Heritage June Auction 7 7

[Twanj]

On 6/17/2022 at 7:11 AM, drdroom said:

Congrats! Kirby was firing on all cylinders on this story. Even this non-costume page is filled with wonders. 

I'm really loving Chic Stone on Kirby. I was looking at some of the backgrounds in the panels offered yesterday. Soooo great.

[delekkerste]

On 6/17/2022 at 8:35 AM, cstojano said:

I have not seen this chart but it sure does look like the world did end/change with the millennium. What's the explanation for the vastly different pre and post Y2k patterns here? 

There are a multitude of reasons, with technology/communications and globalization certainly resulting in larger and faster movements of capital than ever before (as Bronty alluded to).

That said, I think the biggest reason is very clear:  a serial blowing of asset bubbles by the central banks. They allowed the '90s tech bubble to inflate more or less unabated and flooded the world with liquidity pre-Y2K. When that bubble burst, they very explicitly set out to inflate a housing bubble to patch over the gaping hole in the economy and consumers' balance sheets. And when that inevitably ended in tears, they very explicitly set out to repair peoples' balance sheets again by inflating a stock market bubble through zero-interest rate policy and quantitative easing (money printing).

And, in doing so, they got the market and economy so addicted to a constant drip of monetary heroin (stimulus) that every little wobble in the markets was met with more stimulus, from the original "taper tantrum" in 2013 to the Fed folding its rate normalization plan at the end of 2018 in the face of falling stock prices, to the short-term financing (repo) market simply not working anymore by the fall of 2019, at which point the Fed was forced to re-start the printing press just to keep the heroin-addicted market from going into withdrawal. And then of course what happened in 2020-21...

Most people have no idea just how structurally unhealthy and overvalued the markets had gotten as a result of all of these shenanigans. And now we are paying the price yet again. I know we were starting out from sky-high levels, but, when you blow a $16 trillion (let's not forget the $2 trillion lost in crypto as well as the stocks + bonds shown above) hole in peoples' portfolios in a matter of months, it's going to have an effect, even if many people are better off (for now, anyway) than they were a couple of years ago.

I know it's certainly impacting my OA buying - I have quietly been a fairly busy buyer this year and was buying actively as recently as the ComicConnect sale a week or two ago. But this week's collapse in stock & crypto markets was the tipping point for me and I sat out this Heritage sale entirely and plan to wait on the sidelines here.

Edited June 17, 2022 by delekkerste

[Bronty]

I looked at that a bit yesterday too.    I find the backgrounds were done with single line weights; they are really flat in appearance, outlines basically.    And then the figures fully inked and made three dimensional.   It’s an interesting contrast.    If I’m just reading the page it works great but when I stop and consider the art I find it a touch jarring at times.    That said I like Stone overall for sure.   

[delekkerste]

On 6/17/2022 at 9:01 AM, Bronty said:

Then you hear about a movie trailer coming out, so you go buy 187 copies of Wonderboy and Azzman #1 for $5 each.    Announcements look positive and the movie is coming out soon so you decide to list them two years later for $150 each.   After you sell them out and the movie bombs they come down to $15.

I can't wait for the Wonderboy and Azzman sequel! Buy Buy Buy!

[Bronty]

On 6/17/2022 at 9:21 AM, delekkerste said:

There are a multitude of reasons, with technology/communications and globalization certainly resulting in larger and faster movements of capital than ever before (as Bronty alluded to).

That said, I think the biggest reason is very clear:  a serial blowing of asset bubbles by the central banks. They allowed the '90s tech bubble to inflate more or less unabated and flooded the world with liquidity pre-Y2K. When that bubble burst, they very explicitly set out to inflate a housing bubble to patch over the gaping hole in the economy and consumers' balance sheets. And when that inevitably ended in tears, they very explicitly set out to repair peoples' balance sheets again by inflating a stock market bubble through zero-interest rate policy and quantitative easing (money printing).

