Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[Microchip]

On 5/1/2022 at 1:30 PM, alexgross.com said:

On 5/1/2022 at 10:50 AM, Poekaymon said:

I think it was clear he meant 50% of the gains, not that it doubled and then halved.  So in your example it's $150 now--still up overall.  And "still up overall" describes the vast majority of books to this day.  (Many of which, by more than 50% as well.)  For instance, at the end of 2020 the 365 day average for Hulk 181 9.0 was $4600.  So call me when it's back below that.  

thank you @Poekaymon yes i was talking about losing half of the net you just made in 2021 when the price of your book(s) went nuts, not losing your entire profit. take xmen 1 for example. it was a $7500 book in 5.0 in 2020. in 2021 it reached a peak of $30,000! yes, a 400% increase. this year the two gpa sales are 25k and 23k. so, you may have lost a bit off the peak of that book last year, though not that much. but you certainly are still in the black in a big way if you bought the book in 2020 or prior. my point being, on alot of these books that are indeed down from last years INSANE runups, we are still in solidly profitable territory in terms of 2020 and before. how much overall avg price declines may continue remains to be seen. i suspect it's about hit the limit. summer is often a time when prices move up again. although with inflation and world events, this year is really up for grabs. 

2021 was just icing, and the cherry on the cake for the majority of performing books, after removing the very top and bottom tow tiers of performance?

What are our real arbiters of the market, when there are so many ways to slice it from comic title/comic artist/comic age perspective.   There's a lot of 'mini markets' reflecting area's of collecting with their own rules.  Arguably, 181 has to be put aside in it's own singular category.   After that, I would suggest splitting the views of the market down MCU lines.   This is going to be the dominant force for the next 2 decades, with maturing audiences, and another decade of movies in front of us.  

With new milestones for the very top of the hobby, (thank you@VintageComics) we need to drop the insecurity complex about the hobby as a valid investment field, in the wider market.   $5.3m says yes it is, way more than anything to the contrary.   And It will only keep broadening.  Roy, you need to get on the needs for a Vinnie style interview on the sale.   The collecting hobby in on a precipice of going mainstream.   

 

 

[VintageComics]

On 5/1/2022 at 3:20 AM, Microchip said:

The collecting hobby in on a precipice of going mainstream.   

I think the hobby has been mainstream for a while now.

People no longer get bullied and beat up for being comic nerds anymore like I was when I was a kid. It's a badge of honor now. 

When it went mainstream is up for debate, but I'd say the MCU had the most to do with it, starting with the success of Iron Man in 2008. 

Before then it was still a bit of a counter culture thing, but after 2008 the MCU took off, and price records started being broken price wise fairly regularly.

We had an AF #15 9.4 sell for $200K which was a big eye opener, shortly after that an Action #1 CGC 6.0 sold for $320K, etc.

Before that things still moved relatively slowly. 

Edited May 1, 2022 by VintageComics

[darkstar]

On 5/1/2022 at 1:13 PM, Heavyheavyheavy said:

I doubt your getting beat up had much to do with comics 

Kids who publicly display interests that are not mainstream or the most popular regularly get destroyed by their peers. 

[DC#]

Here is my Dow 30 updated for April (for those interested in the methodology I have added the original post in the quote below).      

Silver was up 10% vs April 21

Bronze was up 1% vs April 21

Copper/Modern was down 16% vs April 21

In aggregate up 4%

 

 

 

On 12/23/2021 at 2:36 PM, DC# said:

I finally finished my version of the "DOW 30" for comic books for those interested in a more aggregate look at the trends.    I am sure any statistician here can find the errors in the development my sample pool but it is what it is.    Here is the general breakdown:

• 10 books each from Silver, Bronze, and Copper/Modern and 3 CGC grades per book.   So total view is across 90 graded books.
• I tried to pick titles/issues at grades that had sufficient sales velocity - and picked books that have been consistent "key issues" over the years (no hot today - dead tomorrow).    Balance of big keys and every-day keys at a range of values.    So there is not an Avengers 1 or X-men 1 in 9.6 for example.   But for Modern/Copper included a lot of 9.8s since that is really where the market is.   
• This is a quarterly snapshot (Jan, April, July, Oct) between 2016 and 2021 so it won't necessarily show the monthly peaks.   Took the average of all sales in the month of Jan/Apri/Jul/Oct - except in Modern where I took the average of the last 2 sales in that month (just too many damn copies sold per month and I ran out of steam).   If there was no sales in that month - I took the last sale regardless of what month it occurred.    

