Heritage April Auction 6 6

[Latverian Tourism Board]

On 2/22/2022 at 2:04 PM, vodou said:

I'm amazed at what people are selling. I mean, really, for silly, stupid money?

I don't get it (and I'm not being sarcastic).

If you're in need money that bad (it happens), pick up extra hours or add a third job on the weekends? Seriously.

Things are being sold that should never be sold. Ever.

Shhhhh 🤫

Don’t interrupt the competition while they’re making a mistake. 

[cstojano]

On 2/22/2022 at 12:04 PM, vodou said:

I'm amazed at what people are selling. I mean, really, for silly, stupid money?

I don't get it (and I'm not being sarcastic).

If you're in need money that bad (it happens), pick up extra hours or add a third job on the weekends? Seriously.

Things are being sold that should never be sold. Ever.

I know you won't say but boy am I curious about which lots you are referring to.

I am wondering how the black spiderman consignors will feel if the results underperform. I am reminded of the movie Margin Call where the head banker states the importance of being first (not smarter) than the next guy.

Edited February 22, 2022 by cstojano

[vodou]

On 2/22/2022 at 3:58 PM, cstojano said:

I am reminded of the movie Margin Call where the head banker states the importance of being first (not smarter) than the next guy.

Margin Call is very educational. So too Boiler Room.

An old example of what I'm referring to: ASM 238 cover that sold a while back (5, 6 years ago?) at CLink.

That shouldn't have happened, plain and simple.

[Rick2you2]

On 2/22/2022 at 1:48 PM, Bronty said:

Right, but the market always seems to show up with the money when vendors show up with the goods.

Every time I think there is more available than can be absorbed, I'm always wrong, going back many many years.

I understand what you mean, but if other collectibles have shown a drop, even if temporary, why not this one? Then, there is the question of all or part of the market. Will Bronze Age boom and Silver Age slip? Does the increase in Boomer retirements herald a slowdown in 1960’s work? 

[Rick2you2]

On 2/22/2022 at 4:22 PM, vodou said:

Margin Call is very educational. So too Boiler Room.

An old example of what I'm referring to: ASM 238 cover that sold a while back (5, 6 years ago?) at CLink.

That shouldn't have happened, plain and simple.

Why? Are you valuing the art based on perceived quality vs. price as a function of demand at a given point in time, or is there an interesting backstory there?

[Bronty]

On 2/22/2022 at 5:50 PM, Rick2you2 said:

I understand what you mean, but if other collectibles have shown a drop, even if temporary, why not this one? Then, there is the question of all or part of the market. Will Bronze Age boom and Silver Age slip? Does the increase in Boomer retirements herald a slowdown in 1960’s work? 

Other collectibles have seemed steady overall, at least the stuff I keep tabs on.    Some might be up a bit or down a bit, but nothing too crazy.. pretty steady from what I can see in the last three months.     Obviously, if you go back further in time its a different answer but the point is that I don't really see anything recent in one direction or the other.   If anything things have felt slightly up to me.

[Rick2you2]

On 2/22/2022 at 6:02 PM, Bronty said:

Other collectibles have seemed steady overall, at least the stuff I keep tabs on.    Some might be up a bit or down a bit, but nothing too crazy.. pretty steady from what I can see in the last three months.     Obviously, if you go back further in time its a different answer but the point is that I don't really see anything recent in one direction or the other.   If anything things have felt slightly up to me.

I was under the impression that baseball cards have taken a hit.

[vodou]

On 2/22/2022 at 5:53 PM, Rick2you2 said:

Why?

For certain objects price morphs into priceless.

That process is taking place in comic art; ASM 238 is just an example. There are others in the recent past and present.

This process is not done yet, not by far, but people sitting on obvious (and not so obvious) major pieces might re-think consigning under the assumption they can easily replace with similar quality at any time, by writing a check.

That opportunity is going to disappear sooner than most think.

[Rick2you2]

On 2/22/2022 at 7:15 PM, vodou said:

For certain objects price morphs into priceless.

That process is taking place in comic art; ASM 238 is just an example. There are others in the recent past and present.

