you, but I don't think you're getting it.

 

Data acquistion on the high end of the market often comes with a high cost. Off-market transactions are common for obvious reasons. Reading OPG back-issues, subscribing to GPA, and watching auctions is only step one. Market makers sometimes spend years or even decades building trust with other market makers before data is shared. You're equating arrogance with a reluctance to give something away for free, and I think that's a bit unfair.

 

Asking for an opinion, getting it, and then demanding supporting data is equivalent to getting a free GPA lookup from GPA and then demanding the source code.

 

Right now you're doing a victory dance in front of the well you just pissed in. If you're truly looking for answers, I would recommend you stop doing this kind of thing. This may be the only well out in this part of the desert that you're exploring.

 

More than just sharing data, some of it is not out there to share. When markets are made, the only people who know how far that market is going to go is the people who will be doing the bidding.

 

But I do agree with squeggs. Who the heck knows anymore?

 

We're used to seeing logical increases based on fundamental interest which may include readership, long time established branding, sustained popularity, historical significance, etc.

 

Much like the stock market has changed in the last decade, the comic scene has as well. I attribute it to low cost money with no place to go.

 

Algorithms are trying to predict human behavior in the stock market but what ends up happening is that once the human element is removed you remove human decision making and algorithms end up increasing volatility as we've seen lately. Swings happen quickly.

 

I'd argue that the same thing has happened in comics. The human element has been removed as people search for 'value' and this has caused volatility in areas that you never used to see it - and at lightening speed.

 

I said that Showcase #4 would never overtake AF #15 and it has. It defies logic to me but as Winston Churchill said: "In the end, there it is."

 

And why am I speaking up about it? I'm a dealer, I'll make my money no matter how a book is priced so I don't care. I know that many Showcase #4 owners may not like it as it may be great for you guys in the short term but long term, that sort of volatility can upset people and the last thing you want is people leaving the hobby en masse like we saw in the 90's.

 

And I don't care which books you own, nobody wants to see people leaving en masse because that isn't good for anyone.

[Ditch Fahrenheit]

 

btw -- as for producing data to back up a statement, watching high end sales closely for over ten to 20 years, and buying (and selling) some of these books for record amounts (in transactions that are not even n GPA) does give one a pretty good sense of the market for them.... sonny boy.

 

(couldn't resist.)

 

Yes, it sure does. Lots of people follow the markets for many years. This is a new market. Things are changing. I have a GPA membership and also have OSPGs. I follow the market as well by searching HA, CL and ComicConnect. I have a pulse on the market also.

 

That's why I asked for data. I didn't see any. If someone is so sure of themselves (enough to post it on a forum) to make a statement....why not be prepared to just provide some info when asked to back it up? And, if one doesn't want to share that information because they feel it is proprietary, then just say so rather than saying things like, I have nothing to prove to you...etc. It's just immature.

 

I'm a researcher. I don't take any answer for the gospel unless I do my homework on it and i'm convinced.

 

 

Mark,

 

I'm not trying to anger or upset you, but I don't think you're getting it.

 

Data acquistion on the high end of the market often comes with a high cost. Off-market transactions are common for obvious reasons. Reading OPG back-issues, subscribing to GPA, and watching auctions is only step one. Market makers sometimes spend years or even decades building trust with other market makers before data is shared. You're equating arrogance with a reluctance to give something away for free, and I think that's a bit unfair.

 

Asking for an opinion, getting it, and then demanding supporting data is equivalent to getting a free GPA lookup from GPA and then demanding the source code.

 

Right now you're doing a victory dance in front of the well you just pissed in. If you're truly looking for answers, I would recommend you stop doing this kind of thing. This may be the only well out in this part of the desert that you're exploring.

 

More than just sharing data, some of it is not out there to share. When markets are made, the only people who know how far that market is going to go is the people who will be doing the bidding.

 

But I do agree with squeggs. Who the heck knows anymore?

 

We're used to seeing logical increases based on fundamental interest which may include readership, long time established branding, sustained popularity, historical significance, etc.

 

Much like the stock market has changed in the last decade, the comic scene has as well. I attribute it to low cost money with no place to go.

 

Algorithms are trying to predict human behavior in the stock market but what ends up happening is that once the human element is removed you remove human decision making and algorithms end up increasing volatility as we've seen lately. Swings happen quickly.

 

I'd argue that the same thing has happened in comics. The human element has been removed as people search for 'value' and this has caused volatility in areas that you never used to see it - and at lightening speed.

 

I said that Showcase #4 would never overtake AF #15 and it has. It defies logic to me but as Winston Churchill said: "In the end, there it is."