Here are the books/grades this tracks (apologies to Gold collectors)

Silver

• Avengers 1 5.0/4.0/3.0
• X-Men 1 4.5/4.0/2.5
• Tales of Suspense 39  5.0/3.5/3/0
• Fantastic Four 48  8.0/6.0/4.0
• Batman 181 6.0/4.0/3.0
• Daredevil 1. 6.0/5.0/3.5
• Spider-man 50  8.0/6.0/4.0
• Silver Surfer 1 8.0/6.0/4.0
• Iron Man 1 8.0/6.0/4.0
• Flash 139  7.0/6.0/5.0

Bronze

• Hulk 181 9.2/8.0/6/0
• Giant Size X-men 1 9.4/8.5/6.5
• Marvel Spotlight 5. 8.5/7.5/6.5
• Spider-man 129   8.5/7.5/6.5
• Tomb of Dracula 10   9.2/8.0/6.5
• House of Secrets 92.  8.5/7.0/4.0
• DC Comics Presents 26.  9.8/9.6/9.2
• Batman 232.  8.5/7.5/6.0
• Iron Man 55.  9.4/8.5/7.5
• Star Wars 1.  9.8/9.6/9.0

Copper/Modern

• Spider-man 300.  9.8/9.4/9.0
• Ultimate Fallout 4.  9.8/9.6/9.4
• Batman Adventures 12  9.8/9.6/9.4
• X-men 266. 9.8/9.4/9.2
• Young Avengers 1.  9.8/9.6/9.4
• New Mutants 98.   9.8/9.6/9.4
• Swamp Thing 37. 9.8/9.6/9.4
• Edge of Spider-verse 2.  9.8/9.6/9.4
• Hulk 340.  9.8/9.6/9.4
• Wolverine 1 (88).  9.8/9.6/9.4

 

Overall this analysis looks a lot like the performance chart of any single book you look at on GPA.    The January results will be an indicator of much of a correction the market started to show as of Oct.     The returns here have been very strong since 2016 with a bit of a pause in 2019.  Even if 2021 had been flat-ish it would have been a good 5 year run.  

 

 

 

[VintageComics]

On 5/1/2022 at 6:09 PM, darkstar said:

Kids who publicly display interests that are not mainstream or the most popular regularly get destroyed by their peers. 

Some of my bullies, who I went to school with from grade 1 - 12 apologized to me for bullying me at a high school reunion 30 years later and even said it was related to my love for comics.

Two of them are high school teachers now. Take that Karma, biznatches. 

 

[SuperBird]

Golden Age comics have certainly not slowed down, fwiw. 

[Microchip]

On 5/2/2022 at 9:54 AM, SuperBird said:

Golden Age comics have certainly not slowed down, fwiw. 

But has the field tightened in the GA?

SA - static in the terms of what are the big sellers.   No one was holding deep runs of Avenger's #8, though everyone should have seen FF Silver Surfer issues as bluechip for future prospects.

BA - wow, just wow!

CA - a close second the the BA in terms of movement.

 

[SuperBird]

On 5/1/2022 at 10:11 PM, Microchip said:

But has the field tightened in the GA?

SA - static in the terms of what are the big sellers.   No one was holding deep runs of Avenger's #8, though everyone should have seen FF Silver Surfer issues as bluechip for future prospects.

BA - wow, just wow!

CA - a close second the the BA in terms of movement.

 

GA hasn't tightened at all from what I've seen. All books in all grades going up. (aside from the genres like westerns, etc, but I never pay attention to those.)

[lou_fine]

On 5/1/2022 at 7:11 PM, Microchip said:

But has the field tightened in the GA?

 

On 5/2/2022 at 6:31 AM, SuperBird said:

GA hasn't tightened at all from what I've seen. All books in all grades going up. (aside from the genres like westerns, etc, but I never pay attention to those.)

Yes, if anything, GA has expanded way beyond the big two (i..e. DC and Timely) with some of the biggest percentage gains in some of the 2nd and 3rd tier publishers, especially in some of the lower and mid grade copies due to their affordability.  

Heck, it's even gone into the pre-heroes with some of the early DC New Adventure/Adventure and More Fun issues selling for 20+ plus condition guide in raw condtion and including a few of them in Incomplete or restored condition.  

 

Edited May 2, 2022 by lou_fine

[Sweet Lou 14]

It just seems to me that the money keeps going to new places because everyone is looking for something "undervalued" and that means they're turning over every rock.

Just looking at my own collection, high-grade Silver Age Marvel books have always been the "blue chips" but the range of four- and five-figure books has expanded quite a bit in terms of:

• Time period (pre-hero Atlas / Marvel and even pre-implosion books on one end, and well into the Bronze and Copper Ages on the other)
• Genre (significant spikes in the genres that are getting MCU attention like the 1950s Black Knight series or Bronze Age horror, but also some upticks for key books in other genres like western , war, and even romance)
• Grade (interest in low- to mid-grade books has just skyrocketed)
• etc.

