Heritage June Auction 7 7

[Humpty-Dumpty]

On 6/17/2022 at 6:21 AM, delekkerste said:

There are a multitude of reasons, with technology/communications and globalization certainly resulting in larger and faster movements of capital than ever before (as Bronty alluded to).

That said, I think the biggest reason is very clear:  a serial blowing of asset bubbles by the central banks. They allowed the '90s tech bubble to inflate more or less unabated and flooded the world with liquidity pre-Y2K. When that bubble burst, they very explicitly set out to inflate a housing bubble to patch over the gaping hole in the economy and consumers' balance sheets. And when that inevitably ended in tears, they very explicitly set out to repair peoples' balance sheets again by inflating a stock market bubble through zero-interest rate policy and quantitative easing (money printing).

And, in doing so, they got the market and economy so addicted to a constant drip of monetary heroin (stimulus) that every little wobble in the markets was met with more stimulus, from the original "taper tantrum" in 2013 to the Fed folding its rate normalization plan at the end of 2018 in the face of falling stock prices, to the short-term financing (repo) market simply not working anymore by the fall of 2019, at which point the Fed was forced to re-start the printing press just to keep the heroin-addicted market from going into withdrawal. And then of course what happened in 2020-21...

Most people have no idea just how structurally unhealthy and overvalued the markets had gotten as a result of all of these shenanigans. And now we are paying the price yet again. I know we were starting out from sky-high levels, but, when you blow a $16 trillion (let's not forget the $2 trillion lost in crypto as well as the stocks + bonds shown above) hole in peoples' portfolios in a matter of months, it's going to have an effect, even if many people are better off (for now, anyway) than they were a couple of years ago.

I know it's certainly impacting my OA buying - I have quietly been a fairly busy buyer this year and was buying actively as recently as the ComicConnect sale a week or two ago. But this week's collapse in stock & crypto markets was the tipping point for me and I sat out this Heritage sale entirely and plan to wait on the sidelines here.

Just about every collectible is wildly overvalued.at this point in time. As you mentioned Gene, there has been way to much money printed in the last 14 years. The Untied States can never repay its debt to the Fed central bank, a bank in which the Untied States actually has only a small minority share in, and whose charter is to keep people employed and maintain the stability of the dollar. Currently they are failing in the former, and have overseen the erosion of the dollars value to the tune of 97% since 1913. So obviously they have failed spectacularly in the latter. We can not continue as a country of debtors. The current real inflation rate is closer to 20% then the phony 8% they are putting out there. We are heading into (or may be already in) not only a recession but maybe even a depression. And no, the central bank can not do anything to prevent it this time. And they know it. They have taken this economy past the point of no return. The dollar is already on the way to losing it's reserve currency status, which is about the only thing that is preventing us from free falling. It is clear that the days of the dollars reign are coming to an end. I feel sorry for people that have purchased collectibles in the last 1.5 years or so thinking they have a long term blue chip investment. Maybe some of the best of the best collectibles will whether the storm, but around 90%, 95% of what is out there will not fare well. The collectibles market across the board is going to not just soften, but probably crash in the next 6 to 16 months. Many of the prices realized at auction have no real core under lying basis. This economic system has been shaky since the late 90's and has been on life support since 2008. This current economic system itself is not sustainable, and I fully expect a non fed bank, government printed currency, asset backed system to return to America, probably beginning sometime in late 2023 or early mid 2024, with the transition taking place maybe over 6 months to a years time(?). 

Edited June 17, 2022 by Humpty-Dumpty
spelling

[Brian Peck]

On 6/17/2022 at 4:15 AM, drdonaldblake1 said:

Another incredible price.......a record for a recreation?

Nope the over sized SS#1 went for more. Both commissioned by the same collector.

[Humpty-Dumpty]

On 6/17/2022 at 4:51 AM, delekkerste said:

We are in the midst of the greatest destruction of wealth of all-time. In fact, we're already at a record level, and it's not even close.

The saving grace, though, is that we started this decline from the most absurdly overvalued levels ever, so that even with this drawdown most people are still better off than a couple of years ago (in some cases, still a lot better off, hence the strong auction prices). I remember at one point last year that Tesla alone - one single company - had gained more market cap than the entire dot-com sector was worth at its peak in 1999 (and was by itself worth multiples of the entire dot-com sector, as were a good number of tech companies). So anyone just looking at ratios can take a step back and.(Tom Cruise Tropic Thunder reference here). 