 

And why am I speaking up about it? I'm a dealer, I'll make my money no matter how a book is priced so I don't care. I know that many Showcase #4 owners may not like it as it may be great for you guys in the short term but long term, that sort of volatility can upset people and the last thing you want is people leaving the hobby en masse like we saw in the 90's.

 

And I don't care which books you own, nobody wants to see people leaving en masse because that isn't good for anyone.

 

Yeah, we're in a new paradigm now. Sideline money moving in on hopes of higher returns coupled with a bright spotlight in popular culture has changed everything.

 

For example, ask any economist what constitutes full employment now. If they're worth their salt, they'll say they can only guess. Everything has changed: the markets, how people work, how employment is defined, retirement age, etc., etc.

[Mark 1]

At some point in time that I remember as a kid, SC4 was considered the top SA book above all else. Then AF15 took over and has maintained that spot for some time. Did people leave then when AF15 became out of reach for most collectors and the market got hot on movies/pop culture? I don't recall that happening but maybe it did.

 

Then, recently Hulk 1 had moved into the second spot with a great increase in price. I know some have said it's been increasing steady for a while but Hulk 1 took off in price last year (2015). GPA shows it pretty clearly in mid to lower grade sales. It practically doubled in price from the year prior.

 

One example CGC 6.5 Hulk 1

 

2014 Average - $13,700

2015 Average - $25,802

2016 sale - $30,200

 

Are we in for a fall with Hulk 1 due to this volatile market?

 

Now that SC4 has seemed to move into a top spot I just see it as another cycle of our hobby. It's considered the first SA book. The character is not as lame as some want to make him out to be and there is great interest from many in the upcoming movies.

 

I recently bought a whole bunch of flash books (and some other DCs) because of a combination of speculation and I just like them as well. The movies do spark my interest in them and I've enjoyed reading the comics for the first time. I had only read SC4 as a kid. I never read the Showcase/Flash run at all. It's been really fun to discover them as fresh stories.

 

I can see why some collectors would become disenchanted with the hobby because of the influx of new blood and volatility....but I don't view it that way as a collector. I'm glad for the increased visibility into pop culture and interest from fans. If I make the wrong choice to invest my money into SC4 or SC30, etc...lesson learned. I still enjoy owning them.

 

My personal prediction is we aren;t close to seeing some of the gains in the hobby. Books like TOS39 and X-Men 1 are still cheap compared to SC4, Hulk 1 and Af15. They have room to grow also just like many others.

 

I find it all really fun.

[BarryAllen]

 

btw -- as for producing data to back up a statement, watching high end sales closely for over ten to 20 years, and buying (and selling) some of these books for record amounts (in transactions that are not even n GPA) does give one a pretty good sense of the market for them.... sonny boy.

 

(couldn't resist.)

 

Yes, it sure does. Lots of people follow the markets for many years. This is a new market. Things are changing. I have a GPA membership and also have OSPGs. I follow the market as well by searching HA, CL and ComicConnect. I have a pulse on the market also.

 

That's why I asked for data. I didn't see any. If someone is so sure of themselves (enough to post it on a forum) to make a statement....why not be prepared to just provide some info when asked to back it up? And, if one doesn't want to share that information because they feel it is proprietary, then just say so rather than saying things like, I have nothing to prove to you...etc. It's just immature.

 

I'm a researcher. I don't take any answer for the gospel unless I do my homework on it and i'm convinced.

 

 

Mark,

 

I'm not trying to anger or upset you, but I don't think you're getting it.

 

Data acquistion on the high end of the market often comes with a high cost. Off-market transactions are common for obvious reasons. Reading OPG back-issues, subscribing to GPA, and watching auctions is only step one. Market makers sometimes spend years or even decades building trust with other market makers before data is shared. You're equating arrogance with a reluctance to give something away for free, and I think that's a bit unfair.

 

Asking for an opinion, getting it, and then demanding supporting data is equivalent to getting a free GPA lookup from GPA and then demanding the source code.

 

Right now you're doing a victory dance in front of the well you just pissed in. If you're truly looking for answers, I would recommend you stop doing this kind of thing. This may be the only well out in this part of the desert that you're exploring.

 

More than just sharing data, some of it is not out there to share. When markets are made, the only people who know how far that market is going to go is the people who will be doing the bidding.

 

But I do agree with squeggs. Who the heck knows anymore?

 

We're used to seeing logical increases based on fundamental interest which may include readership, long time established branding, sustained popularity, historical significance, etc.

 

Much like the stock market has changed in the last decade, the comic scene has as well. I attribute it to low cost money with no place to go.

