Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[DC#]

On 6/22/2022 at 2:58 AM, Microchip said:

I'm keen to see the latest summary.   It's safe to say I'm expecting to see Red Cross the board.

Here are the Session 1 results.   Highly unlikely I am going to recap the later sessions this time....but we will see.    And you are getting a lot of red.   You can also just see the lower values between last and 90 Day on the GPA data.   

 

[KirbyTown]

On 6/24/2022 at 1:25 PM, DC# said:

Here are the Session 1 results.   Highly unlikely I am going to recap the later sessions this time....but we will see.    And you are getting a lot of red.   You can also just see the lower values between last and 90 Day on the GPA

 

Thank you so much for sharing this effort with us.

Edited June 24, 2022 by KirbyTown

[1Cool]

Wow - that is a sea of red on that table.  Quite a few books dropped by 30 - 40%!

[DC#]

On 6/24/2022 at 1:23 PM, 1Cool said:

Wow - that is a sea of red on that table.  Quite a few books dropped by 30 - 40%!

I imagine the Copper Modern sales in the later sessions will be even worse.    And I say that as someone with some books for sale in those auctions 

[Rob]

When we saw prices rise just as quickly, are you really surprised they would drop just as fast?

[KirbyTown]

On 6/24/2022 at 1:25 PM, DC# said:

Here are the Session 1 results.   Highly unlikely I am going to recap the later sessions this time....but we will see.    And you are getting a lot of red.   You can also just see the lower values between last and 90 Day on the GPA data.   

And this is the top tier stuff, not the garbage level stuff that I rant about.

[jsilverjanet]

one thing to note about comparing prices, is that there are some fees missing (buyer's premium, taxes etc) and when looking at a bigger picture, the $ are around 2021 12 month averages still. While we aren't seeing the insane prices of 90 days ago, the prices we are seeing aren't pre 2020 (yet)

also the last sate, and the 90 day average is composed of different inputs (ebay, heritage) etc. Further not every copy (especially in the silver/bronze) is the same. page quality and presentation factor greatly in how on 8.5 does vs another.

[KirbyTown]

On 6/24/2022 at 4:41 PM, jsilverjanet said:

While we aren't seeing the insane prices of 90 days ago, the prices we are seeing aren't pre 2020 (yet)

I agree with yet! 📉

[jsilverjanet]

On 6/24/2022 at 4:47 PM, KirbyTown said:

I agree with yet! 📉

it may happen but i don't think quite so fast, and yet there are some that will still perform well

while the economy isn't doing well, the same can be said for Marvel/Disney. They are a little disjointed right now, once they are back on track, will prices spike up? They will reveal phase 5 in September. Where will be then. I thought there was a lot more uncertainty about a week ago, but now I just think I missed the rush of people over paying for graded books that weren't on the market. As CGC is shipping more and more, expect there to be a greater availability and quantity meet demand that wasn't there before. I see videos/pictures of more and more CGC books being received.

 

[DC#]

On 6/24/2022 at 2:41 PM, jsilverjanet said:

one thing to note about comparing prices, is that there are some fees missing (buyer's premium, taxes etc) and when looking at a bigger picture, the $ are around 2021 12 month averages still. While we aren't seeing the insane prices of 90 days ago, the prices we are seeing aren't pre 2020 (yet)

also the last sate, and the 90 day average is composed of different inputs (ebay, heritage) etc. Further not every copy (especially in the silver/bronze) is the same. page quality and presentation factor greatly in how on 8.5 does vs another.

Someone can correct me if I am wrong - but I believe GPA includes buyer premiums for any sales platforms they track.  I know they include them for Heritage sales.    So comiclink results should be pretty apples to apples 

[jsilverjanet]

On 6/24/2022 at 4:52 PM, DC# said:

Someone can correct me if I am wrong - but I believe GPA includes buyer premiums for any sales platforms they track.  I know they include them for Heritage sales.    So comiclink results should be pretty apples to apples 

I was not aware of that. That would be great to know that it's included.