My read on this auction so far is that prices are still very strong, and there have been some positively bewildering headscratchers to the upside. That said, perhaps a little more than the usual number of lots have slipped through the cracks, and of course the star lot underperformed most peoples' lofty expectations, including mine. And, there was so much similar material from the complete and near-complete books that were sold that there were definitely some decent buys there.

I think the acid test will be the next couple of auction cycles if stock/bond/crypto markets remain very depressed (and if the weakness spreads to real estate, art, & other collectibles, pockets of which are already under pressure). I wasn't expecting to see much weakness in this auction cycle, as people have had many weeks to fixate on things they wanted (plus the quality of offerings has been very high), and it's only been in the last couple of weeks that the bottom has really fallen out of markets (it takes a while for the new reality to set in).  

FWIW, some of my comic book friends tell me there has been more than the usual amount of softness in the market recently - not just at HA yesterday, but, also in other (very) recent sales. Exceptions obviously apply, of course.

This chart is not inflation adjusted, I don't think.. Still, yeah, it's happening.

[vodou]

[Peter G]

On 6/17/2022 at 1:17 PM, Humpty-Dumpty said:

Just about every collectible is wildly overvalued.at this point in time. As you mentioned Gene, there has been way to much money printed in the last 14 years. The Untied States can never repay its debt to the Fed central bank, a bank in which the Untied States actually has only a small minority share in, and whose charter is to keep people employed and maintain the stability of the dollar. Currently they are failing in the former, and have overseen the erosion of the dollars value to the tune of 97% since 1913. So obviously they have failed spectacularly in the latter. We can not continue as a country of debtors. The current real inflation rate is closer to 20% then the phony 8% they are putting out there. We are heading into (or may be already in) not only a recession but maybe even a depression. And no, the central bank can not do anything to prevent it this time. And they know it. They have taken this economy past the point of no return. The dollar is already on the way to losing it's reserve currency status, which is about the only thing that is preventing us from free falling. It is clear that the days of the dollars reign are coming to an end. I feel sorry for people that have purchased collectibles in the last 1.5 years or so thinking they have a long term blue chip investment. Maybe some of the best of the best collectibles will whether the storm, but around 90%, 95% of what is out there will not fare well. The collectibles market across the board is going to not just soften, but probably crash in the next 6 to 16 months. Many of the prices realized at auction have no real core under lying basis. This economic system has been shaky since the late 90's and has been on life support since 2008. This current economic system itself is not sustainable, and I fully expect a non fed bank, government printed currency, asset backed system to return to America, probably beginning sometime in late 2023 or early mid 2024, with the transition taking place maybe over 6 months to a years time(?). 

[G.A.tor]

On 6/16/2022 at 4:32 PM, Brian Peck said:

Another over size John Buscema re-creation this time if SS #4 went for $43K

I already have a great buscema ss4 recreation ow it would have gone for more

[Brian Peck]

On 6/17/2022 at 1:42 PM, G.A.tor said:

I already have a great buscema ss4 recreation ow it would have gone for more

That's what they all say

[jjonahjameson11]

On 6/17/2022 at 1:32 PM, Brian Peck said:

Nope the over sized SS#1 went for more. Both commissioned by the same collector.

In addition to the Buscema SS #1 recreation, a Romita Sr ASM 100 cover recreation sold for  $78K back in 2011

[Rick2you2]

On 6/17/2022 at 1:17 PM, Humpty-Dumpty said:

Just about every collectible is wildly overvalued.at this point in time. As you mentioned Gene, there has been way to much money printed in the last 14 years. The Untied States can never repay its debt to the Fed central bank, a bank in which the Untied States actually has only a small minority share in, and whose charter is to keep people employed and maintain the stability of the dollar. Currently they are failing in the former, and have overseen the erosion of the dollars value to the tune of 97% since 1913. So obviously they have failed spectacularly in the latter. We can not continue as a country of debtors. The current real inflation rate is closer to 20% then the phony 8% they are putting out there. We are heading into (or may be already in) not only a recession but maybe even a depression. And no, the central bank can not do anything to prevent it this time. And they know it. They have taken this economy past the point of no return. The dollar is already on the way to losing it's reserve currency status, which is about the only thing that is preventing us from free falling. It is clear that the days of the dollars reign are coming to an end. I feel sorry for people that have purchased collectibles in the last 1.5 years or so thinking they have a long term blue chip investment. Maybe some of the best of the best collectibles will whether the storm, but around 90%, 95% of what is out there will not fare well. The collectibles market across the board is going to not just soften, but probably crash in the next 6 to 16 months. Many of the prices realized at auction have no real core under lying basis. This economic system has been shaky since the late 90's and has been on life support since 2008. This current economic system itself is not sustainable, and I fully expect a non fed bank, government printed currency, asset backed system to return to America, probably beginning sometime in late 2023 or early mid 2024, with the transition taking place maybe over 6 months to a years time(?). 

