MCU's THE ETERNALS (11/6/20) 8 8

[drotto]

On 11/27/2021 at 12:02 PM, Bosco685 said:

Marvel movies are still making strides out there.

Just one of them is not part of a 26-film franchise with all slack granted to each production that gets released nowadays.

Still think Venom does not really count, plus has a much lower production budget.  The biggest issue with the  Disney MCU films is the Budget compared to box office.  All of them need to clear about $500 to $550 million before they become profitable.  Shang-Chi is borderline profitable ($50 million lower budget), but with Black Widow and Eternals, I just do not see how they get there.

[paperheart]

On 11/27/2021 at 9:13 AM, drotto said:

Still think Venom does not really count, plus has a much lower production budget.  The biggest issue with the  Disney MCU films is the Budget compared to box office.  All of them need to clear about $500 to $550 million before they become profitable.  Shang-Chi is borderline profitable ($50 million lower budget), but with Black Widow and Eternals, I just do not see how they get there.

BW maybe because of the $125 million Disney+ but Eternals won't eke out a profit until the 10 millionth DVD is sold out of the $1 bin at Circuit City 

[Bosco685]

On 11/27/2021 at 12:19 PM, paperheart said:

BW maybe because of the $125 million Disney+ but Eternals won't eke out a profit until the 10 millionth DVD is sold out of the $1 bin at Circuit City 

That's right. Black Widow did have its Disney+ Premiere Access domestic and international that would have required...

On 8/23/2021 at 7:11 PM, Gatsby77 said:

He’s not wrong, tho.

My MBA’s from a public school and once upon a time I got fired from my accounting job at a private equity fund but this is interesting on several levels:

Spoiler

1) It provides a benchmark for a total Disney+ Premium of ~2.0x (first weekend to total). 

Disney self-reported $60 million first weekend gross & $125 million total (now, near end-of-run).

2) Given that Disney nets at least 85% of Disney+ Premium grosses, $125 mill. there is indeed equivalent to $175+ million theatrical (assuming an overall 60% domestic take, which is likely given how front-loaded this was).

3) (From the early pages of this thread, years ago) - ScarJo’s contract stipulated a $5 million bonus once the film crossed $500 million worldwide theatrical.

4) The contract was silent as to streaming revenue, in part, because it was negotiated at a time when Disney+ didn’t exist (source: NPR earlier today - believe it was 1-A).

Therefore her case is solid, in that the film arguably will gross $500+ million, but she won’t qualify for her bonus due to cannibalism from streaming.

5) Arbitration is the right move for Disney because it’s cheaper to pay her $20-$50 million in settlement and keep those terms secret than to have to negotiate streaming gross points and profit sharing with every movie star in perpetuity.

All of this aside, Black Widow remains the highest studio grosser of the pandemic era (Fast 9 is second, A Quiet Place 2 is third).

 

On 8/23/2021 at 8:33 PM, Bosco685 said:

Based on your earlier supposedly informed statement, and using your beloved Deadline box office share figures to determine domestic and international results...

DOMESTIC BOX OFFICE:

• $60M Streaming Dollars = $51M Disney revenue (please be careful not to assume this is profits)
• $51M Domestic Box Office = 55% studio revenue which means $92,727,273 total domestic box office is required

INTERNATIONAL BOX OFFICE:

• $60M Streaming Dollars = $51M Disney revenue (again - please be careful not to assume this is profits)
• $51M International Box Office = 40% studio revenue which means $127,500,000 total international box office is required

FINAL BOX OFFICE REQUIRED:

• $220,227,273 worldwide would be necessary to achieve $102M in box office revenue share results combined based on streaming totals

Now if this had also played in China (it may - they love their MCU films), we would have had to account for the traditional International Box Office split between the wider international results (40% revenue) and China (just 25% of studio revenue to Disney).