This process is not done yet, not by far, but people sitting on obvious (and not so obvious) major pieces might re-think consigning under the assumption they can easily replace with similar quality at any time, by writing a check.

That opportunity is going to disappear sooner than most think.

Hmmm… Then, I think we may see a different set of rules on pricing. A lot of OA enjoys a high price not just for what it is but because of the background story to the piece—characters, first appearances, great runs, etc. When I think of priceless, I think of something that transcends the ordinary into universal.  To me, ASM 238 doesn’t do that because it’s appeal is limited by content and knowledge of the backstories. Really nice cover, but not priceless. To be priceless, there shouldn’t be a need to know backstories. I expect the “priceless” category to hold things like GL/GA 85. You don’t need to know the characters to know shooting up in front of superheroes is special.

[Bronty]

On 2/22/2022 at 7:59 PM, Rick2you2 said:

Hmmm… Then, I think we may see a different set of rules on pricing. A lot of OA enjoys a high price not just for what it is but because of the background story to the piece—characters, first appearances, great runs, etc. When I think of priceless, I think of something that transcends the ordinary into universal.  To me, ASM 238 doesn’t do that because it’s appeal is limited by content and knowledge of the backstories. Really nice cover, but not priceless. To be priceless, there shouldn’t be a need to know backstories. I expect the “priceless” category to hold things like GL/GA 85. You don’t need to know the characters to know shooting up in front of superheroes is special.

And a secret wars 8 panel is?

special is different things to different people.   Your shooting up example is only interesting because it hadn’t happened before.   It also requires knowledge of the history.  

Edited February 23, 2022 by Bronty

[Bronty]

I find the whole “transcends” thing, whenever and wherever used to be a baloney sandwich.    There’s supply and demand, that’s it.  
 

If there’s demand for cheesy art, then it’s cheesy art that transcends.

Edited February 23, 2022 by Bronty

[vodou]

On 2/22/2022 at 7:59 PM, Rick2you2 said:

To be priceless, there shouldn’t be a need to know backstories.

If you don't get it, I can't explain it to you. I'm fine with that.

[Bronty]

On 2/22/2022 at 6:22 PM, Rick2you2 said:

I was under the impression that baseball cards have taken a hit.

My understanding is sports cards dipped like 9 months ago, but are still astronomical.   MTG is up.   Comics / comic art up.    Video games hit a peak in July, dipped in September, rebounded nicely in Dec/Jan.    Hard to find anything, at least that I track, that isn't doing OK to great.   A friggin spiderman non-sports card sold for 250k or something the other day.  

[Rick2you2]

On 2/22/2022 at 8:04 PM, Bronty said:

And a secret wars 8 panel is?

special is different things to different people.   Your shooting up example is only interesting because it hadn’t happened before.   It also requires knowledge of the history.  

I'm not the one who picked this concept. Voudou seems to think that some stuff shouldn't be sold because it cannot be easily replaced, if at all. 

I do think, however, that the effective market price on our "masterpieces" is limited because a lengthy backstory is often needed to explain the significance. Yes, shooting up requires some history, but not much. Smack and a sidekick says it all. You also don't need a lot of backstory to appreciate Guernica. Another example would be the ECC cover depicting the Klan. You don't need to know much to get it. If OA is to find a wider market at the high end among people who might care about the details, it is likely to be these kinds of pieces which lead the way, not the first appearance of Mr. Superduper, a third rate villain who sometimes fights a second rate hero. But some art, like the Rocketeer and Betty, don't need a back-story to love. Same with some old Black Cat Mystery covers. 

With that said, I agree with you that there really isn't anything "priceless" which justifies keeping--except for nostalgia reasons or something personal that resonates.

[delekkerste]

On 2/22/2022 at 10:37 PM, Bronty said:

My understanding is sports cards dipped like 9 months ago, but are still astronomical. 

The overall sports card market peaked in Feb/Mar 2021 and the "average" card is probably down 40-50% since then. 