 

Algorithms are trying to predict human behavior in the stock market but what ends up happening is that once the human element is removed you remove human decision making and algorithms end up increasing volatility as we've seen lately. Swings happen quickly.

 

I'd argue that the same thing has happened in comics. The human element has been removed as people search for 'value' and this has caused volatility in areas that you never used to see it - and at lightening speed.

 

I said that Showcase #4 would never overtake AF #15 and it has. It defies logic to me but as Winston Churchill said: "In the end, there it is."

 

And why am I speaking up about it? I'm a dealer, I'll make my money no matter how a book is priced so I don't care. I know that many Showcase #4 owners may not like it as it may be great for you guys in the short term but long term, that sort of volatility can upset people and the last thing you want is people leaving the hobby en masse like we saw in the 90's.

 

And I don't care which books you own, nobody wants to see people leaving en masse because that isn't good for anyone.

 

Yeah, we're in a new paradigm now. Sideline money moving in on hopes of higher returns coupled with a bright spotlight in popular culture has changed everything.

 

For example, ask any economist what constitutes full employment now. If they're worth their salt, they'll say they can only guess. Everything has changed: the markets, how people work, how employment is defined, retirement age, etc., etc.

 

IMHO - The retirement age is about to make a massive jump to close to 70 (if not there) in the not to distant future. Which will be unsustainable from a physical workforce standpoint and will compound a growing problem of underemployed seniors. They won't be able to draw from their retirement savings or social security without huge penalties but companies won't employ broadly...

 

Interesting times ahead.

[tth2]

I said that Showcase #4 would never overtake AF #15 and it has. It defies logic to me but as Winston Churchill said: "In the end, there it is."

When did this happen? You think SC 4 in 9.6, 9.4 and 9.2 would sell for more than AF 15 in comparable grades?

 

Similar to Hulk 1, I don`t see that happening.

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

And I don't care which books you own, nobody wants to see people leaving en masse because that isn't good for anyone.

 

Well....it's good for those who want to BUY books. But otherwise, not so much.

 

The vast bulk of my collection was assembled from 1999-2005-ish, when the market had some of its worst years ever, including some stunning Silver Age runs that were unavailable to me beforehand (like a complete run of Batman from #98-up.)

[Mark 1]

Have a great day RMA

 

 

[roulette44]

Hey guys. I love this conversation, because there is no right answer (at least not one that any one of us can know with 100% certainty). We can only speak in data-based predictive modeling and try (as much as we can) to leave personal biases.

 

Lots of factors determine price, we've hashed that one at length lately (except one boardie who continues to tell us pq doesn't matter ). But when it comes down to comparing these three books (af15, sc4, hulk1), I would offer this

 

1) the demand for AF15 is higher than the others by a wide margin. There are more spidey fans, period. More big spending ones, small spending ones, tall ones, short ones, fat ones, skinny ones, green-eggs-and-ham-eating ones. This means all else equal, af15 rules the day

 

2) from a rarity (supply) perspective, af15 is by far the most plentiful. Let's just focus on universal and sigseries copies on the cgc census as of now:

• AF 15 - 43 copies (8.0+), 1,748 copies (total)

• Hulk 1 - 32 copies (8.0+), 959 copies (total)

• SC 4 - 16 copies (8.0+), 244 copies (total)

 

These two facts on supply and demand alone tell us that if the books were of exactly the same demand (all loved, sought out equally) that showcase 4 would be most expensive, followed by hulk 1, and AF15 would be last. Moreover, the relationship should grow in the lower grades, since in 8.0+ there are 2.6 AF15s out there per SC4 but in total, there are 7.5 AF15s per SC4. That means supply of lower grades (below 8.0) is much much bigger.

 

BUT, we can't stop there, because a) individual grades matter, especially at the top of the census, and b) demand is not equal for the books (sure, there is a c), d),....q),.....aa), ...etc, but we can make the point here with a) and b)

 

a) at the uber highest grades, hulk starts to take over

• blue/yellow copies in 9.6: AF15 (3), SC 4 (1), Hulk 1 (0)

• blue/yellow copies in 9.4: AF15 (5), SC 4 (2), Hulk 1 (1)

• blue/yellow copies in 9.2: AF15 (2), SC 4 (2), Hulk 1 (4)

so this means that a 9.4 AF15 would have a very hard time beating a (the) hulk 1 9.4. In fact an AF15 9.6 could have trouble beating the Hulk 1 9.4

 

b) Demand isn't easy to peg, because demand for the character doesn't equate to demand for their first comic book appearance. And the more expensive the book gets. However I think we could prove fairly easily that spider-man has the biggest following by far. I think we'll argue over who is more popular hulk or flash, and while I would say it's hulk, I would also say that the flash is catching up on both hulk and spidey as the Grant Gustin show has really been the first to draw large crowds, while hulk has had far more attention over the years and spidey has had multiples more than that

 

Other points worth mentioning,

 

1) fact: that the smaller the census numbers we're focusing on are,, the more volatility we should expectz. Any one private sale may skew markets, one case of auction fever between two adversaries, one sale of a disproportionately nice or ugly copy for the grade, etc etc..

