X-MEN #1 club 27 27

[LDarkseid1]

Yeah I mean I was more or less joking, but yeah certainly wasn’t implying it was the auction house. I just wish I could quantify what’s happened to this industry. I know the theories and all, but I wish I knew what all this madness was truly due to.

Edited June 22, 2021 by LDarkseid1

[VintageComics]

59 minutes ago, LDarkseid1 said:

Yeah I mean I was more or less joking, but yeah certainly wasn’t implying it was the auction house. I just wish I could quantify what’s happened to this industry. I know the theories and all, but I wish I knew what all this madness was truly due to.

$1Trillion dollars removed from crypto profits in the last month, trillions poured into the economy through stimulus money that some people didn't really need, 1.5 years of pent up energy, the economy reopening and people ready to spend.

It's a perfect storm and it's like the roaring 20's all over again.

BTW, personally I think the X-men #1 CGC 8.0 @ $147K is an outlier. The book looked extremely nice for the grade so it might be an upgrade candidate that BSDs would bid over just like it happened with the AF #14 copies of 2017 that were outliers at the time.

The plateauing price of GSX #1 and other surrounding copies of X-men #1 not selling for new highs would also suggest it's not X-men mania causing the 8.0 price.

[EastEnd1]

4 hours ago, VintageComics said:

BTW, personally I think the X-men #1 CGC 8.0 @ $147K is an outlier. The book looked extremely nice for the grade so it might be an upgrade candidate that BSDs would bid over just like it happened with the AF #14 copies of 2017 that were outliers at the time.

That would need to be one hell of an upgrade candidate to justify $147k of spend, but I'll definitely need to see another similar sale (or two) before I'll buy into this being a "revaluation" of some sort...

[Bluemedgroup]

6 hours ago, VintageComics said:

$1Trillion dollars removed from crypto profits in the last month, trillions poured into the economy through stimulus money that some people didn't really need, 1.5 years of pent up energy, the economy reopening and people ready to spend.

It's a perfect storm and it's like the roaring 20's all over again.

BTW, personally I think the X-men #1 CGC 8.0 @ $147K is an outlier. The book looked extremely nice for the grade so it might be an upgrade candidate that BSDs would bid over just like it happened with the AF #14 copies of 2017 that were outliers at the time.

The plateauing price of GSX #1 and other surrounding copies of X-men #1 not selling for new highs would also suggest it's not X-men mania causing the 8.0 price.

What is BSD?  I googled it and it comes as Blue Screen of Death, Berkeley Software Distribution, Bram Stokers Dracula, Back Seat Driver, and my favorite Bermuda Shorts Day. 

[innocuous]

One day, if I ever sell my raw copy, I plan to use the CGC boards to let everyone know that all G+/VG- copies are rare and highly sought after. 

[LDarkseid1]

32 minutes ago, Bluemedgroup said:

What is BSD?  I googled it and it comes as Blue Screen of Death, Berkeley Software Distribution, Bram Stokers Dracula, Back Seat Driver, and my favorite Bermuda Shorts Day. 

Oh yeah, definitely digging the Bermuda Shorts Day option!

[VintageComics]

4 hours ago, Bluemedgroup said:

What is BSD?  I googled it and it comes as Blue Screen of Death, Berkeley Software Distribution, Bram Stokers Dracula, Back Seat Driver, and my favorite Bermuda Shorts Day. 

It's a term coined on these forums that stands for 'Big Shot Dealer' or 'Big Swingin' D'

 

[gadzukes]

6.0 = $46,000

7.0 = $50,000

7.5 = $75,000

8.0 = $147,000 (13 months ago one sold for $23,500)

 

[Eclipse]

8 hours ago, gadzukes said:

6.0 = $46,000

7.0 = $50,000

7.5 = $75,000

8.0 = $147,000 (13 months ago one sold for $23,500)

 

7.5 sold for 75k? I bought a 7.5 from these very boards 5 years ago for $7500! Nice!

[spreads]

On 6/22/2021 at 3:56 PM, gadzukes said:

6.0 = $46,000

7.0 = $50,000

7.5 = $75,000

8.0 = $147,000 (13 months ago one sold for $23,500)

 

I know, if that doesn't say market crash I don't know what does......I'm not saying X-Men won't continue to climb in value long-term but this book and all the other spec books are due for a correction.  I wouldn't be buying at these prices.....

[Pantodude]

Let’s take a step back and digest.  What is clear now, especially after the Promise auction and other lofty auction results, is that a lot more non-traditional collector types are participating in the market, that they have much deeper pockets than the hobby has generally known pre-pandemic, and that they are competing for the relatively few comic book keys of any era.  With this backdrop, the current valuations across the hobby not only make cents, but appear sustainable and even bullish if the new demand has not achieved equilibrium.  It seems like every month that goes by, comic book keys look better and better as alternative investments, especially vintage keys or otherwise special books (highest grades, peds, etc.).  Hence the beaucoup dough being thrown at special books, from Promise books of GA, to MS5 in 9.8 of BA, and much more in between.  