Spoken like a gold bug . Inflation is a necessary part of the economic system in order to counterbalance technological improvements and increased efficiencies which increase the value of what they buy, while reducing the cost to produce. Inflation means people have to improve their absolute income in order to maintain relative wealth. The Fed these days is okay with 2%, and can tolerate 3%. What we are seeing now is also the result of a pumped up economy on funds that saved us from a COVID induced depression—add money to the system so it doesn’t freeze up like it did to trigger the Great Depression. But, we also have our wonderful politicians, and Fed, who helped prime the pump after the Great Recession, and never fully pulled back spending afterward. Then, throw in market dominating companies who have pricing power. They Hoover up capital, helping to make the rich richer, and the rich then put their money in collectibles. 
 

I agree that collectibles are overpriced, but I don’t have the same “gloom and doom” attitude about the rest. We live on a relative scale, and the economic system remains grounded—except in the financial markets, including collectibles. We have full employment, with labor actually pushing back with union backing. We have cost inflation, but the very latest reads show a consumer pushback on costs is starting. Reports on housing in the last 2 weeks or so show softening in some places. In 6 months or less, that type of inflation will be under control if fossil fuels get under control. But if price/earnings ratios return to what they were 10 years ago, there will be a whole lotta hurt in the stock market.
 

 

[Peter G]

On 6/17/2022 at 5:32 PM, Rick2you2 said:

Spoken like a gold bug . Inflation is a necessary part of the economic system in order to counterbalance technological improvements and increased efficiencies which increase the value of what they buy, while reducing the cost to produce. Inflation means people have to improve their absolute income in order to maintain relative wealth. The Fed these days is okay with 2%, and can tolerate 3%. What we are seeing now is also the result of a pumped up economy on funds that saved us from a COVID induced depression—add money to the system so it doesn’t freeze up like it did to trigger the Great Depression. But, we also have our wonderful politicians, and Fed, who helped prime the pump after the Great Recession, and never fully pulled back spending afterward. Then, throw in market dominating companies who have pricing power. They Hoover up capital, helping to make the rich richer, and the rich then put their money in collectibles. 
 

I agree that collectibles are overpriced, but I don’t have the same “gloom and doom” attitude about the rest. We live on a relative scale, and the economic system remains grounded—except in the financial markets, including collectibles. We have full employment, with labor actually pushing back with union backing. We have cost inflation, but the very latest reads show a consumer pushback on costs is starting. Reports on housing in the last 2 weeks or so show softening in some places. In 6 months or less, that type of inflation will be under control if fossil fuels get under control. But if price/earnings ratios return to what they were 10 years ago, there will be a whole lotta hurt in the stock market.
 

 

Statist drivel

[Rick2you2]

On 6/17/2022 at 5:57 PM, Peter G said:

Statist drivel

Not at all. Most of the economy is controlled by consumer buys and sells, not the state. I think the economy is pretty healthy— except in financial matters, where too much money has become lodged since the Clinton Administration. I also have a pretty good track record. I remember speaking to a finance guy and telling him I saw boom times ahead during the Trump Administration. He said he hoped I was right, but I was the only one predicting it. I was. 

[G.A.tor]

On 6/17/2022 at 5:20 PM, Brian Peck said:

That's what they all say

Not saying I’d win but I would have bid raising the price. 

[Rick2you2]

On 6/17/2022 at 9:21 AM, delekkerste said:

There are a multitude of reasons, with technology/communications and globalization certainly resulting in larger and faster movements of capital than ever before (as Bronty alluded to).