 

2) conjecture/partially data-based: as a % of total sales, more sc4 have been private than either of the two marvelers (not in absolute terms, mind you - just proportionately). I have sold about 15, 12, and 10 copies of AF15, Hulk 1 and SC4 respectively over the last 5 years or so, and exactly 2 af15s were public and therefore hit gpa, 3 hulks hit gpa, and 0 sc4s hit gpa. I'm sure others would have similar data, if we performed a survey of sorts

 

Why do I make these 2 extra points? To convey that much emphasis placed on gpa in isolation is a bit risky (though it's a great tool and should be used 100%), and that the last sale may not represent the best measure of true price, especially when the census numbers are lower.

 

And if you've made it this far, welcome to the end of the thought process - I'll now whip up my own estimates as to the market value of some of these books (all of which id love to own -- if I could afford it)

 

Market price guesses (hey, that's all they are, after all!)

 

AF15 cgc 9.6 - $725K-$800K

AF15 cgc 9.4 - $450K-$525K

AF15 cgc 9.2 - $225K-$300K

 

Hulk 1 cgc 9.4 - $850K-$1.1M

Hulk 1 cgc 9.2 - $350K-$425K

 

SC 4 cgc 9.6 - $650K-$775K

SC 4 cgc 9.4 - $375K-$450K

SC 4 cgc 9.2 - $225K-$300K

 

If we were to repeat this whole analysis but concentrate more on books between grades 6.0 and 8.0, we'd see so much more supply of AF15 and Hulk 1 over SC, and that's why I think we've seen recent sales where SC4 has been higher than ether of the other two books. Doesn't mean the next sale won't leapfrog back over SC4 but the point is that we can't just equate demand and price - we have to incorporate other factors.

 

If you feel like you benefit from reading this post, please donate $5 to your favorite charity.

 

[Mark 1]

Excellent analysis Joey.

 

I conduct predictive modeling all the time based on past data and this type of thoughtful post was just what I was seeking. Good stuff man!

 

The only thing I wonder is if putting AF15 9.6 under a million is correct since it's already been proven to sell at a 1.1 million. Unless you don;t think that will repeat itself should another come to market.

 

Again, thanks!

[Hulksdaddy1]

Hey guys. I love this conversation, because there is no right answer (at least not one that any one of us can know with 100% certainty). We can only speak in data-based predictive modeling and try (as much as we can) to leave personal biases.

 

Lots of factors determine price, we've hashed that one at length lately (except one boardie who continues to tell us pq doesn't matter ). But when it comes down to comparing these three books (af15, sc4, hulk1), I would offer this

 

1) the demand for AF15 is higher than the others by a wide margin. There are more spidey fans, period. More big spending ones, small spending ones, tall ones, short ones, fat ones, skinny ones, green-eggs-and-ham-eating ones. This means all else equal, af15 rules the day

 

2) from a rarity (supply) perspective, af15 is by far the most plentiful. Let's just focus on universal and sigseries copies on the cgc census as of now:

• AF 15 - 43 copies (8.0+), 1,748 copies (total)

• Hulk 1 - 32 copies (8.0+), 959 copies (total)

• SC 4 - 16 copies (8.0+), 244 copies (total)

 

These two facts on supply and demand alone tell us that if the books were of exactly the same demand (all loved, sought out equally) that showcase 4 would be most expensive, followed by hulk 1, and AF15 would be last. Moreover, the relationship should grow in the lower grades, since in 8.0+ there are 2.6 AF15s out there per SC4 but in total, there are 7.5 AF15s per SC4. That means supply of lower grades (below 8.0) is much much bigger.