And, in doing so, they got the market and economy so addicted to a constant drip of monetary heroin (stimulus) that every little wobble in the markets was met with more stimulus, from the original "taper tantrum" in 2013 to the Fed folding its rate normalization plan at the end of 2018 in the face of falling stock prices, to the short-term financing (repo) market simply not working anymore by the fall of 2019, at which point the Fed was forced to re-start the printing press just to keep the heroin-addicted market from going into withdrawal. And then of course what happened in 2020-21...

Most people have no idea just how structurally unhealthy and overvalued the markets had gotten as a result of all of these shenanigans. And now we are paying the price yet again. I know we were starting out from sky-high levels, but, when you blow a $16 trillion (let's not forget the $2 trillion lost in crypto as well as the stocks + bonds shown above) hole in peoples' portfolios in a matter of months, it's going to have an effect, even if many people are better off (for now, anyway) than they were a couple of years ago.

I know it's certainly impacting my OA buying - I have quietly been a fairly busy buyer this year and was buying actively as recently as last week's ComicConnect sale. But this week's collapse in stock & crypto markets was the tipping point for me and I sat out this Heritage sale entirely and plan to wait on the sidelines for a bit here.

Gene, 

That makes perfect sense.  Why do you think the central banks can and do blow asset bubbles?    In some sense isn’t there more pressure on politicians and institutions  to keep untenable situations afloat precisely as a result of the greater speed of information flow?   

[Bronty]

On 6/17/2022 at 9:23 AM, delekkerste said:

I can't wait for the Wonderboy and Azzman sequel! Buy Buy Buy!

Make sure you “fill the hole” in your collection!!

[MAR1979]

On 6/16/2022 at 11:42 PM, ExNihilo said:

1) Convince your wife you need to remodel the house.
2) Tell the contractors you need a secret space with its own separate entrance.
3) Put all the treasures you can't tell your wife about in said secret space.
4) Invite me over so I can enjoy your personal Batcave.

Put it in a trust so u dont lose it after she wises up and leaves

Edited June 17, 2022 by MAR1979

[Chicago Boy]

On 6/17/2022 at 4:01 AM, Grendel72 said:

216k

Damn !  Thanks.  Great page.

[delekkerste]

On 6/17/2022 at 9:26 AM, Bronty said:

Gene, 

That makes perfect sense.  Why do you think the central banks can and do blow asset bubbles?

When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail. 

[Bronty]

On 6/17/2022 at 9:37 AM, delekkerste said:

When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail. 

Okay, but that doesn’t really address the question of what’s changed, what’s incremental,  in terms of institutional ability/willingness to blow asset bubbles in the last twenty years?

(Hammers have always been hammers and nails have always been nails).

Edited June 17, 2022 by Bronty

[delekkerste]

On 6/17/2022 at 9:42 AM, Bronty said:

Okay, but that doesn’t really address the question of what’s changed, what’s incremental,  in the last twenty years?

Hammers have always been hammers and nails have always been nails.

First, it was an entirely different ballgame pre-1971 (severing the USD's last ties to gold). Look at how NYC property prices actually fell between the 1920s and 1950s and rents stayed about even:  https://www.elikarealestate.com/blog/tracing-buying-real-estate-new-york-past-100-years/

Second, there was the post-1990 Japanese experience - both in terms of seeing the BoJ use unconventional monetary policy (ZIRP, QE) and the desire to not let a multi-decade deflation happen here - which caused the Fed to become more aggressive with the Fed Funds rate starting in the 1990s and using it to specifically prop up asset prices, and later implementing ZIRP, QE and other unconventional monetary policies for similar purposes during/after the GFC. To be sure, there were many other contributing factors, but, that is, painting with the broadest brush, what has made the experience of the past 3 decades what they were.