• Spider-Man: Far from Home (international box office total) = $741,395,911 of which China comprised $205,442,096 (28% of total results)
• Avengers: Endgame(international box office total) = $1,939,128,328 of which China comprised $629,100,000 (32% of total results)
• Captain Marvel (international box office total) = $701,633,133 of which China comprised $154,070,663 (22% of total results)
• Avengers: Infinity War (international box office total) = $1,369,544,272 of which China comprised $359,543,153 (26% of total results)

So when China factors into the release plan, based on the last four movies, we are looking at an average China contribution of 27% of the total international box office.

But you realized all this with your MBA and former accounting job you were dismissed from - right? 

Uhmmmmmm...

$220.23M additional to match the same amount at the theaters. Or as Gatsby would say, "My MBA from a public school and previous accounting experience leads to me to assume the wrong figure...

Edited November 27, 2021 by Bosco685

[Jaydogrules]

 

On 11/27/2021 at 9:13 AM, drotto said:

Still think Venom does not really count, plus has a much lower production budget.  The biggest issue with the  Disney MCU films is the Budget compared to box office.  All of them need to clear about $500 to $550 million before they become profitable.  Shang-Chi is borderline profitable ($50 million lower budget), but with Black Widow and Eternals, I just do not see how they get there.

Black Widow and Eternals are lost causes.  They are complete and total write offs, even accounting for black Widow's (alleged) D+ money.  They both were simply waaaay too expensive, even if Corona wasn't a thing , there should have been at least one rational mind to ask "hey guys, maybe we shouldn't spend 350-400MM all in dollars on these particular  properties?".

Even shang-chi at "only" about 300MM all in is a preposterous amount to spend on that movie, and it hasn't made any profit either theatrically.  

Spider-man is going to save Disney's year with these things, but , oops!, they're going to have to split it with Sony.  

Hard to believe that some genius at Disney thought it wise to spend MORE on black widow (??) And eternals (???) And almost as much on shang chi (?) As they did on a 2.5 hour spider-man  movie.   

-J.

Edited November 27, 2021 by Jaydogrules

[drotto]

On 11/27/2021 at 5:53 PM, Jaydogrules said:

 

Black Widow and Eternals are lost causes.  They are complete and total write offs, even accounting for black Widow's (alleged) D+ money.  They both were simply waaaay too expensive, even if Corona wasn't a thing , there should have been at least one rational mind to ask "hey guys, maybe we shouldn't spend 350-400MM all in dollars on these particular  properties?".

Even shang-chi at "only" about 300MM all in is a preposterous amount to spend on that movie, and it hasn't made any profit either theatrically.  

Spider-man is going to save Disney's year with these things, but , oops!, they're going to have to split it with Sony.  

Hard to believe that some genius at Disney thought it wise to spend MORE on black widow (??) And eternals (???) And almost as much on shang chi (?) As they did on a 2.5 hour spider-man  movie.   

-J.

Disney will make money on this, but do we know what the deal is? Did they just get paid a licensing fee for Dr Strange and any other Disney owned characters. Or are they getting a percentage of the box office, or a mix?

[paperheart]

On 11/27/2021 at 2:53 PM, Jaydogrules said:

 

Black Widow and Eternals are lost causes.  They are complete and total write offs, even accounting for black Widow's (alleged) D+ money.  They both were simply waaaay too expensive, even if Corona wasn't a thing , there should have been at least one rational mind to ask "hey guys, maybe we shouldn't spend 350-400MM all in dollars on these particular  properties?".

Even shang-chi at "only" about 300MM all in is a preposterous amount to spend on that movie, and it hasn't made any profit either theatrically.  

Spider-man is going to save Disney's year with these things, but , oops!, they're going to have to split it with Sony.  

Hard to believe that some genius at Disney thought it wise to spend MORE on black widow (??) And eternals (???) And almost as much on shang chi (?) As they did on a 2.5 hour spider-man  movie.   

-J.

so they're writing off the entire amount; brilliant. there's actually zero revenue to offset the production budget & P&A. pick up your CFA certificate at the door- comes with a signed poster of Jason Momoa admitting Aquaman made no profit.

[Jaydogrules]

On 11/27/2021 at 3:06 PM, drotto said:

Disney will make money on this, but do we know what the deal is? Did they just get paid a licensing fee for Dr Strange and any other Disney owned characters. Or are they getting a percentage of the box office, or a mix?

