Moderns that are heating up on ebay! 71 71

[lightninglad]

"ASM #300 did NOT have a "huge print run." It had a bump because it was an anniversary issue, but average sales for the year were 271,100, and ASM #300 wasn't an exceptionally heavily ordered issue in that year.

 

That means the average amount of extant copies for these 1988 books...a couple of years before the speculation madness of the early 90's...is just about 271k copies, and many, many of those copies weresingle copy purchases. "

 

I wonder who that quote is from?

 

Zero speculation in that comment......

 

"many, many" is about as factual of a statement as you can get

 

Edited March 16, 2016 by lightninglad

[bababooey]

 

 

[fastballspecial]

So can we all just use the term "estimated" and be done with this discussion?

 

No.

 

There's nothing to estimate from.

 

When you estimate, you have to have some foundation to base the estimation on.

 

With these books, there is none. The numbers upon which such "estimations" are based are, themselves, estimates.

 

How valid are estimates of estimates?

 

You've become pretty ridiculous in this crusade and just as unreasonable as those you fight against. Based upon the information we know, we CAN begin to "estimate" what the print run of a comic is. Nothing is 100% absolute in life. We all know that. Constantly repeating yourself ad nauseam reminding everyone of that is tiresome.

 

 

You can't even get 50% "absolute" with print runs, because you don't know what they are. You have no way of knowing. The only thing you know for sure is what DIAMOND (who is, after all, in the business of SELLING COMIC BOOKS) reports to Comichron and others about what they sell to North American comic book shops.

 

You're trying to guess the picture of a 1,000 piece puzzle, and you're missing half the pieces...but you call that "good enough."

 

What was the total print run of the regular first print of, say, Wolverine #66...?

 

Do you have any idea?

 

Can you "estimate" something for which you don't even begin to have any reasonable information about (that is, the UK numbers, or the newsstand numbers)...?

 

That's the problem.

 

So, you can call it "ridiculous", and you can call it a "crusade", and you can be dismissive if you like, and call my "repeating it ad nauseam tiresome"...you're not the first, and won't be the last. It's what people do on the internet.

 

I find the ad nauseam repetition and ad nauseam deliberate spread of MISinformation tiresome.

 

So, who is the more ridiculous...? Those who deliberately repeat and spread misinformation, for whatever unstated agenda may exist, or those who fight that, to make sure people make decisions based on accurate information?

 

What side are you really on, "lightinglad"...?

 

 

 

 

I agree that this flood of comic flippers "estimating " an issue will be $12 by Thursady but $7 by the weekend SO ACT QUICKLY! screams of the 90's crash and it scares me. This hobby means the world to me and for those that lived it, this newfound fear is REAL. We see these new blood kids as punks sending our beloved hobby on an all too familiar collision course. Standing up and fighting for the hobby we love is fine, dare I say even noble, but not at the price of being hypocritical.

I know.....

 

I know I cut some of your comment out, but I thought this was really great to see someone else have the same sentiment I do. I am really worried that we are heading down that path again. This new breed of speculator is not someone contributing to the hobby, but merely finding a way to pump books thru websites.

 

Keep in mind I have no problem with sites that focus or highlight books selling well just don't let me find you selling the same book that you are promoting that week as a "hot" book. Quite a few speculator sites do this on a regular basis.

 

That is a conflicted interest and makes you a .

 

Edited March 16, 2016 by Fastballspecial

[krighton]

I wish people would stop talking about the 90s....they gave us nm 98 which everyone seems to love.

[oldbsturgeon]

So can we all just use the term "estimated" and be done with this discussion?

 

No.

 

There's nothing to estimate from.

 

When you estimate, you have to have some foundation to base the estimation on.

 

With these books, there is none. The numbers upon which such "estimations" are based are, themselves, estimates.

 

How valid are estimates of estimates?

I would estimate maybe good possibly?

[Prince Namor]

OK, something about 1:15...blah blah

 

So what does this mean RMA? Print run of 30,000..2,000 of these?

 

Or even less...one for every 15 a shop ordered...so if a shop ordered 6 copies, none for them, so the number is definitely less than 2,000

 

Or..., "we just don't know"?