[Bronty]

On 6/17/2022 at 10:17 AM, delekkerste said:

 

Second, there was the post-1990 Japanese experience - both in terms of seeing the BoJ use unconventional monetary policy (ZIRP, QE) and the desire to not let a multi-decade deflation happen here - which caused the Fed to become more aggressive with the Fed Funds rate starting in the 1990s and using it to specifically prop up asset prices, and later implementing ZIRP, QE and other unconventional monetary policies for similar purposes during/after the GFC. To be sure, there were many other contributing factors, but, that is, painting with the broadest brush, what has made the experience of the past 3 decades what they were.

Okay, that makes sense.    So you're saying unconventional monetary policies worked in the 1990s in Japan and became part of the international playbook.

[cstojano]

Thanks for the replies Bronty and Delekkerste. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the days go this weekend and if the market perceives an overall disappointment (with a few gems) or not. If so, I wonder if the grails will go back in the vault and consignments dry up. 

[vodou]

On 6/17/2022 at 8:35 AM, cstojano said:

What's the explanation for the vastly different pre and post Y2k patterns here? 

ZIRP/NIRP.

[vodou]

nm

Edited June 17, 2022 by vodou
just remembered I’m not helping anymore.

[delekkerste]

On 6/17/2022 at 10:21 AM, Bronty said:

Okay, that makes sense.    So you're saying unconventional monetary policies worked in the 1990s in Japan and became part of the international playbook.

Well, at least the second half of that statement is correct. The first half is...debatable. 

In any case, sorry for the thread derail, back to talking about Deathblow. 

[Bronty]

On 6/17/2022 at 11:09 AM, delekkerste said:

Well, at least the second half of that statement is correct. The first half is...debatable. 

In any case, sorry for the thread derail, back to talking about Deathblow. 

Ok fair.   
 

Deathblow?  Wonderboy and Azzman!

[New School Fool]

On 6/17/2022 at 1:02 PM, jjonahjameson11 said:

Glad to see the Miller DKR cover sold for only $2.4M.  As I stated previously, I think all 4 covers from the series aren’t very good, and this one, though an iconic image, has very little going for it artistically.

I think it's obvious now that a high hammer price and artistic merit do not go hand in hand.

[Hekla]

On 6/17/2022 at 4:51 AM, delekkerste said:

 

<snip>

FWIW, some of my comic book friends tell me there has been more than the usual amount of softness in the market recently - not just at HA yesterday, but, also in other (very) recent sales. Exceptions obviously apply, of course.

I'm a 'sell my comic collection to buy OA' guy and the last 2-3 weeks of ebay sales have been disappointing; around 2/3 of what I had expected based on completed sales the few months prior.

[delekkerste]

On 6/17/2022 at 7:21 AM, vodou said:

I'm so confused. I thought this cover was the pinnacle of the hobby. I thought everybody was rich, seven figure hammers are the new six figure hammers, and had to have this.

Definitely not the pinnacle of the hobby, but, a great, iconic piece which had the potential to do better in the eyes of many. I guess in the end, the X-Men #1 wraparound cover did slightly better (I'd much rather have that one, personally) and we know the Hulk #181 cover will do an enormous price if/when it comes to auction. 

On 6/17/2022 at 7:21 AM, vodou said:

Is it possible that the only organic seven figure hammer in the entire sub-hobby of comic art was...Zeck's SW8?

I asked a number of pages back what the guarantee on this was. Um, I think we know now  

Well, there have only been a handful of public 7-figure sales to date and I don't think we know if any of them went to the house. Even yesterday's sale could have been one guy bidding at that $2M hammer level and maybe we'll even see the piece surface in the coming days/weeks. 

There are so many big 5 and 6 figure OA sales and 5, 6 and 7 figure comic book sales these days that I feel like Occam's Razor would suggest that there's just a lot of people with bags of money that have been spending the past few years. We'll see how long it continues, though, as more and more (paper) wealth keeps getting vaporized in the markets.