BLACK PANTHER 2 directed by Ryan Coogler (TBD) 8 8

[MR SigS]

On 12/2/2022 at 5:28 AM, davidpg said:

Because it literally couldn't be worse? ;)

They just rehired the man that started them down this current path to finish the job.

[paperheart]

any notion that this might have legs post Thanksgiving similar to Thor:Rag are dashed as Deadline's $17-19M mid Fri update indicates a down 60% weekend (vs down 41%) for Thor:Rag. #MCU4sad

[TupennyConan]

I still want to see it & eventually will. The big stumbling block for me has been the funeral. It looks like one long funeral. 

[drotto]

On 12/3/2022 at 7:17 AM, TupennyConan said:

I still want to see it & eventually will. The big stumbling block for me has been the funeral. It looks like one long funeral. 

It is only about the first 10 minutes.  You get a funeral I stead of an opening action set piece. 

[paperheart]

down 65%  #MCU4sad

[drotto]

On 12/3/2022 at 12:13 PM, paperheart said:

down 65%  #MCU4sad

$16 mil based on a $4.4 Friday is iffy.  Even if it does, does the domestic get adjusted down?  Looking more like $425 to $435 as opposed to $455 domestic. Is $800 mil total box office looking more likely?

[Jaydogrules]

On 12/3/2022 at 9:47 AM, drotto said:

$16 mil based on a $4.4 Friday is iffy.  Even if it does, does the domestic get adjusted down?  Looking more like $425 to $435 as opposed to $455 domestic. Is $800 mil total box office looking more likely?

Dude I'm starting to wonder if this will fall-ow in love and thunder's footsteps and not even beat The Batman.  

We should know once the international markets are released tomorrow.  If it's at 725+ it should beat the Batman.  But 800 million isn't certain at this point.  If this movie ends with a "7" in front of it , that's a failure. 

-J.

Edited December 4, 2022 by Jaydogrules

[Tnexus]

On 12/3/2022 at 4:10 PM, Jaydogrules said:

Dude I'm starting to wonder if this will fall-ow in love and thunder's footsteps and not even beat The Batman.  

We should know once the international markets are released tomorrow.  If it's at 725+ it should beat the Batman.  But 800 million isn't certain at this point.  If this movie ends with a "7" in front of it , that's a failure. 

-J.

Post Covid? It's a respectable number. They'll still be well in the black with this one. There's also a decent chunk of change Disney can probably claim from D+ as revenue once this airs too.

[paperheart]

slightly less terrible than initial projections, one more weekend at #1 to go

[Bosco685]

[Jaydogrules]

On 12/4/2022 at 8:20 AM, paperheart said:

slightly less terrible than initial projections, one more weekend at #1 to go

Good chance at (slightly) beating Batman now.  

Probably worse than even odds it hits 800M at this point.  

Although I wouldn't put it past Disney to insist it stays in (discount) theaters for however long it takes to get it to just barely crawl past that 800m for an "only" 550M face plant with ZERO competition.    

-J.

Edited December 4, 2022 by Jaydogrules

[Microchip]

The third MCU movie to do ok at the box office based on the momentum of the previous movie, but ultimately stink on their own merits.

Guardians and Ant-man have everything to play for here. 

Phase 4 was meant to be based off of What If, not Not Brand Echh 

 

Edited December 5, 2022 by Microchip

[drotto]

On 12/4/2022 at 12:05 AM, Tnexus said:

Post Covid? It's a respectable number. They'll still be well in the black with this one. There's also a decent chunk of change Disney can probably claim from D+ as revenue once this airs too.

There is a fraction of the money in streaming on your own service then the older model of selling post theatrical rights.  That is why WB is going back to the old model. So once the theatrical run is over, the film has made the bulk it will. Also, it is hinted the merchandise sales are way down across the MCU.