 

I think RMA is saying that they print tons and tons of them and then distribute the amount based on how many a shop buys. Then later sell the rest at a discount to Diamond account holders

 

If that's what he's saying he's wrong. Not only would that be incredibly wasteful it would be stupid. There's a reason Diamond has a "final order cut off" for retailers and that reason is so publishers will know how many books they need to print- that includes variants.

 

The variants are then printed in cases , 200-225 per case, and they are printed up to the nearest case. Whatever printing overages there are on books are usually minor.

 

Do publishers sometimes over print books and then burn them off in a variant offering once in a blue moon? Yes. But that is the extreme exception and not hardly the norm, and even more so now.

 

-J.

 

The fact that they're so secretive about it, to the point they refuse to make a statement even addressing it, makes me think otherwise.

 

If that's how they do it, why wouldn't they just calm everyone's thoughts on it and say it?

[Prince Namor]

I believe they were talking about the regular cover. There are a few variants, and the wop variant, being a % of previous order variant, may be the lowest print run. The 1:15 is the highest ratio incentive.

 

Why would it be the lowest print run?

 

All you had to do was hit 90% of your order from #6, and it was an order all you want.

Almost every retailer should qualify as everyone's order should've increased for the beginning of this story line.

[followtheleader]

Extraordinary X-men 8

 

Patrick

[UltraMaximus]

I believe they were talking about the regular cover. There are a few variants, and the wop variant, being a % of previous order variant, may be the lowest print run. The 1:15 is the highest ratio incentive.

 

Why would it be the lowest print run?

 

All you had to do was hit 90% of your order from #6, and it was an order all you want.

Almost every retailer should qualify as everyone's order should've increased for the beginning of this story line.

 

My local store isn't getting any WOP variants, and some of the other local stores were not getting a few of them and got others. Orders for my main lcs were too big in the beginning and they cannot carry the extra % even at 90. Extraordinary X-Men went down to less than 10 copies at the main store, no subscribers to it.

 

Same reason Star Wars Action Figure Variants are drying up, unless marvel brings those % down from the heights they were at, my local store will never get them again.

 

.

[Prince Namor]

I believe they were talking about the regular cover. There are a few variants, and the wop variant, being a % of previous order variant, may be the lowest print run. The 1:15 is the highest ratio incentive.

 

Why would it be the lowest print run?

 

All you had to do was hit 90% of your order from #6, and it was an order all you want.

Almost every retailer should qualify as everyone's order should've increased for the beginning of this story line.

 

My local store isn't getting any WOP variants, and some of the other local stores were not getting a few of them and got others. Orders for my main lcs were too big in the beginning and they cannot carry the extra % even at 90. Extraordinary X-Men went down to less than 10 copies at the main store, no subscribers to it.

 

Same reason Star Wars Action Figure Variants are drying up, unless marvel brings those % down from the heights they were at, my local store will never get them again.

 

.

 

So based upon a few shops in Central Florida, your guessing nationwide everyone else is doing the same...?

[cbaileypacker]

I believe they were talking about the regular cover. There are a few variants, and the wop variant, being a % of previous order variant, may be the lowest print run. The 1:15 is the highest ratio incentive.

 

Why would it be the lowest print run?

 

All you had to do was hit 90% of your order from #6, and it was an order all you want.

Almost every retailer should qualify as everyone's order should've increased for the beginning of this story line.

 

My local store isn't getting any WOP variants, and some of the other local stores were not getting a few of them and got others. Orders for my main lcs were too big in the beginning and they cannot carry the extra % even at 90. Extraordinary X-Men went down to less than 10 copies at the main store, no subscribers to it.

 

Same reason Star Wars Action Figure Variants are drying up, unless marvel brings those % down from the heights they were at, my local store will never get them again.

 

.

 

So based upon a few shops in Central Florida, your guessing nationwide everyone else is doing the same...?

 

In Portland, Oregon it was the same. Most shops got zero if any, even the big guys only got a few, and even they didn't get them all. Seems to be plenty right now online, so who knows.