 

BUT, we can't stop there, because a) individual grades matter, especially at the top of the census, and b) demand is not equal for the books (sure, there is a c), d),....q),.....aa), ...etc, but we can make the point here with a) and b)

 

a) at the uber highest grades, hulk starts to take over

• blue/yellow copies in 9.6: AF15 (3), SC 4 (1), Hulk 1 (0)

• blue/yellow copies in 9.4: AF15 (5), SC 4 (2), Hulk 1 (1)

• blue/yellow copies in 9.2: AF15 (2), SC 4 (2), Hulk 1 (4)

so this means that a 9.4 AF15 would have a very hard time beating a (the) hulk 1 9.4. In fact an AF15 9.6 could have trouble beating the Hulk 1 9.4

 

b) Demand isn't easy to peg, because demand for the character doesn't equate to demand for their first comic book appearance. And the more expensive the book gets. However I think we could prove fairly easily that spider-man has the biggest following by far. I think we'll argue over who is more popular hulk or flash, and while I would say it's hulk, I would also say that the flash is catching up on both hulk and spidey as the Grant Gustin show has really been the first to draw large crowds, while hulk has had far more attention over the years and spidey has had multiples more than that

 

Other points worth mentioning,

 

1) fact: that the smaller the census numbers we're focusing on are,, the more volatility we should expectz. Any one private sale may skew markets, one case of auction fever between two adversaries, one sale of a disproportionately nice or ugly copy for the grade, etc etc..

 

2) conjecture/partially data-based: as a % of total sales, more sc4 have been private than either of the two marvelers (not in absolute terms, mind you - just proportionately). I have sold about 15, 12, and 10 copies of AF15, Hulk 1 and SC4 respectively over the last 5 years or so, and exactly 2 af15s were public and therefore hit gpa, 3 hulks hit gpa, and 0 sc4s hit gpa. I'm sure others would have similar data, if we performed a survey of sorts

 

Why do I make these 2 extra points? To convey that much emphasis placed on gpa in isolation is a bit risky (though it's a great tool and should be used 100%), and that the last sale may not represent the best measure of true price, especially when the census numbers are lower.

 

And if you've made it this far, welcome to the end of the thought process - I'll now whip up my own estimates as to the market value of some of these books (all of which id love to own -- if I could afford it)

 

Market price guesses (hey, that's all they are, after all!)

 

AF15 cgc 9.6 - $725K-$800K

AF15 cgc 9.4 - $450K-$525K

AF15 cgc 9.2 - $225K-$300K

 

Hulk 1 cgc 9.4 - $850K-$1.1M

Hulk 1 cgc 9.2 - $350K-$425K

 

SC 4 cgc 9.6 - $650K-$775K

SC 4 cgc 9.4 - $375K-$450K

SC 4 cgc 9.2 - $225K-$300K

 

If we were to repeat this whole analysis but concentrate more on books between grades 6.0 and 8.0, we'd see so much more supply of AF15 and Hulk 1 over SC, and that's why I think we've seen recent sales where SC4 has been higher than ether of the other two books. Doesn't mean the next sale won't leapfrog back over SC4 but the point is that we can't just equate demand and price - we have to incorporate other factors.

 

If you feel like you benefit from reading this post, please donate $5 to your favorite charity.

 

 

Cliff Notes version:

 

Something is only worth what someone will pay for it.

 

[roulette44]

Hey guys. I love this conversation, because there is no right answer (at least not one that any one of us can know with 100% certainty). We can only speak in data-based predictive modeling and try (as much as we can) to leave personal biases.

 

Lots of factors determine price, we've hashed that one at length lately (except one boardie who continues to tell us pq doesn't matter ). But when it comes down to comparing these three books (af15, sc4, hulk1), I would offer this

 

1) the demand for AF15 is higher than the others by a wide margin. There are more spidey fans, period. More big spending ones, small spending ones, tall ones, short ones, fat ones, skinny ones, green-eggs-and-ham-eating ones. This means all else equal, af15 rules the day

 

2) from a rarity (supply) perspective, af15 is by far the most plentiful. Let's just focus on universal and sigseries copies on the cgc census as of now:

• AF 15 - 43 copies (8.0+), 1,748 copies (total)

• Hulk 1 - 32 copies (8.0+), 959 copies (total)

• SC 4 - 16 copies (8.0+), 244 copies (total)

 

These two facts on supply and demand alone tell us that if the books were of exactly the same demand (all loved, sought out equally) that showcase 4 would be most expensive, followed by hulk 1, and AF15 would be last. Moreover, the relationship should grow in the lower grades, since in 8.0+ there are 2.6 AF15s out there per SC4 but in total, there are 7.5 AF15s per SC4. That means supply of lower grades (below 8.0) is much much bigger.