[KirbyTown]

On 6/24/2022 at 4:52 PM, DC# said:

Someone can correct me if I am wrong - but I believe GPA includes buyer premiums for any sales platforms they track.  I know they include them for Heritage sales.    So comiclink results should be pretty apples to apples 

Consistency yes, and Heritage makes it easy:

[Poekaymon]

On 6/24/2022 at 4:23 PM, 1Cool said:

Wow - that is a sea of red on that table.  Quite a few books dropped by 30 - 40%!

My reaction, as always:

1. Briefly get concerned at the shock and awe.

2. Look at results for a few issues I own.

3. See that they are still double or triple 2019-2020 prices.

4. Return to General.

[KirbyTown]

On 6/24/2022 at 4:52 PM, jsilverjanet said:

it may happen but i don't think quite so fast, and yet there are some that will still perform well

while the economy isn't doing well, the same can be said for Marvel/Disney. They are a little disjointed right now, once they are back on track, will prices spike up? They will reveal phase 5 in September. Where will be then. I thought there was a lot more uncertainty about a week ago, but now I just think I missed the rush of people over paying for graded books that weren't on the market. As CGC is shipping more and more, expect there to be a greater availability and quantity meet demand that wasn't there before. I see videos/pictures of more and more CGC books being received.

 

The daily-renewed six month to two year glut of coming slabs provides ever present proof about the incoming endless supply of slabbed comic books. This supply is apart from the incoming dump of speculative raw hoards from those Fools who rightly choose to liquidate their failed gamble before their car, dwelling etc. Illegitimate demand will disappear, but both the fresh stuff and the glut of speculative raw supply will always remain. Not enough people are legitimately interested in back issue comic books, and there's now access to more supply than ever and always will be, and as long as people are submitting to CGC we have hard proof that it's not going to stop. I mentioned the numbers in a previous post, but it's 8 million total, 1.5 million last 12 months, 1,200 wolverines a year, 300 caps. Those numbers don't work even if speculative demand remains let alone disappears.

 

Edited June 24, 2022 by KirbyTown

[Dergrosse13]

On 6/24/2022 at 12:21 PM, KirbyTown said:

The daily-renewed six month to two year glut of coming slabs provides ever present proof about the incoming endless supply of slabbed comic books. This supply is apart from the incoming dump of speculative raw hoards from those Fools who rightly choose to liquidate their failed gamble before their car, dwelling etc. Illegitimate demand will disappear, but both the fresh stuff and the glut of speculative raw supply will always remain. Not enough people are legitimately interested in back issue comic books, and there's now access to more supply than ever and always will be, and as long as people are submitting to CGC we have hard proof that it's not going to stop. I mentioned the numbers in a previous post, but it's 8 million total, 1.5 million last 12 months, 1,200 wolverines a year, 300 caps. Those numbers don't work even if speculative demand remains let alone disappears.

 

If this is the case, does it counsel in favor of pursuing golden/early silver age books now, since presumably (maybe I’m wrong) there can’t be nearly as big of a glut of newly-slabbed books of that vintage about to hit the market, as compared to late silver, bronze, copper, modern, etc.?

[dikran]

On 6/24/2022 at 9:24 PM, Dergrosse13 said:

If this is the case, does it counsel in favor of pursuing golden/early silver age books now, since presumably (maybe I’m wrong) there can’t be nearly as big of a glut of newly-slabbed books of that vintage about to hit the market, as compared to late silver, bronze, copper, modern, etc.?

Well Economy tier (pre 1975) just restarted grading and shipping, so if anything the glut of slabs will be in that age range. Modern slabs have been shipping quite regularly in the 2 month range for a while. 

[jaxcomics]

On 6/24/2022 at 9:37 PM, dikran1 said:

Well Economy tier (pre 1975) just restarted grading and shipping, so if anything the glut of slabs will be in that age range. Modern slabs have been shipping quite regularly in the 2 month range for a while. 