 

This movie needs to make North of $700 million to be profitable.   Yes, it will make money, but it is way down, and budgets and marketing are way up. They spent $250 to make this, and at leat $150 in marketing. Domestically, Disney keeps about 55% of the Box Office. International they keep about 45%. So st $394 domestic that is $217, and at $340 international that is $151. So right now Disney has made about $368.  This is where the current about 2.8 multiple comes from, and one of the current MCU issues. That multiple is a little more forgiving, but still puts the break even at $700. These movies have big budgets with lower returns.

[Jaydogrules]

On 12/5/2022 at 4:59 AM, drotto said:

There is a fraction of the money in streaming on your own service then the older model of selling post theatrical rights.  That is why WB is going back to the old model. So once the theatrical run is over, the film has made the bulk it will. Also, it is hinted the merchandise sales are way down across the MCU.

 

This movie needs to make North of $700 million to be profitable.   Yes, it will make money, but it is way down, and budgets and marketing are way up. They spent $250 to make this, and at leat $150 in marketing. Domestically, Disney keeps about 55% of the Box Office. International they keep about 45%. So st $394 domestic that is $217, and at $340 international that is $151. So right now Disney has made about $368.  This is where the current about 2.8 multiple comes from, and one of the current MCU issues. That multiple is a little more forgiving, but still puts the break even at $700. These movies have big budgets with lower returns.

Forbes just did an autopsy on the failure of Black Adam and basically put the "break even" multiple at 3x production, at least.

I imagine for Disney and their huge marketing machine, it's closer to 3.5x.

A completely unsustainable business model, and I suspect why the stock is in the toilet and the CEO was fired. 

-J.

[theCapraAegagrus]

On 12/4/2022 at 12:25 PM, Bosco685 said:

Why would they increase the budget for this, without the star character? That's just dumb decision-making.

[Bosco685]

On 12/5/2022 at 11:34 AM, theCapraAegagrus said:

Why would they increase the budget for this, without the star character? That's just dumb decision-making.

I think it came down the pandemic impact and all the starts and stops that took place.

[Ameri]

On 11/22/2022 at 10:29 PM, N e r V said:

Can’t speak for other fans but I’m getting burned out on MCU. There’s still a few odds and ends like Werewolf by Night I enjoy but being a really big Sub-Mariner fan the character in BP 2 only resembles him in name. Could easily have been a new character. The changes they seem to be doing lately are a bit to extreme now from the original source material for me. That and the stories are boring lately. 

Just curious, was Bill Everett's name mentioned as the creator of Sub-Mariner in the end credits? 

[drotto]

On 12/5/2022 at 12:20 PM, Bosco685 said:

I think it came down the pandemic impact and all the starts and stops that took place.

Saw another report that they may have spent upwards of $250 million in marketing on this film. 

[N e r V]

On 12/10/2022 at 8:38 PM, Ameri said:

Just curious, was Bill Everett's name mentioned as the creator of Sub-Mariner in the end credits? 

After the “Black Panther created by Lee & Kirby” credit there is a long list of creators listed under “with special thanks to” which are in alphabetical order and Bill Everett’s name is buried there when you get to the E’s. Just as well since it’s not really much of his work outside of the name.

[N e r V]

On 12/5/2022 at 4:59 AM, drotto said:

There is a fraction of the money in streaming on your own service then the older model of selling post theatrical rights.  That is why WB is going back to the old model. So once the theatrical run is over, the film has made the bulk it will. Also, it is hinted the merchandise sales are way down across the MCU.

 

This movie needs to make North of $700 million to be profitable.   Yes, it will make money, but it is way down, and budgets and marketing are way up. They spent $250 to make this, and at leat $150 in marketing. Domestically, Disney keeps about 55% of the Box Office. International they keep about 45%. So st $394 domestic that is $217, and at $340 international that is $151. So right now Disney has made about $368.  This is where the current about 2.8 multiple comes from, and one of the current MCU issues. That multiple is a little more forgiving, but still puts the break even at $700. These movies have big budgets with lower returns.

As this business model continues to change the company’s ability to make money on streaming is easily one of their top concerns if not the most concerning. Shareholders are asking “what’s that going to look like?” with no clear answers just yet.