In other words, this suggests we would have seen these higher valuations years/decages ago (adjusted for inflation, of course) had comic books been universally embraced then, and not just more recently, as alternative investment vehicles (short or long-term).  So it's possible ALL key comic books have been undervalued all the long.  So I don’t see a crash, but a correction is possible if equilibrium has been achieved, unless it hasn’t!  

Edited June 24, 2021 by Pantodude

[Bluemedgroup]

1 hour ago, Pantodude said:

Let’s take a step back and digest.  What is clear now, especially after the Promise auction and other lofty auction results, is that a lot more non-traditional collector types are participating in the market, that they have much deeper pockets than the hobby has generally known pre-pandemic, and that they are competing for the relatively few comic book keys of any era.  With this backdrop, the current valuations across the hobby not only make cents, but appear sustainable and even bullish if the new demand has not achieved equilibrium.  It seems like every month that goes by, comic book keys look better and better as alternative investments, especially vintage keys or otherwise special books.  Hence the beaucoup dough being thrown at special books, from Promise books of GA, to MS5 in 9.8 of BA, and much more in between.  

In other words, this suggests we would have seen these higher valuations years/decages ago (adjusted for inflation, of course) had comic books been universally embraced then, and not just more recently, as alternative investment vehicles (shor or long-term).  So it's possible ALL key comic books have been undervalued all the long.  So I don’t see a crash, but a correction is possible if equilibrium has been achieved, unless it hasn’t!  

With this backdrop, the current valuations across the hobby not only make cents.

I like what you did there!  

[DC#]

Watching these last few minutes of the Comic Connect auction live for 5.5, 8.5 and 9.6.    Just when you think they are about to close another bid pops in - really fun to watch.   The 8.5 just closed for $114k and the 5.5 at $32k.    The 9.6 doesn't want to stop...... 

[Pantodude]

Today, the 8.5 on CC ($114K) sold for less than the 8.0 ($147K) two days ago, and the 7.0 "only" fetched $49.2K on June 18 despite a 7.5 fetching $75K in May.  This suggests the 7.0 was a relative steal.  Assuming the 7.0 should have been at least $65K, how do we make sense of the 4.0 to 6.5 range?  Per GPA, a 4.5 ($17.5K) sold for less than a 4.0 ($24K) in June.  And while a 6.0 sold in May for $46K, a 6.5 sold for "only" $34.8K on June 18.   Looks like someone put a hex on the date June 18th!   So how should we value a 5.0, which last sold in mid-April for $30.1K?  And a 6.0, which last sold in early May for $46K?  

Edited June 25, 2021 by Pantodude

[pins79]

42 minutes ago, Pantodude said:

Today, the 8.5 on CC ($114K) sold for less than the 8.0 ($147K) two days ago, and the 7.0 "only" fetched $49.2K on June 18 despite a 7.5 fetching $75K in May.  This suggests the 7.0 was a relative steal.  Assuming the 7.0 should have been at least $65K, how do we make sense of the 4.0 to 6.5 range?  Per GPA, a 4.5 ($17.5K) sold for less than a 4.0 ($24K) in June.  And while a 6.0 sold in May for $46K, a 6.5 sold for "only" $34.8K on June 18.   Looks like someone put a hex on the date June 18th!   So how should we value a 5.0, which last sold in mid-April for $30.1K?  And a 6.0, which last sold in early May for $46K?  

There’s a 7.0 listed on eBay for $60k OBO,  which would suggest that maybe the $50k sale on HA is fairly accurate, not necessarily a steal. 
 

I personally think the 8.0 sale for 147k was an outlier.  If several 8.0 copies start coming to market, doubt they will achieve similar price right now.  There are just so many copies in this grade region (7.5 to 8.5).  
 

Its always funny to me that when a book underperforms at auction the tendency is to make excuses for the copy (point out flaws), but when one copy does really well, it’s a reflection of the whole market for a book moving up.  crazy how many people started to reprice their copies based on that 8.0 sale.    

 

[Austin_t_a]

2 hours ago, Pantodude said:

Today, the 8.5 on CC ($114K) sold for less than the 8.0 ($147K) two days ago, and the 7.0 "only" fetched $49.2K on June 18 despite a 7.5 fetching $75K in May.  This suggests the 7.0 was a relative steal.  Assuming the 7.0 should have been at least $65K, how do we make sense of the 4.0 to 6.5 range?  Per GPA, a 4.5 ($17.5K) sold for less than a 4.0 ($24K) in June.  And while a 6.0 sold in May for $46K, a 6.5 sold for "only" $34.8K on June 18.   Looks like someone put a hex on the date June 18th!   So how should we value a 5.0, which last sold in mid-April for $30.1K?  And a 6.0, which last sold in early May for $46K?  