 

BUT, we can't stop there, because a) individual grades matter, especially at the top of the census, and b) demand is not equal for the books (sure, there is a c), d),....q),.....aa), ...etc, but we can make the point here with a) and b)

 

a) at the uber highest grades, hulk starts to take over

• blue/yellow copies in 9.6: AF15 (3), SC 4 (1), Hulk 1 (0)

• blue/yellow copies in 9.4: AF15 (5), SC 4 (2), Hulk 1 (1)

• blue/yellow copies in 9.2: AF15 (2), SC 4 (2), Hulk 1 (4)

so this means that a 9.4 AF15 would have a very hard time beating a (the) hulk 1 9.4. In fact an AF15 9.6 could have trouble beating the Hulk 1 9.4

 

b) Demand isn't easy to peg, because demand for the character doesn't equate to demand for their first comic book appearance. And the more expensive the book gets. However I think we could prove fairly easily that spider-man has the biggest following by far. I think we'll argue over who is more popular hulk or flash, and while I would say it's hulk, I would also say that the flash is catching up on both hulk and spidey as the Grant Gustin show has really been the first to draw large crowds, while hulk has had far more attention over the years and spidey has had multiples more than that

 

Other points worth mentioning,

 

1) fact: that the smaller the census numbers we're focusing on are,, the more volatility we should expectz. Any one private sale may skew markets, one case of auction fever between two adversaries, one sale of a disproportionately nice or ugly copy for the grade, etc etc..

 

2) conjecture/partially data-based: as a % of total sales, more sc4 have been private than either of the two marvelers (not in absolute terms, mind you - just proportionately). I have sold about 15, 12, and 10 copies of AF15, Hulk 1 and SC4 respectively over the last 5 years or so, and exactly 2 af15s were public and therefore hit gpa, 3 hulks hit gpa, and 0 sc4s hit gpa. I'm sure others would have similar data, if we performed a survey of sorts

 

Why do I make these 2 extra points? To convey that much emphasis placed on gpa in isolation is a bit risky (though it's a great tool and should be used 100%), and that the last sale may not represent the best measure of true price, especially when the census numbers are lower.

 

And if you've made it this far, welcome to the end of the thought process - I'll now whip up my own estimates as to the market value of some of these books (all of which id love to own -- if I could afford it)

 

Market price guesses (hey, that's all they are, after all!)

 

AF15 cgc 9.6 - $725K-$800K

AF15 cgc 9.4 - $450K-$525K

AF15 cgc 9.2 - $225K-$300K

 

Hulk 1 cgc 9.4 - $850K-$1.1M

Hulk 1 cgc 9.2 - $350K-$425K

 

SC 4 cgc 9.6 - $650K-$775K

SC 4 cgc 9.4 - $375K-$450K

SC 4 cgc 9.2 - $225K-$300K

 

If we were to repeat this whole analysis but concentrate more on books between grades 6.0 and 8.0, we'd see so much more supply of AF15 and Hulk 1 over SC, and that's why I think we've seen recent sales where SC4 has been higher than ether of the other two books. Doesn't mean the next sale won't leapfrog back over SC4 but the point is that we can't just equate demand and price - we have to incorporate other factors.

 

If you feel like you benefit from reading this post, please donate $5 to your favorite charity.

 

 

Cliff Notes version:

 

Something is only worth what someone will pay for it.

 

 

totally!!! My dad always called it the greater insufficiently_thoughtful_person theory....

 

Thanks Marc, appreciate it man. And good point about the AF15. My rationale is that when the $1.1m sale occurred, that 9.6 was the sole highest graded copy. Now that two more have surfaced it could affect the price (I also know where one of the three is).

 

But put two BSDs in a room together with one at auction. -- could do $1.5M easy.

 

[Sam I am]

Hey guys. I love this conversation, because there is no right answer (at least not one that any one of us can know with 100% certainty). We can only speak in data-based predictive modeling and try (as much as we can) to leave personal biases.

 

Lots of factors determine price, we've hashed that one at length lately (except one boardie who continues to tell us pq doesn't matter ). But when it comes down to comparing these three books (af15, sc4, hulk1), I would offer this

 

1) the demand for AF15 is higher than the others by a wide margin. There are more spidey fans, period. More big spending ones, small spending ones, tall ones, short ones, fat ones, skinny ones, green-eggs-and-ham-eating ones. This means all else equal, af15 rules the day

 

2) from a rarity (supply) perspective, af15 is by far the most plentiful. Let's just focus on universal and sigseries copies on the cgc census as of now:

• AF 15 - 43 copies (8.0+), 1,748 copies (total)

• Hulk 1 - 32 copies (8.0+), 959 copies (total)

• SC 4 - 16 copies (8.0+), 244 copies (total)

 

These two facts on supply and demand alone tell us that if the books were of exactly the same demand (all loved, sought out equally) that showcase 4 would be most expensive, followed by hulk 1, and AF15 would be last. Moreover, the relationship should grow in the lower grades, since in 8.0+ there are 2.6 AF15s out there per SC4 but in total, there are 7.5 AF15s per SC4. That means supply of lower grades (below 8.0) is much much bigger.