[UltraMaximus]

I had a really thought out reply, but I lost it. Not retyping it, but it was gold.

 

Short story: Percentile variants percented Marvel out of big stores, like my local one and DCBS with their previous 200, 175, 150% requirements, and not being able to grow readership properly to support those numbers. Only now with the 90% goal that is still unattainable for some larger stores due to recent #1's and a high starting line slimming down, and only in the last few months have we had a few titles with no variant offered to get a gauge on their actual readership/collectorship, or a number check as I like to say.

 

I pay closer attention to the US market too which said Dec-February was a little rough, but Feb looked better than the last 2 months.

[UltraMaximus]

And if they don't get ordered, they get 5 Below or Pulped. Or held at ransom by RMA asking each issue "HOW MANY OF YOU ARE THERE?!?!?!?!?!!?!"

 

 

[jsilverjanet]

I know people like to make that joke about 5 below but the truth is many of the Marvel Now variants do show up there.

 

:shrug:

[revat]

I know people like to make that joke about 5 below but the truth is many of the Marvel Now variants do show up there.

 

:shrug:

 

I want know where all the convergence covers went to die. Sooooo sooooo many extras everywhere. are they sent to poor African kids like Super Bowl loser gear?

[UltraMaximus]

I know people like to make that joke about 5 below but the truth is many of the Marvel Now variants do show up there.

 

:shrug:

 

I want know where all the convergence covers went to die. Sooooo sooooo many extras everywhere. are they sent to poor African kids like Super Bowl loser gear?

 

Convergence early issues were returnable, and everyone loved the Hughes #0, so that's only one issue that sold well (because of the variant).

[jsilverjanet]

I know people like to make that joke about 5 below but the truth is many of the Marvel Now variants do show up there.

 

:shrug:

 

I want know where all the convergence covers went to die. Sooooo sooooo many extras everywhere. are they sent to poor African kids like Super Bowl loser gear?

 

Convergence early issues were returnable, and everyone loved the Hughes #0, so that's only one issue that sold well (because of the variant).

I only see Marvel variants.

 

I did good last year. I know the Ramos ASM 4 was talked about the most but I did fnd two Elektra 1:75 variants. Some Captain Marvel 1:50 2014

 

 

[revat]

I know people like to make that joke about 5 below but the truth is many of the Marvel Now variants do show up there.

 

:shrug:

 

I want know where all the convergence covers went to die. Sooooo sooooo many extras everywhere. are they sent to poor African kids like Super Bowl loser gear?

 

Convergence early issues were returnable, and everyone loved the Hughes #0, so that's only one issue that sold well (because of the variant).

 

That's what I mean. They were returnable right? They must have taken a ton back. What happened to them? Destroyed? Africa? Will Trump use them to torture prisoners?

[Mike's Rack]

So why DO we know that the "ratio incentives" aren't actually printed according to order numbers, when we DON'T know how many the publishers actually print?

 

Mainly because these incentive variants routinely (not "once in a blue moon", as some claim) are sold in special sales...and, indeed, in far, far higher numbers than can be accounted for by "just selling off the damages/returns overruns."

 

If those books were "just printed to order", as is claimed, they ALL would have been distributed at the time the book came out, with only a slight handful...the "case" situation...left.

 

So, we know what it's NOT...we just don't know what it IS.

We know because things like this happen quite often:

 

http://www.bleedingcool.com/2015/05/15/marvel-liquidates-miracleman-1-10-in-all-its-variants/

 

...and yet that is one of exactly two or three examples from the last ten years that anyone can ever talk about to show that it happens "all the time". Silly Billies.

 

Like I said, once in a blue moon and an infinitesimal amount as a percentage of variants that a publisher will print in a single year even.

 

-J.

This has happened more than once. They did it with all the leftover variants last year. They also liquidate them at 5 below. The point is the variants are printed in greater quantity than the order ratios require.

[RockMyAmadeus]

"ASM #300 did NOT have a "huge print run." It had a bump because it was an anniversary issue, but average sales for the year were 271,100, and ASM #300 wasn't an exceptionally heavily ordered issue in that year.