I'm pretty sure it's a revenue sharing agreement but Sony foots the entire production budget, last I heard.  

-J.

[Jaydogrules]

On 11/27/2021 at 3:13 PM, paperheart said:

so they're writing off the entire amount; brilliant. there's actually zero revenue to offset the production budget & P&A. pick up your CFA certificate at the door- comes with a signed poster of Jason Momoa admitting Aquaman made no profit.

 The losses are what get written off, genius.  

Obviously.  

-J.

[paperheart]

On 11/27/2021 at 3:47 PM, Jaydogrules said:

 The losses are what get written off, genius.  

Obviously.  

-J.

'complete and total write-offs' - that was your post, go back and edit it for accuracy and/or sanity

[Straw-Man]

finally got around to it.   with low expectations, i was modestly impressed.  by no means great, but I’m thumbs-up.  

[Gatsby77]

On 11/27/2021 at 11:22 AM, Bosco685 said:

Gatsby - always bringing the passive-aggressive pie to the party

?

Nothing passive aggressive about it, my man. Just stating a fact:

Suicide Squad made nearly as much its opening weekend - five years ago - as Eternals made in its first three weeks - in 2021 dollars.

[paperheart]

US on target this weekend: , only positive going forward is that there's nothing until S-M

but Int'l was weak (this is the only tentpole that's consistently had estimates lowered this fall unlike: NTTD, Dune, Venom)- the audience has spoken

Edited November 28, 2021 by paperheart

[Bosco685]

On 11/28/2021 at 10:27 AM, Gatsby77 said:

?

Nothing passive aggressive about it, my man. Just stating a fact:

Suicide Squad made nearly as much its opening weekend - five years ago - as Eternals made in its first three weeks - in 2021 dollars.

Always with a passive-aggressive message.

See "The Flash should have been out in 2016" X 100 

[Bosco685]

 

[Bosco685]

On 11/28/2021 at 12:13 PM, paperheart said:

US on target this weekend: , only positive going forward is that there's nothing until S-M

but Int'l was weak (this is the only tentpole that's consistently had estimates lowered this fall unlike: NTTD, Dune, Venom)- the audience has spoken

 

[Chaos_in_Canada]

 

Top 2021 Movies at the Domestic Box Office

https://m.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/cumulative/released-in-2021

[Bosco685]

On 11/28/2021 at 3:00 PM, Chaos_in_Canada said:

 

Top 2021 Movies at the Domestic Box Office

https://m.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/cumulative/released-in-2021

Now let's do that in reality order: worldwide.

Top 2021 Movies at the Worldwide Box Office

Or were you now going to sort the list by movies beginning with 'E'?

[chrisco37]

Just got back from seeing it.  Theater seats were comfortable.  I have no interest in this batch of characters.  I fell asleep.  Better than Shang Chi.  
There was also a preview for Morbius.  While I like Jared Leto, I have even less interest in that.  It looked lame.

Bring on Spider-Man already.  

[▫️]

On 11/28/2021 at 11:00 PM, Chaos_in_Canada said:

 

Top 2021 Movies at the Domestic Box Office

https://m.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/cumulative/released-in-2021

If someone asks you how much Shang Chi made are you going to say 224 million? Of course you’re not. You’re going to give them the worldwide total which is 431 million. You know it. We know it. You and silvermaniac are too much.

Hey, check out the 2019 Boston Marathon winners. My man Scott Fauble was first. Out of North America.

[Axelrod]

On 11/29/2021 at 5:23 AM, ▫️ said:

If someone asks you how much Shang Chi made are you going to say 224 million? Of course you’re not. You’re going to give them the worldwide total which is 431 million. You know it. We know it. You and silvermaniac are too much.

Hey, check out the 2019 Boston Marathon winners. My man Scott Fauble was first. Out of North America.

Most any way you look at it, Eternals is going to be a financial disappointment to Marvel, but, on the other hand, comparing "worldwide" totals for films when some of those films include releases in China and some do not is not exactly comparing apples to apples either.