 

BUT, we can't stop there, because a) individual grades matter, especially at the top of the census, and b) demand is not equal for the books (sure, there is a c), d),....q),.....aa), ...etc, but we can make the point here with a) and b)

 

a) at the uber highest grades, hulk starts to take over

• blue/yellow copies in 9.6: AF15 (3), SC 4 (1), Hulk 1 (0)

• blue/yellow copies in 9.4: AF15 (5), SC 4 (2), Hulk 1 (1)

• blue/yellow copies in 9.2: AF15 (2), SC 4 (2), Hulk 1 (4)

so this means that a 9.4 AF15 would have a very hard time beating a (the) hulk 1 9.4. In fact an AF15 9.6 could have trouble beating the Hulk 1 9.4

 

b) Demand isn't easy to peg, because demand for the character doesn't equate to demand for their first comic book appearance. And the more expensive the book gets. However I think we could prove fairly easily that spider-man has the biggest following by far. I think we'll argue over who is more popular hulk or flash, and while I would say it's hulk, I would also say that the flash is catching up on both hulk and spidey as the Grant Gustin show has really been the first to draw large crowds, while hulk has had far more attention over the years and spidey has had multiples more than that

 

Other points worth mentioning,

 

1) fact: that the smaller the census numbers we're focusing on are,, the more volatility we should expectz. Any one private sale may skew markets, one case of auction fever between two adversaries, one sale of a disproportionately nice or ugly copy for the grade, etc etc..

 

2) conjecture/partially data-based: as a % of total sales, more sc4 have been private than either of the two marvelers (not in absolute terms, mind you - just proportionately). I have sold about 15, 12, and 10 copies of AF15, Hulk 1 and SC4 respectively over the last 5 years or so, and exactly 2 af15s were public and therefore hit gpa, 3 hulks hit gpa, and 0 sc4s hit gpa. I'm sure others would have similar data, if we performed a survey of sorts

 

Why do I make these 2 extra points? To convey that much emphasis placed on gpa in isolation is a bit risky (though it's a great tool and should be used 100%), and that the last sale may not represent the best measure of true price, especially when the census numbers are lower.

 

And if you've made it this far, welcome to the end of the thought process - I'll now whip up my own estimates as to the market value of some of these books (all of which id love to own -- if I could afford it)

 

Market price guesses (hey, that's all they are, after all!)

 

AF15 cgc 9.6 - $725K-$800K

AF15 cgc 9.4 - $450K-$525K

AF15 cgc 9.2 - $225K-$300K

 

Hulk 1 cgc 9.4 - $850K-$1.1M

Hulk 1 cgc 9.2 - $350K-$425K

 

SC 4 cgc 9.6 - $650K-$775K

SC 4 cgc 9.4 - $375K-$450K

SC 4 cgc 9.2 - $225K-$300K

 

If we were to repeat this whole analysis but concentrate more on books between grades 6.0 and 8.0, we'd see so much more supply of AF15 and Hulk 1 over SC, and that's why I think we've seen recent sales where SC4 has been higher than ether of the other two books. Doesn't mean the next sale won't leapfrog back over SC4 but the point is that we can't just equate demand and price - we have to incorporate other factors.

 

If you feel like you benefit from reading this post, please donate $5 to your favorite charity.

 

 

Cliff Notes version:

 

Something is only worth what someone will pay for it.

 

 

Cliff notes for the cliff notes : Something is always worth more when 2 or more people want to own it at the same time.

[Rip]

Excellent analysis Joey.

 

I conduct predictive modeling all the time based on past data and this type of thoughtful post was just what I was seeking. Good stuff man!

 

The only thing I wonder is if putting AF15 9.6 under a million is correct since it's already been proven to sell at a 1.1 million. Unless you don;t think that will repeat itself should another come to market.

 

Again, thanks!

 

I really doubt AF 15 9.6 would sell for a million+ again. At least not in the current market. I would guess its around a 850K book

[NewWorldOrder]

Excellent analysis Joey.

 

I conduct predictive modeling all the time based on past data and this type of thoughtful post was just what I was seeking. Good stuff man!

 

The only thing I wonder is if putting AF15 9.6 under a million is correct since it's already been proven to sell at a 1.1 million. Unless you don;t think that will repeat itself should another come to market.

 

Again, thanks!

 

I really doubt AF 15 9.6 would sell for a million+ again. At least not in the current market. I would guess its around a 850K book

 

IMO yes it would very easily.