But the top 0.1% of cards is still making new highs and is at stratospheric levels. Marvel PMG cards are on fire now and hitting absurd levels; Formula 1 cards and low pop vintage soccer cards have done well due to constrained supply, and the rarest modern numbered parallels across sports continue to fetch stupid money prices.  The 2020 Bowman Jasson Dominiguez Chrome Prospects #1/1 superfractor sold for $474K the other week...he has played one season of single-A minor league baseball (where he hit 5 home runs and batted .252).

Speculation at the ultra high end is alive and well, even as high pop modern cards have generally plummeted in value over the past year. The thing is, even though prices were clearly stupid and unsustainable then, and it didn't take a rocket scientist to see how much supply was out there (and would continue to grow as PSA worked through their 8-figure backlog of cards to grade), almost no one saw prices coming down like they have.  A secondary 2004 Lionel Messi rookie going from $8K to $60K in a matter of months?  Perfectly normal! (it's now back down to sub-$20K). 

Edited February 23, 2022 by delekkerste

[Bronty]

Sure, the more stratospheric the rise the more susceptible to a fall back down.    But to bring this back around to comics/comic art, from what I've seen most comics/comic art never did the 20x thing that cards did; they might be up 2x... but they don't need to fall from 20x to 4x because despite what collectors who only collect comics might think, it hasn't gotten as batshyt crazy in comics as in other markets.     So, I don't see a plummet along Rick2you's comments because the prices didn't go supernova in the first place.

[delekkerste]

On 2/23/2022 at 9:57 AM, Bronty said:

Sure, the more stratospheric the rise the more susceptible to a fall back down.    But to bring this back around to comics/comic art, from what I've seen most comics/comic art never did the 20x thing that cards did; they might be up 2x... but they don't need to fall from 20x to 4x because despite what collectors who only collect comics might think, it hasn't gotten as batshyt crazy in comics as in other markets.     So, I don't see a plummet along Rick2you's comments because the prices didn't go supernova in the first place.

I don't know if I agree with that...cards went supernova in part because they were starting from a much lower base than comics and comic art (excluding the top 0.001% of cards that grab 99.999% of all the headlines). Remember, pre-pandemic, comic book movies had ruled pop culture and the box office for over a decade, and the feeling was that comics were far more relevant/important than cards, which were largely viewed as past their sell-by date.  Furthermore, there was also the feeling that, in the hands of Disney and Time Warner, comic book characters were evergreen properties, while all but a handful of sports card subjects had a limited shelf life. 

So, comic art may have "only" gone up 2-3x the past few years, but, they had already done very, very, very well prior to that, whereas a lot of the sports cards that have done the best the past couple of years were largely stuck in the 3 and 4 figure range.  Hell, some of the sports cards that are 5 figures today were only TWO figures pre-pandemic.  

Edited February 23, 2022 by delekkerste

[Bronty]

On 2/23/2022 at 10:15 AM, delekkerste said:

I don't know if I agree with that...cards went supernova in part because they were starting from a much lower base than comics and comic art (excluding the top 0.001% of cards that grab 99.999% of all the headlines). Remember, pre-pandemic, comic book movies had ruled pop culture and the box office for over a decade, and the feeling was that comics were far more relevant/important than cards, which were largely viewed as past their sell-by date.  Furthermore, there was also the feeling that, in the hands of Disney and Time Warner, comic book characters were evergreen properties, while all but a handful of sports card subjects had a limited shelf life. 

So, comic art may have "only" gone up 2-3x the past few years, but, they had already done very, very, very well prior to that, whereas a lot of the sports cards that have done the best the past couple of years were largely stuck in the 3 and 4 figure range.  Hell, some of the sports cards that are 5 figures today were only TWO figures pre-pandemic.  

Yeah, I guess that's the billion dollar question.   Do the relative hobby valuations pre pandemic or post pandemic make more sense?    I think either side can be argued.   

[Mephisto]

On 2/23/2022 at 10:22 AM, Bronty said:

Yeah, I guess that's the billion dollar question.   Do the relative hobby valuations pre pandemic or post pandemic make more sense?    I think either side can be argued.   

Come on Bronty not like there are any movies for MTG. 

[tth2]

I just read on ESPN that a 1997-98 Metal Universe Precious Metal Gems Emerald (I'm not making that up) Kobe Bryant card just sold privately for $2m.