At the same time, entry level .5-1.5s still seem to remain stable.  A 1.0 sold for $8k recently on eBay, for instance.  An interesting trend to see high grades slipping (which I'm sure is just a temporary correction and in the long term the previous highs will seem low), while low grades stay high.  I would guess this is because X-Men is becoming popular among younger generations (who tend to have less money on average) while older gens (who tend to be more wealthy) are sticking to stuff like FF and ASM.  I don't have any data to back that up or anything, just a theory.

[Dark Knight]

10 minutes ago, Austin_t_a said:

At the same time, entry level .5-1.5s still seem to remain stable.  A 1.0 sold for $8k recently on eBay, for instance.  An interesting trend to see high grades slipping (which I'm sure is just a temporary correction and in the long term the previous highs will seem low), while low grades stay high.  I would guess this is because X-Men is becoming popular among younger generations (who tend to have less money on average) while older gens (who tend to be more wealthy) are sticking to stuff like FF and ASM.  I don't have any data to back that up or anything, just a theory.

Not necessarily.  I'm under 40 and I still value FF 1 and Hulk 1 on top of XM 1. My favorite will always be ASM in silver.  XM 1 for me has never been high on my wantlist, it was more of a "I can get that book later" sort of thing.

[VintageComics]

On 6/24/2021 at 10:28 AM, Pantodude said:

Let’s take a step back and digest.  What is clear now, especially after the Promise auction and other lofty auction results, is that a lot more non-traditional collector types are participating in the market, that they have much deeper pockets than the hobby has generally known pre-pandemic, and that they are competing for the relatively few comic book keys of any era.  With this backdrop, the current valuations across the hobby not only make cents, but appear sustainable and even bullish if the new demand has not achieved equilibrium.  It seems like every month that goes by, comic book keys look better and better as alternative investments, especially vintage keys or otherwise special books (highest grades, peds, etc.).  Hence the beaucoup dough being thrown at special books, from Promise books of GA, to MS5 in 9.8 of BA, and much more in between.  

In other words, this suggests we would have seen these higher valuations years/decages ago (adjusted for inflation, of course) had comic books been universally embraced then, and not just more recently, as alternative investment vehicles (short or long-term).  So it's possible ALL key comic books have been undervalued all the long.  So I don’t see a crash, but a correction is possible if equilibrium has been achieved, unless it hasn’t!  

This is a really good observation / theory.

You're saying that since comics are no longer a fringe hobby, demand has multiplied while supply has stayed relatively steady.

Combine that with $1TRIL in crypto profits removed from the crypto market, trillions in stimulus money floating around and relatively low certification population (especially compared to baseball cards) and you have a perfect storm.

[KCOComics]

31 minutes ago, Batmanis#1 said:

I see a slight correction but remember there has been zero new movies or cartoons or anything out of Disney since the Covid-19 crisis. They are going to come back in an intense way they spent billions to have the rights. There is no chance they just sit there and don't promote these superheroes the the maximum of their ability. I don't see the comic market crashing there are always ups and downs been that way for decades. There will always be investors in all hobbies now like in 10 years and it's just the way it roles.

This is not sports there is no new Babe Ruth or Mickey Mantle in the future the heroes we have are the ones we have. No new Batman or Spiderman.

This is what I think about. 

Jordan is the greatest and having his rookie card must be really special for a card collector. But he hasn't taken a jump shot in 20+ years.  My kids will only know MJ through highlights and my stories.  Spidey and Batman keep making comics, graphic novels, video games and movies. 

Now, I can appreciate it's a different market, but I feel like you are seeing younger generations, who grew up watching Avengers movies instead of reading Avengers comics, getting into collecting. It gives me hope for the future of the hobby.

[Hulksdaddy1]

Low, but decent result considering how fugly this book is.

https://www.comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAUCTIONS%2FPREVIEW.ASP%3F_SORT%3DYES%26returning%3D1%26returning%3D1%2C%2B1%2C%2B1%2C%2B1%2C%2B1%2C%2B1%26code%3D2021june%26session%3D1%26f1%3Da.MaxBid%26ODire1%3DDESC%26f2%3Da.EndDate%26ODire2%3DASC%26f3%3Di.Type%2C%2Bi.Title%2C%2Bi.IssueNumber%26ODire3%3DASC%26safilter%3D1%23Item_1482966&id=1482966&itemType=0#detail

 

Should have removed the staples and C&P'd it before grading. 

Edited June 26, 2021 by Hulksdaddy1