That said, I think the biggest reason is very clear:  a serial blowing of asset bubbles by the central banks. They allowed the '90s tech bubble to inflate more or less unabated and flooded the world with liquidity pre-Y2K. When that bubble burst, they very explicitly set out to inflate a housing bubble to patch over the gaping hole in the economy and consumers' balance sheets. And when that inevitably ended in tears, they very explicitly set out to repair peoples' balance sheets again by inflating a stock market bubble through zero-interest rate policy and quantitative easing (money printing).

And, in doing so, they got the market and economy so addicted to a constant drip of monetary heroin (stimulus) that every little wobble in the markets was met with more stimulus, from the original "taper tantrum" in 2013 to the Fed folding its rate normalization plan at the end of 2018 in the face of falling stock prices, to the short-term financing (repo) market simply not working anymore by the fall of 2019, at which point the Fed was forced to re-start the printing press just to keep the heroin-addicted market from going into withdrawal. And then of course what happened in 2020-21...

Most people have no idea just how structurally unhealthy and overvalued the markets had gotten as a result of all of these shenanigans. And now we are paying the price yet again. I know we were starting out from sky-high levels, but, when you blow a $16 trillion (let's not forget the $2 trillion lost in crypto as well as the stocks + bonds shown above) hole in peoples' portfolios in a matter of months, it's going to have an effect, even if many people are better off (for now, anyway) than they were a couple of years ago.

I know it's certainly impacting my OA buying - I have quietly been a fairly busy buyer this year and was buying actively as recently as the ComicConnect sale a week or two ago. But this week's collapse in stock & crypto markets was the tipping point for me and I sat out this Heritage sale entirely and plan to wait on the sidelines here.

I don’t think you can just blame the central banks here. A lot of the blame goes more pointedly to the big private banks who didn’t want to write down their loans, and companies who didn’t want to devalue their assets. In a sense, it’s a bit like the way some 401(k)’s now allow a percentage of retirement funds to be put in crypto to boost their returns. Bury the losses and hope things work out. ☠️

[Rick2you2]

What all of this suggests, however, is that unless you really, really, really want an expensive piece, it may make a lousy investment.

[drdonaldblake1]

On 6/18/2022 at 2:06 AM, delekkerste said:

Definitely not the pinnacle of the hobby, but, a great, iconic piece which had the potential to do better in the eyes of many. I guess in the end, the X-Men #1 wraparound cover did slightly better (I'd much rather have that one, personally) and we know the Hulk #181 cover will do an enormous price if/when it comes to auction. 

Well, there have only been a handful of public 7-figure sales to date and I don't think we know if any of them went to the house. Even yesterday's sale could have been one guy bidding at that $2M hammer level and maybe we'll even see the piece surface in the coming days/weeks. 

There are so many big 5 and 6 figure OA sales and 5, 6 and 7 figure comic book sales these days that I feel like Occam's Razor would suggest that there's just a lot of people with bags of money that have been spending the past few years. We'll see how long it continues, though, as more and more (paper) wealth keeps getting vaporized in the markets.

Hey gene, does the cover OA for hulk 181 actually exist? For real??

Would be fantastic if it does!

[drdonaldblake1]

On 6/18/2022 at 3:32 AM, Brian Peck said:

Nope the over sized SS#1 went for more. Both commissioned by the same collector.

Do you know when and what that sold for?

[Peter G]

On 6/17/2022 at 6:35 PM, Rick2you2 said:

Most of the economy is controlled by consumer buys and sells, not the state. 

And therein lies the crux of our disagreement. In my estimate, this economy is all mostly central planned by the state and only masked by a very thin patina of private free enterprise.

[drdonaldblake1]

If you don't include the SW8 zeck page, then would the DK1 cover be a price record for OA?

I think the SW8 page will prove to be a one off anomaly.

The prices for the OA IN this auction seemed still very high across the board.

Those two killing joke pages over $100k each??!!🤯

[Twanj]

On 6/17/2022 at 7:09 PM, drdonaldblake1 said:

If you don't include the SW8 zeck page, then would the DK1 cover be a price record for OA?

Publicly yes. Privately it sounds like no.

 

[comix4fun]

On 6/17/2022 at 6:09 PM, drdonaldblake1 said:

 

Those two killing joke pages over $100k each??!!🤯

Given recent history and the arc of comparable quality pieces that was probably the least shocking set of six figure results in the auction.