That's because those modern books are easy/fast to grade and are an absolute cash cow, so it's very much in the interest of the grading companies to keep that line moving as quickly as possible. People submitting 25+ copies of every variant cover imaginable on a daily basis are the real "glut", and that's a pyramid that's going to eventually topple over. How many copies of bronze/silver/gold books get encased in plastic doesn't change the overall number of those books; natural attrition (floods/fires/angry ex-wives) lowers that amount every year. The actual amount of people who will continue to collect vintage titles over the coming years and decades is something no one knows for sure - and something that's sure to wax and wane like everything else - but it seems likely that there's going to be about as much demand for 12 different variants of the #1 issue of some current random title as there is for the Adventurers #1 "Skeleton Cover" that American Comics suckered me into paying $50 for back in 1986, shiny plastic casing or no. Maybe even less. 

[Beige]

On paper the next Heritage auction tomorrow looks like a bloodbath - however it is such a weak auction - very few books of high quality, that it will be difficult to tell.

I think there is an Avengers #1 7.0 and Tec #38 1.5 as possibly the 2 'best books'

Lot of modern drek, and a heap of ungraded stuff.

May see a few buyers step in as some books are at 2020 prices with 24 - 36 hrs left.

There is a feeling that maybe global economies have accepted what they have to do, and share prices are beginning to stabilise after a horror month. Oil is down. The ASX was actually UP 1.6% this week.

My feeling is that for genuine key books, we are near the bottom - at 2021 prices, and that things will settle.

For one off movie books and books with thousands of high grade copies - not so much.

This weekend may see the best chance for a few bargains, before prices claw back a bit over the rest of the year.

[DC#]

On 6/24/2022 at 6:59 PM, Beige said:

On paper the next Heritage auction tomorrow looks like a bloodbath - however it is such a weak auction - very few books of high quality, that it will be difficult to tell.

I think there is an Avengers #1 7.0 and Tec #38 1.5 as possibly the 2 'best books'

Lot of modern drek, and a heap of ungraded stuff.

May see a few buyers step in as some books are at 2020 prices with 24 - 36 hrs left.

There is a feeling that maybe global economies have accepted what they have to do, and share prices are beginning to stabilise after a horror month. Oil is down. The ASX was actually UP 1.6% this week.

My feeling is that for genuine key books, we are near the bottom - at 2021 prices, and that things will settle.

For one off movie books and books with thousands of high grade copies - not so much.

This weekend may see the best chance for a few bargains, before prices claw back a bit over the rest of the year.

I was thinking the prior weekend on Heritage (6/19-6/20) was going to be soft given how low the bids were going into Saturday.   But most of the Silver Marvel I was tracking ended up pretty close to the Current/90 day pricing zone.    There were a few books on this Clink Session 1 that were meaningful books that were way, way low in the waning hours.    In the final minutes, I started to throw bids at things that I wasn't really in the market for because they were so below current values.    

As I recall - the weekends right after the last big Heritage Platinum session (and the big Promise Collection sale) were a bit slow/soft.   Almost like a bit of a breather for both Heritage and the buyers. 

Edited June 25, 2022 by DC#

[Microchip]

On 6/25/2022 at 4:25 AM, DC# said:

Here are the Session 1 results.   Highly unlikely I am going to recap the later sessions this time....but we will see.    And you are getting a lot of red.   You can also just see the lower values between last and 90 Day on the GPA data.   

 

All the uber keys either held their ground, or kept climbing.

The surprising result for me, was the SS #4, 9.6.  At $11,250 thats an absolutely giveaway price by recent levels.   Either no one was is in the market, or people weren't paying attention.   The prices for FF #48-50, and SS #1,3,4 have looked to be reasonably linked lately.   All going up at similar rates, albeit at different price levels.  This sale makes me wonder if the Surfer train has slowed up for the time being.