Not every one of these strategies is going to turn out to be a winner (personally, I would not recommend "investing" in a 6.0 copy of Spidey #300) but we're in a period right now in which there aren't many bargains to be found because everyone is going after everything.  The question is, what will happen if/when there is a market correction.  My suspicion is that the traditional blue chips will hold their value much better than the other stuff, i.e. the last books to see their values rise will be the first to see them fall.

For the record, that is not me coming out as a bear ... it's just a thought experiment.

[Dark Knight]

When we first saw the sky high prices of silver age books in 2021, I predicted that golden age would be next for the bump up. Looks like it played out well this year. 

Overall, the comic market is strong for silver and golden age without any signs of slowing down. Sure we can currently see that silver age books have taken a slight correction from the highs of last year, but overall still strong. Seems that bronze age books and newer have taken a turn and dipping downward. 

 

[Poekaymon]

On 5/1/2022 at 1:30 PM, VintageComics said:

People no longer get bullied and beat up for being comic nerds anymore like I was when I was a kid. It's a badge of honor now. 

 

On 5/1/2022 at 6:09 PM, darkstar said:

Kids who publicly display interests that are not mainstream or the most popular regularly get destroyed by their peers. 

My take is that it depends more on the person.  In this case, it's correlation without causation.  Someone who says they were bullied for liking comics... well, my own suspicion is that they had other traits that made them a target for bullies.  Things maybe that went hand in hand with comics or reading, but not the comics themselves (regardless of what the bullies may have said then or later).  

I was an 80s kid and I grew up in a tough area.  Comics were by no means mainstream at the time, as far as I know, and certainly not where I lived.  I openly went to a bookstore to buy comics after school, and openly took them to school, and I also was consistently top of the class on tests, but I was never once bullied or even made fun of for my comics or my good grades.  But that's probably because I was also a bit of an athlete and a class clown and was generally popular, even with the tough kids.  I was even in a D&D club which is about as nerdy as you can get--at least one or two levels from comics in Dante's Nine Circles of Nerd.  Meanwhile, I had friends who were bullied and picked on for all sorts of stuff.  Bringing autobots to school, wearing thick glasses, just acting awkwardly in general, etc.  

I just really don't think anyone was actually singling out comic collectors.  Nerds are just easy targets in general, and many nerds happen to like stuff like comics.       

Edited May 2, 2022 by Poekaymon

[VintageComics]

On 5/2/2022 at 5:50 PM, Poekaymon said:

My take is that it depends more on the person.  In this case, it's correlation without causation.  Someone who says they were bullied for liking comics... well, my own suspicion is that they had other traits that made them a target for bullies.  Things maybe that went hand in hand with comics or reading, but not the comics themselves (regardless of what the bullies may have said then or later).  

I was an 80s kid and I grew up in a tough area.  Comics were by no means mainstream at the time, as far as I know, and certainly not where I lived.  I openly went to a bookstore to buy comics after school, and openly took them to school, and I also was consistently top of the class on tests, but I was never once bullied or even made fun of for my comics or my good grades.  But that's probably because I was also a bit of an athlete and a class clown and was generally popular, even with the tough kids.  I was even in a D&D club which is about as nerdy as you can get--at least one or two levels from comics in Dante's Nine Circles of Nerd.  Meanwhile, I had friends who were bullied and picked on for all sorts of stuff.  Bringing autobots to school, wearing thick glasses, just acting awkwardly in general, etc.  

I just really don't think anyone was actually singling out comic collectors.  Nerds are just easy targets in general, and many nerds happen to like stuff like comics.       

When my neighbor down the street who is now a high school teacher apologized at the reunion, he singled out comics as one of the reasons. 

Not that he hated comics. He probably just picked on me because I was a nerd.

You're probably right, it was probably my personality that got me bullied. But I was in introvert because I was immersed in comics and other things I liked and not being popular.

You were a jock and popular.

It's hard to imagine you can relate to my POV. 

 

[Microchip]

On 5/3/2022 at 4:05 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

It just seems to me that the money keeps going to new places because everyone is looking for something "undervalued" and that means they're turning over every rock.