 

That means the average amount of extant copies for these 1988 books...a couple of years before the speculation madness of the early 90's...is just about 271k copies, and many, many of those copies weresingle copy purchases. "

 

I wonder who that quote is from?

 

Zero speculation in that comment......

 

"many, many" is about as factual of a statement as you can get

 

Here's your basic problem in this discussion: you're confusing LACK OF information with MISinformation.

 

There's a very important distinction between those two, and as a result, you're accusing me of being a hypocrite simply for not being precise, even though such precision is impossible in this case, and not even necessary.

 

Or, as you put it:

 

And if your fight is misformation.......make sure you use solid factual information yourself, or run the risk of sinking to the same level as those you fight against.

 

That's really silly.

 

Estimating is not misinforming. Misinforming is when the information is simply inaccurate, like saying "there are five moons orbiting the planet earth."

 

Meanwhile, there are about 100 billion stars in the Milky Way Galaxy. That's an approximation, because we do not yet have the ability to count them all one by one. We may never have that ability. so we estimate. An estimate isn't necessarily wrong just by virtue of being an estimate.

 

However...there are reasonable, educated estimates, based on reliable information, and pure guesses based on faulty premises. Estimates can, in fact, be based on "solid, factual information", and be very good, while still remaining estimates.

 

Estimating the print runs AND extant copies of 1980's and 1990's standard comic books can be done reasonably, and educated guesses can be made, based on the factors I already stated, and others.

 

Estimating the print runs and extant copies of retailer incentive variants from the last 15 years on the other hand, and basing those estimations on the faulty premise that the numbers contained at Comichron are print runs is not acceptable, because it starts with that flawed premise.

 

We can't know for sure, but...we have a fair IDEA of what exists, because of the nature of the comics hobby by 1988, and how it proceeded from there.

 

By 1988, most comics sales were being sold to people who generally kept them. They weren't being thrown away en masse, like they were up until the mid-60's or so. Most people...say (and this is an estimate, now, based on availability on the market, CGC, market reports, and yes, even experience) 75-90% of all comics printed in 1988 still exist.

 

That is NOT TRUE of certain later books like, for example, the Maxx Aschans, which were almost certainly tossed, along with boxes and boxes of other unsold variants of the period, by Image and retailers in the late 90's.

 

Certain books like that were decimated, because they were...follow me, here...niche variant books that often did not reach any end user customers, but were stored for handing out to fans who wrote letters, or at cons, or as some other special this or that...until they ended up stuck with unsellable stock that no one wanted by 1999 or so.

 

I bought 600 copies...yes, 600...of Brigade #1 Gold from Steve Schanes (of Pacific Comics publishing fame) in 2000 for 55 cents each. Also 550 Supreme #1 Golds, 500 Youngblood #0 Golds, and 500 Youngblood Strikefile #1 Golds.

 

 

I still have them. All of them.. In the ensuing 16 years, I've managed to unload not a single copy on anyone, for any price.

 

If I were to suddenly croak, what do you think would happen to those copies?

 

Yet, that's 10% or more of the "supposed" print runs of these niche "incentive" books.

 

Another example: Spiderman #1 Platinum. Marvel had at least 3,000 copies of the purported 10,000 copy run still in their possession by 2005-ish, when Todd McDevitt of New Dimension bought them out. I'm pretty sure it was ND, maybe it was Neatstuff? In any event, one of those guys bought out THOUSANDS of remaining copies, FIFTEEN YEARS after they were printed.

 

That's because variants and incentives operate differently in the market from regular books that are distributed through regular channels, and generally always have.

 

Context, context, context.

 

If you're going to take things out of their context, you're going to get these types of explanations, to put them back IN context

 

So, if you want to compare the estimation of print runs for standard comics from the 80's and 90's, for which we have much more substantial numbers for the actual books with which to work, vs. the estimation of print runs for retailer incentives that have essentially NO numbers with which to work, feel free. Just know that that comparison is a very bad one.

 

Like I said...there's a substantial difference between estimation and misinformation, which difference you don't seem to understand.