 

Only a dumb arse would put that book up for auction.

 

Private sale up with on a auction side with a fixed priced and make an offer.

[VintageComics]

I said that Showcase #4 would never overtake AF #15 and it has. It defies logic to me but as Winston Churchill said: "In the end, there it is."

When did this happen? You think SC 4 in 9.6, 9.4 and 9.2 would sell for more than AF 15 in comparable grades?

 

Similar to Hulk 1, I don`t see that happening.

 

My post was specifically talking about books below the NM range but I forgot to say it.

 

I don't think SC #4 will be a million dollar book before Hulk #1 is (and AF #15 already is).

 

 

[VintageComics]

I really doubt AF 15 9.6 would sell for a million+ again. At least not in the current market. I would guess its around a 850K book

 

At this moment in time, maybe not.

 

But we see this over and over. The first one hits a record and then follow up books plateau a bit until the market catches up.

 

Often when people are 'analyzing' the market they don't factor in time. I make that mistake all the time. Like when I sold my restored Whiz #1 thinking I'd find another cheap unrestored copy relatively easily. 4 years later I don't have a copy.

[VintageComics]

At some point in time that I remember as a kid, SC4 was considered the top SA book above all else. Then AF15 took over and has maintained that spot for some time. Did people leave then when AF15 became out of reach for most collectors and the market got hot on movies/pop culture? I don't recall that happening but maybe it did.

 

The Guide is a lagging indicator. By the time the Guide has changed the market has already been established. Especially back in the 70's when a Rolodex and an abacus were accounting instruments.

 

I too remember SC #4 being the start of the Silver Age. The question is were people paying big money to own one? I wanted one but didn't have the money at the time. If you ask any dealer who has been dealing for over 20-30 years they all seem to agree that it was a relatively slow book to move.

 

Then again , so were pre Robin Tecs.

 

I remember having a conversation with a dealer and agreeing that in the early 2000's GA was dead.

 

There is a difference between what the Guide prices a book at and what the market is doing. If you disagree, try selling your moderns at Guide prices while dealers pick them up for pennies on the dollar.

 

Then, recently Hulk 1 had moved into the second spot with a great increase in price. I know some have said it's been increasing steady for a while but Hulk 1 took off in price last year (2015). GPA shows it pretty clearly in mid to lower grade sales. It practically doubled in price from the year prior.

 

One example CGC 6.5 Hulk 1

 

2014 Average - $13,700

2015 Average - $25,802

2016 sale - $30,200

 

Again, you are looking at numbers on a page but the market says something completely different. Hulk #1 began to move in the summer of 2014 - a year earlier than you are stating.

 

Metro sold the 9.2 for $300K+ after a copy had not hit the market for a long time. Does this mean that Hulk #1 surprised everybody?

 

There had not been a 9.2 copy on the market for nearly half a decade before that. Meanwhile keys all over the place were climbing in value. AF #15, BB #28 (SC #4) etc. were all climbing.

 

The problem with making a market is that nobody wants to be the first to pay the big number, but once someone does everyone is much more relaxed about doing it.

 

Once the 9.2 sale happened the market moved for all lower grade copies.

 

In my opinion it should have moved sooner but that 9.2 sale instilled confidence for the rest of the market to make the move in lower grades.

 

The same thing happened when the X-men #1 CGC 9.4 sold in the Mound City auction in Nov 2009. Everyone was shocked that an X-men #1 sold for $100K+, meanwhile I knew it was a $100K book going into the auction. Someone just needed to pay the price.

 

When BB #28 broke $30K in 9.0 everyone was surprised. To me it just made common sense since it was a tough key, an important key and other comparables were also in that price range.

 

If you want to analyze a fluid market it takes an analysis of time, not just numbers on a page or a GPA screen shot of one grade.

 

Now that SC4 has seemed to move into a top spot I just see it as another cycle of our hobby. It's considered the first SA book. The character is not as lame as some want to make him out to be and there is great interest from many in the upcoming movies.

 

Showcase #4 is not in top spot yet. So far we only have two very expensive SC #4 sales.

 

Time will tell whether it's moved back into top spot or not.

 

[Rip]

Agreed. Wasn't there also a private sale of a AF 15 9.6 for going less than a million after the Metropolis sale?

 

 

[StuporMan]

Waiting for the owner of this SC CBCS 9.8 to post in the "Showcase #4 Club" thread

[G.A.tor]

Agreed. Wasn't there also a private sale of a AF 15 9.6 for going less than a million after the Metropolis sale?

 

yes...considerably less than the metro sale