Just looking at my own collection, high-grade Silver Age Marvel books have always been the "blue chips" but the range of four- and five-figure books has expanded quite a bit in terms of:

• Time period (pre-hero Atlas / Marvel and even pre-implosion books on one end, and well into the Bronze and Copper Ages on the other)
• Genre (significant spikes in the genres that are getting MCU attention like the 1950s Black Knight series or Bronze Age horror, but also some upticks for key books in other genres like western , war, and even romance)
• Grade (interest in low- to mid-grade books has just skyrocketed)
• etc.

Not every one of these strategies is going to turn out to be a winner (personally, I would not recommend "investing" in a 6.0 copy of Spidey #300) but we're in a period right now in which there aren't many bargains to be found because everyone is going after everything.  The question is, what will happen if/when there is a market correction.  My suspicion is that the traditional blue chips will hold their value much better than the other stuff, i.e. the last books to see their values rise will be the first to see them fall.

For the record, that is not me coming out as a bear ... it's just a thought experiment.

A market correction, or a period of stagnation?  Comic historically have just lumbered along.   Though to add to your list, it's fair to argue the CGC populations represent a good portion of the top end books out there.   I know there a lots of well known exceptions to what I've just said, particularly in the GA.  But the CGC census has to be representative of what is out there in terms of a condition profile.   5 copies of FF#1 in 9.4 won't suddenly appear, but 10 copies of 7.0 to 2.0 will, over a given time period.

The other thing is, what is blue chip does move and change, some are perennials, but there will be some new additions, and some drop offs.   Some of the new ones, are the big BA, and CA books.  Some drop offs would include the books hyped pre-movie, and then never re-fired after the movie launch.   

The grade range in the market is interesting.  I see so much movement in grades linked to a price bracket.   Without proper analysis, big books under a certain $ threshold get very competitively chased, then when you move the same book in higher grades, the price starts to flatten out.   Particularly when the 9.4-9.6 is looking north of $2,000-3,000.   The mid grades are definitely a more dynamic area.  

 

[DC#]

Looking through the Clink results tonight after the first round of Session 3 and saw this....holy karaoke Batman......this is $600 higher than the 2021 peak.   Did someone think they were buying a Canadian price variant?    90 day average for a newsstand is $2300.   

[Courageous Cat]

On 5/3/2022 at 3:29 AM, DC# said:

Looking through the Clink results tonight after the first round of Session 3 and saw this....holy karaoke Batman......this is $600 higher than the 2021 peak.   Did someone think they were buying a Canadian price variant?    90 day average for a newsstand is $2300.   

well, to be fair, it is the 2nd highest graded

[lou_fine]

On 4/30/2022 at 10:38 AM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

The big auction houses will tell you when the stock market crashes, investors flee into collectibles.

All I can say is that it's on days like this when the naysayers say that comic books are not true investments like what equity stocks and bonds are that I am just super glad that the values on my vintage comic book collection seems to be holding up much better, and in fact, probably good enough to fund a nice portion of my retirement going forward.  

[blazingbob]

On 5/5/2022 at 5:05 PM, lou_fine said:

All I can say is that it's on days like this when the naysayers say that comic books are not true investments like what equity stocks and bonds are that I am just super glad that the values on my vintage comic book collection seems to be holding up much better, and in fact, probably good enough to fund a nice portion of my retirement going forward.  

Until the "comic collection" shows up in a bank account it is all financial speculation on what it can fund. 

My business inventory may be worth millions but that doesn't mean I can sell it all for that.  

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by blazingbob

[Robot Man]

On 5/6/2022 at 9:28 AM, blazingbob said:

Until the "comic collection" shows up in a bank account it is all financial speculation on what it can fund. 

My business inventory may be worth millions but that doesn't mean I can sell it all for that.  

 

Indeed. It is only worth what a VERY limited group of people in this world will pay for them.

When I get told at a show that something is not worth my price, I often agree with them. I tell them “take it to 7-11 and see if they will give you a carton of milk for it”.

So it comes down to the buyer and seller to agree on a price that is fair to both parties. Often, I’d much rather take it home than sell it for less.

So what’s it worth? Not much to most in this world…

[Microchip]

On 5/7/2022 at 2:28 AM, blazingbob said:

On 5/6/2022 at 7:05 AM, lou_fine said:

All I can say is that it's on days like this when the naysayers say that comic books are not true investments like what equity stocks and bonds are that I am just super glad that the values on my vintage comic book collection seems to be holding up much better, and in fact, probably good enough to fund a nice portion of my retirement going forward.  

Until the "comic collection" shows up in a bank account it is all financial speculation on what it can fund. 

My business inventory may be worth millions but that doesn't mean I can sell it all for that.  

I get your emails, I know you're not going to go hungry any time soon.

Every market is susceptible to the same basic forces, over-supply will lower prices, there's nothing startling about that.